Post 2nd round ElectionsPower Structure in Egypt– Post Elections

Draft 2.0

This is a draft - please let me know your thoughts /comments so I can update the document

The purpose of this document is to highlight some facts about the political power structure in Egypt,

This document provides a map of the main power centers in Egypt including the Hire/Fire command chain post 2nd round elections and the latest announcements from SCAF,

The document proposes some objectives for the post elections (transition) period,

This document has the initial power center analysis (pre elections, as well as the two post elections scenarios (moved to the end) for reference.

Both are fighting to dominate Egypt for a long period..

And both are welling to do WHATEVER It takes to control Egypt

If you want the best for your future,If you want hope for your kids, and the best for Egypt..

Let us continue to balance the powerand establish a creative conflict between the two powers

If you want the best for your future,If you want hope for your kids, and the best for Egypt..

Let us continue to balance the powerand establish a creative conflict between the two powers

Remember what we planned for before the Elections -

“In any scenario, El-Thawra has to play a major role to defend the Loser and control the Winner’s power grab during the transition period.”

Now, I think we should support SCAF to make sure they have enough power to stay in the game

President

SCAF

InformalPowers

(no hire /fire Authority)

Defense Minister

ParliamentJudicial

Constitutional Court

Admin.Court Constitutional

Panel(100 Person)

Prime Minister

National Security

Interior affairs

Official Media

Corrupt Business

Corrupt officials

Corrupt Police

MB Militia

Ultras Melyoneyyat

Private Media

Intelligence

Presidential Control

SCAF

MB

People/Revolution

International /regional Influence is outside the focus of this analysis

Hire or Fire Authority

Sabba7y/A.Fotoh

Hir

e /

Fir

e

Fire only

Hire

President

InformalPowers

(no hire /fire Authority)

ParliamentJudicial

Constitutional Court

Admin.Court Constitutional

Panel(100 Person)

Prime Minister

Interior affairs

Official Media

Corrupt Business

Corrupt officials

Corrupt Police

MB Militia

Ultras Melyoneyyat

Private Media

Presidential Control

SCAF

MB

People/Revolution

Hire or Fire Authority

Sabba7y/A.Fotoh

Hir

e /

Fir

e

Fire only

Hire

Egypt’s Selected Scenario – Before SCAF Announcement

SCAF

Defense Minister

Intelligence

National Security

SCAF and moving to MB

Thawra has to support SCAF to protect the constitution and people’s freedom (my

proposed plan – pre elections)

This is the scenario we expected (if Moursi won) withoutthe recent SCAF announcements. In yellow the big yellow bubble on the left was our plan if Moursi got elected.

PresidentInformalPowers

(no hire /fire Authority)

Parliament

Judicial

Constitutional Court

Admin.CourtConstitutional

Panel(100 Person)

Corrupt Business

Corrupt officials

Corrupt Police

MB Militia

Ultras Melyoneyyat

Private Media

Sabba7y/A.Fotoh

Egypt’s Selected Scenario – After SCAF Announcement

SCAF

Defense Minister

Prime Minister

Interior affairs

Official Media

Intelligence

National Security

Presidential Control

SCAF

MB

People/Revolution

Hire or Fire Authority

SCAF and moving to MB

Thawra has to support SCAF to protect minorities, constitution, and people’s freedom

Hire

SCAF was proactive (did not wait for our support) to protect themselves from MB (expected). I truly believe it is the best for Egypt. This is the power of the creative balance between the two powers. It puts both of them in defensive mode that helps Egypt’s cause.

Balance the Powers

Assumption*

•Assuming MB will get most of the seatsin the coming re-elections

Separate Military from State - to protect themselves

Assigning the Constitution Council (to protect the new constitution, minorities, and freedom from MB) – to protect us

I think we should support these changes and adding them to the permanent constitution. This is the only way (in my mind) we can maintain a meaningful power balance between MB and SCAF

Please read more about the Turkish model and the involvement of the military in politics.

And compare it to what SCAF has announcedfor Egypt.

Our only hope for a better future is to always work/vote to maintain the power balance between MB and SCAF,

Now as MB got the presidential seat our focus should be to support SCAF in separating the military from the state and controlling the Constitution,

This get us closer to the Turkish Political Model which is one of very few successful political models in the Islamic world.

“They that fight for freedom undertake the noblest cause mankind can have at stake”

The struggle for our Freedom will start with the voting

Thanks a lot to all of you who provided ideas/feedback and help

The original (Pre Election) Scenario slides will follow for your reference

President

InformalPowers

(no hire /fire Authority)

ParliamentJudicial

Constitutional Court

Admin.Court Constitutional

Panel(100 Person)

Prime Minister

National Security

Interior affairs

Official Media

Corrupt Business

Corrupt officials

Corrupt Police

MB Militia

Ultras Melyoneyyat

Private Media

Intelligence

Presidential Control

SCAF

MB

People/Revolution

Hire or Fire Authority

Sabba7y/A.Fotoh

Hir

e /

Fir

e

Fire only

Hire

Pre Elections -Scenario One - SCAF

SCAF

Defense Minister

In this case, Thawra has to support MB and stop SCAF from changing the Parliament

President

InformalPowers

(no hire /fire Authority)

ParliamentJudicial

Constitutional Court

Admin.Court Constitutional

Panel(100 Person)

Prime Minister

Interior affairs

Official Media

Corrupt Business

Corrupt officials

Corrupt Police

MB Militia

Ultras Melyoneyyat

Private Media

Presidential Control

SCAF

MB

People/Revolution

Hire or Fire Authority

Sabba7y/A.Fotoh

Hir

e /

Fir

e

Fire only

Hire

Pre Elections - Scenario Two - MB

SCAF

Defense Minister

Intelligence

National Security

SCAF and moving to MB

Thawra has to support SCAF to protect the constitution and people’s freedom