2016 eMarketer Inc.
Key Digital Trends for 2017A Glance Back at 2016, A Look Ahead to 2017
December 2016
Ezra PalmerContent Chief
Cathy BoylePrincipal Analyst
Lauren FisherSenior Analyst
2016 eMarketer Inc.
How Have Our Predictions Held Up?
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#1: US digital ad spending wont surpass TV ad spending
(Not in 2016, anyway)
2016 eMarketer Inc.
2016 eMarketer Inc.
2014 2015 2016 2017
$72.7 B
$67.1 B
US Ad Spending, September 2015
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2015
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
$71.3 B
US Ad Spending, September 2016
#eMwebinar
Chart1
68.5449.69
68.8859.82
71.2972.09
72.7282.86
$72.1 B
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
TV
Digital
Sheet1
TVDigital
201468.5449.69
201568.8859.82
201671.2972.09
201772.7282.86
2016 eMarketer Inc.
Whats behind the accelerated crossover and what does it mean for the future of advertising? Ezra Lauren
#eMwebinar
2016 eMarketer Inc.
Google and Facebook success, tech advances and mobile shift are key contributors
2016: $29.6B ^ 19.8% 40.9%
2017: $33.9B ^ 14.8% 41.3%
2016: $11.9B ^ 48.6% 16.6%
2017: $15.2B ^ 27.3% 18.3%
US Net Digital Ad Revenues
Precise targeting
Better measurement
Shift to mobile
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
A few additional reasons: growth in programmatic and digital video spending
$25.2B$31.9B
$37.9B
US Programmatic DigitalDisplay Ad Spending US Digital Video Ad Spending
$10.3B $12.6B$14.4B
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
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Chart1
25.230.442
31.870.263
37.880.189
Billions
% change
Sheet1
Billions% change
2016$25.2344.20%
2017$31.8726.30%
2018$37.8818.90%
Chart1
10.30.341
12.60.218
14.40.147
Billions
% change
Sheet1
Billions% change
2016$10.3034.10%
2017$12.6021.80%
2018$14.4014.70%
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#2: The voice of the consumer will be heard
Were talking about consumers actual voices
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Search and native social pages will drive voice activity growth
Volume from search will rise more than 15%, and the volume from social will nearly double
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Are voice-based interfaces the next mobile frontier for marketers and advertisers?
CathyEzra
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
31% YOY Growth 2015 to 2016
The volume of inbound calls to businesses from mobile devices is growing at double-digit rates
Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
86 billion
Marketers need to be prepared for a heavier volume of inbound calls, now and going forward
But ...BIA/Kelsey did adjust its 2016 projection downward
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
$1 Trillion
Still, inbound calls from mobile phones will influence roughly one-third of in-store sales
Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016
In-store retail spending influenced by inbound calls from mobile users in the US
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Voice-initiated search queriesmake up 20% of all queries made through Googles mobile app
1 in 5 The number of
searches initiated by voice
Source: Google, Sep 2016
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
2%The number of
households with voice-activated
assistant devices in 2016
Source: Strategy Analytics, Aug 2016
1.8 million voice-activated assistant devices are projected to be sold in the US this year
Most will be Amazon Echo
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
#3: Mobile payments will take off
In 2016, the divide between digital and physical commerce will be
bridged further
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
US Mobile Payment Users
2014 2015 2016 2017
23.2 M
50.2 M
37.5 M
16.4 M
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Average Annual Spend per US Mobile Payment User
2014 2015 2016 2017
$375
$1,231
$721
$224
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Annual Mobile Payments Transaction Value
2014 2015 2016 2017
$8.7 B
$61.8 B
$27.1 B
$3.7 B
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Is there still a case for rapid US mobile payments growth or are expectations tempered? Ezra Lauren
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Two data points, of many, that point to growth:
Other sources see increased penetration High interest among younger consumers
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
#4: Facebook will become nearly entirely mobile
More than three-quarters of Q3 2015 ad revenue was mobile
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
US Facebook users who access the social network exclusively via desktop or laptop will number less than 14 million in 2016
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Will Facebooks mobile growthin both users and ad revenuehit a ceiling this year?
CathyEzra
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Theres still room for growth in the number of mobile Facebook users
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2016
86%of Facebook users will
access the platform from a mobile phone
2016
90%of Facebook users will
access the platform from a mobile phone
2018
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
The story is similar on the advertising fronttheres still room for growth on the mobile side
85%of Facebooks US ad revenue will come from mobile ads
2016
90%of Facebooks US ad revenue will come from mobile ads
2018
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
#5: Facebook wont kill YouTube
Different platforms, different solutions for marketers
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
YouTube US Ad Revenues, 20152019
2015 2016 2017 2018
$2.2 B$2.9 B
$3.4 B$3.9 B
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Facebooks video penetration has reached competitive levels in less than two years
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
How much of a threat to YouTube is Facebooks progress with scaling digital video?
CathyEzra
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
More US internet users turn to YouTube for video viewing than Facebook
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
YouTube has proven to be a reliable platform for delivering a positive return on investment
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
A battle is being waged over the live video viewing audienceFacebook and YouTube are tied
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
#6: Young people wont abandon Facebook in droves
Still not true
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Is Snapchat making a dent in Facebook usage among teens and millennials?
Ezra Lauren
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Facebook and Instagram remain dominant social media platforms for millennials, but Snapchat is growing in popularity
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
#7: Ad blocking wont get solved in 2016
The problems of ad blocking and ad avoidance will persist
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2016 eMarketer Inc.#eMwebinar
2016 eMarketer Inc.
Ad blocking hasnt been solved, but what progress has been made?
CathyEzra
Lauren#eMwebinar
2016 eMarketer Inc.
Ad blocking penetration rates in US and UK will slow in 2017, but still see double-digit growth
Ad Blocking PenetrationAmong Internet Users
Source: eMarketer, April 2016, June 2016
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Chart1
0.20.14
0.2630.205
0.320.27
US
UK
Sheet1
USUK
201520%14%
201626.30%20.50%
201732%27%
2016 eMarketer Inc.
Publishers are making progress with ad blocking in multiple ways
1. Passively reviewing ad blocking activity to better quantify its effects on revenues and audiences
2. Preventing users who employ ad blockers from accessing their content
3. Circumventing the ad blockers and serving ads anyway
4. Detecting ad blockers and giving consumers options
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2016 eMarketer Inc.
Stay Tuned for Our Predictions for 2017!
2017 Trends: The Future of Digital Marketing
Charm BianchiniSr. Director of Marketing Marketo@charmbianchini
Marketo | Marketo, Inc.
Trend 1: Technology
Marketers will leverage marketing technology more than ever before to scale and guide their customers at exactly the right place and the right time
Marketo | Marketo, Inc.
Trend 2: Personalization
Marketers will improve their level of personalization and move from basic targeting to advanced, orchestrated customer experiences across channels
Marketo | Marketo, Inc.
Trend 3: Account focus
Marketers will continue to shift from lead-centric to account-specific insights to penetrate companies within their sweet spot
Thank You
Charm BianchiniSr. Director of Marketing Marketo@charmbianchini
2016 eMarketer Inc.
Our Predictions for 2017
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#1: Artificial Intelligence
Our prediction: AI will not put marketers out of work. (At least not in 2017)
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#2: Papering Over Privacy
Our prediction: Internet users still wont change their behaviors despite hacking scares
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#3: Live Digital Video Will Clear a Huge Hurdle
Our prediction: Sometime in 2017, a live video stream will win a primetime-sized audience
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#4: Chatbot Reality Check
Our prediction: Chatbots in 2017? All talk and no action
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#5: Truly, Mobile, Deeply
Our prediction: 2017 will be the year of authentically mobile experiences
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#6: Food for Thought
Our prediction: Online grocery shopping will jump in 2017. And brick-and-mortar stores will play a starring role
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#7: Attribution Arises
Our prediction: Marketers will make the move to more complex forms of attribution modeling in 2017
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#8: The Medium Is the Message
Our prediction: 2017 will be the tipping point for mobile messaging. More than half of mobile users will use messaging apps
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#9: Fluent in Influencing
Our prediction: Influencers will take a significant chunk of the ad market in 2017
2016 eMarketer Inc.
#10: Let the Games Begin
Our prediction: Virtual Reality wont be a significant marketing channel until hardware becomes more widespread
2016 eMarketer Inc.
The Predictions for 2017 AI will not put marketers out of
work. (At least not in 2017.)
Internet users still wont change their behaviors despite hacking scares.
Sometime in 2017, a live video stream will win a primetime-sized audience.
Chatbots in 2017? All talk and no action.
2017 will be the year of authentically mobile experiences.
Online grocery shopping will jump in 2017. Brick-and-mortar stores will play a starring role.
Marketers will shift to more complex forms of attribution.
2017 will be the tipping point for mobile messaging.
Influencers will take a big chunk of the ad market in 2017.
VR wont be a significant marketing channel until hardware becomes more widespread.
Slide Number 1Slide Number 2#1: US digital ad spending wont surpass TV ad spendingSlide Number 4US Ad Spending, September 2015US Ad Spending, September 2016Whats behind the accelerated crossover and what does it mean for the future of advertising? Google and Facebook success, tech advances and mobile shift are key contributorsA few additional reasons: growth in programmatic and digital video spending#2: The voice of the consumer will be heardSearch and native social pages will drive voice activity growthSlide Number 12Are voice-based interfaces the next mobile frontier for marketers and advertisers?The volume of inbound calls to businesses from mobile devices is growing at double-digit rates Slide Number 15Still, inbound calls from mobile phones will influence roughly one-third of in-store salesSlide Number 17Slide Number 18#3: Mobile payments will take offUS Mobile Payment UsersAverage Annual Spend per US Mobile Payment UserAnnual Mobile Payments Transaction ValueIs there still a case for rapid US mobile payments growth or are expectations tempered?Two data points, of many, that point to growth: #4: Facebook will become nearly entirely mobileUS Facebook users who access the social network exclusively via desktop or laptop will number less than 14 million in 2016Will Facebooks mobile growthin both users and ad revenuehit a ceiling this year?Theres still room for growth in the number of mobile Facebook usersThe story is similar on the advertising fronttheres still room for growth on the mobile side#5: Facebook wont kill YouTubeYouTube US Ad Revenues, 20152019Facebooks video penetration has reached competitive levels in less than two yearsHow much of a threat to YouTube is Facebooks progress with scaling digital video?More US internet users turn to YouTube for video viewing than FacebookYouTube has proven to be a reliable platform for delivering a positive return on investmentA battle is being waged over the live video viewing audienceFacebook and YouTube are tied#6: Young people wont abandon Facebook in drovesIs Snapchat making a dent in Facebook usage among teens and millennials?Facebook and Instagram remain dominant social media platforms for millennials, but Snapchat is growing in popularity#7: Ad blocking wont get solved in 2016Slide Number 41Ad blocking hasnt been solved, but what progress has been made?Ad blocking penetration rates in US and UK will slow in 2017, but still see double-digit growthPublishers are making progress with ad blocking in multiple waysSlide Number 452017 Trends: The Future of Digital MarketingSlide Number 47Slide Number 48Slide Number 49Thank YouSlide Number 51Slide Number 52Slide Number 53Slide Number 54Slide Number 55Slide Number 56Slide Number 57Slide Number 58Slide Number 59Slide Number 60Slide Number 61The Predictions for 2017