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eMarketer Webinar: Holiday Shopping 2014—Online Trends and Forecast

Date post:01-Nov-2014
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Holiday sales are known to make or break retailers, and 2014 is shaping up to be even stronger than last year. Topics in this webinar include: How much will holiday ecommerce and overall sales grow? Is mobile eclipsing desktop in ecommerce? Are beacons and visual search ready for primetime? Will supply chain troubles plague retailers again this year?
Transcript:
  • 1. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Made possible by Holiday Shopping 2014Online Trends and Forecast Yory Wurmser Retail Analyst September 18, 2014
  • 2. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Agenda US ecommerce forecast for 2014 holiday season Mobiles expanding role in US ecommerce Emerging technology trends this season Fulfillment: Are last years shipping issues resolved? Key takeaways Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 3. 2014 eMarketer Inc. eMarketers US Holiday Ecommerce Forecast for 2014
  • 4. 2014 eMarketer Inc. US retail ecommerce will grow 16.6%this holiday season, up from last years 15.3% rise Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 5. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce accounts for a growing share of US retail sales during the holiday season
  • 6. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Whats driving this years strong ecommerce growth? 1.Greater comfort with mobile buying 2.Improved retail sales overall Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 7. 2014 eMarketer Inc. 1.More consumers are getting comfortable with buying on their mobile devices
  • 8. 2014 eMarketer Inc. leading to more mobile sales US retail mcommerce sales will grow 37.3% in 2014 Mcommercesshare of US retail ecommerce will reach 19.0% in 2014
  • 9. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Mobile shopping plays an even bigger role during the holiday season In 2013, Black Friday was the seasons biggest mobile sales day People bought with their phones and tablets while waiting in line Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 10. 2014 eMarketer Inc. 2.A strong year for ecommerce will mirror an improved season for US retail sales overall Source: eMarketer, Sep 2014
  • 11. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Despite solid sales growth, three factors will keep retail from excelling this holiday season Image source: Shutterstock
  • 12. 2014 eMarketer Inc. 1.Slow real-income growth Real income in the US is up 2.3% since Jan. 2014 But its down 2.0% overall since Dec. 2012 Per capita real income is down 8% since 2007 Source: BEA, Aug. 2014 Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 13. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Slow real-income growth leaves consumers cautious The big issue is the economy. Youre not going to see big sales growth until you see real-income growth. Craig Johnson, president of Consumer Growth Partners
  • 14. 2014 eMarketer Inc. 2.Retailers overestimated consumer demand in 2013 Image source: Shutterstock
  • 15. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Retailers are making conservative inventory choices in 2014 [Last year], the conversion rates were starting to fall below plans, the pricing pressure started to get significant, and the promotional levels started to elevate. [This year], were seeing very, very lean levels of inventory going into the back half [of the year]. Retailers would rather compromise sales for better profitability. Stephanie Wissink, co-director of research and senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray
  • 16. 2014 eMarketer Inc. 3.2014 has a short holiday season
  • 17. 2014 eMarketer Inc. A short season will only marginally affect total sales but shift retailer and shopper behavior We are going to start seeing much more aggressive ads a lot sooner in the year. People tend to procrastinate and there will just be fewer days to buy items. Clay Olivier, CEO of Volusion
  • 18. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Recap: Despite challenges, US retail ecommerce will have a stellar holiday season Sales will grow 16.6%, boosted by: 1.More mobile commerce 2.5.0% year-over-year growth in overall US retail sales Three factors will hold spending back: 1.Slow real-income growth 2.Cautious retailers 3.Short season
  • 19. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Mobiles Ever-Expanding Role in Holiday Sales
  • 20. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Mobile sales are still relatively small 1.2% of US retail sales occur on mobile devices Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 21. 2014 eMarketer Inc. but mobiles impact on shopping is much larger In 2014: 145.9 million USmobile shoppers 74%of US digital shoppers shop with their phones 23 million more US mobile shoppers Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 22. 2014 eMarketer Inc. The majority of US smartphone owners in all age cohorts shop in-store with their phones
  • 23. 2014 eMarketer Inc. The influence of mobile shopping on total retail sales is huge In the 2014 holiday season, mobile shopping (i.e., research) before or during in-store trips will influence between a quarter and a half of all US retail sales, eMarketer estimates
  • 24. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Recap: Mcommerce sales are still only a small part of total US retail sales The majority of US shoppers are mobile shoppers Mobile will influence between a quarter and half of all US in-store retail sales this holiday season Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 25. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Emerging Technologies
  • 26. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Ubiquitous mobile shopping is spurring retailers to test two emerging technologies this season 1.Beacons 2.Visual search
  • 27. 2014 eMarketer Inc. 1.Beacons Image source: Estimote.com
  • 28. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Beacons will be more common this year More than half of the top 100 retailers are actively working with beacon technology now. Theyre in different stages, but all of them are evaluating, testing, piloting, trying it out. Were going to see at least several retailers announce very large- scale, public rollouts to support holiday campaigns. Rob Murphy, VP of marketing at Swirl
  • 29. 2014 eMarketer Inc. HBC is one of the first major retailers to deploy beacons system-wide HBC will cover 130 of its Hudsons Bay Co. and Lord & Taylor stores with beacons Each store will have multiple beacons Offers will come via HBC apps and third-party coupon app SnipSnap Image source: HBC.com
  • 30. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Third-party apps overcome the limits of branded retailer apps Beacon provider Swirl announced a partnership with Epicurious Epicurious app holders will receive messages when entering stores of partnering retailers Image source: iTunes
  • 31. 2014 eMarketer Inc. eMarketers view on beacons this holiday season: Retailers will expand experiments with beacons Direct effect on sales this season will be limited Beacons biggest impact will come via third-party apps Twitter #eMwebinar
  • 32. 2014 eMarketer Inc. 2)Visual search Image courtesy of Slyce
  • 33. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Amazon.coms Firefly jumpstarted visual search Image source: Yory Wurmser
  • 34. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Retailers see opportunity in visual search Were hearing a lot of brands say that they want to be able to capitalize on impulse purchasing at the moment of inspiration when they see something. Mark Elfenbein, CEO of Slyce
  • 35. 2014 eMarketer Inc. Targets In a Snap, an early branded visual search tool: Works with Target advertising Does not need QR or bar codes More examples should follow this season Image source: In a Snap
  • 36. 2014 eMarketer Inc. eMarketers view on visual search: Firefly has ushered in an era of visual
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