Electing the President, 2004

Matthew DowdChief Campaign Strategist, Bush Campaign

2004

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Electing the President, 2004

Learning from 2000, Preparing for 2004:

1. Started Planning Immediately after 20002. Approached 2004 Differently (than 2000)

a. Focus: Motivation over Persuasion3. Person to Person Contact (Rather than Phone-Banking)

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Electing the President, 2004

Motivation and Persuasion:

1. Swing Voters: Not many Left in US, Most Voters have Made Up Their Mind2. Motivation and Persuasion: Became Equal in 2004.3. Motivation and Persuasion: Split Time in 2004.

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Electing the President, 2004

Challenges in 2004:

1. Challenger versus Incumbency a. Incumbents: more susceptible to natural conditions

2. Rise of the Internet a. changing how people interact, how people seek informationb. Howard Dean: Net-roots fundraising

3. Research:

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Electing the President, 2004

Core Campaign Goal: 3 percent

Bush got 48% of the vote in 2000. Goal: how does the campaign get to 51% (add 3 points)?

Where will the campaign picked up 3 percent?1. Women2. Men (deepen Loyalty)3. Latinos 4. More Republicans5. African Americans

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Electing the President, 2004

Media Strategy: Paid versus Unpaid (Free)

Strategic Assumptions: Democratic Nominee: 1. Democratic nominee: Quickly chosen2. Democratic nominee: not highly vetted (primaries were too short)

a. John Kerry: not nationally vetted.

Strategy: Have Republicans tell Kerry’s StoryFocus on the question of credibility.

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Electing the President, 2004

Public opinion and the Campaign

Approval Rating versus Right/Wrong TrackApproval rating matters, right or wrong track does not (unless the country is way off track).

a. Reelection: people want change (but only if your approval is below 40%) b. Incumbency: it only hurts if your promos and 40%

President Bush and Approval Rating : Bush is a middle ground in terms of approval. He was at risk for defeat.

Strategy: Bush ReelectionFocus on establishing a sharp contrast between Bush and Kerry:

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Electing the President, 2004

Strategy: Bush Reelection: Bush versus Kerry

Kerry and Credibility1. Needs a problematize Kerry’s credibility

a. make it so even if Kerry attacks Bush people not believe Kerry ( because

of his lack of credibility).b. Undermine Kerry’s ability to make credible arguments against Bush.c. Is this going negative?

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Electing the President, 2004

Values and Presidential CampaignsPresidential campaigns are always about values.

Values Question:1. Which candidate supports your values?2. How do campaigns communicate values?

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Electing the President, 2004

Did Kerry Lose Because of Same Sex Amendments?Bush was reelected and 11 states passed amendments banning same sex marriage.

Electing the President, 2004

Campaigns Strategy: Field OperationsThe focus in the field campaign was defined more Republicans nationally.

Field Strategies:1. Micro-targeting: Used consumer databases to identify Republicans by

purchasing habits: Republicans reach certain magazines, drinks or excessive alcohol, subscribe to specific magazines.

2. Mining Precincts: Most Republicans do not live in Republican Precincts

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Electing the President, 2004

Campaigns Strategy: Internet OperationsThe focus in the field campaign was defined more Republicans nationally.

Internet Strategies:1. Fundraising: the campaign did not raise money online2. TV ads: did not buy ads on news channels (fewer Republicans watched

the news and Democrats). To reach Republicans the purchase ads on Golf channel, Discovery, Fox, etc.

Republicans and the media: 1. They distrust the networks2. Leaving networks for cable news in order to get “information they trust.”3. Are they trying to avoid bias?

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Electing the President, 2004

Campaigns Strategy: 2010?

“Hate is stronger than love, but in 2004 voters supported Bush because they liked him.”

How would you apply this advice to 2010, given that Obama has it 80% approval rating amongst Democrats?

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