Date post: | 29-Nov-2014 |
Category: |
Economy & Finance |
Upload: | the-motley-fool |
View: | 4,102 times |
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EMES vs. HCLP
Buy Battle
Determining which MLP to buy will come down to a few key metrics, management’s
guidance for the future, and how these MLPs are working to execute their growth plan.
Yield
Let’s begin with our first metric: Yield.
Yield
3.9%4.6%
YieldHistorically, BOTH of these yields would be
considered AVERAGE or LOW. Given many MLPs are sporting even lower yields right now, these
two look good comparatively.
Winner: EMESLet’s move on to the next metric.
MRQ Distribution coverage
An MLPs distribution coverage ratio should always be greater than 1.0 times distributions paid.
Credit rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s don’t give “bonus points” for higher coverage, but that
could let investors know how much breathing room an MLP could have for distribution growth.
MRQ Distribution coverage
1.18x coverageQ1 DCF $17.4 million
1.1x coverageQ1 DCF $26.2 million
MRQ Distribution coverage
This factor is a bit of a wash, both MLPs have adequate coverage.
In theory, because $EMES is a variable rate MLP, it should never (ever) miss on coverage.
Let’s move on to management’s guidance
Management guidance
• Distributable cash flow: N/A
• 2014 Distribution guidance:
$3.80 to $4.00
• Distributable cash flow ~$100 million to $130 million
• Distribution guidance: $2.30 to $2.50
Actual growth story: Emerge• 1 new mine coming online in 2014, in the permitting
stage for two other new mines expected online late 2014 to early 2015
• Recently secured 4 new contracts, existing customer contracts continue to grow
Quarter-over-Quarter*
• Net income +32%• Distributable cash flow +13%• Distribution +13% *EMES does not have YOY data available for all metrics.
Actual growth story: Hi-Crush• Recent contract with C&J Energy Services, five-
year supply agreement.• Recent contract with Halliburton, new long-
term supply agreement that increases min. volume commitment.
Year-over-Year• Net income +32%• Distributable cash flow +20%• Distribution +11%
Key takeaways
• Metrics at both of these MLPs are in good shape by MLP standards
• Growth is quite visible at both MLPs, and accelerating quickly
BUT• Neither of these MLPs offers an impressive yield.
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