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Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers...

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Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap Neville Jackson Deputy Chair, Automotive Council Technology Group Chief Technology & Innovation Officer, Ricardo plc www.automotivecouncil.co.uk October 2017
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Page 1: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap

Neville Jackson

Deputy Chair, Automotive Council Technology Group

Chief Technology & Innovation Officer, Ricardo plc

www.automotivecouncil.co.uk

October 2017

Page 2: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

Data & cyber security – developing methodologies & setting standards

Infrastructure & Connectivity – device/car connectivity to increased V2X functionality to vehicle as part of

IoT/Cloud

Business models – ride sharing & goods mobility sharing to increased service offerings to end to end on

demand solutions

Regulation/Legislation - AV safety assurance/resilience capability, punitive safety regulations, restrictions

on manual driving

Architecture/Enablers – Growth in on-board HPC, power consumption reduction and safety critical

connectivity capability

Hardware Life Cycles* - linked to computational capability & functionality – ability to accommodate

increased processing requirement may temper long term targets

Electrical/Electronic Architectures: Business & Market Drivers

Attributes Short Term Medium Term Long Term

Compute Power 1014 1018 1021

Software Complexity 10x 1000x 108x

On board power demand <200 w 1-4 kW <1 kW

Hardware life cycle 5-7 years ~2 years <1 year *

Page 3: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar
Page 4: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

Initial challenge will

be to develop a safety

assurance system for

Autonomous control

to enable commercial

rollout

By 2025, safety

regulations will

demand a wide

range of ADAS

systems – with

severe penalties for

accidents caused

by human error Ultimately, manual or

Human driving may be

considered too

dangerous and restricted

to dedicated areas

Ride & Goods delivery

sharing will transition to

an on-demand service –

ultimately offering a fully

connected end to end

mobility solution

Computational power consumption will grow

with more automated functionality leading to

power consumption challenges – potentially

to technologies “beyond silicon”

Electrical/Electronic Architectures Roadmap shows evolution to self aware

fully integrated/connected hardware & software

Page 5: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

5 Core domains in Electrical/Electronic architectures – all

interact and exhibit critical dependencies – particularly skills

Estimated increases in computer power and software

complexity (consistent with Virtual Product

Development roadmap). On-board computational

capability probably 1 or 2 orders of magnitude lower

due to robustness and environmental requirements

If function is driven by

computational power,

processing hardware lifecycles

~1 year unless hardware is

more resilient to MIPS growth

Electrical/Electronic Architectures Roadmap shows evolution to self aware

fully integrated/connected hardware & software

Page 6: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

The drive for increased

consumer functionality

delivered via open

architectures - these will

attract new players – who

will offer a seismic

challenge to existing OEMs

Transition from

distributed to domain

or zonal centric to

High Performance

Neural Net

dedicated hardware

– power reductions

might require move

beyond silicon

SOA delivers a vendor

independent service

for new products and

technologies

Sensor fusion leads to

virtual sensor/cognitive

systems & new

human/digital interfaces

Move to

“Hypervisor”

or similar

structure to

co-ordinate on

& off vehicle

processing &

functionality

Electrical/Electronic Architectures Roadmap shows evolution to self aware

fully integrated/connected hardware & software

Page 7: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

Transition

implies highly

disruptive shift

away from

current product

development

approaches

Increasing use of SIL/HIL

but final validation

remains real world tests

Increasing level of safety

critical systems will drive

need for faster than real time

validation in virtual world

Quantity &

complexity will drive

auto-generation via

Machine Learning/AI

processes with auto

FMEA & QA built in

Ultimately, most

functionality likely to be

derived via cognitive

and self learning

systems

Real world testing evolves to virtual

environment reducing time & cost

of hard/software development

New agile “digital”

development methods

& skill sets consistent

with “Virtual Product

Engineering” roadmap

Electrical/Electronic Architectures Roadmap shows evolution to self aware

fully integrated/connected hardware & software

Page 8: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

Incumbents will take a lead

role evolving existing

infrastructure (invest in entire

new infrastructures very

unlikely – wired or wireless)

Evolves in conjunction with

roadside infrastructure operators

e.g. Traffic Signalling Companies

& Highways Agencies

Broadcast / Sat comms

adoption will depend on

business model and

price tipping point

DSR evolved as

standard for short range

V2V communications –

likely to remain until

requirements exceed

capabilities

Ultimately move to “hybrid”

using “swarm” comms for

improved V2V type co-

ordination of autonomous

functions

Increasing capability of

V2I/I2V communications

enable much more

powerful cloud based

multi-vehicle optimisation

Electrical/Electronic Architectures Roadmap shows evolution to self aware

fully integrated/connected hardware & software

Page 9: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

To provide insurers & consumers the means for

assessing risks & provide suppliers the cyber-

security assurance services to ensure on-going

consumer confidence in their products

Based on existing

methodologies – leveraging

best practice from other sectors

Assurance framework must

maturely demonstrate agility to

respond to ever-evolving threats

Moving from new business

models to new economic models

Ultimately, system must be able to

“self protect” and respond or adapt

to new threats whilst in operation,

evolving continuously

Initially working with existing

regulations & defining future needs

Electrical/Electronic Architectures Roadmap shows evolution to self aware

fully integrated/connected hardware & software

Page 10: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

Skills from Gaming, FinTech, Social

Media, Legal & Academia critical in

enabling next gen systems - first steps

via cross sector transfer

Increasing need for dedicated cyber &

communications specialists in Automotive

with skills that cross traditional boundaries

AI & Machine Learning skills will be a

fundamental building block for future

hardware & software systems via auto

optimised design/verification processes

Skills in developing and

understanding the virtual

environment are critical in

enabling Virtual Test,

Validation and Verification

Electrical/Electronic Architectures Roadmap shows evolution to self aware

fully integrated/connected hardware & software

Page 11: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar
Page 12: Electrical and Electronic Architectures Roadmap · 2020. 11. 18. · Architecture/Enablers –Growth in on-board HPC, ... human/digital interfaces Move to “Hypervisor” or similar

Acknowledgements: Support & feedback from Auto Council & AESIN working

group

Neville Jackson – Ricardo/Auto Council

Paul Jarvie – AESIN/NMI

Alastair McGibbon – AESIN/NMI

Steve Heinrich - Lotus/Auto Council

Richard York - ARM

Nick Smith - Mentor Graphics

Harita Joshi - University of Warwick

Martin Green - Visteon

Bryce Johnstone – Imagination Tech.

David Biddlecombe – Ford

Joachim Tachtler – BMW

Will Drury - Ricardo

Ashish Naik – National Instruments

Alan Banks – Visteon

Stuart Bird - Visteon

David Battersby – Jaguar Landrover

Jon Clark – TATA TMTC

Clinton Forde – Aston Martin

Andrew Ashby – Ricardo/AESIN

Pete Lockhart - Roke Manor

Harman Hunjan - Renesas

Mike Welsh - Altran

Steve Neill - Infineon

Mike Bartley - TVS

Boa Gao – AVL

Iain Fleming – SAIC

Support & Feedback Provided by:


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