El Dorado Demographics 2014 1919191919 1515151515 36363636364040404040 393939393939 454545454545...

SchoolWorks, GIS

6815 Fair Oaks Blvd., #3

Carmichael, CA 95662

Phone: 916‐733‐0402

Fax: 916‐733‐0404

www.SchoolWorksGIS.com

EL DORADO UNION HIGH

SCHOOL DISTRICT

DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2014

4675 Missouri Flat Rd.

Placerville, CA 95667

530.622.5081

Steve Wehr

Superintendent

November 2014

November 2014 Page 1

El Dorado Union High School DistrictDemographic Study 2014‐2015

Executive Summary El Dorado Union High School District is projected to decline in enrollment by 0.79% (or 54 students) for the 2015/16 school year. The District is projected to remain mostly stable in enrollment over the next 10 years with about 6,700‐6,900 students and a projected enrollment of 6,804 students in the 2024/25 school year. This is a total loss of 5 students, which is a decrease of 0.07%. The projections are predicated upon the continued development of 3,046 housing units over the next six years. If the building rates increase or decrease, then the timeline shown in this report will need to be modified accordingly. These projected new developments in the District's boundary are expected to generate 32 students next year, or a total of 539 students in the next six years. The District has a total capacity of 8,153 students and a current enrollment of 6,809. This gives El Dorado Union High School District a current utilization factor of 83.5%. The projected utilization factor in six years will be 84.7%. This assumes loading standards remain constant and no additional facilities are built or removed.



Note: The students attending Mountain View High have been included with the Union Mine High enrollment numbers and the students attending Vista High have been included with the El Dorado High enrollment numbers. These projections assume the transfers between schools remain consistent. If changes in facilities, schedules, programs or policies are made then the patterns may be impacted.

El Dorado Union High School DistrictEnrollment Projections

YEAR 15/16, 1 Year Proj.

School 9 10 11 12 SDC/ISP TOTAL

El Dorado High 310 325 276 349 32 1,292

Oak Ridge High 620 591 616 509 19 2,355

Ponderosa High 436 438 426 387 41 1,728

Union Mine High 263 239 261 286 12 1,061

Independence High 0 3 26 76 0 105

Shenandoah Virtual Academy 13 26 26 35 0 100

Community Day 0 1 3 5 0 9

ISP 0 0 0 0 105 105

Totals 1,642 1,623 1,634 1,647 209 6,755

Current CBEDS 1,641 1,692 1,671 1,596 209 6,809

Net Change 1 ‐69 ‐37 51 0 ‐54

Cohort Change ‐18 ‐58 ‐24



Introduction This study has been prepared for the El Dorado Union High School District using a state‐of‐the‐art GIS (geographic information system) program. Several databases of information have been analyzed including; current and historic student enrollment records, birth rates over the past ten years, projected new housing developments, and school site facilities capacity and utilization. By taking advantage of multi‐layered statistical data, this study will provide an accurate view of your Districts current environment and projected future trends.

Methodology The enrollment projections for each school are generated using a State standard weighted cohort trend analysis. The basic projections are created by studying the individual geographic areas. Once the trends are analyzed for each area, the base projections are modified using the following procedures:

a) Birth rates are used to project future kindergarten enrollment. It is assumed if the births indicate there was an increase of 4% one year, then there will be a corresponding 4% increase in the kindergarten class five years later.

b) New Housing Development rates and yield factors are compared to the historical impact of

development and if the future projections exceed the historical values, the projections are augmented accordingly.

c) Inter‐District student counts are not included in the base geographic trend analysis since

these students reside outside of the District. Therefore, the current number of students‐per‐school and students‐per‐grade are added to the base projections.

d) Intra‐District students are those who transfer from one school to another. The number of

students transferring into and out of each school are calculated and used to determine the difference between the projections for students living in each attendance area versus those that are projected to attend the school.

e) The projections for special education students and alternative programs are created by

assuming those programs typically serve a percentage of the total District population. Therefore as the District grows or declines, the enrollment in those programs would increase or decrease accordingly.

The projections in this study are based on the current school boundaries and attendance patterns.



District Map with Student Residential Locations

This map shows the District boundary along with the location of each student based on their residential address. This geographic data is the foundation for our demographic analysis. Any red dots outside the district boundary will represent students attending one of the District schools or programs but have a residence outside the District. This map also identifies different areas of student population density.

El Dorado UnionEl Dorado UnionEl Dorado UnionEl Dorado UnionEl Dorado UnionEl Dorado UnionEl Dorado UnionEl Dorado UnionEl Dorado Union

High School DistrictHigh School DistrictHigh School DistrictHigh School DistrictHigh School DistrictHigh School DistrictHigh School DistrictHigh School DistrictHigh School District



High School Boundaries and School Locations

Id School 1 El Dorado High 2 Oak Ridge High 3 Ponderosa High 4 Union Mine High

222222222 444444444

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Historic Birth Rates The following section is an analysis of the number of births in the El Dorado Union High School District. The number of births are compiled by zip code regions and provided by the Department of Health. The zip code areas do not exactly match the District boundaries and therefore the zip codes 95619, 95623, 95636, 95667, 95672, 95682, 95684, 95709, 95726 and 95762 which are in the District were used for this analysis.

The above figure illustrates the correlation between births in the District area and the number of kindergarten students attending the feeder districts for El Dorado Union High schools five years later. The number of births between 1998 and 2009 has averaged about 1,246 per year. The recent birth rates over the past four years (2010 to 2013) which will generate the kindergarten classes for the next four years (2015 to 2018) have been between 1,081 and 1,193. We have assumed that the current kindergarten capture rate of 126.33% will be maintained in the future. The kindergarten projections shown here do not account for the impact of any additional housing units.

1737

1533 1509 1507 15471471 1490 1420 1438

1526 1519 15641421

15071366 1366

1077 1071 10841145

1234 12491360 1366

1476

13501305

1238

11251193

1081 1081

0

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2017

2018

School Year (Births are 5 years earlier)

Kindergarten Projections based on Births

K students Births

Historic K Enrollment compared to Births K Projections



New Housing Developments

This close up view of the District shows the location of the projected new development areas.

Based on these estimated construction rates, the development will generate 32 students next year and a total of 539 students in the next six years.

171717171717171717

292929292929292929333333333333333333484848484848484848

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525252525252525252555555555

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353535353535353535

202020202020202020555555555555555555

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535353535353535353

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131313131313131313

101010101010101010

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111111111303030303030303030

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272727272727272727

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999999999

424242424242424242434343434343434343414141414141414141

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464646464646464646

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545454545454545454

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313131313131313131 232323232323232323

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141414141414141414

565656565656565656

323232323232323232 191919191919191919

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404040404040404040363636363636363636393939393939393939

454545454545454545

383838383838383838373737373737373737

15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

School Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Totals

El Dorado High 7 7 12 12 22 22 82

Oak Ridge High 20 76 128 279 353 386 1,242

Ponderosa High 35 35 83 156 236 266 811

Union Mine High 120 150 150 161 115 215 911

High School Totals 182 268 373 608 726 889 3,046

El Dorado Union High School District

New Development ConstructionHousing Units per Year



The projections used in this report are based on the following number of units projected from these developments.

Assuming that 3,046 of the 14,895 planned units are completed over a six year period, there would be an average of 508 new housing units per year. To determine the impact of the new housing development, each new housing unit is multiplied by the student yield rate. Currently the District student yield rate is .177 students per housing unit. This breaks down as follows: Grade District State 9‐12 .177 0.20 The yield rate used for new construction eligibility determination in the State building program is 0.20 students per home for 9‐12 districts. The yield rate in the El Dorado Union High School District is lower than the State average.

Remaining 6 Year Remaining 6 YearID Name Units Projection ID Name Units Projection

Ponderosa High School Attendance Area Oak Ridge High School Attendance Area2 Bell Woods 54 45 8 CARSON CREEK & EUER RANCH 1,700 205 Cameron Heights 25 25 14 Dixon Ranch 605 6056 Cameron Hills 41 30 19 La Cresta Woods 25 257 Cameron Meadows 374 72 23 Pedregal Planning Area 265 15016 Hawk View Ridge 116 35 25 Promontory Villages 24 2420 Limerock Valley Specific Plan 800 0 26 Promontory Villages 1‐5 73 7322 Oak View Estates 24 24 28 Rancho Dorado 207 12729 Rancho Tierra 54 34 31 Ridgeview Village #9 48 2333 Rihan Estates 15 15 32 Ridgeview West 12 1235 San Stino 1,041 0 34 Salmon Falls Preserve 375 036 Serrano J5 & J6 119 80 37 Serrano Village A 54 039 Serrano Village J LotH 83 0 38 Serrano Village C2 50 040 Serrano Village J7 71 0 42 Serrano Village M2 73 3341 Serrano Village K1/K2 106 106 45 Serrano Village M5 10 043 Serrano Village M3 30 0 47 Serrano Westside 763 15044 Serrano Village M4 38 0 56 Wilson Estates 58 046 Serrano Villages K5 P2 115 115 Sub Total 4,342 1,24248 Shady Glen Estates 22 2249 Sierra Gold Condos 91 40 Remaining 6 Year50 Silver Springs 244 55 ID Name Units Projection51 Starbuck Ranch 49 42 El Dorado High School Attendance Area52 Sunrise Heights 1/2 36 36 1 Astonia (Placerville Estates) 39 054 Verde Vista 69 35 9 Cedar Bluffs Phase 2 & 3 58 0

Sub Total 3,617 811 11 Cottonwood Park Phase 4&6 39 017 Hutton Hills Estates Preliminary 35 20

Remaining 6 Year 18 Jewell Ridge Estates 17 0ID Name Units Projection 21 Lumsden Ranch 366 0

Union Mine High School Attendance Area 24 Placerville Heritage Homes 20 03 Big Canyon Ranch 40 30 27 Quartz Mountain 22 124 BlackStone 581 581 30 Ridge at Orchard Hill 94 5010 Cottage Gardens 50 15 Sub Total 690 8212 Deer Creek Estates 121 2013 Diamond Dorado 744 15 District Total 14,895 3,04615 Forni Rd 34 053 VALLEY VIEW 1,440 055 Village of Marble Valley SP 3,236 250

Sub Total 6,246 911



Historic Enrollment and Trends

This chart shows the enrollment by grade level over the past 4 years. The cohort values were calculated for each grade and each year, along with the weighted average for each grade. A positive cohort value indicates that grade is expected to have more students than the previous grade last year. A negative value would mean that the grade has fewer students compared to the previous grade last year. In general a positive cohort is representative of growth and a negative cohort indicates a decline in enrollment. There are some exceptions. First grade usually has a positive cohort as there are some students that do not attend kindergarten at public schools but show up in first grade. Another important item to notice is the current breakdown by grade level of the student population. Comparing the number of students in the lower grades to the upper grades can indicate potential increases or decreases in future enrollments. Also, if there is a large class or a small class, it will slowly cause a ripple in the enrollments as it advances a grade each year. Finally, the annual change at the bottom of this chart indicates the net impact of the changes in enrollment over the past few years.

Weighted

Grade 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14 Average

9 1,719 1,704 1,685 1,641 ‐15 ‐19 ‐44 ‐30.8

10 1,712 1,699 1,679 1,692 ‐20 ‐25 7 ‐8.2

11 1,691 1,689 1,632 1,671 ‐23 ‐67 ‐8 ‐30.2

12 1,780 1,662 1,624 1,596 ‐29 ‐65 ‐36 ‐44.5

SDC 0 108 216 209 108 108 ‐7 50.5

Totals 6,902 6,862 6,836 6,809 4.2 ‐13.6 ‐17.6 ‐12.6

Annual Change: ‐40 ‐26 ‐27

CBEDS Enrollment Historic Cohorts

El Dorado Union High School DistrictHistoric Enrollment and Cohorts



School Projections After the boundary map for each school, there is a chart that shows the projected enrollment for the next six years. These charts indicate the actual enrollment at each school over the past four years along with the projected enrollment for the next six years. In addition, the number of students living in the boundary are shown for the same time period. If there are more students attending than live in the area, then there is a net inflow. If more students live in the boundary than attend the school, then there is a net outflow. The current capacity is shown on these charts to identify if there will be classroom space available for the students. If space is not available then the attendance patterns will likely need to change if the additional facilities are not provided. The capacity for each school was determined by using the following loading standards for each classroom identified: Grade Loading Standard Grade Loading Standard 9‐12 27.5 SVA 22 CHS 25 SDC 12 These loading standards are based on the current loading factors used this year and may change based on the level of funding for schools in the future.

Loading Standard Analysis

School year(s) Student/teacher ratio Class load factor Class load % Leeway factor

Pre 2008/09 30 to 1 27 to 1 90% 10%

2008/09‐2012/13 32 to 1 27 to 1 84% 16%

2013/14* 31.57 27.5 to 1 87% 13%

*Formula to determine class load factor based on student/teacher ratio: Student/teacher ratio times Class load percentage equals Class load factor (31.57 X 87% = 27.5) Backup data is provided below each projection chart that shows the calculations of the cohort factors used to determine the enrollment projections for each school. The number of students living in the boundary are shown which are then used to generate the cohort factors. The weighted average of the 3 years was determined with the current year weighted 50%, the prior year 33.3% and the last year 16.7%. This gives the current trends more value in determining the projections. Those cohorts are then used to determine the students who will be residing in each attendance area for the following years. The kindergarten enrollment is projected using the birth data instead of the cohort factor shown here. The “Attendance Factors” were determined by analyzing the current year of students to see how many Inter‐ and Intra‐District transfers there are. Once the baseline projections are calculated for the residents in the attendance area, the Intra‐District and Inter‐District factors are applied to determine the projected enrollment for each school. The last three columns in the chart "Current Enrollment", "15/16 Projection" and "Net Change" show the current enrollment, next year’s projection and net change in enrollment for next year. These are compared by grade to show the details needed for staffing and classroom needs.



Union Mine HighUnion Mine HighUnion Mine HighUnion Mine HighUnion Mine HighUnion Mine HighUnion Mine HighUnion Mine HighUnion Mine High

PonderosaPonderosaPonderosaPonderosaPonderosaPonderosaPonderosaPonderosaPonderosa

HighHighHighHighHighHighHighHighHigh

El Dorado HighEl Dorado HighEl Dorado HighEl Dorado HighEl Dorado HighEl Dorado HighEl Dorado HighEl Dorado HighEl Dorado High

El Dorado HighStudent Legend

Incoming from other Districts (15)Incoming from other schools (66)Living in area and attending this school (1210)Outgoing to other schools (312)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Inter-District

Community Day

Independence High

Mountain View High

Oak Ridge High

Ponderosa High

Shenandoah VirtualAcademy

Union Mine High

Vista High

15

0

0

0

2

12

0

52

0

0

4

38

2

4

60

19

138

47

Incoming Outgoing

Students

El Dorado HighTransfer Students



District Loading Standards

Traditional School

All Portables Loaded

Classroom Count = 57

Grades Served = 9 ‐ 12

Classroom Needs TimelineProjected

Total Annual Spec. Ed. Facility Unhoused Annual CR Total CR's Available Housing

Year Students* Change Students Capacity Students Needed Needed Seats Units

14/15 1311 ‐41 32 1521 0 0 ‐7 210

15/16 1292 ‐19 32 1521 0 0 ‐8 229 7

16/17 1246 ‐46 30 1521 0 0 ‐10 275 717/18 1257 11 31 1521 0 0 ‐9 264 12

18/19 1238 ‐19 30 1521 0 0 ‐10 283 12

19/20 1251 13 31 1521 0 0 ‐10 270 22

20/21 1293 42 32 1521 0 0 ‐8 228 22

* Based on Students Attending (Squares on Graph)


El Dorado High

1465 1400 1352 1311 1292 1246 1257 1238 1251 1293 1337 1325 1361 1342

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25

Capacity & Projected Enrollment

Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity = 1521

Weighted Attendance Factors Current 15/16 Net

YEAR: 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14 Average Intra Inter Enrollment Projection Change

Grade

K 487 476 432 444 ‐11 ‐44 12 ‐2 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 375 426 411 356 ‐61 ‐65 ‐76 ‐35 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 372 385 403 406 10 ‐23 ‐5 ‐9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 365 350 381 415 ‐22 ‐4 12 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 370 368 349 364 3 ‐1 ‐17 ‐8 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 347 376 350 353 6 ‐18 4 ‐3 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 393 350 365 357 3 ‐11 7 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 329 355 343 349 ‐38 ‐7 ‐16 ‐17 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 368 324 373 335 ‐5 18 ‐8 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 401 409 369 386 41 45 13 28 ‐14.5% 0.8% 333 310 ‐23

10 397 400 407 356 ‐1 ‐2 ‐13 ‐7 ‐16.3% 1.1% 302 325 23

11 398 398 378 409 1 ‐22 2 ‐6 ‐19.6% 1.5% 335 276 ‐59

12 450 400 414 371 2 16 ‐7 2 ‐17.3% 0.5% 309 349 40

SDC 32 32 0

Totals 5052 5017 4975 4901 ‐5.5 ‐9.1 ‐7.1 ‐4.2 ‐16.9% 1.0% 1311 1292 ‐19

Historic CohortsStudents in boundary

El Dorado High






OakOakOakOakOakOakOakOakOak

RidgeRidgeRidgeRidgeRidgeRidgeRidgeRidgeRidge


Oak Ridge HighStudent Legend


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Inter-District

Community Day

El Dorado High

Independence High

Mountain View High

Ponderosa High


Union Mine High

11

0

4

0

0

74

0

9

0

1

2

8

1

43

34

11

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Oak Ridge HighTransfer Students




Traditional School







14/15 2359 43 19 2405 0 0 ‐1 46

15/16 2355 ‐4 19 2405 0 0 ‐2 50 20

16/17 2402 47 19 2405 0 1 1 3 7617/18 2377 ‐25 19 2405 0 0 0 28 128

18/19 2372 ‐5 19 2405 0 0 0 33 279

19/20 2379 7 20 2405 0 0 0 26 353

20/21 2357 ‐22 20 2405 0 0 ‐1 48 386



Oak Ridge High

2261 2274 2316 2359 2355 2402 2377 2372 2379 2357 2322 2272 2231 2201

Capacity

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25





Grade

K 487 481 487 463 ‐6 6 ‐24 ‐2 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 476 463 442 405 ‐24 ‐39 ‐82 ‐29 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 507 484 471 484 8 8 42 25 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 537 504 512 498 ‐3 28 27 22 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 579 541 523 530 4 19 18 16 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 563 582 571 529 3 30 6 14 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 571 569 599 581 6 17 10 12 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 597 565 580 602 ‐6 11 3 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 560 582 575 588 ‐15 10 8 5 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 602 581 642 612 21 60 37 42 ‐0.3% 0.2% 611 620 9

10 561 602 580 643 0 ‐1 1 0 ‐1.9% 0.0% 631 591 ‐40

11 575 561 582 562 0 ‐20 ‐18 ‐16 ‐1.2% 0.9% 560 616 56

12 557 565 555 574 ‐10 ‐6 ‐8 ‐8 ‐7.1% 0.9% 538 509 ‐29

SDC 19 19 0

Totals 7172 7080 7119 7071 ‐1.7 9.5 1.5 6.5 ‐2.6% 0.5% 2359 2355 ‐4


Oak Ridge High










Ponderosa HighStudent Legend


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Inter-District

Community Day

El Dorado High

Independence High

Mountain View High

Oak Ridge High


Union Mine High

12

0

60

0

0

43

0

43

0

2

12

35

12

74

29

47

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Ponderosa HighTransfer Students




Traditional School







14/15 1777 ‐14 42 2221 0 0 ‐16 444

15/16 1728 ‐49 41 2221 0 0 ‐18 493 35

16/17 1716 ‐12 41 2221 0 0 ‐19 505 3517/18 1725 9 41 2221 0 0 ‐19 496 83

18/19 1793 68 43 2221 0 0 ‐15 428 156

19/20 1811 18 44 2221 0 0 ‐15 410 236

20/21 1804 ‐7 44 2221 0 0 ‐15 417 266



Ponderosa High

1890 1853 1791 1777 1728 1716 1725 1793 1811 1804 1745 1627 1656 1659

Capacity

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25





Grade

K 405 373 383 404 ‐32 10 21 ‐2 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 367 349 338 314 ‐56 ‐35 ‐69 ‐28 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 436 364 373 348 ‐3 24 10 13 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 406 442 377 361 6 13 ‐12 ‐1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 407 400 460 374 ‐6 18 ‐3 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 403 404 418 459 ‐3 18 ‐1 5 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 407 385 402 421 ‐18 ‐2 3 ‐2 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 421 400 393 408 ‐7 8 6 5 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 421 403 420 391 ‐18 20 ‐2 3 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 492 483 476 465 62 73 45 57 ‐2.8% 0.4% 454 436 ‐18

10 476 479 462 471 ‐13 ‐21 ‐5 ‐12 ‐3.6% 0.6% 457 438 ‐19

11 467 469 472 458 ‐7 ‐7 ‐4 ‐6 ‐9.0% 0.7% 420 426 6

12 499 483 466 479 16 ‐3 7 5 ‐16.5% 0.8% 404 387 ‐17

SDC 42 41 ‐1

Totals 5607 5434 5440 5353 ‐6.1 8.9 ‐0.3 3.2 ‐8.0% 0.6% 1777 1728 ‐49


Ponderosa High







Union Mine HighStudent Legend


0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Inter-District

Community Day

El Dorado High

Independence High

Mountain View High

Oak Ridge High

Ponderosa High


Vista High

5

0

138

0

0

11

47

0

0

0

2

52

23

27

9

43

17

3

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Union Mine HighTransfer Students




Traditional School







14/15 1044 ‐53 12 1470 0 0 ‐15 426

15/16 1061 17 12 1470 0 0 ‐15 409 120

16/17 1007 ‐54 12 1470 0 0 ‐17 463 15017/18 1001 ‐6 12 1470 0 0 ‐17 469 150

18/19 1040 39 12 1470 0 0 ‐16 430 161

19/20 1060 20 12 1470 0 0 ‐15 410 115

20/21 1132 72 14 1470 0 0 ‐12 338 215



Union Mine High

1016 1038 1097

1044 1061 1007 1001 1040 1060

1132 1193

1245 1276 1281

Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25





Grade

K 193 196 201 205 3 5 4 ‐1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 169 200 192 195 7 ‐4 ‐6 ‐2 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 194 187 209 207 18 9 15 14 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 175 194 203 224 0 16 15 13 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 182 162 187 210 ‐13 ‐7 7 ‐1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 189 185 193 204 3 31 17 19 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 173 203 183 191 14 ‐2 ‐2 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 213 189 213 188 16 10 5 9 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 216 224 190 218 11 1 5 5 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 239 259 242 204 43 18 14 20 11.8% 1.0% 230 263 33

10 269 227 278 239 ‐12 19 ‐3 3 12.6% 0.8% 271 239 ‐32

11 243 284 240 292 15 13 14 14 2.4% 0.0% 299 261 ‐38

12 263 248 290 242 5 6 2 4 ‐4.5% 0.4% 232 286 54

SDC 12 12 0

Totals 2718 2758 2821 2819 8.5 8.8 6.7 7.5 5.5% 0.6% 1044 1061 17


Union Mine High










Independence HighStudent Legend

Incoming from other schools (104)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

El Dorado High

Oak Ridge High

Ponderosa High

Union Mine High

38

8

35

23

0

0

0

0

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Independence HighTransfer Students




Traditional School


Classroom Count = 9





14/15 104 ‐10 0 225 0 0 ‐5 121

15/16 105 1 0 225 0 0 ‐5 120 182

16/17 104 ‐1 0 225 0 0 ‐5 121 26817/18 102 ‐2 0 225 0 0 ‐5 123 373

18/19 103 1 0 225 0 0 ‐5 122 608

19/20 104 1 0 225 0 0 ‐5 121 726

20/21 106 2 0 225 0 0 ‐5 119 889


Classroom Count = 9

Independence High

119 135

114 104 105 104 102 103 104 106 105 105 108 105

Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25





Grade

K 1572 1526 1503 1516 ‐46 ‐23 13 ‐8 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 1387 1438 1383 1270 ‐134 ‐143 ‐233 ‐93 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 1509 1420 1456 1445 33 18 62 43 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 1483 1490 1473 1498 ‐19 53 42 36 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 1538 1471 1519 1478 ‐12 29 5 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 1502 1547 1532 1545 9 61 26 35 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 1544 1507 1549 1550 5 2 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 1560 1509 1529 1547 ‐35 22 ‐2 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 1565 1533 1558 1456 ‐27 49 ‐73 ‐25 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 1734 1732 1729 1667 167 196 109 148 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

10 1703 1708 1727 1709 ‐26 ‐5 ‐20 ‐16 0.0% 0.2% 3 3 0

11 1683 1712 1672 1721 9 ‐36 ‐6 ‐14 0.0% 1.6% 27 26 ‐1

12 1769 1696 1725 1666 13 13 ‐6 4 0.0% 4.4% 74 76 2

Totals 20549 20289 20355 20068 ‐4.8 18.2 ‐5.0 10.2 0.0% 2.1% 104 105 1


Independence High










Shenandoah Virtual AcademyStudent Legend

Incoming from other Districts (2)Incoming from other schools (99)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Inter-District

El Dorado High

Oak Ridge High

Ponderosa High

Union Mine High

2

19

34

29

17

0

0

0

0

0

Incoming Outgoing

Students

Shenandoah Virtual AcademyTransfer Students




Traditional School







14/15 101 38 0 286 0 0 ‐8 185

15/16 100 ‐1 0 286 0 0 ‐8 186 182

16/17 99 ‐1 0 286 0 0 ‐8 187 26817/18 99 0 0 286 0 0 ‐8 187 373

18/19 100 1 0 286 0 0 ‐8 186 608

19/20 100 0 0 286 0 0 ‐8 186 726

20/21 103 3 0 286 0 0 ‐8 183 889



Shenandoah Virtual Academy

35 45 63

101 100 99 99 100 100 103 102 102 102 102

Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25





Grade

K 1572 1526 1503 1516 ‐46 ‐23 13 ‐8 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 1387 1438 1383 1270 ‐134 ‐143 ‐233 ‐93 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 1509 1420 1456 1445 33 18 62 43 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 1483 1490 1473 1498 ‐19 53 42 36 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 1538 1471 1519 1478 ‐12 29 5 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 1502 1547 1532 1545 9 61 26 35 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 1544 1507 1549 1550 5 2 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 1560 1509 1529 1547 ‐35 22 ‐2 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 1565 1533 1558 1532 ‐27 49 3 13 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 1734 1732 1729 1667 167 196 109 148 0.0% 0.8% 13 13 0

10 1703 1708 1727 1709 ‐26 ‐5 ‐20 ‐16 0.0% 1.6% 27 26 ‐1

11 1683 1712 1672 1721 9 ‐36 ‐6 ‐14 0.0% 1.6% 27 26 ‐1

12 1769 1696 1725 1666 13 13 ‐6 4 0.0% 2.0% 34 35 1

Totals 20549 20289 20355 20144 ‐4.8 18.2 0.8 13.1 0.0% 1.5% 101 100 ‐1


Shenandoah Virtual Academy




Traditional School


Classroom Count = 1





14/15 9 3 0 25 0 0 ‐1 16

15/16 9 0 0 25 0 0 ‐1 16 182

16/17 9 0 0 25 0 0 ‐1 16 26817/18 9 0 0 25 0 0 ‐1 16 373

18/19 9 0 0 25 0 0 ‐1 16 608

19/20 9 0 0 25 0 0 ‐1 16 726

20/21 9 0 0 25 0 0 ‐1 16 889


Classroom Count = 1

Community Day

14

9

6

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Capacity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25





Grade

K 1572 1526 1503 1516 ‐46 ‐23 13 ‐8 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 1387 1438 1383 1270 ‐134 ‐143 ‐233 ‐93 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 1509 1420 1456 1445 33 18 62 43 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 1483 1490 1473 1498 ‐19 53 42 36 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 1538 1471 1519 1478 ‐12 29 5 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 1502 1547 1532 1545 9 61 26 35 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 1544 1507 1549 1550 5 2 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 1560 1509 1529 1547 ‐35 22 ‐2 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 1565 1533 1558 1456 ‐27 49 ‐73 ‐25 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 1734 1732 1729 1667 167 196 109 148 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

10 1703 1708 1727 1709 ‐26 ‐5 ‐20 ‐16 0.0% 0.1% 1 1 0

11 1683 1712 1672 1721 9 ‐36 ‐6 ‐14 0.0% 0.2% 3 3 0

12 1769 1696 1725 1666 13 13 ‐6 4 0.0% 0.3% 5 5 0

Totals 20549 20289 20355 20068 ‐4.8 18.2 ‐5.0 10.2 0.0% 0.2% 9 9 0


Community Day




Traditional School


Classroom Count =





14/15 104 7 104 0 104 9 9 0

15/16 105 1 105 0 105 0 9 0 182

16/17 104 ‐1 104 0 104 0 9 0 26817/18 104 0 104 0 104 0 9 0 373

18/19 105 1 105 0 105 0 9 0 608

19/20 104 ‐1 104 0 104 0 9 0 726

20/21 104 0 104 0 104 0 9 0 889


Classroom Count = 0

ISP

0

108

97 104 105 104 104 105 104 104 104 104 105 105

Capacity0

20

40

60

80

100

120

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25


Students attending(History = CBEDS) Students living in attendance area School Capacity =



Grade

K 1572 1526 1503 1516 ‐46 ‐23 13 ‐8 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

1 1387 1438 1383 1270 ‐134 ‐143 ‐233 ‐93 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

2 1509 1420 1456 1445 33 18 62 43 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

3 1483 1490 1473 1498 ‐19 53 42 36 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

4 1538 1471 1519 1478 ‐12 29 5 10 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

5 1502 1547 1532 1545 9 61 26 35 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

6 1544 1507 1549 1550 5 2 18 11 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

7 1560 1509 1529 1547 ‐35 22 ‐2 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

8 1565 1533 1558 1456 ‐27 49 ‐73 ‐25 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

9 1734 1732 1729 1667 167 196 109 148 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

10 1703 1708 1727 1709 ‐26 ‐5 ‐20 ‐16 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

11 1683 1712 1672 1721 9 ‐36 ‐6 ‐14 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

12 1769 1696 1725 1666 13 13 ‐6 4 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0

SDC 104 105 1

Totals 20549 20289 20355 20068 ‐4.8 18.2 ‐5.0 10.2 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 104 105 1


ISP



Student Attendance Matrix

This chart summarizes the transfers in and out of each school as were seen by the yellow dots and blue dots on the school attendance maps. In addition, the data has been analyzed to determine the total in‐flow and out‐flow rates for each school. The comprehensive high school with the largest in‐flow rate is Union Mine High and the school with the largest out‐flow rate is El Dorado High.

ATTENDANCE MATRIX

SCHOOL: El D

ora

do H

igh

Oak R

idge H

igh

Po

nd

ero

sa H

igh

Un

ion M

ine

Hig

h

Ind

epen

den

ce H

igh

Mo

un

tain V

iew H

igh

Shen

and

oah

Vir

tual A

cad

emy

Vis

ta H

igh

Co

mm

un

ity

Day

ISP

Total Residing

AREA

Inter‐District 15 11 12 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 46

El Dorado High 1,210 4 60 138 38 2 19 47 4 0 1,522

Oak Ridge High 2 2,291 43 11 8 1 34 0 1 0 2,391

Ponderosa High 12 74 1,662 47 35 12 29 0 2 0 1,873

Union Mine High 52 9 43 801 23 27 17 3 2 0 977

Correction Factor* 20 ‐30 ‐43 42 0 ‐42 0 ‐51 0 104 0

Total Attending 1,311 2,359 1,777 1,044 104 0 101 0 9 104 6,809

Intra‐Ins 66 87 146 196 104 42 99 50 9 0 799

Inter‐Ins 15 11 12 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 46

Total In‐Flow 81 98 158 201 104 42 101 51 9 0 845

Intra‐Outs 312 100 211 176 0 0 0 0 0 0 799

% In Flow Students 6.2% 4.2% 8.9% 19.3% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12.4%

% Out Flow Students 20.5% 4.2% 11.3% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7%

* The correction factor represents the difference between the student data dowload counts and the actual Calpads counts.

SCHOOL OF ATTENDANCE

R

E

S

I

D

E

N

C

E



Student Residency and Enrollment Comparison

This chart compares each individual high school enrollment to the students that reside within the school attendance boundary. Utilizing this data helps make it easy to see which schools have the largest and smallest enrollments as well as which boundaries are most populated. Schools with more students enrolled than those living in the boundary have a net transfer into the school. This is typically found at schools with special programs such as Gate or Dual Immersion, schools housing students from overcrowded or PI schools, and schools with more capacity than the student population living in the boundary.

1522

2391

1873

977

1311

2359

1777

1044

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

El Dorado High Oak Ridge High Ponderosa High Union Mine High

High SchoolsStudent Residents & Enrollment

Boundary

Enrollment



District Projections This graph shows a summary of the projections for the entire District. It shows the current enrollment for 2014/15, the historic enrollment for the past nine years, and the projected enrollment for the next ten years. The District has been experiencing a declining enrollment for the past 10 years, they are projected to continue declining for the next three years before increasing new housing development brings some growth. The end result is a total of 6,804 students in the District in ten years.



One Year Enrollment Projection Summary

The projection for next year (2015/16) shows a decrease of 54 students. The largest decline will be seen at 10th grade. The biggest increase will be in 12th grade. These projections assume the transfers between schools remain consistent. If changes in facilities, schedules, programs or policies are made then the patterns may be impacted.

El Dorado Union High School DistrictEnrollment Projections

YEAR 15/16, 1 Year Proj.

School 9 10 11 12 SDC/ISP TOTAL

El Dorado High 310 325 276 349 32 1,292

Oak Ridge High 620 591 616 509 19 2,355

Ponderosa High 436 438 426 387 41 1,728

Union Mine High 263 239 261 286 12 1,061

Independence High 0 3 26 76 0 105

Shenandoah Virtual Academy 13 26 26 35 0 100

Community Day 0 1 3 5 0 9

ISP 0 0 0 0 105 105

Totals 1,642 1,623 1,634 1,647 209 6,755

Current CBEDS 1,641 1,692 1,671 1,596 209 6,809

Net Change 1 ‐69 ‐37 51 0 ‐54

Cohort Change ‐18 ‐58 ‐24



Enrollment Projection Summary by Grade

Enrollment Projection Summary by School

Current

Enrollment

Grade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

9 1,641 1,642 1,666 1,669 1,680 1,659 1,711

10 1,692 1,623 1,629 1,661 1,673 1,688 1,676

11 1,671 1,634 1,571 1,582 1,622 1,638 1,659

12 1,596 1,647 1,615 1,555 1,576 1,622 1,648

SDC/ISP 209 209 206 207 209 211 214

Total 9‐12 6,600 6,546 6,481 6,467 6,551 6,607 6,694

Total SDC/ISP 209 209 206 207 209 211 214

District Totals 6,809 6,755 6,687 6,674 6,760 6,818 6,908

Enrollment Projection Summary by Grade


Current

Enrollment

School 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

El Dorado High 1,311 1,292 1,246 1,257 1,238 1,251 1,293

Oak Ridge High 2,359 2,355 2,402 2,377 2,372 2,379 2,357

Ponderosa High 1,777 1,728 1,716 1,725 1,793 1,811 1,804

Union Mine High 1,044 1,061 1,007 1,001 1,040 1,060 1,132

High School Totals 6,491 6,436 6,371 6,360 6,443 6,501 6,586

Independence High 104 105 104 102 103 104 106

Shenandoah Virtual Academy 101 100 99 99 100 100 103

Community Day 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

ISP 104 105 104 104 105 104 104

Other Totals 318 319 316 314 317 317 322

District Totals 6,809 6,755 6,687 6,674 6,760 6,818 6,908

Annual Change ‐54 ‐68 ‐13 86 58 90


Enrollment Projection Summary by School



School Facility Utilization The following chart shows the current and projected utilization rates for each school. It has been color coded with blue representing schools with a utilization rate of under 70%, yellow representing a utilization rate of at least 70% but under 80% and red for the schools that have over 100% utilization.

For 2014, the most under-utilized comprehensive high school is Union Mine High and the highest utilization is at Oak Ridge High.

School Facility Utilization 2014/15 2020/21 2014/15 2020/21District Current Projected Current Projected

High Schools Classrooms Capacity Enrollment Enrollment Utilization UtilizationEl Dorado High 57 1,521 1,311 1,293 86.2% 85.0%Oak Ridge High 88 2,405 2,359 2,357 98.1% 98.0%Ponderosa High 83 2,221 1,777 1,804 80.0% 81.2%Union Mine High 54 1,470 1,044 1,132 71.0% 77.0%Sub-Totals 282 7,617 6,491 6,586 85.2% 86.5%

Other SchoolsIndependence High 9 225 104 106Shenandoah Virtual Academy 13 286 101 103Community Day 1 25 9 9ISP 0 0 104 104Sub-Totals 26 536 318 322

District Totals 308 8,153 6,809 6,908 83.5% 84.7%

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