16
Heavy Duty: China’s Next Wave of Exports Panelists Stephen Joske, Director Dr. Qian Liu, Senior Econometrician Access China, Economist Intelligence Unit Beijing, September 2011
| Date post: | 02-Mar-2015 |
| Category: |
Documents |
| Upload: | yoshi-nishimura |
| View: | 38 times |
| Download: | 3 times |
Heavy Duty: China’s Next Wave of Exports
PanelistsStephen Joske, Director Dr. Qian Liu, Senior Econometrician
Access China, Economist Intelligence UnitBeijing, September 2011
About the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Visit www.eiu.com to register and find out more.
The Economist Intelligence Unit, research arm of The Economist Group, helps business leaders prepare for opportunity, empowering them to act with confidence when making strategic decisions.
CountryCovering 203 countries, we highlight political, economic and business developments in both established and emerging markets.
IndustryWe cover six key strategic industries - and 26 sub-sectors - in the biggest global markets. Our analysis, data and forecasts offer insight into current developments and likely trends.
RiskOur risk models and early - warning systems can identify actual and potential threats to your business around the world.
Moving up the Value Chain
Heavy Duty: China’s Next Wave of Exports
• China’s export sector will cross two important milestones in the coming year
• First, developing countries will take over as China’s primary export market.
• Secondly, domestic Chinese firms will overtake foreign-invested companies as the dominant exporters from China.
China’s Golden Decade
What’s driving these changes?
The HOT Zone
Sources: ITC; Economist Intelligence Unit calculations.
153.2119.562.1Global export value (US$ bn)
11.512.512.8Germany
10.811.510.0Japan
15.716.021.2US
10.24.42.3China
201020052001
Global export market share of construction equipment (%)
Construction Machinery
Building the world’s building equipment
China overtaking Japan and Germany as No.2
Competing in developing countries
The regional angle
• The rise of Chinese equipment manufacturers and their establishment of closer commercial ties with other emerging markets has been a key driver for recent boom conditions in China’s inland provinces.
Since 2007 GDP growth in China’s inland regions has consistently outpaced that of coastal provinces.
Changsha’s Two Musketeers
• Success stories: Sany, Zoomlion, and Xugong
Top ten list of global construction-equipment manufacturers
The implications for Western businesses: Competition will intensify
Gone are the days when the West had the luxury of worrying about low-end textiles and shoe exports from China. The future of exports from China will be led by equipment manufacturers, and although these may not yet be penetrating Western markets, competition in third markets is intensifying.
•China has yet to make any notable impact on the US$553bn car export market, the US$310bn packaged pharmaceuticals market, or the US$85bn aircraft market. • But changes are under way. China’s share of the US$361bn microchip export market has gradually crept up to about 8% over the past decade.
Conclusions
• China’s export milestones in the coming year:developing countries will take over as China’s primary export market.domestic Chinese firms will overtake foreign-invested companies as the dominant exporters from China.
• China’s construction machinery exports will overtake Japan and Germany, with the US still in the lead.
• Government’s role: encouraging but not forcing the pace of innovation
14
Access China - What we do
AnalysisAnalysis of regional trends in China31 provinces + 287 prefectures
Data National Bureau of StatisticsData cleaning
ForecastsState-of-the-art econometric framework—dynamic time seriesOut to 2020
R mb '000
7.6 15.4 19.2 31.7 73.5
GDP per capita 2008
Latest China special reports and events from the EIU
Heavy duty: China’s next wave of exports
Navigate human resources in China
Download free reports by visiting eiu.com homepage
How to organise an investment in China
Attend our China breakfast seminar in London on 30th SeptemberGrand Connaught Rooms, LondonSept 30th, 7.30 – 9am
China Forecasting Director, Sitao Xu, will present strategies for investment in China for your industry. Contact: [email protected]
Thank you谢谢
For the full report, please visit:http://pages.eiu.com/AccessChinaHeavyDutyWPAug2011.html
Qian Liu: [email protected] Joske: [email protected]
16
