ELECTRICITY AND OUR FUTURECWLP’S INTEGRATED RESOUCE PLAN
Micah Bushnell, PEDirector of Planning & Markets
6/11/2018 1
Agenda
• IRP DEFINED
• WHY DO WE NEED AN IRP?
• IRP PROCESS
• INPUTS, ASSUMPTIONS & OUTPUTS
• PORTFOLIOS & OPTIONS
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IRP Defined
An Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is the result of a comprehensive planning study, which provides a recommended mix of supply‐ and demand‐side resources a utility may use to meet its customers’ future electricity needs.
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What’s Included
• A forecast over a 20‐year time horizon.
• An assessment of supply‐side generation resources.
• An economic appraisal of renewable and non‐renewable resources.
• An assessment of feasible conservation and efficiency resources.
• A least‐cost plan for meeting the utility’s requirements.
• An action plan.
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CWLP Energy Growth
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
2,400,000
Decide to BuildDallman 4
545,000 MWh (25%)Short of Projection
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US Electricity Consumption
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Twh / Year
KWh / Year
Per Capita (Left Axis) Total US (Right Axis)
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CWLP Demand Growth
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Decide to BuildDallman 4
117MW (23%)Short of Projection
7
Forward WholeSale Power Prices(Indiana Hub | On-Peak | 12 mo. Strip | Rolling Avg.)
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
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Why Does CWLP Need an IRP?
• Unprecedented Load Decline
• CAPEX for Environmental Regulations
• Low Energy & Capacity Prices
• Decreasing Costs of Gas, Wind & Solar
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IRP Process Step 1Load Forecast
• Econometric Load Forecast
• 20 Years
• Energy & Demand
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IRP Process Step 2Market Model → Prices
ABB PROMOD
INPUTS/ASSUMPTIONS
• MISO MTEP• Gas Price• Load Levels• Energy Efficiency• Demand Response• Gas Additions• Renewables Add’s• Coal/Nuc Retirements• Gas Retirements• Emission Regulations
PROJECTED MARKET PRICES(20 Years x 9 Scenarios) 11
IRP Process Step 3CWLP Model → Op mal Por olios
ABB e7CAPACITY
EXPANSION
Plant Costs
• Fixed• Variable (coal, water,ammonia, etc.)
• CAPEX (environmental upgrades, turbine overhauls, etc.)
Portfolio Options
• Retirements• Natural Gas• Wind• Solar• Storage• Demand Side• Etc.
Market Prices
• Output from ABB PROMOD PORTFOLIO RESULTS (x9)
• Optimal Portfolio• 2nd Optimal Portfolio• 3rd Optimal Portfolio• 4th Optimal Portfolio• Etc.
Load Forecast
• Econometric Forecast Developed by TEA
Transmission Costs
• For Retirements or Additions
12
IRP Process (Step 4)
• TEA Presents Results
• Create the Action Plan
• Execute the Action Plan
13
CWLP Decisions
• What are the nine Market Scenarios to give the model?
• What Portfolio Options should the model be allowed to make?
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MISO’s 4 MTEP Cases
MISO Transmission Expansion Plan (MTEP) is MISO’s industry vetted process to make billions of dollars in transmission investments. TEA will use MISO’s four (out of the nine) MTEP cases
1. Continued Fleet Change (BASE CASE )
2. Limited Fleet Change
3. Accelerated Fleet Change
4. Distributed & Emerging Technologies
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MISO’s 4 MTEP Cases
1. Continued Fleet Change (BASE CASE )
– Coal (and Nuclear) units continue to retire being replaced by gas, wind, et al, at an expected rate.
2. Limited Fleet Change
– Coal (and Nuclear) units continue to retire being replaced by gas, wind, et al, slower than expected.
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MISO’s 4 MTEP Cases
3. Accelerated Fleet Change
– Coal (and Nuclear) units continue to retire being replaced by gas, wind, et al., faster than expected.
4. Distributed & Emerging Technologies
– Renewable resources, distributed solar, electric vehicles, et al. enter the market faster than expected.
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Five Additional Scenarios
TEA/CWLP selects five more scenarios, possibly including:
5. Low Carbon Regulation
6. Strict Carbon Regulation
7. High Renewable Penetration
8. Low Load (CWLP Load)
9. Seasonal Extremes
10.High Coal Price
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WIND
Build/Own/Operate
Power Purchase Agreement
SOLARBuild/Own/Operate
Power Purchase Agreement
Feasible Portfolio Additions(Renewables)
LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY
HI
LO
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Feasible Portfolio Additions(Natural Gas)
Advanced Combined Cycle
Conventional Combined Cycle
Advanced Combustion turbine
Conventional Combustion Turbine
Reciprocating engines
OPERATING COST INVESTMENT COST
LO
HI
HI
LO
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Feasible Portfolio Additions(Other)
Battery Storage
Demand Side Management – Peak
Demand Side Management – Base
Energy & Capacity Market Purchases
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Questionable Portfolio Additions
Biomass
Landfill Gas
Fuel Cells
Hydro
Coal
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Unlikely Portfolio Additions
Nuclear
Offshore Wind
Solar Thermal
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Summary
Portfolio Options
• Retirements• Natural Gas• Wind• Solar• Storage• Demand Side• Etc.
Portfolio Results (x9)
• Optimal Portfolio• 2nd Optimal Portfolio• 3rd Optimal Portfolio• 4th Optimal Portfolio• Etc.
Market Scenarios
1)Continued Fleet Change2)Limited Fleet Change3)Accelerated Fleet Change4)Distributed & Emerging Tech.
5)Low Carbon Regulation6)Strict Carbon Regulation7)High Renewable Penetration8)Low Load (CWLP Load)9)Seasonal Extremes10)High Coal Price
[email protected] June 28
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