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Elliott D. Pollack & Company
To:
ACMA
By:Jim Rounds, Senior Vice President
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
February 6th, 2013
The Land of Common NonSense
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Context
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
The economy we wanted…
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
What we got…
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
United States Real Gross Domestic Product* Annual Growth 1970 - 2014**
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis & Blue Chip Economic Indicators
0.2%
3.4%
5.3%
5.8%
-0.6%-0.2%
5.4%
4.6%
5.6%
3.1%
-0.3%
2.5%
-1.9%
4.5%
7.2%
4.1%3.5%
3.2%
4.1%
3.6%
1.9%
-0.2%
3.4%2.9%
4.1%
2.5%
3.7%
4.5%4.4%4.8%
4.1%
1.1%1.8%
2.5%
3.5%3.1%
2.7%
1.9%
-0.3%
-3.5%
3.0%2.5%
2.3%2.0%
2.6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
* Based on chained 2005 dollars.
** 2012 - 2014 are forecasts from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, January 2013Recession Periods
4th Qt = -.1%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Worried about GDP? No.
- Spending boost followed by budget cuts,
- Inventories.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
US New Job Data Change from Prior Month (S/A)
June 2010 – January 2013Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics
-130
-86
-37-43
228
144
95
69
196205
115
209
78
132
225
166174
230
271
205
112125
87
153165
138
160
247
196
157
(250)
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
(000’s)
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
U.S. Unemployment Rate1976 – 2013*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
*Data through January 2013
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
U.S. Underemployment Rate1994 – 2012*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
*Data through August 2012
Recession Periods
Beaten down by life.
Unemployment Rate
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Financial Obligation Ratio**1980 – 2012*
Source: Federal Reserve
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
1980 Q
1
1981 Q
2
1982 Q
3
1983 Q
4
1985 Q
1
1986 Q
2
1987 Q
3
1988 Q
4
1990 Q
1
1991 Q
2
1992 Q
3
1993 Q
4
1995 Q
1
1996 Q
2
1997 Q
3
1998 Q
4
2000 Q
1
2001 Q
2
2002 Q
3
2003 Q
4
2005 Q
1
2006 Q
2
2007 Q
3
2008 Q
4
2010 Q
1
2011 Q
2
2012 Q
3
*Data through third quarter 2012**Ratio of mortgage and consumer debt (including auto, rent and tax payments) to disposable income.
Recession Periods
Paying less for past
purchases!
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Consumer Confidence1978 – 2012*
Source: The Dismal Scientist
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
*Data through December 2012
Recession Periods
Normal NormalNormal New Normal?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Real Retail Sales U.S. Percent Change Year Ago
1973 – 2012* Source: Federal Reserve
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
*Data through November 2012**Three-month moving average
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Real Disposable Personal IncomePercent Change Year Ago
1971 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
* Data through third quarter 2012
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Hours WorkedPercent Change from Year Ago
1976 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Recession Periods
*Data through third quarter 2012
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Capacity Utilization Rate1970 – 2012*
Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jan-
70
Jan-
71
Jan-
72
Jan-
73
Jan-
74
Jan-
75
Jan-
76
Jan-
77
Jan-
78
Jan-
79
Jan-
80
Jan-
81
Jan-
82
Jan-
83
Jan-
84
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
*Data through November 2012
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
U.S. Leading Indicators1971 – 2012*
Source: The Conference Board
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Recession Periods
*Data through November 2012
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
FISCAL CLIFF
2013
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Recession? No.
Slow growth?Yes.
Kicking the can…Yes.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
9
4
15
2
10
3
7
Job Growth 2006
11
15
6
22
8
Source: US BLSSource: US BLS
13
Jobs growing
Jobs declining
Top 10
Hawaii
Alaska
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
5
49
24
3645
4
30
8
25
46
50
44
1
3
Alaska 2
2034
Job Growth 2009Source: US BLSSource: US BLS
Jobs growing
Jobs declining
Top 10
Hawaii
6
7
910
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
65
34
10 8
448
32
3311
1
3
Alaska 43
22
Jobs growing
Jobs decliningTop 10
Hawaii
14
9
2
Job Growth 2012Source: US BLS
507
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
SRP Residential Utility Hookup Percentage Growth Greater Phoenix 2003 – 2012*
Source: SRP
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
*Data through July 2012.
POP
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
APS: Slowest Growth in over 50 years1954 – 2012*
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Re
sid
en
tia
l Cu
sto
me
rs O
ve
r P
rio
r Y
ea
r
*Data through third quarter 2012Source: APS
POP
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago*
1999 – 2012**Source: Arizona Department of Revenue
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
*Data through November 2012**3-month moving average
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona Restaurant and Bar Sales Percent Change Year Ago*
1999 – 2012**Source: Arizona Department of Revenue
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
*Data through November 2012**3-month moving average
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
State Sales Tax ( 5% - Undistributed Portion) $798.5 $127.4 $143.3 $161.3 $181.7 $204.9 $231.2
State Sales Tax ( 0.6% - Education) $129.8 $20.7 $23.3 $26.2 $29.5 $33.3 $37.6
County (Direct and State Shared Revenue) $342.5 $60.0 $67.5 $75.9 $85.6 $96.5 $108.9
Local (Direct and State Shared Revenue) $588.6 $109.3 $122.9 $138.3 $155.9 $175.7 $198.3
Total $1,859.4 $317.4 $356.9 $401.8 $452.7 $510.5 $576.1
Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Company; IMPLAN; AZ Dept. of Revenue; AZ Tax Research Association; Univ. of Tennessee
FORECAST
2000 - 2009
Uncollected Taxes on E-Commerce (Millions)Arizona
2000 – 2012**Source: Elliott D. Pollack and Company, AZDOR, ATRA, IMPLAN
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Projected Net Job Growth:
2013 = 73,600 2014 = 88,500 = 162,100
FISCAL CLIFF IN ARIZONA?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
If the mandated spending cuts take place,
total loss to Arizona is projected at: 45,000 to 50,000 jobs.
We will still grow, but very slowly.Remember, the “worst case” is not the
most likely scenario.
FISCAL CLIFF IN ARIZONA?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Addl. Detail:Greater Phoenix
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona Employment* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sectors in Decline
Net
Change
Information -1,000
Other Services -400
Natural Resources & Mining -100
*Dec. 2012/ Dec. 2011
Sectors Improving
Net
Change
Professional & Bus Services 13,300
Trade, Transp, Utilities 12,200
Education & Health Services 10,200
Leisure & Hospitality 8,800
Construction 7,300
Government 6,200
Financial Activities 3,800
Manufacturing 3,600
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Employment* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sectors in Decline
Net
Change
Information -600
Natural Resources & Mining -100
*Dec. 2012/ Dec. 2011
Sectors Improving
Net
Change
Professional & Bus Services 9,700
Education & Health Services 9,700
Trade, Transp, Utilities 9,600
Leisure & Hospitality 6,200
Government 5,300
Construction 5,200
Financial Activities 3,500
Manufacturing 2,400
Other Services 900
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona- Jobs in the Black
Over last 12 months: 63,900 12 months before that: 22,900
12 months before that: 7,00012 months before that:
(160,500)12 months before that:
(138,100) * As of December 2012
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona JobsSource: BLS
Jobs lost Peak to Trough:300,800
(Dec-07) (Jul-10)
Jobs gained Trough to Current:102,900
(Jul-10) (Dec-12)
***We are 33% of the way back****Based on seasonally adjusted monthly data
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Employment Levels: Arizona back to Peak in 2015?
Source: ADOA
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2,400.0
2,600.0
2,800.0
3,000.0
Recession Periods
Peak
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona Per Capita Personal Income1978–2011
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Arizona Per Capita Personal Income% of US: 1978–2011
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
U.S. Single-Family Starts1978–20121/
Source: Census Bureau
1.4
1.2
0.9
0.7 0.7
1.1 1.1 1.1
1.2 1.11.1
1.00.9
0.8
1.01.1
1.2
1.1
1.21.1
1.3 1.31.21.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.0
0.6
0.4 0.50.4
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
(Millions)
1/ Through November 2012
Recession Periods
Over-supply
Under-supply
LTA: 1.2
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Single Family Permits
Greater Phoenix 1975–2016*Source: RL Brown & Elliott D. Pollack & company
8.711.1
22.3
28.9
18.8
11.510.6
11.6
19.4 18.1
22.623.2
17.915.1
12.010.6
13.7
18.4
22.7
27.428.5
29.631.7
36.035.3
34.736.2
38.9
47.7
60.9
63.6
42.4
31.2
12.6
8.06.8
6.8
12.014.0
18.0
25.0
35.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
# Permits(000)
*2012 – 2016 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Company
But population growth also slid…
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Percentage of Homes Purchased with
$$$ Cash $$$2003 – 2012*
Source: Cromford Report
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
*Data through November 2012
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Permits Source: R.L. Brown
*Data through YTD December 2012 vs. YTD December 2011
Year Permits % chg
2004 60,872 27.6%
2005 63,570 4.4%
2006 42,423 -33.3%
2007 31,172 -26.5%
2008 12,582 -59.6%
2009 8,027 -36.2%
2010 6,822 -15.0%
2011 6,794 -0.4%
2012* 11,615 71.0%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Home Prices IndicesGreater Phoenix
1989 – 2012* Source: Macro Markets, LLC; AMLS
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
MLS Index Case-Shiller Index Trendline (4.0%)
Recession Periods
*Data through October 2012.
?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Total Single Family Units Occupied by Renters2000-2011
Greater PhoenixSource: American Community Survey
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
11.73% 12.41%11.60% 11.30%
11.75%11.75%
14.10%15.25%
16.37%18.08%
20.32%
21.83%
?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Tucson
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Same basic story, just different scale and
timing…
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Tucson MSA Employment* Annual Percent Change 1975–2012**
Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration
3.3%
6.2%
9.2%
4.6%
3.1%
-0.1%
3.8%
8.6%8.1%
3.3%2.3%
1.8%
0.3%0.6%
2.7%
2.4%
3.7%
6.3%
3.8%
1.5%2.7%
2.8%3.8%
4.0%
-0.7%
-1.3%
0.7%
3.4%2.7%
3.5%
1.5%
-1.0%
-5.1%
-2.2%
0.1%
0.6%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
*Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in 1990.
**Data through November 2012
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Tucson Employment* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sectors in Decline
Net
Change
Education & Health Services -1,000
Other Services -400
Information -300
*Dec. 2012/ Dec. 2011
Sectors Improving
Net
Change
Trade, Transp, Utilities 2,100
Business & Prof. Services 1,500
Leisure & Hospitality 1,300
Construction 900
Government 900
Financial Activities 500
Manufacturing 300
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Pima County Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago
2000 – 2012* Source: Arizona Department of Revenue
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
*Data through November 2012
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Tucson Single Family Permits2000–2012*
Source: Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter
Recession Periods
*Data through December 2012
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Single Family Resale Median PriceGreater Tucson
2000 – 2012* Source: Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
*Data through December 2012
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Balance of State
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Balance of State Employment* Annual Percent Change 1975–2012**
Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration
3.9%
6.7%6.6%
1.6%1.0%
-5.3%
1.5%
4.9%
3.9%5.5%
5.2%
-10.9%
5.2%3.8%
2.4%3.8%3.3%
8.1%
3.1%2.0%
4.9%
2.2%3.1%
4.2%
1.7%
1.0%
1.6%
2.8%
4.1%
4.6%
0.8%
-1.4%
-6.3%
-1.8%
-0.3%
1.9%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
*Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in 1990.
**Data through December 2012
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Balance of State Employment* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sectors in Decline
Net
Change
Other Services -900
Financial Activities -200
Information -100
*Dec. 2012/ Dec. 2011
Sectors Improving
Net
Change
Professional & Bus Services 2,100
Education & Health Services 1,500
Leisure & Hospitality 1,300
Construction 1,200
Manufacturing 900
Trade, Transp, Utilities 500
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Balance of State Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago**
2000 – 2012* Source: Arizona Department of Revenue
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
*Data through December 2012** 3-month moving average
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
4.55.5
4.9
6.35.2
4.2
2.7
4.54.9
4.8
4.7 4.94.95.25.2
4.5
5.25.8
6.96.5
7.3
5.7
6.36.3
6.4
4.3
8.78.5
9.7
12.6
10.5
5.6
2.2
2.2
1.9 1.9
2.33.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Balance of State Single Family Permits1976–2013*
Source: University of Arizona
Recession Periods
*2012 & 2013 are forecasts from the University of Arizona
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Commercial
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Multi-Family
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Multi-Family Year-End Vacancy RatesMaricopa County 1975–2014*
Source: ASU Realty Studies / Hendricks & Partners**
6.2%
4.1%3.3%
2.8%
3.9%
6.1%
4.4%
6.1%
6.9%7.7%
10.1%10.6%
13.0%14.1%
13.4%
10.0%9.5%
8.0%
4.0%3.8%4.5%4.5%
4.8%
5.1%5.9%
6.8%
8.2%
9.4%9.6%
7.9%
6.8%
7.8%
10.2%
12.5%
13.4%
10.8%
8.7%7.8%
7.0%6.4%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
*2012 -2014 are forecasts from the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip
**Data prior to 2005 is from ASU
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Absorption Completions
2007 (3,121) 3,800
2008 (4,466) 5,900
2009 9,100 6,231
2010 11,619 200
2011 7,729 248
2012q3 2,931 274
Multi-Family Housing Market Source: PMHS and Hendricks & Partners
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
OFFICE
More lights on?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Office Space Year-End Vacancy RatesMaricopa County 1986–2014*
Source: CBRE
26.7%
22.8%
24.0%
26.7%26.4%
25.4%
22.7%
18.8%
14.8%
11.7%
9.5% 9.2%9.5%
10.0%9.9%
16.0%
18.8%18.3%
16.4%
12.6%
11.1%
13.9%
19.1%
24.5%
26.2%25.5%
23.9%
22.1%
20.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
*2012 -2014 are forecasts from the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Office MarketSource: CBRE
Year Absorption (sf) Chg in Inventory (sf)
2006 3,245,888 **2,320,302
2007 1,500,704 4,905,374
2008 (603,112) 3,402,646
2009 (677,329) 1,798,415
2010 233,670 2,011,404
2011 1,857,433 3,144,910
2012q3 1,111,008 1,033,684*Only includes multi-tenant space greater than 10,000 SF
** A number of buildings in downtown and mid-town are being converted to office condos.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
As of third quarter 2012, there are 300,975 square feet
of office space under construction.
Source: CBRE
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
INDUSTRIAL
Slowly filling up?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Industrial Space Vacancy RatesMaricopa County 1980 – 2014*
Source: CBRE
8.4%
9.4%
11.1%
9.7%
12.8%
13.2%
16.4%15.2%
14.6%
12.8%14.0%
14.8%
13.6%
10.8%
7.4%
6.6%5.7%
7.0%7.1%8.1%
7.4%
9.8%10.3%
9.7%
8.5%
5.6%
6.7%
8.4%
12.5%
16.1%
14.7%
12.4%11.9%
11.0%10.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
* 2012 - 2014 are forecasts from the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Industrial Market Source: CBRE
Year Absorption (sf) Chg in Inventory (sf)
2006 6,032,175 7,829,959
2007 8,359,835 13,914,181
2008 629,838 13,467,215
2009 (4,649,352) 4,753,218
2010 4,455,097 2,451,202
2011 7,753,111 2,842,185
2012q3 6,093,132 2,132,574
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
As of third quarter 2012, there are 5.4 million square feet
of industrial space under construction.
Source: CBRE
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
RETAIL
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Retail Space Vacancy RatesMaricopa County 1985–2014*
Source: CBRE**
6.6%
8.9%
10.0%
11.8%13.1%
14.2%13.5%
12.7%
11.1%
9.8% 8.7%
7.9%7.5%
6.3%5.5%
5.3%6.6%7.3%
7.4%
6.1%5.3%
5.1%
6.2%7.5%
11.4%12.2%
12.2%
11.9%11.3%
10.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
* 2012-2014 are forecasts from GPBC** Data prior to 1992 is from Grubb & Ellis
Recession Periods
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Greater Phoenix Retail Market Source: CBRE
Year Absorption (sf) Chg in Inventory (sf)
2006 5,244,597 4,582,618
2007 9,424,362 11,104,865
2008 3,395,986 6,229,205
2009 (1,117,100) 4,405,985
2010 (75,352) 902,380
2011 (152,647) 24,543
2012q3 1,179,828 (58,535)NOTE: 325,000 sf were deleted from inventory during 2011 and 175,000 through q2 2012 due to market data updates and demolitions.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
As of third quarter 2012, there are 0.9 million square feet
of retail space under construction.
Source: CBRE
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Why be Optimistic?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Housing?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Many renting will buy. Many doubled-up will buy. Some population growth is back. Employment growth is occurring. Retirees less bound to crappy states. Investors will not suddenly dump and run. Still producing less than “normal.” Fundamentals remain in place. “Normal” returns in 2015-ish. Growth rates will be strong now though.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Cyclical vs. Permanent?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
How Arizona Ranks Among the States in Percentage Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis PERSONAL DECADE POPULATION EMPLOYMENT INCOME
1950 - 1960 4TH 3RD 2ND
1960 - 1970 3RD 3RD 4TH 1970 - 1980 2ND 3RD 4TH
1980 - 1990 3RD 3RD 5TH
1990 - 2000 2ND 2ND 3RD
2000 – 2010 2ND 12th 8TH
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Is the Cycle Our Enemy or Friend?
(Non-farm Emp. Percent Change 1980 – August 2012)
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
U.S. Arizona Recession Periods
Do you want to always be the same?
Or, most of the time EXCEED the US?
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
0%
2%
4%
6%
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
2.1%
3.7%
4.2%
4.7%
3.9%
3.3%
3.0%
3.1%
4.3%
5.1%
4.2%4.4%
2.9%
2.5%
1.3%
2.4%
2.8%
3.5%
4.3%
4.6%
4.2%4.2%
3.8%
4.3%4.3%
2.6%
2.7%3.1%
3.6%3.8%
3.7%
3.0%
1.9%
0.5%
0.3%
0.6%
1.1%
1.8%
Greater Phoenix Population Annual Percent Change 1976–2013*
Source: Arizona State University & Department of Commerce, Research Administration
.
* 2012 & 2013 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
Recession Periods
The
Exc
eptio
n…
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Growth Factors Still Intact?
1. Climate2. Lifestyle3. Geographic Location4. Pro-Growth Attitude5. Competitive Tax Structure6. Focused Incentives/Investment (i.e. transportation)7. Leadership with Common Sense8. Low Cost of Living9. Congressional Delegation Working for State10. Business & Government in Same Direction11. ETC, ETC, ETC.
Elliott D. Pollack & Company Source: CBRE
Competitiveness Map – 2012(2013?)Source : CBRE
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
5
910
Benefits of the “SUNBELT”
Alaska
Hawaii
Industrial Northwest
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Where do they come from?
1. California – Complete disaster.
2. Northeast – Too damn cold.
3. Rust Belt – No jobs.
4. Florida – Need help finding their luggage though.
5. Others…
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
Top 10 StatesPercent of Homes with Mortgages with Negative Equity
Source: Core Logic
22.6%
23.2%
24.1%
25.8%
29.0%
32.8%
35.8%
39.7%
42.7%
58.6%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%
Rhode IslandMaryland
OhioIllinois
CaliforniaMichigan
GeorgiaArizonaFlorida
Nevada
U.S.= 22.3%
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
AZ will still be a top 5 economy. The economy has multiple gears. 2015/2016 is FULL recovery for AZ.
The long term potential remains intact!
Closing Points:
Elliott D. Pollack & Company
ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & Company
7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100 Scottsdale, Arizona 85251
480-423-9200 P / 480-423-5942 F / www.arizonaeconomy.com / [email protected]
• Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis/Modeling
• Real Estate Market and Feasibility Studies
• Litigation Support
• Revenue Forecasting
• Keynote Speaking
• Public Finance and Policy Development
• Land Use Economics
• Economic Development