1 | Page Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan: A threat to Regional Security About the Author: Syed Bilal Ahmed is a graduate from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad in the field of Defence and Strategic Studies. He is currently working as a research internee at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies. Abstract: ISIS has become the most terrifying and strongest non-state military organization in the world. Their presence in Afghanistan is a thing to be worried about. This research includes their objectives, aims, goals, strategies and also the counter strategies. ISIS is a threat to South Asian region so there must be some serious steps are expected by the regional countries to contain and tackle ISIS from penetrating into this region. 1. Introduction: The word “Caliphate” has its importance and worth for the Muslims all over the world. After World War I, the Ottoman Empire fell and Muslims lost their centralized power station. The concept of
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Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan: A threat to
Regional Security
About the Author: Syed Bilal Ahmed is a graduate from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad
in the field of Defence and Strategic Studies. He is currently working as a research internee at
Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.
Abstract:
ISIS has become the most terrifying and strongest non-state military organization in the world.
Their presence in Afghanistan is a thing to be worried about. This research includes their
objectives, aims, goals, strategies and also the counter strategies. ISIS is a threat to South Asian
region so there must be some serious steps are expected by the regional countries to contain and
tackle ISIS from penetrating into this region.
1. Introduction:
The word “Caliphate” has its importance and worth for the Muslims all over the world. After
World War I, the Ottoman Empire fell and Muslims lost their centralized power station. The
concept of nationalism prevailed and Muslim Nation States appeared on the map. This process
was fastened by de-colonization. Imperialism ended and nation states started to emerge on the
map of the world. Since that time period, Muslim states never tried to regain their centralized
power; however, they created a platform known as Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) to
address issues inside the Muslim states as well as their relationship with the other countries of
the world. Muslims, as a matter of fact, divided into various sects and thus sectarianism. Hence,
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the concept of single Muslim State died but not the idea of Muslim Caliphate. This idea was
fantasized by many Muslims because this word held a great meaning to the Muslims.
The sectarianism present inside Muslims in not only because of their difference of opinion but
also because of rigidness and strictness present among some of the practitioners. They are known
simply as “Hardliners”. Hence, the hardliners are those who never compromises on any of the
religious principles even if they are interpretations which could be right or wrong. Hence, it
creates difficulty to handle such elements. These elements could be found in every Muslim
community even inside Europe. However, hardliners are affected by the ideology they adopt to
practice. Here comes the impact of that ideology that creates impact on the minds of its
practitioners. Therefore, the most important thing that emerges is the ideology that creates
impact on the mindset of its practitioners. This psychological impact drives its practitioners
towards implementation. This general observation can be found in every religion and school of
thought.
Most of the terrorist organizations in the world practice Islam as a religion but their set of beliefs
is way different than all the other Muslims in the world. Al-Qaeda being a global terrorist
organization, has been damaging the stature of Islam for far too long. It doesn’t mean that all it
represents the true face of religion Islam. They but represent their interpretation of various
objectives of the religion that are condemned by many other schools of thought. Hence, the game
starts and ends with the ideology. Ideology can make or break the conflict.
It is believed that terrorist ideologies are even more attractive. Al-Qaeda could be an example but
the best example in this regard is Islamic State of Iraq and Levant. The ideology of Al-Qaeda has
become challenging not only for the neighbouring countries but also for the world because their
ideology is spreading like a virus. The downfall of Al-Qaeda after the killing of Osama bin
Laden also provided them with the space. Al-Qaeda’ fall back gave them the opportunity to step
into their shoes. The desperate fighters of Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria have joined ISIS in great
numbers. There is also a huge difference between the Like Al-Qaeda, the terrorists of ISIS have
more resources and they are enhancing their area of operation. Several small scale organizations
have joined them and one can predict the allegiance of more organizations is going to be towards
them soon. Therefore, a rivalry is accepted in this regard.
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The picture is getting clear. Afghanistan is important for Al-Qaeda as well as ISIS. The question
is why? And answer is that from Afghanistan, both the organizations can acquire man power.
Being a warring country, Afghan government has not a strict control over its borders which
provides ease in terrorist, weapons and money trafficking. Hence, ISIS wants to knock out Al-
Qaeda and Afghan Taliban from Afghanistan in order to achieve their larger objective i.e.
Caliphate all over the Islamic World. Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban are the hurdle in its way and
the fight has been started. The time will decide who is going to hold Afghanistan but the odds are
in the favour of the hosts because Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda, both have their roots deep
inside the territory of Afghanistan. Therefore, it is important to learn the ideals of ISIS and their
chances against the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda. For that purpose, study of their origin, their
skills, their ideology, their chances and their way of conducting affairs is must.
1.1. Emergence of ISIS or Daesh:
The tracks of ISIS leads back to Iraq when USA invaded Iraq. Al-Qaeda being a global terrorist
organization, had its roots in Iraq. Abu Mosab Al-Zarqawi, who worked with Al-Qaeda in
Afghanistan, came to Iraq from Afghanistan to participate in the war against US forces in 2003.1
In the same year, he set the foundation of a sub-group which was named “Jamaat Al-Tauheed
Wal-Jihaad”. This group was working direct under his command and he began to rise as a major
stake holder among the other terrorist leaders. The group JTJ started working under Al-Qaeda
but in 2004, Abu Musa Al-Zarqawi swore loyalty to Osama bin Laden and became the head of
Al-Qaeda operations in Iraq. With his rise, the JTJ also became more powerful and he changed
the name of JTJ to Tanẓīm Qāʻidat al-Jihād fī Bilād al-Rāfidayn, "The Organization of Jihad's
Base in Mesopotamia (OJBM)".2 In 2006, this group became the strongest among the other
terrorist groups. All the Sunni extremist groups were working more or less for Al-Qaeda. The
capture of Saddam Hussain and killing of many Shias during operations launched by US forces
forced all the insurgent groups to become united. Therefore, Zarqawi ordered OJBM to establish
contact with all the other groups working in Iraq to make an alliance. The OJBM did the same
1 Laub, Z. and J. Masters (2014). "Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria." The Council on Foreign Relations. June 12.
and most of the groups joined them or came under one flag. This alliance was named as
Mujahideen Shura Council. It was established in January 2006. This allied terrorist group
became the most powerful group and it outlawed the influence of other groups. Therefore, almost
all the insurgent groups joined Mujahideen Shura Council.3 In the same year, Zarqawi was killed
by US forces. This was a major setback for Mujahideen Shura Council and they had to take
serious counter measures. Therefore, they decided to launch a combined terrorist front. They
named it Islamic State in Iraq.4
The new organization with such an attractive name began with very less population as well as
logistic support. Both the requirements were fulfilled by the Iraqi government. Thanks to their
policies towards Sunnis. Their discriminatory policies with their Sunni population provided the
opportunity to Islamic State and they seized that opportunity with both hands. ISI propagated
their ideology towards suppressed Sunnis in Iraq who were in search of freedom to live
according to their will. The propaganda of ISI worked as expectedly and the Sunnis started to
join them readily. Their strength raised from few to thousands within two, three years. The Iraqi
government had no idea that this small terrorist organization would become a threat to their
existence. 2008 onwards, ISI started their war against the State of Iraq and their ally Kurds. With
the passage of time, they enhanced their area of operation along with their propagation of
ideology among Sunni tribes of Iraq. It is quite amazing that unlike any non-state actor, the
active beginning of ISI’s war against State of Iraq was more or less conventional in nature. The
rules of guerilla warfare seems to be failed in this case study. They adopted pure military
strategies primarily because of the involvement of army officials who had experience and skill.
They were the soldiers who were Sunnis and hence kicked out from the army by Shia
government. However, their initial activities did not explain their larger objectives. Their larger
objectives came into existence with the rebellion in Syria and their interest towards Syrian
territory.
Islamic State in Iraq had its strong hold in North Western part of Iraq when the Syrian Crisis
emerged. ISI supported the freedom fighters of Free Syrian Army who were also heavily funded
by USA.5 This funding was meant to over throw the Bashar Al-Assad Regime in Syria but it all 3 Ibid.4 "Isis, Isil or Da'ish? What to call militants in Iraq". BBC News. 24 June 2014. Retrieved 16 August 2014.5 Laub, Z. and J. Masters (2014). "Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria." The Council on Foreign Relations. June 12.
went wrong when Iraqi fighters joined Free Syrian Army.6 Soon they earned a huge influence in
the organization and most of its troops joined Islamic State. US funds, weapons and arms went in
the hands of the fighters of Islamic State. With all this power, they crushed all their rivals in
Syria and began direct fight against Bashar Al-Assad forces and they changed the name of their
organization to Islamic State of Iraq and Levant or Daesh. They got enough man power when the
soldiers of Saddam Hussein’s Army started to join them in great numbers. These were not only
the soldiers but also trained engineers, officers, Special Forces personnel, propaganda specialists
etc. who aided them in achieving their goal that is “Islamic Caliphate in Iraq and Syria”.
Now days, the situation is absolutely a maze. Bashar Al-Assad fighting against rebels as well as
ISIL militants. ISIL militants fighting against Syrian Army, Kurds in Iraq, Iraqi forces, Iranian
forces, US forces and somehow managing to survive the air strikes launched by several regional
and extra regional countries. The conflict is mostly based on the ideology but one must
understand other economic aspects in one’s mind. ISIS’ ideology has been attracting Sunni
Muslims from all around the globe for a very long time. They are killing Shia’s and Yazidi’s in
Iraq and Syria. The only no-state organization capable enough to deter them is Al-Qaeda and
they have also turned against them by beginning their moves in Afghanistan.
1.2. Differences between ISIS and Al-Qaeda:
Al-Qaeda, in fact, brought forth ISIS. Abu Mosab Al-Zarqawi and his ideology has created an
ever lasting impact on the minds of the fighters of ISIS. His acts show that he was not a big
follower of the ideology of Al-Qaeda. Rather, he wanted to make his own and he succeeded in
doing so. Al-Qaeda’s ideology. He has been regarded The Imam” among the fighters of ISIS. He
has given a unique set of beliefs to his followers which are strictly forbidden in the religion
Islam. Hence, ISIS is commonly known as “Takfiris” or “Khwarijeen” among all the other
Muslims who do not believe in them. Clearly they are destroying the image of Islam and its most
important concept which is Humanity. Killing innocents and then giving justifications according
to Quran and Hadeeth is absolutely saddening. Al-Qaeda has never done the killings of one
6 Barrett, R. (2014). "Foreign fighters in Syria." The Soufan Group, http://soufangroup. com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/TSG-Foreign-Fighters-in-Syria. pdf: 6.
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particular race anywhere in the world on such a mass scale like the fighters of ISIS are currently
doing against Yazidis and Kurds of Iraq. There are several other things which extricates both the
organizations.7
Starting with the ideology, almost every Al-Qaeda member belongs to the “Deobandi” sect and
they all are hardliners. Whereas, ISIS fighters follow “Salafism (Takfiri)”. According to this
particular sect, they consider all the other Muslims as wrong or improper followers of Islam.
They consider themselves as the best who are chosen by the God Almighty to perform jihad
against the enemies of Islam. Al-Qaeda’s propaganda was considered to be very good when
Osama bin Laden was around. After him, their propaganda campaign became very weak. This
gap was filled by ISIS. They propagated their message brilliantly. Their Salafi ideology became
popular when they wrapped it in the cover of Jihad. They used modern propaganda techniques as
they got the experts from Saddam Hussein’s Army. This gave them advantage over Al-Qaeda
and that is how they swept all of its members from Iraq. Now Al-Qaeda has a very limited
representation left in Iraq. Most of its members have joined ISIS. This also created a sense of
enmity between these two organizations.
ISIS is also different from Al-Qaeda in their war techniques, funding operations and brutality.
An important feature that differs ISIS from Al-Qaeda is that they have never attacked US or
European main land.8 This is quite amazing because it shows that ISIS is still lacking in its
global range especially when it comes to the west. No doubt, Western fighter have been joining
ISIS for the past few years but still ISIS has no real presence in USA and Europe. 9 On the
operational front, Al-Qaeda is purely a terrorist organization that works according to the
modified techniques of guerrilla warfare. On the other hand, ISIS is not a terrorist group.10 They
do promote terror but their structure is far better than any other non-state actors group. They
have a strong militia, government, territory, population support, finances, education as well as
health infrastructure. They govern a large territory in both Syria and Iraq. They have plenty of
7 Wong, K. (2014). "Five ways ISIS, al Qaeda differ." The Hill.
8 Bertrand, N. (2015). "We're getting to know just how different ISIS is from al Qaeda." Business Insider.
9 Ibid.
10 Cronin, A. K. (2015). "ISIS Is Not a Terrorist Group." Foreign Affairs 94(2): 87-98.
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resources which they use in their favour. The soldiers of this organization is well paid and they
earn good salary every month. The troops are loyal and every one believes in the objectives of
ISIS.
Taliban in Afghanistan cannot pledge allegiance to Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi because they
consider Mullah Muhammad Omer a righteous Ameer-al-Momineen. Taliban government in
Afghanistan was accepted by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia but no country would ever recognize
Islamic State as a de jure state.
Al-Qaeda’s ideology is Global Jihad without having a centralized power point. They think it is
too vulnerable for their enemies to attack and hit them. Therefore, they prefer guerrilla war,
precisely hit and run. Establishment of a government to run affairs according to their ideology is
their ultimate goal but they are far away to achieve it. On the other hand, reverse order could be
seen in the case of ISIS. They have established a government and they are running their affairs
according to their will. They are fighting against their rivals like a conventional military force
and their military strategies are helping them to maintain their hold over the captured territory.
Iraqi as well as Syrian forces are not capable to fight against them. Now, international
community has launched serious strikes against them but still, it is very difficult to crush them
completely.11
1.3. Rivalry between Al-Qaeda and ISIS:
ISIS has knocked Al-Qaeda out of Iraq and Syria. The rivalry was not surfaced until ISIS started
to take interest in Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban, being hand in hand with Al-Qaeda, do not want
any other group in Afghanistan which could be able to challenge them. Afghan Taliban does not
have global ambitions. They are centralized and localized; hence, they cannot bear ISIS in
Afghanistan because it would challenge their claim over Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban knows
that ISIS has opportunity and ability to strike them down in Afghanistan as they have an
11 Barrett, R. (2014). "Foreign fighters in Syria." The Soufan Group, http://soufangroup. com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/TSG-Foreign-Fighters-in-Syria. pdf: 6.
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appealing ideology. Therefore, they started direct combats against ISIS in order to contain them
in the very beginning. The rivalry is also there because some of the Taliban fighters have joined
ISIS and more are expected to come. The situation is not clear yet but one can predict a gory
conflict between these two rival organizations in Afghanistan.
2. Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan:
Since the declaration of Caliphate, ISIS is showing its capability to attract people all over the
world. They have shown their global ambitions. The unification of all Islamic countries under
their banner is what they are aiming for. Hence, ISIS is a potential threat.
12
2.1 Rise of ISIS in Afghanistan:
In late September 2014, the first fight between ISIS sympathizers and Afghan National forces
appeared on the screen.13 In late September 2014, fierce battles raged between Afghan security
forces and insurgents reported to be associated with the Islamic State in the Arjistan district of
12Rana, Muhammad Amir. “The Dawn”, July 04, 2014. http://www.dawn.com/news/1116799 13 LWJ STAFF, “Mapping the emergence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”, Long War Journals, March 05, 2015http://hiload.org/surf/svKLuxrsQzX102icoqxM0_xx-03_iS_tis_dnW98uuc-6M2ejL0qcWKobOJA7eg11b3vud2SBNtSkXBK8cxigx8NezmyJEIuCVieEEl-QG6jYtHMzHD4sUrT-35-4JBVT7xeYhmcE4AHkt9q26qQ
Ghazni province.14 At the time, Afghan officials reported that the insurgents had raised the black
flag of the Islamic State and were burning down homes and beheading captured security forces
and local residents alike. The incident in Arjistan is mired in controversy, as local Afghan
officials allegedly recanted their versions of events and admitted to embellishing the presence of
Islamic State fighters as a ploy to obtain more resources.15 It should also be noted that in early
February 2015, the Chief of Police for Ghazni denied that the Islamic State had created a
presence in the area, stating that the insurgents fighting against the Afghan Government were
local Taliban members.16
The reports started to surface in January 2015 that ISIS is penetrating inside Afghanistan.
Provincial Taliban Leader Walayat Khorasani has pledged alliance towards the ISIS and he was
appointed Governor of Khorasan province.17 Under his command, the desperate Taliban fighters
and new recruits started to join ISIS. However, the numbers game is not in favour of ISIS
fighters in Afghanistan and they have to work a lot harder than that in order to counter Afghan
Taliban and Afghan National Security Forces. Their operation area is small. They are striking at
limited targets but with their potential, one can predict their strategy to grow numbers. They are
concentrating on the Eastern provinces of Afghanistan where the Taliban influence can be
handled.18
14 Ibid.15 Ibid.16 Ibid.17 Stoltzfoos, Rachel. ISIS Takes It To The Taliban In Afghanistan, August 11, 2015.http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/11/isis-takes-it-to-the-taliban-in-afghanistan/#ixzz3naga7ZDd18 Ed. The ISIS Bandwagon: Afghanistan and Pakistan, March 06, 2015 http://www.eaglespeak.us/2015/03/the-isis-bandwagon-afghanistan-andhtml
These are the current members of ISIS who have been active in Afghanistan and Pakistan for the
since the beginning of this year. Pakistan’s operation against terrorists is showing its advantages
as it has been very helpful to contain terrorism and terrorists inside the operation area since the
beginning of this operation. That is the reason why ISIS has not been able to work freely inside
Pakistan. Pakistani authorities have given their verdict very clearly that they will not let ISIS
enter Pakistan. However, ISIS chain of command for Afghanistan is based upon highly
experienced militants. They know how to perform their role. They are moving with slow but
gradual pace. They are not in any hurry because they know it would be quite harmful for their
cause. People from Central Asia are joining them too. It would also give them access to Central
Asian states which Afghan Taliban does not have. Hence, opportunities are there for ISIS and
their military history shows that they always avail themselves off the opportunities.
25 Ibid.
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3. ISIS’ penetration and its potential in Afghanistan as a regional
threat:
It is a fact that ISIS is present and active in Afghanistan. Their larger objective is the
establishment of Khorasan province of Islamic State. For this purpose, they have to knock
Taliban as well as Afghan government out so that they could achieve their objectives. While
considering their potential, they have the ability to create difficulties which would not be a good
sign for the region which is already under huge stress of terrorism and extremism. ISIS is, in fact,
a potential threat to South Asian as well as Central Asian region.
3.1. ISIS strong hold in Afghanistan:
ISIS fighters are spread all over Afghanistan. In terms of stronghold, they have none. Their rivals
like Afghan government and Taliban could take an advantage of this. That is why ISIS has
started to develop and maintain their stronghold inside Afghanistan. They have started bringing
their fighting lines closer to one another. They also established a training camp in South
Afghanistan where they train new recruits to fight. The given picture shows the areas where ISIS
is concentrating.
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This picture also shows that Taliban-ISIS clashes are as its peak. Several clashes have been
reported in the media in which both the groups suffered casualties.27
3.2. ISIS game plan:
ISIS founded a new set of military strategies that could be termed as “conventio-guerrilla”
military strategies. Their set of military strategies contain both aspects of warfare in it. In Iraq
and Syria, ISIS fights like a conventional military force but they operate according to the
guerrilla strategies of warfare by making their moves strictly localized by their propaganda
campaign of hearts and minds. There they have local support with them which provide ease to 26 Ibid.27 Wyk, Tom. Could it get any worse? Taliban look set to clash with ISIS as Mullah Omar's successor vows to continue the war in Afghanistan, Daily Mail, August 01, 2015.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3182445/Could-worse-Taliban-look-set-clash-ISIS-Mullah-Omar-s-successor-vows-continue-war-Afghanistan.html#ixzz3neEseOVd
them when they operate. On the other hand, situation in Afghanistan is in reverse order. Here
they lack numerical strength, resources and mass public support whereas Taliban enjoy all these
privileges. Therefore, their game plan in Afghanistan is totally different from what they have
been playing in Iraq and Syria primarily because of these factors. Therefore, it is very difficult to
say anything about their game plan. However, one can see a pattern they are following. They are
not moving swiftly and silently. They are trying to get local support as well as support from other
terrorist groups. They are not involved in any mass scale activities against the government. A
guess is that they are currently working to acquire more numbers and resources. Hence, their
game plan would be wait and see policy as war is going on between Afghan Taliban and the
government. They would be seeking of an opportunity. They will strike when there is an
opportunity. Till then, they are happy to fight small skirmishes against both of their rivals. To
overcome the lack of resources, they are now involved in criminal activities like robbing banks,
kidnapping for ransom and drug smuggling. There is a marginal possibility that Afghan
government could use ISIS against Taliban as a counter. If this happens, it will give them
irrepressible forte. Afghan government still holds the key moves in this regard.
3.3. Stance of Pakistan as a next door neighbor:
Pakistan thinks that ISIS may shake hand with Afghan Taliban in order to remove Afghan
government. Pakistan is also concerned that the death of Mullah Omer has created a big space.
Many factions of Taliban are angry and they could join ISIS to avenge themselves.28 There is a
common belief that Pakistan still control the Afghan Taliban but this control is merely influence
which is present in Taliban Shura. Pakistan’s stance is clear that it will never allow any other
terrorist or extremist organization to grow and create difficulties. Pakistan is spending heavily on
its operation against terrorism. Pakistan wants to conduct bilateral talks between Afghan Taliban
and Afghan government to end their clash politically. Otherwise, Pakistan thinks that the joining
of Afghan factions in ISIS may result in their alliance and this would be the most dangerous
possibility in this regard.29
28 Army Chief’s statement at Royal United Institute for Defence and Security studies, Express online newspaper, October 04, 2015. http://www.express.pk/story/396451/ 29 Ibid.
Obviously, a new terrorist organization would bring terror. ISIS is even more lethal than Taliban
or Al-Qaeda. Afghan Taliban are only concerned with fight against Afghan government, NATO
and ISAF forces. They are not involved in promoting sectarianism in Afghanistan. Whereas the
same cannot be said about ISIS. Their ideology promotes sectarianism and in case they prevail,
Sectarianism would prevail too. Hence, the new wave of terrorism and extremism is at the door
step of this region. The front line states Pakistan and Afghanistan are already fighting against
them. It would be quite difficult for both the countries to fight against yet another wave of
terrorism until or unless they come to the same page.
3.5. Co-Strategy of Afghanistan and Pakistan:
Well in terms of any cooperation regarding the matter of ISIS, there is none between Pakistan
and Afghanistan. Both the countries rely on the blame game. There is tension between Pakistan
and Afghanistan. Afghanistan is involved in cross border attacks while it blame Pakistan that it is
exporting terrorist into the Afghanistan territory.30 In this environment, any hope for co-strategy
is vague. However, Pakistani government is trying to solve these issues with Afghanistan. An
example in this regard is the talks between Afghan government and Taliban which were held
because of the efforts of Pakistan. Afghan government should regard these efforts done by
Pakistan and both the countries should come to the common point that is joint operation against
terrorists. Together, Pakistan and Afghanistan can handle ISIS but no progress can be seen in this
regard. Both countries are moving on their separate paths.
3.6. Threat to other regional countries:
ISIS penetration in Afghanistan is no doubt a serious phenomenon but it is more a potential
threat. Interests of various regional and extra-regional countries have been there in Afghanistan
30 Ed., Cross border attacks: Is Pakistan mulling over surgical strikes on Afghanistan, September 25, 2015.http://pk.shafaqna.com/EN/14979
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and therefore they will protect their interests at all cost. ISIS could be a threat to the region but it
is too early to say that. Their activities are marginal and localized. Their ideology is, however,
the greatest threat of all which is pulling people towards them. This is an actual threat. Reports
are coming that Indians are also joining ISIS; however, their numbers are quite marginal.31
Indians are also concerned with this issue and they want to deal it with the help of Russians.
4. Counter ISIS Policy of Regional Countries:
Afghanistan: Afghanistan has faced the worst scenarios of war, terrorism and extremism. Their
policies are heavy influenced by the US policy makers. Hence, there would be no independent
policy from Afghanistan against ISIS. US forces have ensured Afghan government that they will
not let ISIS prevail in their country. However, there is a threat that Afghan government might use
ISIS against their rivals Al-Qaeda and Taliban. There is no proof in this regard, only a possibility
with some serious consequences. For the Afghan government, the Islamic State poses a unique
threat, different from that posed by the Taliban. Where the Taliban seeks to overthrow an Afghan
state that it sees as illegitimate and establish an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan, fighters
affiliated with the Islamic State in the country.32 Therefore, they are developing a joint strategy
with United States and the strategy is to nip ISIS in the bud in Afghanistan.33 US forces have
already started drone strikes against ISIS in which their deputy chief Abdul Rauf Khadim has
been killed.34
Pakistan: Pakistan being involved in operation against terrorism, has no urgent need to counter
ISIS because the forces have left no space for them. However, in a longer run, Pakistan would
stick to its “3D Counter Strategy”. This strategy has three points: Dialogue with the local
tribesmen of troubled areas. It includes hearts and minds game, propaganda campaign etc. in
order to bring the tribesmen back in the national circle. Deterrence is the second point. Pakistan
would maintain deterrence in order to bring peace in the areas along with its borders. However, if
31 Nanjappa, Vicky. How India will fight the ISIS with Russia, One India, September 09, 2015.http://www.oneindia.com/india/how-india-will-fight-the-isis-with-russia-1862291.html32 Panda, Ankit. Washington and Kabul Want a Joint Strategy against ISIS in Afghanistan, The diplomat, July 21, 2015. http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/washington-and-kabul-want-a-joint-strategy-against-isis-in-afghanistan33 Ibid.34 Ed. The ISIS Bandwagon: Afghanistan and Pakistan, March 06, 2015 http://www.eaglespeak.us/2015/03/the-isis-bandwagon-afghanistan-andhtml
the deterrence fails, the terrorists would face serious consequences. Development is the final and
most important point. Pakistan would try to bring development, investment, infrastructure
building, medical and educational facilities etc. in those areas so that it would earn population
support. Another important aspect is the political freedom to be given to those areas. Federal
administration should be dissolved in order to bring these people back in the political cycle of the
country. It might be helpful to find political solutions of any problem in the future.
Iran: Iran is one of the most anti-ISIS countries in the world. Iranian forces are involved in
Middle East in order to protect the Shias. Hence, they would not tolerate any ISIS activity near
their borders i.e. in Afghanistan. Iran would support Shia activists inside Afghanistan in order to
contain ISIS within the borders of Afghanistan.
India: India is worried because its people have started joining ISIS. India is looking forward to
develop a counter ISIS strategy with the help of Russia. However, India’s internal affairs would
make it really difficult to execute any anti-ISIS propaganda campaign. Administrative behavior
with Muslims and other minorities is even worse. Indian grass root economy is also shivering.
Hence, it would be very difficult for them to counter the appeal which has such attractiveness.
Bangladesh: ISIS sympathizers are there in Bangladesh and most recently, ISIS has killed a
Japanese tourist in Bangladesh.35 Bangladeshi government has no counter policy yet because it is
the most recent phenomenon that has occurred.
5. Contemporary Situation of Afghanistan:
The Afghan government announced the death of former Taliban leader mullah Omar on July 29,
2015, and the Taliban confirmed the report the subsequent day.36 Widespread knowledge of
Mullah Omar’s death will exacerbate existing fractures within the Taliban and accelerate a
power grab among several prominent individuals who have fundamental disagreements over the
objectives of the movement.37 This inflection could ultimately make permanent major divisions
within the group. A unity Shura, or council, is now arbitrating the leadership dispute. Al-Qaeda
35 Mullen, Jethro and Fareed Ahmed, ISIS claims responsibility for killing of Japanese man in Bangladesh, CNN, October 05, 2015. http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/04/asia/bangladesh-isis-japanese-man-killed
36 Byrne, H., et al. (2015). "tHE DEAtH Of mUllAH OmAR AND tHE RisE Of isis iN AfGHANistAN."
