Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Egyptian Married Women Don’t desire to Work or Simply Can’t?A Duration Analysis

Rana Hendy

Population Council

March 15th, 2010

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Introduction (1)

Domestic Production: identified as the unpaid work done tomaintain family members and/or a home.

The classical dichotomy of “work in the market” vs. “leisure”does gross injustice to the female.

Female’s time allocation should better be analyzed in terms ofa Three-way division: “work in the market”, “work at home”and “leisure”.

The domestic production remains a main feature of sexesinequalities.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Introduction (2)

Economic Interest

Understand gender inequalities within the family.

Gender inequalities within the family could affect:

- The females’ participation rates in the labormarket (the labor force size).

- The economic growth (Stephan Klasen; 1999).- Gender inequalities outside the family:

discrimination etc..

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Paper’s Contribution

In developing countries: very few studies.

The present research is one of the first exploring the extremelybiased division of labor within Egyptian households.

Why Egypt:

- Participation rates of Egyptian females remainvery low: New Explanations.

- Females sole occupation in Egypt is housewives.- Evolution of Marriage, education, fertility and

time saving devices: What are the implicationsof females time use.

- Panel Data to observe this evolution (ELMPS1998-2006).

Limitation: Data are only available for children and adultfemales. Males/ Females comparisons are not possible.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

What I do

This research aims at exploring females’ time allocationhousehold production activities (time spent on housework,child care and market work)

Analyze the main determinants of Females’ time allocation.

Using a multi-state multi-spell duration model, this researchallows a better understanding of the endogenous relationbetween marriage and different employment states.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Outline

Time Use Data

Time Allocation in Egypt

Methodology

Empirical Results

Conclusion

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Egyptian Time Use Data

The Egyptian Labor Market and Panel Survey: individuals arefollowed on an eight-year period 1998-2006.

In the 2006 survey, a whole section is devoted to time use ofEgyptian women: Domestic activities were classified into 14groups.

In the 1998 survey: Three questions on the three mainactivities on which the females spent the most of her time athome.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Sample Selection

All females aged between 16 and 64 years old.

In the panel analysis: we keep all females that were singles in1998 and follow their marital 2006 in 2006 (got married orremained single).

Panel sample: A total of 1850 females.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Descriptives

Table: Time Uses of Egyptian Married Females: Sample Means byNumber of Children

Number of childrenZero One Two or more Total

Age 44,47 25,3 35,14 36

Time Uses (hours per week)

Market work 7,61 6,43 10,08 8,83Domestic work 32,74 53,91 51,15 46,72Housework 31,9 36,23 39,65 37,04Child care 0,84 17,68 11,49 9,68

Total work 40,35 60,34 61,23 55,5

Observations 1989 1229 4293 7511

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Data Descriptives

Figure:

Time allocation by marital status

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Figure:

Evolution of Domestic work by marital status: 1998-2006

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Figure:

Evolution of Market work by marital status: 1998-2006

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Duration Analysis

First, we run Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survival functionof the durations of employment and marriage separately. Weassume here that marriage is exogenous.

is a method of generating tables and plots of survival orhazard functions for event history data.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Figure:

Kaplan-Meier Survival Function: Censored Data

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Duration Analysis

In a second stage, we estimate a bivariate probit relating bothdecisions of marriage and employment.

y1a is equals if the female is employed and zero otherwise.

And, y2a represents the second decision of getting married.

The latter equals to 1 if the female is married and to zerootherwise (Picchio, 2008).

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Duration Analysis

Let us first consider the first spell: Let’s assume that theindividual occupies state κ in 1998. It is an employment spellif κ = e, or an inactivity spell if κ = u. And we denote U∗

κ theduration of the spell occupied by the individual in 1998.

We are interested in the impact of getting married during theeight-years period (1998 and 2006) on the conditionalprobability that this spell lasts at least D years. We note Tκ

the dichotomic variable describing the marital status (marriedversus single).

Let U∗κ = X

′κβκ + Tκδκ + εκ and T ∗

κ = Z′κγκ + νκ be the

correspondent latent variable.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Duration Analysis

Uκ = 1, ifU∗κ = X

′κβκ + Tκδκ + εκ ≥ D, (1)

and

Uκ = 0otherwise, (2)

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Duration Analysis

Tκ = 1, ifT ∗κ = Z

′κγκ + νκ ≥ 0, (3)

and

Tκ = 0otherwise, (4)

where (εκ, νκ) are i.i.d. N(0,Σ), Xκ and Zκ are vectors ofexplanatory and instrumental variables respectively (κ = e, u).

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Duration Analysis

A history of a given female can be represented by a sequenceof realizations of a discrete time stochastic process Yt ,t ∈ 1998, 2006, taking its value in a discrete-state spaceE = 1, 2, 3, 4. Yt is the state occupied by the female at time t.

Let us assume that the realizations of the process areindependent and identically distributed.

This is a discrete-time discrete-state labor marketparticipation process (see, Fougere and Kamionka, 2008;Heckman, 1981; Lancaster, 1990).

The estimation is done using the simulated likelihoodestimator.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Duration Analysis

For the specification of the model, many problems occur.First, the initial time t = 1998 does not correspond to thedate of entry into the labor market for all the females in thesample. We then have to consider the problem of initialconditions in estimating the discrete time stochastic process.

Two approaches can be used here:1 The first approach is proposed by Heckman (1981) and

consists on modeling the initial conditions.2 The second approach is proposed by Wooldridge (2005) and

consists on modeling the unobserved heterogeneity. In thepresent research, we opt for the second method because of itsflexibility.

Unobserved heterogeneity to be added.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Duration Analysis

To put into nutshell, we aim to estimate:

1 The conditional probability of being married.

2 The impact of marriage on the risk to leave employment andon the employment duration.

3 The impact of marriage on the duration of non employmentand the return to employment.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Results

1 Main determinants of Females time allocation:

- Both domestic and market labor supply increasewith the level of education.

- The number of children increases the domesticwork and decreases the market work.

- Females in Cairo and Alex do more (domesticand market) work relatively to other regions.

- Being part of a household that owns a familyprojet increases the market labor supply.

- The domestic work (and specifically child care)increases with the current household welfare(only basic services).

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Tobit Results: Time Spent on Domestic Work

Singles (16-64) Married (16-64) AllCoefficient Coefficient Coefficient

age 2,617*** 1,412*** 4,049***age square -0,034*** -0,023*** -0,047***Age at marriage - 0,212** -HH whealth in 1998 -1,360*** 0,891** -1,009***Basic Services in 2006 -0,641 -0,753* -1,622***Educ dummy2 14,185*** 1,349 7,925***Educ dummy3 3,723 -0,802 10,953***Educ dummy4 8,473*** 1,865 12,243***Educ dummy5 9,460*** 2,141 12,764***Educ dummy6 6,654*** -1,913 9,463***Number of Children in HH 1,454* 4,890*** 6,138***Parent in the HH - -30,323*** -24,164***Sister/Bro. in law - - -26,280***Mother in law - -15,750 -39,366***Dummy for Family Projet 1,021 -1,559 -0,891Region dummy 2 0,667 -7,404*** -4,042***Region dummy 3 -0,551 -4,176*** -1,887***Constant -22,570*** 22,121*** -41,202***Sigma 19,494 27,028 25,718Log Likelihood -6868,7003 -18045,825 -33284,573Pseudo R squared 0,0188 0,0109 0,0626N 1835 3851 8554

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Tobit Results: Time spent on Market Work

Singles (16-64) Married (16-64) AllCoefficient Coefficient Coefficient

age -0,350 0,429 0,103age square 0,003 -0,006* -0,002Age at marriage - 0,097 -HH whealth in 1998 -0,212 -1,159*** 0,368***Basic Services in 2006 -0,510 -0,120 -0,026Educ dummy2 -1,542 -0,387 -0,016Educ dummy3 20,031 -3,974 3,616Educ dummy4 1,412 -1,896 -2,061Educ dummy5 -1,482 -2,592 -3,407***Educ dummy6 -8,518** -1,659 -4,390***Number of Children in HH 2,459 -0,517 -1,053***Parent in the HH (dummy) - -14,810 -0,362Sister/Bro. in law - - -6,277Presence of a Mother in law - - -20,724Dummy for Family Projet 0,637 1,305* 1,855***Region dummy 2 -3,816** -2,988*** -3,678***Region dummy 3 -8,665*** -4,823*** -6,308***Constant 67,175*** 61,426*** 62,445***Sigma 13,104 11,787 12,939Log Likelihood -1244,3003 -3681,4066 -5886,6716Pseudo R squared 0,0418 0,0253 0,0267N 313 948 1480

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

Conclusion

Results of the duration analysis (in progress) would allow abetter understanding of the effect of marriage on employmenttransitions of Egyptian females.

Married women tend to not be able to reconciliate family andprofessional lives (Double burden).

Politics already in place: Decrease the illiteracy rate.. reducediscrimination in the labor market etc..

Call for policies that would encourage women to continueworking after marriage in order to increase females’participation rates:

- Part-time jobs- Programmes de gardes d’enfants (child care

institutes).- Work from home jobs.

Introduction Outline Data Time Allocation in Egypt Methodology Results Conclusion

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION