1. Jos Luis Cordeiro www.cordeiro.org The Millennium Project Director, Nodo Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Venezuela Fundador, Caracas, Venezuela Singularity University Profesor, NASA Ames, California, USA

2. www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 3. Venezuela vs. Benesuela ? Escenarios Ingreso por habitante en moneda constate (Indice 1977 = 100) Benesuela Venezuela www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 4. Venezuela: entre Suiza y Hait Escenarios? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Ingreso por habitante (US$ d el 2000 ) 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 0 Hait? Suiza? Venezuela Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 5. World Future Societym 6. World Future Societym 7. 8. 2007 International Winners Corea 1 China 1 India 2 Mxico 7 Estados Unidos 1 Venezuela 1 9. Mientras ms rpido vamos, ms lejos necesitamos ver www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 10. Podemos estudiar el futuro? Podemos estudiar elclima ? Podemos estudiar lasestrellas ? Podemos estudiar laTierra ? Podemos estudiar elpasado ? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 11. Del Mediterr neo alPacfico 500 years 5000 years 50 years ??? www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. A new face for the world 18. A new behind for the world 19. China:(Chung Kuo) 20. 21. Singularity University 22. 23. Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near

www.singularity.com

Bill Gates

Ley de Moore

24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. Sequencing the genome: cost and time Year Cost (US$) Time 2003 1,000,000.000 13 years 2007 100,000,000 4 years 2008 1,000,000 2 months 2009 10,000 4 weeks 2015 100 5 days 35. Android Google Phone (gPhone) 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. Agricultural revolution Natural resources Industrial revolution Financial resources Knowledge revolution Human resouces The 3wavesof Alvin Toffler 43. Japn: de sacapuntasmalosa computadorasbuenasen 30 aos 44. Developmentis faster and faster 45. 46. Energywaves : decarbonization 47. Towards a post-petroleum world British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum 48. Jeque Yamani, 2000 Arabia Saudita

La Edad de Piedra se acab ynopor falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petrleo se acabar pronto ynopor falta de petrleo.

www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 49. Trespolticaspetroleras:

Del pasado(basada en precios)

Del presente(basada en volmenes)

Del futuro(basada en valor agregado)

www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 50. From manufacturing tomindfacturing 51. We need toadd value 52.

Finlandia

(siglo XIX)

Pas pobre

Atrasado

Colonia

Idiomabrbaro

53. Bioenergy andeternalenergy

Photosynthesis:

• CO 2+ 2 H 2 O +light

• ->(CH 2 O) + O 2+ H 2 O

From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates

Craig Venter and his artificial bacteria

54. NASA : Space Solar Power Strategy Complete Initial R&D for1 MW to Full-Scale SSP2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2002 Studies & Proof-of-Concept Technology Research (TRL 2-4) Technology Research, Developmentand Test(TRL 4-5) Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6) Technology Demos(TRL 6-7) LEGEND R&DDecision Point Major R&D Pgm Milestone Strategic R&T Road Map Objective MSC 3 10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7)Complete Initial SSP Technology Researchfor 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale SystemsComplete Initial R&D for1 MW to Full-Scale SSPTechnology Testbeds MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo 50 M Classflight expt. (incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) Component-Level Flight Experiments Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Large structures for large apertures & solar sails Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments High Efficiency Arrays for S/C SSP Concept definition complete Ground Test very large deployable structures 1 MW Class SSP advancedtechnology subsystem flight demos(SPG/SEPS/WPT) High Power SEPS For Science Probes Lunar Power, Large SEPS High-Power GEO CommSats MSC 2 10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo SSP Model System Concept(s) MSC 4+ (2020+) FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 10 kW 100 kW 1MW 55. 56. JAXA :Space Solar Power Strategy 57. Qu es el futuro?

El futuro ya no es

lo que era antes!

Lo que hoy se vive no es el acabose, sino apenas el continuose de lo que empezose ya mucho ha.

Mafalda

www.FuturoVenezuela.net Sociedad Mundial del Futuro VENEZUELA 58. Attitudes towards the future

Passive ( ostrich ) Suffer the future

Reactive ( fire fighter ) Respond

Preactive ( insurer ) Prepare

Proactive ( builder ) Create

59. 60. Sir ArthurC. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro 61. The Three Laws ofSir Arthur C. Clarke

First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.

Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

62. Technologies of thepast

30 years ago

• Personal computers

20 years ago

• Cell phones

10 years ago

• Google

What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years?

• Immortal (ageless) cells!

63. Physical Immortality: Death of Death 1. Reproductive cells (good) 2. Cancer cells (bad) www.Mprize.org 64. NBIC ( N ano- B io- I nfo- C ogno) National Science Foundation Department of Commerce 65. Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological ConvergenceNBIC Nano Bits Atoms 66. Technological convergenceis accelerating and everything isinformation 67. Ray Kurzweil (MIT ): The Singularity is Near

www.singularity.com

Bill Gates

Ley de Moore

68. www.top500.org 69. Moores Wall? Thermionic Tube Transistor IC1 IC2 IC3 IC4 IC5 ICn 194019601980200020202040

3D ICs

Quantum computing

Subatomic particles

Log Scale No! 70. 1. Nano ( N BIC) 71. Nanotec h nolog y: www.nano.gov 72. 73. 2. Bio (N B IC) 74. The glo -fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan) 75. 76. Dolly: theclone 77. Singapore:Biopolis 2012 78. Russia:??? 79. Korea: Hwang Woo-suk ( Snuppy ) 80. 81. The attack of the clones? 82. Synthetic biologyis born

Variola virus (smallpox)

• Genes: 197

• Base pairs: 185,000

Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)

• Genes: 485

• Base pairs: 580,000

Homo sapiens sapiens

• Genes: ~25,000

• Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000

83. 3. Info (NB I C) 84. MITMedia Lab:$100 laptop 85. 86. 87. 88. 89. The 3 Laws ofKnowledge

Law of Nodes

• ( N units )

Law of Metcalfe

• ( N x N conexions )

Law of Reed

• ( exp.N Knowledge )

90. Global brain? 91. 92. 4. Cogno (NBI C ) 93. Thetriune brain : Paul MacLean, 1973

Reptilian (primitive):instincts

Limbic (paleomammalian):emotions

Neocortex (neomammalian):intelligence

94. Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp 95. Riken Brain Institute www.brain.riken.go.jp 96. Paul Allen:www.BrainAtlas.org 97.

1 brain

10 11neurones

10 14synapsis

10 17computations

(per second)

And the mind?

And the spirit?

And the soul?

What is abrain ? 98. Internal brain implants:Cyberkinetics Inc. 99. External brain implants 100. Robots in Japan and Korea 101. Asimo (Honda) evolution 102. 103. 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Robots aregoodin Japan 111. 112. Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg www.KevinWarwick.org 113. Humansandmachines! Humansormachines? 114. Marvin Minsky(MIT): Will robots inherit the earth?Yes, but they will be us ! 115. Bart Kosko, USC : Biology is not destiny. It was never more than tendency. Biology was just nature's first quick and dirty way to compute with meat. Chips are destiny! 116. Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations www.TransHumanismo.org Are humanstrans-monkeys ? 117. 118. Transhumanism, yes... butcarefully Homo sapienssapiens 119. Superman? Christopher Reeve ( paraplegic ) 120. StephenHawking 121. Michael J. Fox:Back to the Future 122. Ronald Reagan: Alzheimers 123. Space: the final frontier? 124. SpaceShipOne : Virgin Galactic 2011 125. The brain: the final frontier! 126. Yin-yang (and moreyin-yang ) 127. Light upthe world 128. 129. The world isone 130. Guru Cordeiromeditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism) 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Muchas gracias! www.Cordeiro.org