The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 1

The U.S. National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) Project Daniel P. Eleuterio, Office of Naval Research

Jessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere ResearchFred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather Service

Dave McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command

WWOSC MontrealAugust 18, 2014

The National Earth System Prediction Capability National ESPC 2

U.S. National ESPC OverviewAn interagency collaboration since 2010, for coordination of research to operations of a National Earth System analysis and prediction capability. Seeks improved coordination of global prediction of weather, ocean, and sea ice conditions at weather to seasonal timescales. • Common prediction requirements and forecast model

standards that enable agencies to improve leverage and collaboration.

• Cooperative focus projects to assess predictability of global scale high impact environmental conditions in research with an eye towards operations.

• Towards an multi-model, ensemble based, air-sea-land coupled global prediction capability.

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Community and Agency Calls to Action

• An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the Twenty-First Century (Shapiro et al. 2010)

• Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction (Brunet et al. 2010)

• Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability (Weller, 2010)

• A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling (NRC Press, 2012)

• Arctic Security Considerations and the U.S. Navy’s Roadmap for the Arctic (Titleyand St. John, 2009)

• The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction are not Achieving their Potential (Mass, 2006)

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Exploit Sources of Extended Range Predictability through Global Coupled Modeling

R. Zhang, 2007

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Partnerships:NOPPHFIP

NMMEUSGCRP

USCLIVARNUOPCWGNE

U.S. National ESPC

Earth System Modeling

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Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS)

DeLuca et al. 2014 (in prep.)

ESPS is a collection of NUOPC-compliant Earth system component and model codes

• interoperable, documented, available for integration/use.

Implementation is part of a NOPP project awarded under National ESPC: “An Integration and Evaluation Framework for ESPC Coupled Models”.

The NUOPC Interoperability Layer is:

• a set of rules for coding an ESMF-compliant Earth system components and downloadable model architecture.

ESPS website with draft inclusion criteria and list of candidate models (Coupled, Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, and Wave):

http://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/esps/

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National ESPC ThrustsBuild the next generation operational U.S. Inter-Agency Environmental Prediction Systems:

• Advance computational and environmental numerical prediction science and technology through coupled model development

• Identify and quantify uncertainty and risk though probabilistic prediction: multi-model ensembles

• Enhance our understanding of the complex interactions of the earth environmental system through process studies

• Improve operational predictive capability with better skill scores and longer lead times through technology transition

• Provide insight and guidance for informed decisions in an increasingly complex and changing global human enterprise

Implement an ESPC Suite across partner Operational Prediction Centers

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NOAA Earth System Prediction R2O

• NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) in development.

• Recent UCAR review:• Production suite is too complex: go to unified modeling

approach?• Additional drivers: CFS-v3, NMME, etc.• Incremental improvement of existing systems, because

“Forklift replacements” are challenging.• Moving toward community modeling approaches: CRTM,

GSI, GFS, HWRF, WW3, HYCOM, ….• Moving toward coupled modeling: NEMS reaching maturity

with components ~ 2015.• Basic concepts are fairly solid, but details of system

redesign are still in progress.

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Multi-Model Strategies•Nowcast (0‐18 hrs)• HRRE, WRF, COAMPS‐OS, etc.

•Short Range (0‐84 hrs)• Hurricane Intensity Ensemble HFIP Stream 1.5 (HWRF, COAMPS‐TC, etc.) 

• Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)

•Medium Range (0‐16 days, extending to 32 by 2016)• NUOPC/NAEFS – Navy, NWS, Air Force, Canada

•Extended Range (1 to 9 months)• National Multi‐Model Ensemble – NWS, Canada, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, Academia (IRI, COLA, etc.)

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U.S. Navy Implementation of Earth System Models

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We provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations – from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the

coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

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U.S. Navy Implementation of Earth System Models

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We provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations – from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the

coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Home Field Advantage… at the Away Games

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Global Benefits of Earth System Prediction

Seasonally Ice Free Arctic

Maritime Security/Global Commerce

Water Scarcity

RegionalAssistanceGlobal Security

Tropical Cyclogensis,

Intensification and ET

Maritime Ops Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief

Extreme Drought Conditions

Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief

Ocean Air Trop/ StratLand Sea IceNavy-ESPC Model Component: Air Strat/ Meso

Sudden Stratospheric

WarmingSecurityCommerceMaritime Domain Awareness

Frequent Weather

ExtremesCivil Support

Space Weather EventsGlobal Maritime Operations and Satellite Communication

Atmospheric RiversHumanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief

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Design infrastructure for operational implementation for coupled system• Define implementation across operational systems, architecture requirements,

cycling setup including DA

Global Coupled Forecast Model Development Navy ESPC Highlights - Infrastructure

• Initial Design published as Naval Research Laboratory Technical Report in 2013 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs.php search under author Metzger

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Three-Month Running Mean 500 mb Height Anomaly Correlations for the NHEM

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NAVGEM/ HYCOM Progress - Example

Coupled NAVGEM / HYCOM 30-day integrations from 1 Nov 2011

The sensitivity of MJO predictive skill in the coupled system to modifications of the NAVGEM physics as compared to air-sea interaction is a topic of ongoing research.

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NAVGEM Progress - ExampleInitial coupled hindcasts for the DYNAMO field campaign period showed air-sea coupling improved MJO initiation and phase speed but also over-developed tropical cyclone and convective intensification in the Indian Ocean-West Pacific basins.

DYNAMO (Dynamics of the Madden Julian

Oscillation)

Preliminary tests with modified physics in NAVGEM have shown encouraging improvements in predictions of area-wide mean cyclonic vorticitydevelopment.

Enhanced diagnostics will be added to better measure prediction of cyclogenesis.

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Navy ESPC Progress - Example

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standard stress

formulation

stress formulationincluding wind-current

sheardrifter observations

Kuroshio

Agulhas

Gulf Stream

Standard bulk formula in HYCOM using 10m winds was compared to an eddy-wind interaction formula using the 10 m winds and ocean surface velocity using the same atmospheric forcing for 2005-2009. The new approach improves the mean eddy pathways overall but doesn't produce the spread of pathways in the observations.

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Navy ESPC Progress - Example

• NRL recently started participating in the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)/ Sea Ice Prediction Network comparisons of September Arctic sea ice minimum extent prediction.

• The Navy’s Arctic Cap Nowcast/ Forecast System (ACNFS) –HYCOM/CICE with an Ensemble of prescribed forcing from NOGAPS climatology (2005‐2012) members all initialized from  01 May 2013 observed ocean conditions. 

• Future efforts will use the  fully coupled air/ocean/sea ice configuration.

First US Navy long term seasonal forecasts of sea iceNRL Seasonal Prediction

Observed Minimum

Sept 2013 minimum extent Observed– 4.81 Mkm2

ACNFS estimate – 4.9 Mkm2

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Navy ESPC Progress - ExampleArctic and Antarctic Atmosphere & Sea-Ice Coupling

Allowing inter-model feedbacks as part of a two-way coupled system produces a realistic forecast, which permits use for further investigation into specific model biases and important coupling mechanisms.

NAVGEM CICENAVGEM CICE

Sea Ice/Ground Temperature (K)

2-way

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System projected for operations in 2018

ForecastTime

Scale,Frequency

AtmosphereNAVGEM

OceanHYCOM

IceCICE

WavesWW3

Land-Surface

NAVGEM-LSM

AerosolNAAPS

Deterministicshort term

0-10 days, daily

19 km 80 levels

(T681L80)1

1/25°(4.5 km)2

41 layers

1/25°(4.5 km)

1/8°(14 km)

3/16°(21 km)

3/16°(21 km)

Deterministiclong term

0-30 days, weekly

19 km 80 levels

(T681L80)1

1/12°(9 km)

41 layers

1/12°(9 km)

1/4°(28 km)

3/16°(21 km)

3/16°(21 km)

Probabilisticlong term

0-90 days,weekly

37 km50 levels

(T359L50)

1/12°(9 km)

41 layers

1/12°(9 km)

1/4°(28 km)

1/3°(37 km)

1/3°(37 km)

Navy ESPC: Operational Implementation

1 Horizontal resolution at the equator

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NRC Study on Subseasonal to Seasonal ForecastingThis study will identify: • Potential sources of predictability and assess their relative value for

advancing predictive skill; • Process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into

forecast models;• Opportunities for application and advancement of atmosphere-ocean-

land-sea ice coupled models at timescales of a few days to months; • Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S

forecasts;• Techniques for uncertainty quantification and verification of

probabilistic products; and• Infrastructure requirements for computational, data storage and

communication/ visualization techniques needed to make high resolution data assimilating global coupled ensembles an operational reality.

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The call for Extended Range Products in the S2S Gap

• When initialized anywhere in phase space, the solution collapses toward this attractor. However, behavior of the trajectory is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. -- Ed Lorenz (1963)

• Every day meteorologists predict next week’s weather…..Research is underway to develop models that will help them make predictions on an even longer timescale, seasonal forecasts of monsoon rains for example. --Tim Palmer, A weather eye on unpredictability (1991)

• Nearly 25 years later are we as far along as we should be?