PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx
Powertrain 2020
Electromobility – The only way forward?
October, 2010
Contents Page
Regulations and resourcesA. 4
Market developmentB. 8
© 2010 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 3PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx
B.
Battery costsC. 21
Summary and conclusionsD. 24
About Roland Berger and eMobilityE. 25
Recently, all G8 countries pledged to limit the increase in global warming to 2°C – Significant efforts from all sectors required
> Reference Scenario of 45% increase in CO2
emissions likely to lead to >5°C global warming
Forecast global CO2 emissions [Gt CO2]
40.6
36.4
32.5
REFERENCE SCENARIO (>5°C global
warming expected)
REGULATIONS AND RESOURCESA l
COMMENTS
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> Transportation sector emissions grow by 39% with all growth outside the OECD
> To keep warming<2°C, major CO2
reductions needto be achieved(Scenario 450)
2020 20302006 2040 2050
Transpor-tation
Powergeneration
Other
Scen. 450
Ref. Scen.
22%
45%
33%
Scen. 450
Ref. Scen.
22%
44%
34%27.9
23%
41%
36%
32.5
25.7
SCENARIO 450(keep global
warming <2°C)
-37%
Source: IEA WEO 2008, Roland Berger
Major transportation countries are largest importers and consumers of oil – Oil supply will peak within the upcoming decades
REGULATIONS AND RESOURCESA l
5PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptxSource: Roland Berger
1) Avg. CAGR 1994-2006 2) Avg. CAGR1995-2005 3) Peak oil supply between 2015 and 2025 4) >50% of oil demand from vehicles
In Europe, CO2 fleet emission targets are toughest and actual emission levels are lowest
COMMENTS4)
CO2 fleet emission targets by region [g/km]1)
> Only the EU has announced a long-term CO2 emission target for 2020
REGULATIONS AND RESOURCESA l
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190168
216
160 167154160130 141
95
-41%-29%
-16%
-27%
157
Actual 2006
Target 20122)
Target 2020
Actual 2006
Target 20163)
1) No cycle conversion considered; gasoline assumed for non-EU countries 2) For 65% of the fleet from 2012 on, gradually increasing to 100% of the fleet by 2015 3) New national fuel-economy program proposed by Barack Obama 4) New passenger vehicle sales5) Target based on draft official automotive fuel-economy standards to improve fuel economy by an additional 18% by 2025
Target 2020
Source: EC; EPA, DOT; NHTSA; JAMA; ICCT; press; Roland Berger
Actual 2006
Target 2010
Target 2015
Actual 2008
Target 20155)
target for 2020
> Obama's more aggressive approach essentially pulls the 2020 NHTSA target forward to 2016
> Japan has only announced a medium-term CO2 emission target
> China has an ambitious CO2
emission target until 2015 –few vehicles in stock
In order to reduce future emissions and conventional fuel dependency, largest transportation regions launch overall programs
Overview of major programs
New energy vehicle policy
Next-generation vehicle and fuel initiative
Electric Vehicle Deployment Act1)
European strategy for the uptake of green vehicles
20102) 20102) 20072) 2006-20102)
REGULATIONS AND RESOURCESA l
7PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptxSource: EC; Clean Future; METI; NORC; MOF; MIIT; MOST; Roland Berger
1) Bill is proposed by three US senators 2) Year published
> Technology-neutral policy framework for clean and energy-efficient vehicles, but preference within EC for EVs
> Promoting vehicles on basis of improved conventional ICEs
> Facilitating deployment of ultra-low-carbon vehicles
> Program to support the nationwide deploymentof EVs
> Significant incentivesgiven to selectedcommunities
> Emphasis on plug-inEVs
> Environmental energystrategy on vehiclesand fuel in Japan
> Five strategies offering diversified technology options
> Areas covered are batteries, fuel cells, clean diesel, biofuel, and traffic flow control
> 3-stage development plan to promote energy-efficient vehicles
> Key policy measures along the entire vehicle value chain
> Increasing focus on hybrid vehicles and EVs
2010 2010 2007 2006-2010
ICE powertrain optimization can help to reduce CO2 reductions by 30% to 40% compared to today
CO2 fleet emissions 2008
CO2 fleet emission targets 2020 2012
Expected ICE optimization
by 20201)
SEGMENT
Large SUV95 g/km 130 g/km 155 g/km
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
European CO2 fleet emissions – 2008 and forecast for 2020
B l
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Shows the market size for a specific vehicle segment
30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 2400 10 20
CO2 EMISSIONS [g/km]
Small (A/B)
Mid-size
Large
Premium
Compact SUV
1) EVs/PHEVs not considered
Source: J.D. Power, Roland Berger
The effective efficiency of an engine can be increased by various measures – Mainly gas exchange and friction losses addressable
Energy losses in combustion process
48%
Combustion processCompression ratioAir/fuel ratio
> The theoretical threshold is defined by the thermodynamic efficiency ηv
> The combustion cycle (higher air/fuel
COMMENTS
MARKET DEVELOPMENTB l
9PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptxSource: FEV; RWTH Aachen; Roland Berger
Effective efficiency
21%
Friction
8%
Wall heat
6%
Non-ideal combustion
6%
Gas exchange
7%
Thermodynamic efficiency
48%
1) Typical part load operating point of naturally aspired gasoline engine (n=2000min-1, pme=2bar)
Direct injectionVariable valve control
Lean combustion(stratified)
Direct injectionVariable valve control
Combustion process(e.g. tumble)
> The combustion cycle (higher air/fuel ratio, higher compression) can increase this value
> Turbo-charging can shift the operating point to a more efficient region
> Gas exchange losses can be decreased by dethrottling (direct injection, variable valve lifting)
> Downsizing can be utilized to decrease mechanical losses (friction)
> Wall heat and losses from non-ideal combustion are difficult to control in the combustion process, thermoelectric approaches under investigation
Gasoline engines' CO2-emissions can be improved by more than 40%
CO2 EMISSIONS
- 4-9%
Start-stop
100%(Today)
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
CO2 reduction potential of gasoline engines compared to today's mainstream engine
B l
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1) E.g. reduced engine friction, integrated exhaust manifold, optimized cooling (incl. adjustable water pump), EPS, aerodynamic optimization, gearbox ratios2) Incl. cylinder reduction 3) Variable valve lift (3 stages, incl. 0-stroke for cylinder deactivation)
NOX EMISSIONS
General improvements1) HybridDownsizing2) 2nd-gen DI (lean) HCCI
(in partial load)
- 7-15%
- 10-13% - 10-14%
NOx after-treatmentrequired
Start-stop- 4-5%
Mild hybrid- 8-12%
Var. valve train3)
- 6-12%
60%(2020)
EURO6
100%
Source: Roland Berger
Currently applied low emission technologies have already reduced gasoline engine CO2-emissions by 15-30%
CO2 emission comparison – Best in class gasoline engines
• Current low emission technology has reduced gasoline engine CO2 emission
250
Engine power [KW]
-29%~3.0L1)
COMMENTS
MARKET DEVELOPMENTB l
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1) Engine displacement
gasoline engine CO2 emission by 15-30% compared with normal technology
• BMW has introduced lean stratified combustion engines(N43/N53), which a substantial advantage especially at high displacements
• Big spread of fuel efficiency (CO2 emission per engine displacement) can be observed
50
100
150
200
80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250
Fiesta 1.6A3 1.6 FSI
B170116i
Insignia 2.0 Turbo
Mondeo 2.0 SCTI
Mondeo 2.0
320i
A4 2.0 TFSI
9-5
Passat
E-classV70
330i
A6
CO2 emission [g/km]
-29%~3.0L1)
~2.0L1)
~1.6L1)
-18%
-19%
Source: Roland Berger
Diesel engines have less CO2 reduction potential (up to 30%) –NOx emissions require HCCI or after-treatment
100%(Today)
- 3-7%Start-stop- 2-4%
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
CO2 reduction potential of diesel engines compared to today's mainstream engineCO2 EMISSIONS
B l
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Today
70%(2020) - 3-5% - 3-5%
- 2-4%
Mild hybrid- 8-10%
- 4-13%
+ /- 0%
EURO6
1) e.g. reduced engine friction, integrated exhaust manifold, optimized cooling (incl. adjustable water pump), EPS, aerodynamics optimization, gearbox ratios
Source: Roland Berger
NOX EMISSIONS
General improvements1) HybridDownsizing2) 2nd-gen DI (lean) HCCI
(in partial load)Var. valve train3)
Additional powertrain costs in 2020 in Europe are an estimatedEUR 400-2,500 per vehicle
Gasoline powertrain Diesel powertrain
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
2,500
B l
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Niche
appl.
900850800
400
A-/B-segment
D-segment
C-segment
E-/F-segment
SUV compact
SUV large
1,500
600750
550500650
SUV large
E-/F-segment
SUV compact
D-segment
C-segment
A-/B-segment
Source: Expert interviews, Roland Berger
EU CO2-emission limits of 95 g/km in 2020 are unlikely to be meet with conventional powertrain technologies
CO2 fleet emissions 2008
CO2 fleet emission targets 2020 2012
Large SUV95 g/km 130 g/km 155 g/km
110 g/kmCO fleet emissions
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
SEGMENT
European CO2 fleet emissions – 2008 and forecast for 2020
B l
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30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 2400 10 20
Small (A/B)
Mid-size
Large
Premium
Compact SUV
110 g/kmCO2 fleet emissions 2020 (estimate)
Gap of >10 g/km
Shows the market size for a specific vehicle segment
CO2 EMISSIONS [g/km]
Source: J.D. Power, Roland Berger
To reach EU CO2-emission limits of 95 g/km in 2020 (partial) Zero Emission Vehicles (EVs or PHEVs) are needed
CO2 fleet emission targets 2020
Large SUV95 g/km
110 g/km
Need for
zero-emission
or partial zero-
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
SEGMENT
European CO2 fleet emissions – 2008 and forecast for 2020
B l
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30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 2400 10 20
Small (A/B)
Mid-size
Large
Premium
Compact SUV
110 g/km
?
?
? 2-4%
5-10%
1-2%
or partial zero-
emission vehicles
Shows the market size for a specific vehicle segment
Source: J.D. Power, Roland Berger
CO2 EMISSIONS [g/km]
Thus, incumbent OEMs also need to focus their Powertrain strategy on "electrification" and Zero Emission Vehicles
CO
MB
US
TIO
N E
NG
INE Integrated
> Single displacement approx. 400 cm3
> Optimized combustion processes CAS, base and full load range> Optimized (green) fuels> Massive downsizing, reduced friction> Variable air, fuel, electrification> High-power batteries
…
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Technology focus and priorities
B l
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+ plug-in
ELECTRICAL PROPULSION
CO
MB
US
TIO
N E
NG
INE
Conventional ICE
+ stop-startrecuperation
+ boost, short e-drive
E-drive with ICE range extender
EV with fuel-cell range
extender
Integratedhybrid
Pure EV
> High-power batteries
> Single displacement approx. 250 cm3
> Optimized combustion processes/emissions, reduction high/full-throttle
> Downsizing, reduced friction> High-power e-motors> High-energy batteries
Source: VW, Roland Berger
There are different options for electrifying powertrains –Technical layout depending on application and vehicle segment
Micro/mild hybrid
Belt-driven starter-generator
Integrated starter-generator
Full hybrid (PHEV option)
Second electric axle
Serial hybrid(rangeextended)
Parallel hybrid
Power-split hybrid
Battery electric vehicle
EV
Serial hybrid(parallel option)
PHEV
PURE ELECTRIC DRIVING POSSIBLE
MARKET DEVELOPMENTB l
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Engine Gears Clutch HV E-machine 1) Belt-driven starter-generator 2) Integrated starter-generators
1)
2)
Mixed operation, incl. long distance Urban/rural UrbanMini & small cars, small vans, minivans, fun cars
Mid-size cars, MPVs, small SUVs, light delivery trucks, sports cars
Upper medium class/premium class, large SUVs, sports cars, transporters/vans
Main applications(vehicle segments)
Source: Roland Berger
Two scenarios have been developed: "downsized mobility" (low scenario) and "the future drives electric" (high scenario)
Drivers Downsized mobility The future drives electric
Mobility needs
1 > EVs have limited range> No disadvantage for PHEVs
> EVs have limited range> No disadvantage for PHEVs
> Limited infrastr. in city centers > Concurrent infrastr. in urban areas
EV driving range
Scenarios to estimate powertrain penetration shares
MARKET DEVELOPMENTB l
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> Limited infrastr. in city centers> Slow roll-out
> Concurrent infrastr. in urban areas> Accelerated roll-outInfrastructure
Cost limita-tions
2 > Stagnating fuel prices> Battery cost reduction
> Rising oil prices> Accelerated battery cost reduction
> Little government support for fuel-efficient technologies
> High tax incentives/subsidies for zero- or nearly zero-emission vehicles in beginning
Fuel and battery prices
Taxes/incentives
3 > Limited segment offering, A-/B-segments for EVs, C-/D-segments for PHEVs
> Wide segment offering; A-/B-/C-segments for EVs, C-segments or bigger for PHEVs
> A few front-runners> Most OEMs remain skeptical
> Numerous OEMs already in first phase> Many incumbent OEMs actively involved
SegmentsImage/comfort require-ments
Brands
Source: Roland Berger
EV market potential is calculated based on car buyers who have access to infrastructure and a compatible mobility profile
Western Europe EV new car sales in 2020 [k units]
MARKET DEVELOPMENTB l
16,850 Potential EV customers
19PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptxSource: Roland Berger
800
In areas with infrastructure
coverage
1,6001,800
Have a TCO advantage
At least two cars in the household
1,000
Drive EV segments available
3,100
Only one EV per household
10,600
Potential EV customers
Fulfill mobility range
New car sales in Western Europe
1,200
The share of electrified powertrains can then probably increase significantly in all major Automotive markets
Western Europe Japan US China
2%
1%0%
1%
2015 0%0%
3%
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
0%0%
4%
1%0%
2%
Share of powertrain technologies in major markets in 2015/2020 – High scenario
B l
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94%
2%1%
2020
0%7%
3%
89%
Source: Roland Berger
0%5%
4%
90%
2%1%
2%
93%
ICE (none + micro) Mild Full PHEV (serial) PHEV (parallel) EV
73%
6%
5%14%
1%1%
77%
9%
4%
4%7%
0%
74%
5% 4%
8%8% 1%
79%
4%
6%9%
2% 0%
Current battery costs around 700 $/kWh need to be reduced by nearly 50% in order to realize "high scenario" for (PH)EV penetration
Value chain EV battery of ternary mix (NMC)
CAPEX1)
[USD m]
650-770
20-30Depending on degree of automation
MINING/ RAW MATERIALS
RAW MATERIAL PROCESSING
CELL MANUFACTURING
BATTERY ASSEMBLY
1 2 3 4
BATTERY COSTSC l
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VALUE ADD[USD/kWh]~700~ 500~ 275~100
1) Necessary invest for 100k EV-equivalents (20 kWh)
350-400
650-770
PRODUCTION
COST DRIVERS
LEVERS
> Local
> Material purity (to/m3)
> Mining capacity (oligopoles)
> Sulphatization
> Global
> Specific(kWh/kg)
> Standardization> New materials (nano)> Process technology
> Regional
> Production efficiency (m2/sec)
> Manufacturing technology
> Local
> Volume (n/hrs)
> Assembly technology> Labor costs> Component costs
Other components: BMS, housing, plates
Source: IIT; expert interviews; Roland Berger analysis
automation
Even with 65% increased energy efficiency, costs of battery packs are in best case around $ 270 / kWh – Materials highest lever
115145
55
7009 17
Other
Batteryassembly
Necessary increase of energy density – Ternary mix (NMC), high energy
COST REDUCTION LEVERS FOR BATTERY PRODUCTION [USD/kWh]
BATTERY COSTSC l
22PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptxSource: Roland Berger analysis
9
115
66
44
225
145
256
Battery assembly efficiency
3663
158
Increase in specific
energy: +65%
21
Cost reductions in other
components
Cell manufacturing
efficiency
Improved materials
processing
Costs 2010 Cost of raw materials
Othercomponents
265
55Raw materials
95
Materialprocessing
Best cost
scenario
Cellmanufacturing
24
100
175
1) Mainly driven by decrease of cathode material costs (Co, Ni) 2) Battery management system, housing, etc.
Source: Roland Berger analysis
-1% p.a.1)
-1% p.a.(net)
-50% (net,doubled)
-80%(total)
-5% p.a.(net)
Raw materials -40%Active materials -40%Cell manufacturing -40%Other components -20%Battery assembly2) -25%
Even in the long term, the cost difference between EVs/ PHEVs and ICEs is unlikely to fall below EUR 4,000 and EUR 5,000
Gasoline
Powertrain costs
-9,000
EV
Powertrain costs
PHEV1)
Powertrain costs
Approximate cost of powertrain for mid-size vehicles [EUR]
BATTERY COSTSC l
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1) Serial hybrid layout 2) Incl. single stage gearbox 3) Cooling, adaption transmission and wiring harness 4) Incl. generator
2010 2020
2,200
2010
3,000
2020
16,500
2010
7,500
2020
14,000
7,000+800
-7,000
Electric motor2)
Power electronics
Other3)
Battery
ICE4)
Electric motor2)
Power electronicsOther3)
Battery
Source: Roland Berger
� The COMBUSTION ENGINE WILL REMAIN ON THE MARKET for the next two to three decades, if only because it provides good value at a relatively low initial cost.
� ENERGY SOURCES WILL CHANGE, but storage will take place not just by means of electricitybut also next-generation biofuels and potentially hydrogen.
E-mobility will come – but realism is necessary and new business models are needed to make it a success
D l SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
24PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx
� Similar to other new technologies, e-mobility is HIGHLY FIXED COSTS DRIVEN in all aspects –ECONOMIES OF SCALE are NECESSARY , CONCENTRATION is INEVITABLE.Examples:- High R&D costs for new cell chemistries- Infrastructure and/or software based value added services
� OEMS AND SUPPLIERS need to deal with the HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. They must DEVELOP NEW BUSINESS MODELS AND ALTERNATIVE REVENUE STREAMS to compensate for technology substitution.
� PARTNERSHIPS are CRUCIAL for success:Mobility services will pave the road for eMobility
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E. About Roland Berger
Our profile
Founded in 1967 in Germany by Roland Berger
36 25 2,100
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants is a truly global firm –We provide strategic advice to the world's top decision makers
ROLAND BERGERE l
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36 offices in 25 countries, with approx. 2,100 employees
180 RB Partners currently serving approximately
1,000 international clients
Source: Roland Berger
> Global team of more than 200 dedicated automotive consultants
Roland Berger Automotive: >200 consultants worldwide
The Roland Berger Automotive Competence Center: A strong and global team
Russia
2 Partners/Principals10 Consultants
Japan
Western Europe
12 Partners/Principals90 Consultants
ROLAND BERGER – AUTOMOTIVE COMPETENCE CENTERE l
27PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx
> Over 300 clients in the automotive industry
> More than 1,000 success-ful projects since 2000
> Proven leading-edge tools and methodologies
> Thought leadership in the worldwide automotive community, producing highly regarded studies and top quality research
Source: Roland Berger
Eastern Europe
2 Partners/Principals15 Consultants
South America
2 Partner/Principal10 Consultants
Japan
4 Partners/Principals20 Consultants
China
2 Partners/Principals20 Consultants
USA
4 Partners/Principals20 Consultants
India1)
1 Partner/Principal10 Consultants
1) Partnership with Tata Strategic Management Group
The Automotive Competence Center continuously conducts high-quality research on e-mobility topics
Powertrain 2020: The Future Drives Electric
(Sep. 2009)
• EV/PHEV global market modeling• Impact on the mobility value chain and potential new business models• Key challenges for the industry and recommendations on how to prepare for them
Winning the powertrain race – The front line • Marketing as a key role for new powertrain challenges• Requirements for brand positioning
Major Roland Berger studies on E-Mobility
ROLAND BERGER – AUTOMOTIVE COMPETENCE CENTERE l
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role of marketing and sales ( Apr. 2009) • Requirements for brand positioning• The role of design in customer decisions• Requirements towards the sales and service organization
Powertrain 2020: Electric Vehicles – Voice of
the Customer
(April 2010)
• Drivers for the electrification of powertrain – scarce resources and tougher regulations• Customers' affinity to electric vehicles• Potential additional profit sources for electric vehicles
Powertrain 2020 - China's ambition to become
market leader in E-Vehicles (Jan. 2010)
• Chinese efforts to become major technology hub for E-components• Government is pushing and moving towards electric driving• Implications on business model design and partnering strategies for suppliers as well
as OEMs
Powertrain 2020: Li-Ion batteries – the
next Bubble ahead?
(March 2010)
• Li-Ion batteries market modelling• Estimation of industry capacity usage– not to be reached till 2018• Need for action for Western governments in order to avoid loosing future technologies
Source: Roland Berger
We have completed more than 30 projects in future electrified Powertrains since 2007, covering the entire value chain
> Market and technology study Li-Ion batteries for raw material suppliers> Market study and partnering strategy for global Japanese manuf. of Li-Ion batteries> Site selection Europe for Japanese Li-Ion manufacturer> Study on use of different battery types for European battery manufacturer association> Market analysis 2020 of European hybrid vehicle market> Study on global market prospects for alternative range-extender concepts
BATTERY SUPPLIERSB
A RAW MATERIAL SUPPLIERS
CLIENTS SELECTED PROJECTS
ROLAND BERGER – AUTOMOTIVE COMPETENCE CENTERE l
29PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx
> Study on global market prospects for alternative range-extender concepts> Market entry strategy hybrids Europe for leading global Japanese supplier> Technology strategy, partnering and reorganization in EV-context for leading Tier1> Analysis of legislative framework, taxation and possible subsidies for
E-vehicles in 14 European markets> Market study in China regarding alternative fuels and Powertrain concepts up to 2020> Market analysis Europe and product positioning of new electric vehicle> Concept development and feasibility study for E-vehicle design, development and manufacturing> Development of hybrid and E-vehicle strategy for OEM incl. innovative EV concept > Make-or-Buy strategy for HEV/EV components for leading global OEM> Business model design/go-to-market strategy EV for global OEM> E-Mobility strategy for Italian, Czech and German utilities (infrastructure requirements,
business model, coordination of pilot programs ...)> Development of support program "E-Mobility" in context of overall economic stimulus program of
German government, coordination of model regions> E-mobility strategy for various other national and regional governments
TRADITIONAL COMPONENT SUPPLIERS
C
OEMSD
UTILITIESE
MUNICIPALITIES & GOVERNMENT
F
Source: Roland Berger
Contact us for further information and discussion
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart
Partner
CONTACTS
Thomas Schick
Partner
30PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptxSource: Roland Berger
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbHAutomotive Competence Center
Loeffelstraße 4670597 StuttgartGermany
Phone +49 711 3275-7421 Mobile +49 160 744-7421mailto: [email protected]
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbHAutomotive Competence Center
Neue Mainzer Strasse 69-75 60311 FrankfurtGermany
Phone +49 69 29924-6202Mobile +49 160 744-6202mailto: [email protected]
It's characterthat creates
31PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx
It's character
impact!that creates