© OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
IEA Electricity Security Action Plan RD&D activities, gaps and opportunities: IEA Perspective International Energy Agency
Christelle Verstraeten – Energy Analyst
IEA Committee on Energy Research and Technology Experts’ group on R&D priority setting and evaluation – 14 November 2013
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1. Introduction to IEA and IEA’s work on electricity 2. Natural disaster frequency and impact history 3. Resilience dimension in ESAP
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Introduction to the IEA
Formed in the wake of the 1973 oil embargo with a mission to promote member country energy security
Oil: The good old tradition of a geopolitical risk
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Why Electricity at IEA? OECD is significantly electrifying
since the 70’s
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Primary energy use growth in OECD (1970 = 100)
Electricity Other
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1980 1990 2000 2010
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US GDP and power demand growth
GDP Power demand
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It catches up much more rapidly in emerging markets
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oil electricity
China’s consumption as a percentage of US consumption
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So its recent growth is just a taste of things to come
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NPS 450 ppm EU + USA in 2010
Incremental global power generation till 2035, twh
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Context: Drivers for electricity supply
INCREASING PRIMARY
ENERGY DEMAND
DECARBONIZATION OBJECTIVES
ADAPATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
VARIABLE RENEWABLES INTEGRATION
Electricity generation from renewables
sources will triple from
2010 to 2035
(New Policies Scenario–IEA WEO 2012)
Increased occurrences of natural disasters and
related impacts on energy systems
THE FASTEST GROWING ENERGY SOURCE CONSUMED
Global electricity demand projected to increase by
over 70% between
2010 and 2035
(New Policies Scenario–IEA WEO 2012)
FUEL SECURITY
EVOLVING SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT
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Natural factors FLOODING
RISKS
AIR TEMPERATURE
WATER AVAILABILITY
WIND INTENSITY/ STORMS
“A disaster is a serious
disruption of the
functioning of a
community or a society
involving widespread
human, material,
economic or
environmental losses and
impacts, which exceeds the
ability of the affected
community or society to
cope using its own
resources.”
Terminology, UNISDR
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Natural Catastrophes 2011
Natural Catastrophes Selection of significant loss events
Geophysical events (earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic,..) Meterological events (storm)
Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)
Source: 2012 ¨Munich Re – NatCat service
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Temperatures changes scenarios
Global warming predictions based on different emission scenarios - IPCC
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Source: Approaches to setting electric distribution
reliability standards and outcomes – The Brattle Group
January.2012 Source: 5th CEER Benchmarking Report on the Quality of
Electricity Supply - 2011
System Security: Index SAIDI average outage duration for each customer served
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POWER SECURITY CHALLENGES
Affordability Security
Low carbon
Dispatchable solutions
Nuclear
CCS
Variable solutions
Onshore
Offshore
Other
Resilience dimension in all pillars of electricity systems security
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1. FUEL SECURITY: RENEWABLES INTEGRATION – No longer a niche player
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2. INTERCONNECTIONS: As generation capacity?
Source: EWI Cologne, Optimal transmission grid scenario
Can transmission be regarded as a non-scarce resource?
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3. MARKET DESIGN
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Balancing the dimensions - Electricity Security Action Plan (ESAP)
Regional Market Integration
Electricity Networks
(ENIO)
Emergency Preparedness
Generation Investments
Demand Response
ESAP
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Natural disasters and electricity networks
Prevent/anticipate vs. Recovery
LT actions (adaptation) vs. Immediate action (emergency plan)
"It is virtually impossible to protect the system from a storm like Sandy," said Clark Gellings, a fellow at the industry's Electric Power Research Institute. "Can we do a better job at putting it all back together?"
Anticipate Prevent Resist Restore
DISASTER
• Vulnerability of the power system with larger share of RES? • Power network vulnerability • How adaptation to CC is affecting generation adequacy? • Predictability scenarios
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Thank you for your attention
For more information:
http://www.iea.org/topics/electricity/