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Embedding Risk in Everything we do.Allan Schwartz
Australian Maritime Safety Authority
NATIONAL CONFERENCE &
EXHIBITION 2014
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Who is AMSA???
IWRAP Mk2
IALA’s Quantitative Risk Assessment
Model
Australian Maritime Safety Authority
http://www.amsa.gov.au/about-amsa/corporate-information/mission-and-vision/
AMSA’s purpose
Is to:
► provide leadership in the development of safety and
environmental protection standards for responsible
operation of ships and safety to seafarers;
► monitor compliance with safety and environment
protection standards;
► respond to threats to the marine environment;
► provide systems that aid safe marine navigation; and
► rescue people in maritime and aviation distress
situations.
Australia’s Maritime Zone
► 3rd largest EEZ – 8.232 m km2
► 12,000 islands
► 59,736 kms of coastline
► 6 maritime boundaries
► covers all 5 of world’s ocean
temperature zones
Townsville
Geraldton
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Internal Organisational Risk Management
Comcover Awards for Excellence in Risk Management
But why???
External Risk
Response – the obvious one
• Search and Rescue
• Pollution Response
• Casualty/Incident Response
Pacific Adventurer
Pacific Adventurer
Other incidents
Ship banned from Australian ports
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has today placed a three-month ban on Vega Auriga (IMO 9347786).
The Liberian-flagged, 9981gt container vessel now on its way to Auckland, New Zealand from Brisbane, Australia is prohibited from entering any
Australian port for three months.
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) reported that the vessel had been detained three times since July 2013 for breaches of the Maritime
Labour Convention.
The breaches included improper payment of wages, inadequate living and working conditions and inadequate maintenance making the vessel
unseaworthy and substandard.
An AMSA spokesperson told IHS Maritime that the improper payment of wages were systemic, but would not divulge the amount. AMSA had notified
authorities in the next port of call.
“New Zealand is aware of the issues, as are all members of the Tokyo MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) on Port State Control,” he told IHS
Maritime.
General manager of AMSA’s Ship Safety Division Allan Schwartz stressed that ships trading with Australia must meet international standards.
“Vessels that do not meet such standards, including standards for the welfare and treatment of crew, pose an increased risk to seafarers, safe operations
and the marine environment,” he said in a release.
“Seafarer welfare is just as important as the proper maintenance of ship equipment, and an integral part of safe operations. A failure in either system
could lead to serious accidents.”
The ship’s management has been contacted for comment.
What if?
Prevention – the less obvious one
Marine Environment -Emergency Towage
► minimum level of emergency towage
around coast for incident management
► three tiers:
- Level 1: dedicated ETV (tug) in
northern Great Barrier Reef & Torres
Strait
- Level 2: contracted capability in
strategic locations
- Level 3: vessels of opportunity
National Risk Assessment (Frequency)
1999 Risk Assessment 2011Risk Assessment
National Risk assessment (Environment)
Environmental Sensitivity Environmental Risk Index
Risk Assessment – Future Trends
o Increase of 79% in total national port
traffic
o Increase of 81% in total national traffic
o Small commercial vessels assumed to
remain at present levels
o Offshore drilling assumed to remain at
current levels
o Offshore oil production to reduce by
89%
o Condensate production to increase by
73% (overall decline by 35%)
o Shore based oil consumption to
increase by 14%
Source 2011 2020
Tonnes/
year
% Tonnes
/year
%
Trading
ships at sea
212 22.3 387 32.2
Trading
ships in
port
174 18.3 337 28.1
Small
commercial
vessels
2 .2 2 .2
Offshore
production
310 32.7 217 18.1
Offshore
drilling
209 22 209 17.4
Shore-
based
42 4.5 48 4
Navigation Safety
Traffic Routeing Measures
Craft Tracking
GBR – ReefVTS
Remainder - AMSA
Craft Tracking
Under Keel Clearance
The commodities
boom…
For Bulk Carriers
=100 * EXP(-4 + ship age + time since previous inspection + (0.587 * coefficient if new) + (0.4536 * LN(1 + number of deficiencies at previous inspection)) + (0.354 * 1, if not inspected previously) + (-0.2212 * LN(Gross tonnage)) + Flag State coefficient) / (1 + EXP(-4 + ship age + time since previous inspection + (0.587 * coefficient if new) + (0.4536 * LN(1 + number of deficiencies at previous inspection)) + (0.354 * 1, if not inspected previously) + (-0.2212 * LN(Gross tonnage)) + Flag State coefficient))
For Other Ship Types
=100 * EXP(-3.07 + ship age + time since previous inspection + (0.00958 * time since last special survey) + (0.086 * coefficient if new) + (0.326 * LN(1 + number of deficiencies at previous inspection)) + (0.444 * coefficient if not previously inspected) + (-0.2054 * LN(gross tonnage)) + ship type coefficient + Flag State coefficient + RO coefficient) / (1 + EXP(-3.07 + ship age + time since previous inspection + (0.00958 * time since last special survey) + (0.086 * coefficient if new) + (0.326 * LN(1 + number of deficiencies at previous inspection)) + (0.444 * coefficient if not previously inspected) + (-0.2054 * LN(gross tonnage)) + ship type coefficient + Flag State coefficient + RO coefficient))
LN indicates natural logarithms. EXP = exponential.
Inspections
Current AIS vessel
tracks in Australia
Projected Traffic in
2015
Projected Traffic in
2020
Projected Traffic in
2025
Projected Traffic in
2030
Ports in the North West
Petroleum – Exploration & Production leases
Production & exploration
leases off shore (2009)
Marine Parks – Existing & Proposed
Existing & Proposed
Marine Parks
The Search for Malaysia Airlines MH370
AMSA Experience
B777-200ER 9M-MRO
Source: JIT/Google Earth, ATSB Report.
Flight Path derived from RADAR data.
Source: Inmarsat, ATSB website.
MH370 Handshakes
Source: ATSB
Source: Satellite Comms Working Group, ATSB Report.
Example of one comparison against actual flight
MH021 7 March 2014
Red path = predicted path; Yellow track = actual aircraft track
Source: Satellite Working Group, ATSB Report.
Possible southern final positions S1-S3 based on MH370 max range and time
Source: JIT/Google Earth, ATSB Report.
Possible final positions S4-S5 with 7th arc and max range cruise line
Source: JIT/Google Earth, ATSB Report.
Flight details - plan, fuel load, performance data
Emergency equipment - distress beacons, slide rafts, etc
B777 structural materials (what will float?)
Cargo Manifest (debris analysis)
Satellite imagery
Contrail analysis – satellite imagery
Weather and environmental – atmospheric and oceanographic
Underwater hydrophones
Logistics – search aircraft, vessels, personnel, equipment, shore-
based support, communications
Information: Many Sources – some examples
Plot of hydrophone acoustic event recorded
Magenta cross = most probable location of source; yellow area = uncertainty region
Source: Curtin University, ATSB Report.
Most Probable Location
Minimal data to calculate accurate splash point
No ELT detections
Last known position versus subsequent time flown to unknown location
Vast and changing search areas
Remote oceanic area, long distance offshore
Movement of search areas following JIT analysis – time to redeploy search
assets.
Elapsed time – impact on oceanic drift and debris dispersal
Tropical Cyclone influence on drift calculations and search
Search aircraft – available endurance
Availability of detailed description of cargo from manifest
Information on B777 components likely to float.
Some of the Search Challenges
Time for ships to reach aircraft sightings
Availability of ship-borne helicopters to investigate sightings
Sea pollution
Poor weather and search conditions on a number of days
Elapsed time between satellite imagery analysis and tasking aircraft/ships to
investigate possible objects
Multi-national civil/military coordination and communication
Sustainment of large logistical requirements
Media appetite. Social media useful.
Processing large amount of publicly submitted data online and crowd sourcing
satellite imagery.
Some of the Search Challenges
Supplement standard JRCC drift planning.
Purpose – to ensure international best methodology and
consensus drift modelling techniques applied to MH370 splash
point area
Search area – floating debris
“Reverse” drift – from floating debris location backwards
to estimated splash point.
Drift Planning Working Group
Maritime SAR and Oceanography experts:
AMSA
CSIRO – Marine and Atmospheric Research
Asia Pacific Applied Science Associates (APASA)
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Global Earth Modelling Systems (GEMS)
US Coast Guard
Multiple datasets/models
SLDMBs
Drift Planning Working Group
• Zero Leeway model –
confirms actual
surface Total Water
Movement
• Provides sea water
temperature – varied
from 7 to 28oC
• SLDMB – Self Locating Datum Marker buoy
• MetOcean Product – GPS receiver and Iridium
transmitter – average life 21 days
• Can be deployed from aircraft or vessel
SLDMBs
• 33 x SLDMB’s successfully
deployed to validate drift
modelling
• Comparisons run against all
three oceanic current data
sets used for modelling
Day 52 - Overall Drifted Probability Area
Day 52 – Drifted Probability Area Comparison – East Coast Australia
Day 52 – Drifted Probability Area Comparison - Europe
Day 52 – Drifted Probability Area Comparison – North America
Day 52 – Drifted Probability Area Comparison - China
Established 30th March.
Ensure the search being coordinated by AMSA and
ATSB is reinforced by strong liaison with all relevant
stakeholders, including families of passengers.
Staff seconded from relevant departments/agencies.
Originally located Perth. Moved to Canberra 9th May
2014.
JACC – Joint Agency Coordination Centre
Search Phase Transition – 28th April 2014
• Search for floating debris suspended
• Transition to intensified underwater search
• Search led by ATSB
• Overall investigation – Malaysian Government
End of Search Phase – 28th April 2014
• 42 day search. 345 flight sorties. 3177 total flight hours.
• 4.7 million square km cumulative search area
• Search aircraft:
• Civil – Australia and NZ (10)
• Military – Australia (5), USA (2), China (2), New Zealand (2), Japan
(3), Malaysia (2), Republic of Korea (2)
• Search vessels:
• Civil – Merchant ships
• Military – Australia, China, USA, UK, Malaysia
Ocean Shield TPL search coverage 4-14 April 2014
Source: Phoenix International and ATSB Report.
Led by ATSB.
Further work continued to refine analysis of both flight and satellite data by
specialists from UK, USA and Australia.
Priority area determined approximately 60,000 km2
This area subject of surface search Day 21-26.
Bathymetry of ocean floor since mid-May. Contracted vessel and Chinese
military vessel.
Tender for specialist company capable of deep-water search for MH370.
Intensified underwater search planned to commence August 2014.
Expected to take 12 months.
Next search phase
1st June 2009
Air France Airbus A330, Flight AF447
Rio de Janeiro to Paris
228 persons on board
Crashed in remote area, Atlantic Ocean
Investigation - French BEA (Bureau d'Enquêtes et
d'Analyses pour la sécurité de l'aviation civile)
Comparison with AF447
Comparison with AF447
AF447 MH370
Flight Planned Route Was on planned route when reported
missing.
Deviated significantly from planned route to
take up unknown route.
Last Known Position Was reporting by ACARS every 10 minutes.
ACARS failure messages from AF447 were
received by Air France including a Last
Known Position (LKP).
Was reporting by ACARS up till disappeared.
No further data other than satellite pings via
INMARSAT.
Speed Known = Mach 0.82 derived from ACARS
message information.
Unknown.
Comparison with AF447
AF447 MH370
Search Area Initial Search Area:
40NM (74KM) radius centred on Last Known
Position (LKP)
= 17,000 square KM.
Initial Australian Search Area:
693,170 square KM = 40 times larger than
AF447 initial search area.
Cumulative Australian search area total
18MAR to 28APR (last day search for
surface debris):
Almost 4.7 million square KM.
Search for Surface Debris 26 days.
This was based on no further bodies or
aircraft debris being found for the final 9
days of the search.
- Aircraft search operations ceased.
- Ship search operations ceased, except
for French Navy vessels which
remained conducting acoustic search
for the ULBs.
In Australian SRR = 42 days
Comparison with AF447
AF447 MH370
First Floating Debris Found Day 5 about 70KM from LKP.
NOTE – the BEA report states that this
(distance) considerably complicated the
search for the underwater wreckage.
Nil associated with MH370.
Floating Debris/Bodies Marine pollution contributed to confusion in
the early days of the search. Air searches
found lots of debris – it was difficult for air
crews to distinguish between marine
pollution and small debris that may have
been from AF447. It was not until ships
arrived in the area working with aircraft that
debris was able to be identified properly.
About 50 bodies were recovered by ships.
Same experience with marine pollution.
Datum Buoys deployed 9 33
Comparison with AF447
AF447 MH370
“Drift Committee” An expert working group of experts in SAR
drift, oceanography, meteorology, etc
attempted to estimate the crash location
through “reverse drift” calculations.
Various positions were calculated by
different agencies using different methods
and models with up to a 100KM variance.
Similar expert working group formed within
AMSA’s RCC Australia.
Nil surface debris located to allow “reverse
drift” calculation.
Satellite imagery No useful results.
Images from civil and military satellites were
used.
Aircraft flown to investigate objects
detected by satellite failed to identify debris
from AF447.
Similar experienced.
Comparison with AF447
AF447 MH370
Wreckage Location 6.5NM (12KM) from LKP.
Depth 3900 metres.
Wreckage found 2APR11 (671 days after AF447 missing) following detection by AUVs of a concentration of SONAR returns.
Wreckage spread over area of 10,000
square metres. Few large parts found.
2 further months spent recovering flight recorders and aircraft parts, mapping debris and recovering human remains.
Unknown.
Search area depth 3800 - 4800 metres.
Comparison with AF447
AF447 MH370
Cost of SAR Operation Estimated 80 million Euro
($118 million AUD)
TBA
Cost of Undersea
Operation
Estimated 31 million Euro
($46 million AUD)
TBA
Total Cost of SAR and
Undersea Operations
Estimated 111 million Euro
($164 million AUD)
TBA
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