electr ici t y
What is PLEXOS?
Why use PLEXOS?
Who uses PLEXOS?
Support
Training
Implementation
Datasets
Customisations
Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning
Transmission Planning Analysis
Demand Modelling
System Security and Adequacy
Ancillary Services and Energy Co-Optimisation
Optimally Times Maintenance
Dispatch Optimisation
Renewable Energy Planning and Integration
Storage
Multi-Stage Hydro and Storage Optimisation
Market Analysis for Trading and Hedging
Risk Analysis
Electricity and Gas Co-Optimisation
The PLEXOS Integrated Energy Model
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Contents
Services
PLEXOS Applications in Electricity
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 3
What is PLEXOS
PLEXOS is economic software that uses
mathematically based optimisation techniques
for forecasting.
PLEXOS is easy to use and offers the latest data
handling, visualisation features, and distributed
computing methods, to provide a high-
performance, robust simulation system for
electric power, water and gas.
Why use PLEXOS
An investment in PLEXOS is a small outlay compared
to the enormous benefits that are realised from
savings in costs, better ways to maximise profits and
from achieving more accurate planning results.
PLEXOS is not a Black Box and is highly configurable
by the user. It offers cutting edge access to some of
the most advanced algorithms and modelling
techniques thus giving the user peace of mind and a
real life simulation experience.
Who uses PLEXOS
PLEXOS integrated software offers something for
everyone, making its applications highly useful to a
variety of users and needs.
Current users include:
• Departments of Energy and Ministries
• Market Operators, Regulators and Commissions
• Electricity Generators, Traders and Retailers
• Transmission System Operators
• Power Plant Manufacturers and Construction companies
• Gas Producers, Traders and Retailers
• LNG Operators and Traders
• Consultants, Analysts and Research Institutions
• Academics
It’s more than software – it’s a VIP gateway to a
global community of users in over 43 countries.
Expand your network and join the rapidly growing
community of PLEXOS users.
The PLEXOS Integrated Energy Model
S U PP O RT
Providing the best support is our first priority at Energy Exemplar.
Our philosophy is to staff well and keep employing ahead of the curve. We
currently have 25 PLEXOS experts in various regions and another 15 full time
developers who are well placed to respond to your needs. All PLEXOS licenses
come with free and unlimited support.
TR A I N I N G
PLEXOS comes with comprehensive help files and a built in electronic Wiki.
However, there is no substitute for taking one of our training courses. Select from
a range of generic and customisable training courses which help new users get
started or help more intermediate and advanced modellers improve their skills.
Group training is also held in each region from time to time.
I M PLE M E NTATI O N
The best forecasts come from a well calibrated and back-tested model. Energy
Exemplar’s PLEXOS analysts have a wealth of modelling experience from all over
the world and undertake customised implementation projects very regularly.
Some examples include dataset builds and back-tests, assistance with modelling
configurations for projects, software optimisation for speed and accuracy,
software installations, client-server configuration, automation of data entry and
customised reports that link directly to simulation outputs.
DATA S ET S
Energy Exemplar have close to 30 datasets from all over the world in PLEXOS
form and this number is growing as we are always working on a new one! If we
don’t have a certain country, we can work to build one on request.
C U STO M I SATI O N S
If there is a feature you need which we don’t have, you may request it and we
will build it as part of a future release at no cost providing the benefit exists for
other users as well. Alternatively, our development team regularly work on
exclusive bespoke customisation projects. PLEXOS also comes with the Open-
PLEXOS tool which allows users to make customisable changes by programming
PLEXOS how you like.
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p.4
Ser vices
Long Term Capaci ty Expans ion Planning
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 5
“PLEXOS HAS BEEN THE ‘ALL IN ONE TOOL’ FOR US FOR SUCH ANALYSIS, FROM MARKET MODELLING TO PL ANNING, FORECASTING AND OPTIMISATION. WITH ITS PERFECTLY DESIGNED GUI, WE HAVE SAVED GREAT EFFORT IN FORMUL ATING COMPLEX PROBLEMS AS WELL AS GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME WITH ITS FAST AND FLEXIBLE SIMUL ATIONS.”
Mutlu Yildir im
ETRM, Turkey
COMPLEX PROBLEMS REQUIRE POWERFUL TOOLS.
Let the advanced a lgor i thms in PLEXOS provide the cer ta int y of what, when, or where to
opt imal ly invest or ret i re f rom the point of v iew of consider ing generat ion and
t ransmiss ions across e lec tr ic i t y, gas and water.
Physical Generation and Load Contracts
Any Type of Generating
Technologies
TransmissionDynamics
Multi-Stage Generation & Transmission
Projects
Demand Side Participation
PLEXOSLT PLAN
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning p. 6
Ass ign pract ica l ly any ru le wi th the constra int, decis ion var iable
and condit ional c lasses .
LT Plan Model l ing Features
• Regional capaci ty reserve margins & anci l lary serv ices .
• Maximum number of uni ts bui l t and ret i red.
• Technica l and F inancia l l i fe spans .
• Fuel ava i labi l i ty and maximum fuel usage.
• Minimum energy product ion.
• Cogenerat ion and other must-run condit ions .
• Emiss ion product ion l imi ts and Renewable Energy Targets .
• Hydroelectr ic s torage targets and re leas ing pol ic ies .
LT Plan
Optimal Investment
MT Schedule
ResourceAllocation
PASA
Optimal Reserve Sharing &
Maintenance Schedule
ST Schedule
ChronologicalCommitment
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning p. 7
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Who uses PLEXOS LT Plan?
The LT Plan i s fu l ly integrated with the other PLEXOS s imulat ion phases to ensure
seamless solut ions . Users can run the LT Plan e i ther separately or in sequence with any
other phase. Once an investment decis ion is made in the LT Plan, th is i s automat ica l ly
passed down to other integrated PLEXOS tools , such as ST which emulates a market
c lear ing engine for more deta i led analys is .
Worldwide, an increas ing number of Ut i l i t ies , Consul tants , Regulators and Independent
System Operators use PLEXOS LT Plan for their capaci ty expans ion model l ing. The
Austra l ian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) re l ies on PLEXOS to develop the Nat ional
Transmiss ion Network Development Plan (NTNDP) , for which the model l ing assumpt ions
and PLEXOS LT database can be freely accessed at :
www.aemo.com.au/Electr ic i ty/Planning/Related-Informat ion/Planning-Assumptions
Transmiss ion Planning and Analys is
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 8
DON’T GET tangled up and confused.
LARGE CONNECTION OF MULTIPLE AC AND DC NETWORKS – 10,000’S OF BUSES AND LINES
LOSS MODELLING
SECURITY CONSTRAINTED UNIT COMMITMENT (SCUC), DC LINES AND PHASE SHIFTERS
GENERIC CONSTRAINTS AND INTERFACE LIMITS, WHEELING CHARGES
TRANSMISSION AGGREGATION AND NETWORK REDUCTION
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OUTAGES AND OPTIMAL TRANSMISSION SWITCHING
LOCAL MARGINAL PRICE (LMP) DECOMPOSITION AND FINANCIAL TRANSMISSION RIGHTS (FTR) EVALUATION
NODAL PRICING AND DECOMPOSITION INTO ENERGY, CONGESTION AND MARGINAL LOSS COMPONENTS
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Transmission Planning and Analysis p. 9
PLEXOS is used extens ively by t ransmiss ion system operators (TSO) to opt imise and
analyse the impact of t ransmiss ion operat ion and congest ion costs . The abi l i ty to
model opt imal power flow (OPF) wi th losses i s fu l ly integrated with dispatch and
uni t commitment.
PLEXOS features for t ransmiss ion inc lude:
In addit ion, PLEXOS LT phase a l lows analysts to ident i fy opt imal l ine investment
of t ransmiss ion upgrades and ret i rements .
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Demand Model l ing
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 10
Powered by ADVANCED ALGORITHMS and a R AFT OF FEATURES , the PLEXOS
bui ld tool is the per fect companion for GROWING DEMAND TR ACES .
FORECAST DEMAND BY LINKING VARIABLES l ike temperature
dependency and then append your newly created inputs to dif ferent
models FOR FAST AND EASY SENSITIVIT Y ANALYSIS .
Demand Response Model l ing
FIXED ENERGY LOAD
PRICE DEPENDENT LOAD
RESOURCE PLANNING DEPENDENT LOAD
• Can be used to represent curtailable or shiftable load• Can be used with multi-variable correlated sampling
The PLEXOS 3D Viewer
• Can be defined using piecewise linear price/quantity values• Can represent purchasers & demand side participation at regional, zonal or nodal level
• Can be modelled as expansion anti-generator candidates (with all expansion facets of generators and net negative injection to the system)
• Can be used to model lumpy investment impact at the industrial level
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Demand Modelling p. 11
Demand can be represented as fixed energy, pr ice dependent, or
resource planning dependent.
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System Secur i ty and Adequacy
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 12
“PLEXOS HAS BEEN FASCINATING TO USE TO PRODUCE THE SOUTH AFRICAN INTEGRATED RESOURCE PL AN ( IRP) . THE STOCHASTIC OPTIMISATION ASPECT OF IT WAS HELPFUL TO ESTABLISH THE POSITION OF LEAST REGRET AND WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NEX T IRP WILL BE MORE INFORMATIVE GIVEN THAT PLEXOS HAS GIVEN US NEW QUESTIONS WHICH NEED ANSWERS.”
Sipho Mdhluli
Eskom
System operators and planners the wor ld over RELY ON PLEXOS for
ASSESSING SECURIT Y and ADEQUACY.
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar System Security & Adequacy p. 13
A convolut ion method is used tak ing into account the forced outages
LOLP, LOLE, EDNS & EENS indic ies are ca lculated in the LT Plan and PASA
Mult i -area LOLP index is ca lculated us ing State space decomposi t ion and Monte Car lo
s imulat ion
Secur i ty
Secur i ty constra ined uni t commitment (SCUC) a lgor i thm is used
Cont ingency shi f t factors are ca lculated
‘N-x ’ cont ingency analys is i s supported
Adequacy
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Anci l lary Serv ices and Energy Co-Opt imisat ion
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 14
Ut i l i t ies and sys tem operators must be on h igh a ler t for UNFORESEEN CONTINGENCIES
so as to address IMBAL ANCES IN ELECTRICIT Y MARKETS .
“HAVING COMPLEX MODELS TO BE SOLVED, PLEXOS STILL COMPUTES THE RESULTS IN A FAIR PERIOD OF TIME. THE GRAPHICAL SOLUTION VIEWER ENABLES US TO QUICKLY CHECK OUR MODEL’S CONSISTENCY.”
Hendrik Heese
Borusan EnBW Enerj i
PLEXOS models mult ip le reserve c lasses
Ercot i s one of many ent i t ies who rely on PLEXOS to model reserve provis ions co-opt imised
with generat ion dispatch and uni t commitment to a sub-hour ly level wi th deta i led t reatment
s tar t-up, shut-down, ramping and other constra int interact ion minute by minute.
Ent i t ies across di f ferent countr ies commonly report back changes in a GT ut i l i sat ion v is-à-v is
more efficient plant post deta i led co-opt imisat ion of reserves and energy in PLEXOS.
RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE
LOWER
SPINNING REGULATION OPERATIONALNON-SPINNING
REPLACEMENTNON-SPINNING
LOWER LOWER LOWER
Energy/Ancillary services price forecasts Energy schedule Ancillary services schedule
PLEXOS SCUC & ED ALGORITHM
Energy offers Ancillary service offers Generator constraints Transmission constraints Fuel & emission limits
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Ancillary Services and Energy Co-Optimisation p. 15
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Optimal ly T imes Maintenance
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 16
“PLEXOS IS OUR TOOL OF CHOICE FOR NEM MARKET MODELLING. IT GIVES US THE FLEXIBILIT Y TO SET UP THE MODEL AS WE CHOOSE, AND ITS SCENARIO MANAGEMENT IS VERY SOPHISTICATED, ALLOWING CONSISTENT ASSUMPTIONS TO BE APPLIED TO SHORT, MEDIUM OR LONG-TERM OUTLOOKS.”
Ben Howard
AGL
Optimise maintenance per formed at a company or por t fo l io. Opt imise scarce
resources (e.g. equipment or crew required) across mult ip le maintenance events and
t ime hor izons to minimise costs . Maintenance events can be l inked to other events .
Per form a run e i ther determinis t ica l ly or v ia s tochast ic opt imisat ion. Fr iendly inter face
al lows easy assumpt ion changes in seconds .
CHOOSE ASSETSTEP ONE
TransmissionLines
Gas / WaterPipelines
Generators
YOUR SETTINGSSTEP TWO
SET PLANNEDMAINTENANCE OR ORPASA User DefinedCost
SET FORCED OUTAGE
ASSUMPTIONSOR
Convergent& Normal
Monte Carlo
StochasticOptimisation
SET T IME TO REPAIR Uniform
Lognormal
Exponential
Weibull
SmallestExtreme
Value (SEV)
LargestExtreme
Value (LEV)
Triangular
LOOK AHEAD
OPTIMALLY DISTRIBUTES OUTAGES
NOW CCGT OUT TRANSMISSION LINE OUT FUTURE
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Optimally Times Maintenance p. 17
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PLEXOS Dispatch Opt imisat ion
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 18
“THE SAVINGS GENERATED AFTER INVESTING IN PLEXOS ARE MANY HUNDREDS MORE THAN THE INITIAL OUTL AY. IT ’ S A NO-BRAINER .”
R a zib Dawood
Electric it y Commiss ion of Mal ays ia
LET PLEXOS DECIDE which turn to make nex t.
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar PLEXOS Dispatch Optimisation p. 19
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Uti l i t ies report sav ings in the tens of mi l l ions of dol lars f rom more efficient dispatch
decis ions that lower product ion costs g iven constra ints such as emiss ions .
PLEXOS a lgor i thms offer choices for uni t commitment decis ions .
Mixed integer programming together wi th the abi l i ty to s imulate down to the 1 – minute
level equates to a rea l l i fe- l ike emulat ion of a system. Automate PLEXOS to work in the
background in a “ rea l t ime” environment, regular ly feeding resul ts to operators .
Rounded RelaxationLinear Programming
ALGORITHMS IN PLEXOS
DynamicProgramming
Mixed Integer Programming
COAL
GAS 1WINDNUCLEAR
EMISSIONS CONSTRAINTS
FUEL MIX CONSTRAINTS
TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTS
TARGET POSITION
GAS 3
GAS 2
PHYSICAL CONSTRAINTS
SUPPLY = DEMANDAT EACH INTERVAL
MINIMISE THIS COST
WHILST OBSERVING THIS
Minimise Production Costs and Satisfy Constraints
Renewable EnergyPlanning and Integrat ion
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 20
“PLEXOS IS A VALUED TOOL WHICH PROVIDES CEZ WITH MORE INSIGHT INTO EUROPEAN POWER AND CARBON MARKET DYNAMICS. THE ANALYSIS OF FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE FUTURE BAL ANCE OF POWER SYSTEMS IS BENEFICIAL FOR BOTH TRADING AND INVESTMENT DECISION PURPOSES.”
Zdenek Pek arekCEZ
LET PLEXOS OPTIMALLY GUIDE YOU TO A LOW CARBON FUTURE .
L ife-l ike deta i l captured in sub-hour ly s imulat ions wi th correc t solut ions del ivered
through Mixed Integer Programming as back-up generat ion s teps in to fi l l the gaps
lef t behind f rom intermit tency.
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Renewable Energy Planning and Integration p. 21
43 countr ies re ly on PLEXOS for renewable s tudies .
Contact Energy Exemplar for access to papers and publ icat ions .
USA’s PJM use
PLEXOS for the
Clean Power Plan.
AUSTRALIA’s
AEMO publ ished
nat ional s tudies
in PLEXOS format
for download.
CHILE’s Coordinador
Electr ico Nacional
re l ies on PLEXOS for
long term nat ional
renewable plans .
PLEXOS is heavi ly used
by the main author i t ies
for renewable
integrat ion s tudies in
INDIA as 170GW is
targeted by 2022.
90% of EUROPE’s
ut i l i t ies market
re l ies on PLEXOS
for carbon t rading
management.
The re levance is universa l :
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Renewable Energy Planning and Integration p. 22
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Key PLEXOS Capabi l i t ies
PLEXOS has kept pace with disrupt ive and innovat ive advancements in energy storage,
smart gr ids and electr ic vehic les .
Sub-hour ly model l ing (down to 1 minute level ) to represent intermit tent generat ion
Mult i -commodity opt imisat ion by integrat ing mult ip le models
Energy & anci l lary serv ices co-opt imisat ion with renewables
Inter leaved s imulat ion to opt imise uni t commitment and economic dispatch of Day-Ahead
and Real-T ime markets
Stochast ic s imulat ion to model uncerta int ies us ing Monte Car lo s imulat ion or Stochast ic
opt imisat ion
Representat ion of deta i led real l i fe technica l constra ints
Var ious autoregress ive sampl ing models for wind speed, solar radiat ion and
natura l inflows
THE BATTERY
CLASS
Electric Vehicles
CAES
Thermal Storage Systems
Flowing Electrolyte
Batteries
Secondary Batteries
FlywheelBatteries
Storage
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 23
PLEXOS represents a l l types of
ENERGY STOR AGE TECHNOLOGY
for short and long term model l ing.
I t a l lows the COMPUTATION OF
SAVINGS f rom PRODUCTION
COSTS , CONGESTION CHARGES
and REDUCTION IN LOSSES .
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Storage p. 24
CAPACITY (MWh)
SELF DISCHARGE (%/h)
MAX INPUT POWER (MW)
BUILD COST ($/MWh)
ECONOMIC LIFE (years)
TECHNICAL LIFE (cycles)
CALENDAR LIFE (years)
WACC (% p.a.)
FO&M CHARGE ($/kW/year)
Etc.
CHARGE EFFICIENCY (%)
DISCHARGE EFFICIENCY (%)
MAX OUTPUT POWER (MW)
MAX SoC (%)
MIN SoC (%)
INITIAL SoC (%)
Long-term Appl icat ions
Can carry out cost-benefit analys is of t ransmiss ion and dis t r ibut ion network deferra ls
Can assess potent ia l benefits f rom reduced transmiss ion congest ion
Can model gr id s tabi l i sat ion and t ransmiss ion loss reduct ion
Short-term Appl icat ions
Can solve chronologica l uni t commitment us ing a sub-hour ly resolut ion
Can opt imise bidding st rategies for energy t ime shi f t ing
Can ident i fy and evaluate revenue st ream opportuni t ies in the energy and reserve market
Can model renewable energy smoothing, peak-shaving and load-level l ing
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An array of micro gr id s tudies publ ished with PLEXOS, thanks to the ‘firs t to market ’
innovat ive PLEXOS battery and flow control c lasses .
Mult i -Stage Hydro and Storage Opt imisat ion
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 25
Demands on generat ion are VOL ATILE , inflows are UNPREDICTABLE
and constra ints are COMPLEX . Thank ful ly the PLEXOS STOCHASTIC
SOLUTION IS NOT…
Because i t ’s jus t as impor tant to KNOW WHAT TO SAVE FOR L ATER .
WIND RAINSOLAR
CASCADES
JUNCTIONS
CANALS
RUN OF RIVER
PUMP STORAGE
SPILLWAYS
IRRIG
ATION
WATER POLICIES
ENVIRONMENTAL
RELEASES
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Multi-Stage Hydro and Storage Optimisation p. 26
Fast and t ransparent s imulat ions for long term investment and short term opt imisat ion are a l l
the more useful when hydro is co-opt imised with other resources .
Integrate complex hydro systems with generation efficiency curves, head storage dependency,
waterway flow delays, evaporation and other factors. Perform determinist ic or multi-stage
stochastic solutions over any horizon. Seamlessly integrate with the hydro-thermal coordination
problem via hydro targets or future cost function decomposit ion.
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Market Analys is for Trading and Hedging
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 27
PLEXOS is the TOOL OF CHOICE FOR HEDGE FUNDS and the world ’s leading
ut i l i t ies for making the best t rading decis ions . PLEXOS is UNIVERSALLY
RELEVANT to any t ype of system, whether a market is present or not.
Apply physica l and financia l contrac ts and load obl igat ions to dynamical ly
modif y generat ion in PLEXOS for OPTIMAL DISPATCH DECISIONS .
Maximise profits wi th the pr ice based uni t commitments a lgor i thms.
“Sample back test Actual vs PLEXOS price in Victoria Australia July 2014.”
SET MINIMUM PROFIT TARGETS
PERFORM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR GENERATION ASSET VALUATION AND RISK ANALYSIS
BETTER UNDERSTAND THE SENSITIVITY OF PRICE FORECASTS AND RESULTING EFFECTS ON DISPATCH DECISIONS AND CASH FLOW VARIATION
PLEXOS | by Energy ExemplarMarket Analysis for trading and hedging
p. 28
Accurate pr ice forecast ing is made easy with PLEXOS in the face of uncerta in
var iables such as demand, weather, p lant fa i lures and fuel shortages. Perform short
and long term forecasts for any system, at the zonal , regional or nodal level .
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Risk Analys is
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 29
Whether you are designing an OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO or STRESS TESTING
an exis t ing one, PLEXOS of fers SEAMLESS MULTI-SCENARIO PL ANNING
aimed at del iver ing an array of outputs for a BET TER INFORMED DECISION .
VALUE AT RISK ( VAR) and EARNING AT RISK (EAR) models are ENHANCED
with the integrat ion of PLEXOS outputs .
IDENTIFY HIGH RISK-LOW COST OR LOW RISK/HIGH COST SOLUTIONS
IDENTIFY KEY INVESTMENTS DECISIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON RISK
Availability
Start ProfilesReserve Requirement Swaption
Cap
ToP FuelContracts
Interruptibility
Volume FlexFixed Costs
& Constraints
Floor
SwingDecision Variables Applied
Swap
PPAsEmission Costs
Variable Costs
Condition Dispatch Settings
Bids
Optimal Dispatch Strategy Optimal Contract Portfolio
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Risk Analysis p. 30
PLEXOS can integrate the Condit ional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in the opt imisat ion
problem to generate an efficient f ront ier of solut ions . Th is can be used to:
PLEXOS can model the uncerta inty of phys ica l and financia l port fol ios determinis t ica l ly
or s tochast ica l ly.
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Phys ica l Port fo l io Financia l Port fo l io
Electr ic i ty and Gas Co-Opt imisat ion
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 31
Plug in PLEXOS for Gas and model the FULL CO - OPTIMISED CHAIN f rom the
GAS PRODUCTION BASIN to the ELECTRON ARRIVING AT ITS DESTINATION .
PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Electricity and Gas Co-Optimisation p. 32
Model l ing commodit ies in their i so lated systems is a th ing of the past .
Many of the WORLD’S LEADING UTILITIES AND ISOs have discovered that
CO - OPTIMISED MODELS del iver BET TER SAVINGS and HIGHER RETURNS to
s takeholders .
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Contact the team at Energy Exemplar
to receive case s tudies showing:
Valuat ion of gas and electr ic s torage opt ions with dual fuel opt imisat ion.
Evolut ion of gas and electr ic cont ingencies and the re l iabi l i ty impacts on the wider system.
Least cost opex and capex co-opt imisat ion of gas and electr ic expans ion and ret i rements .
Emergence of gas constra ints wi th generat ion ret i rements .
Ful l end to end LNG model l ing co-opt imised with e lectr ic i ty.