Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
A. Remaître, J.-P. Malet, S. Sterlacchinni, A. Pasuto
Institut de Physique du Globe, Université de Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
CERG, Strasbourg, France
Emergency preparedness tools for landslides
http://omiv.unistra.fr
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
VARIOUS TYPES OF LANDSLIDES…
Wartschenbach, Autriche, 1997
DEBRIS FLOW LANDSLIDE
Villerville, France, 1984
ROCKSLIDE
La Clapière, France, 1996
ROCK FLUID SOIL
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
LANDSLIDE MITIGATION FLOWCHART
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
LANDSLIDE MITIGATION FLOWCHART
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Spatial and temporal modelling of hillslope dynamics
2. Landslide triggering and runout analysis (field scale identification of landslide mechanisms, threshold analysis, frequency/magnitude analysis)
1. Remote-sensing techniques for landslide inventory and displacement monitoring (correlation of optical images, InSar, LiDar)
3. Landslide susceptibility and hazard (geomorphology map, probabilistic spatial models)
Prob. of slope failure for critical rainfall from model simulations
‘Simulated’ hazard map
Malet et al. (2007)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Spatial and temporal modelling of hillslope dynamics
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Spatial and temporal modelling of hillslope dynamics
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Spatial and temporal modelling of hillslope dynamics
2. Spatial analysis of vulnerability & risk (including risk perception)
3. Scenario modelling for impacts assessments (climate change)
1. Developing quantitative hazard and risk assessment procedures
• Monte-Carlo simulations prob. of debris heights
HAZARD = f (debris heights; prob. of debris heights)
• Matrix-based approach
• 4 hazard classes: H1: Null; H2: Low H3: Moderate; H4: High
dh1 dh2 dh3 dh4
Pdh1 Null H2 H3 H3
Pdh2 H2 H3 H3 H4
Pdh3 H2 H4 H4 H4
Debris heights (H<0.5; H<1.0; H<1.5; H>1.5)
Pro
b.
deb
ris
hei
ghts
Malet & Bégueria (2007)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Spatial and temporal modelling of hillslope dynamics
Probabilistitc and physical modeling of debris flows for the entire Barcelonnette basin (Kappes et al., 2011)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
LANDSLIDE MITIGATION FLOWCHART
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Objectives: long-term time series, standardized acquisition, space-time forecasting Instrumentation: multi-parametric observations (kinematics, seismology, hydro-meteorology, geochemistry) Organisation: per sites and observation category Data: free access
OMIV – Observatoire des Instabilités de Versants French Landslide Observatory
Users:
scientists
risk managers
(RTM, BRGM, CEREMA, …)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
La Clapière Super Sauze
Avignonet
La Valette
Villerville
OMIV – Monitored landslides
Strasbourg
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Objective of the OMIV Deformation Service 1. Time series of surface displacement very accurate in absolute 3D coordinates (GNSS) 2. Maps of surface deformation (optical imagery, radar imagery, LiDAR) 3. Displacement forecast? Pre-alert / Alert thresholds?
70
1
70
4 70
3
70
5
70
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
701 702 703 704 705
Dis
pla
cem
ent (c
m)
Time (day)
?
?
? ?
E: < 5 cm
E: < 1 cm
Slumgullion (CO, US)
Tessina (IT)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
- point-based vs. image-based -permanent and campaign surveys - in-situ and remote monitoring Focus of this talk: service for GNSS data
OMIV approach: combination of techniques
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
GPS ‘reference’
GPS ‘moving’
Instrumentation
Geodetic receivers: Trimble NetRS / NetR9
Acquisition: 24h / 30s; 1h / 1s
Pont-Bourquin
OMIV Landslide GNSS Network
©UNIL
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Data transfer
OMIV Landslide GNSS Network
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Example of results: baseline - Villerville
Changes in baseline lengths:
Moving GPS vlrh / vlrb at Villerville
Period: Jan’10 – Aug’10
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
2011: Sauze 2011: Avignonet
2013: La Clapière 2013: La Valette
Time series – daily cumulated displacements
Example of results: time series
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
FLAME: Forecasting Landslide Accelerations induced by Meteorological Events
• To predict changes in displacement rates according to changes in
hydro-meteorology
• Three approaches: – Statistical model: Impulse Response model IR Output signal S simulated with a convolution product of
an input signal E by a transfer function G (Impulse Response)
– Mechanical model: 1D viscoplastic model MA 1D infinite viscous model (Herrera et al., 2009) assuming a pre-existing slip
surface and a rigid body on top.
– Statistical-Mechanical model (IR & MA): IRMA IR model for rainfall –> GWT
MA model for GWT -> Displacement
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Surface displacement forecast: La Valette
- The model reproduces the observed data with very good accuracy
- MA model (rain -> GWL) provides the best predicted displacements
- No large acceleration / fluidization event up to now
Nov. 09–Mar. 13: lva1 Nov. 09–Mar. 13: lva1
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
LANDSLIDE MITIGATION FLOWCHART
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Example of the SISTEMATI PROJECT
The DSS provides Decision Makers with:
- the list of actions to put in practice
- the instruction of executions
- the people in charge to perform each action
- the resources available,
- documents to be issued
(according to national, regional and local laws).
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Code 0 – Critical state: null
Code 1 - Critical state: normal
Code 2 - Critical state:
moderate
Code 3 - Critical state: high
Code 4 - Critical state:
emergency
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Document to be issued for
Code 2 - Critical state: moderate
Instructions of execution and people in charge
of performing each procedural step
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
General information about
People in charge involved
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Decision Support System (DSS)
General information about
Entities involved
(Control Room)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
1. Risk Scenario; 2. Number of Elements at Risk Exposed; 3.
Identification of Emergency Gathering Areas; 4. People Evacuation;
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
2. Number of affected people
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Communication systems: disaster
managers are provided with Phone
calls, SMS, e-mail, Skype, etc.
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Track logs (dot lines) system
monitoring in real-time squads
moving from different Civil
Protection warehouses to the
area of disaster.
Decision Support System (DSS)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
LANDSLIDE MITIGATION FLOWCHART
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Public Education
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Public Education
Exposition about mountain risks in the Barcelonnette basin (2014)
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Public Education
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Conclusions:
- Long-time series and historical events database;
- Accurrate and frequent observations of triggering factors (climate, tectonic,etc.);
- The use of different kind of models at different time and spatial case using strong hazard scenarios.
+ Assessing landslide hazard needs:
+ Assessing landslide risk needs:
- Complete and evolutive database of stakes ;
- Emergy warning systems based on Observatories (OMIV);
- A Decision Support System which can link all the stakeholders and the scientific community in charge of hazard evaluation;
- To educate the population threatened by natural hazards like landslides.
Civil protection in diverse societies... June 12-13 2014, Strasbourg, France
Thank you !