The Recent Disconnect betweenThe Recent Disconnect between Political Elites
& the Mass Public
Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D.
Professor & former department chairProfessor & former department chair
Department of Public & International Affairs
University of North Carolina Wilmington
www.uncw.edu/people/lowery
The political system
IN U S OU U SGINPUTS OUTPUTSGOVERNMENT
Executive• Executive
• Legislature
Mass public
Movements
Regulations
Statutes• Judiciary
MovementsInterest groupsPolitical parties
Statutes
Court decisions
F
Media
FEEDBACK LOOP
2
Across U.S. history, political y, pmovements have most ft i doften organized as ‐‐
A. Political interest groups
B. Political parties
C. Both about equally
For most of U.S. history, we’ve had two major political parties because we’ve also had:because we ve also had:
A Two major ideologicalA. Two major ideological groups: conservatives & liberalsliberals
B. Winner‐take‐all elections
C. Both
D. Neither
100GOVT. GUARANTEED
Political ideologies
80
90
GUEQUALITY
60
70
Issu
es
40
50
l Rig
hts
I
20
30Civ
il
10
20
00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
LIBERTY 5
GOVT.GUARANTEED
ORDERCivil Liberties Issues
The father of the U.S.The father of the U.S. Constitution assumed that the best guarantee of good government was:government was:
A. Electing good leaders
B. Checks & balances on
leadersleaders
Madison’s assumptions• Human nature
Of fl d b lf i h i–Often flawed by self‐interest, haste, passion, and short‐sightedness
–True of even the “best and the brightest” in both the mass public and the educated elites
• Best approximation of the common good–Bargaining and compromise between–Bargaining and compromise between competing interests
R l d id h l–Rarely does one side have a monopoly on wisdom and virtue 7
The recent disconnect
• Political polarization in elites:– inside government
– outside governmentoutside government
• Political cynicism in the public
8
Decline in the public’st t i ttrust in government
9http://electionstudies.org/nesguide/toptable/tab5a_5.htm
Major sources of elite jpolarization are recent h ichanges in ‐‐
A. Elections
B. Mass communications
hC. Both
D N ithD. Neither
Congressional safe seatsCongressional safe seats
• http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012‐house/rticles/category/2012 house/
• http://www realclearpolitics com/epolls/2012• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html
11
Three other related sources of elite polarization are changes in ‐‐
1 Party coalitions1. Party coalitions
2 P liti l i2. Political careerism
3. Economic inequality
12
13Piketty and Saez, (2007). Income and Wage Inequality in the U.S.
http://g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/topincomes/#Home:
Polarization in Congress
14McCarty, Poole, & Rosenthal, Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (2006)http://voteview.com/polarized_america.htm
15McCarty, Poole, & Rosenthal, Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (2006)http://voteview.com/polarized_america.htm
Wealth gap betweenth bli & Cthe public & Congress
Sources: Center for Responsive Politics; US Census; Edward Wolff, Bard College.
16
p ; ; , g
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/oss/oss2/2007/scf2007home.htmlhttp://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/overview.php?type=W&year=2009&filter=C
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/11/congressional-members-personal-weal.html
10 richest members of Congress( ll 10 t d t t d B h’ t t f th i h)(all 10 voted to extend Bush’s tax cuts for the rich)
MEMBER MAX. EST. NET WORTH
Rep. Darrell Issa (R‐Calif.) $451.1 millionp ( ) $Rep. Jane Harman (D‐Calif.) $435.4 millionRep. Vern Buchanan (R‐Fla.) $366.2 million
$Sen. John Kerry (D‐Mass.) $294.9 millionRep. Jared Polis (D‐Colo.) $285.1 millionSen Mark Warner (D‐Va ) $283 1 millionSen. Mark Warner (D Va.) $283.1 millionSen. Herb Kohl (D‐Wisc.) $231.2 million
Rep. Michael McCaul (R‐Texas) $201.5 millionSen. Jay Rockefeller (D‐W.Va.) $136.2 millionSen. Dianne Feinstein (D‐Calif.) $108.1 million
COMBINED NET WORTH: $2 8 BILLION
17
COMBINED NET WORTH: $2.8 BILLIONhttp://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/index.php
http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/senate/2/276?ref=politicshttp://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/house/2/647
Across U.S. history, which ypolitical party has always fa ored a strong federalfavored a strong federal government?g
A. Democratic PartyA. emocratic Party
B. Republication PartyB. Republication Party
C NeitherC. Neither
Polarizing issues& two‐party systems___________________________________
1. 1788 Founding
2 18242. 1824 Nation Building
3. 1860 Civil War & Reconstruction
4. 1896 Industrial Revolution
5. 1932 New Deal
6. 1968 De‐alignment
19
g
7. 2004 ??
Since the 1930s, which ,party has gained more
t ?supporters?
A. Democratic Party
B. Republican Party
C. Neither
Change in party support(1930s to present)(1930s to present)
21http://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2008_06_01_archive.html
Compared to politicalCompared to political elites, the mass public is ‐‐, p
A. More polarized
B. Equally polarized
C. Less polarized
How polarized was the 2008presidential electorate?
Electoral-vote winner by state Popular-vote division by county
23http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
Useful sourcesUseful sources
• Abramowitz The Disappearing Center: Engaged• Abramowitz, The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy
• Fiorina Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized• Fiorina, Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America
• Fiorina Disconnect: The Breakdown of• Fiorina, Disconnect: The Breakdown of Representation in American Politics
M & O t i It' E W Th It L k• Mann & Ornstein, It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremismf
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