Date post: | 29-Jul-2015 |
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Emergent EnergyFutures
James Hamilton | University of Tasmania
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This presentation will discuss
1. Renewable Markets
2. Energy Storage
3. Electric Vehicles
4. Early Adoption & Int. Trends
5. Emergent Energy Future’s
6. Your Industry
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The University of Tasmania Centre for Renewable Energy Power Systems
>8 Full Time Academic Staff
>15 Full Time PhD & Masters Students
Unique Facilities include;
• Internet Connected Micro-grid Laboratory;
• Remotely Connected Research Workstations;
• Solar Research Facility; and,
• Wind Turbine Torque Transients Laboratory.
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed.”William Ford Gibson
Back to the Future
NASDAQ+65%
+478%Tesla800%
600%
400%
200%
Benchmark
Stock Price Growth since 1st Jan 2013
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Old World Reality•Author >> Publisher (Prepublication) >> Publisher >> Printer >>Wholesaler >>Retailer>>Consumer
New World Reality•Author <<>>Consumer
Market Transformations “the Facebook effect”
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Market Transformations within our industry
Old World Reality•Generator >> Network Transmission >>Network Distribution >> Retailer >> Consumer
New World Reality•Generator <<>> Consumer
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewable Landscape | LCOE utility-scale RE technologies, 2010 and 2014
Source: IRENA, RE Generation costs in 2014
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewable Landscape | LCOE utility-scale technologies, H1 2014
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, LCOE H1 2014
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewable Landscape | Projected 2020 Australian LCOE
Source: CSIRO, Australian electricity market analysis report to 2020, May 2014
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewable Landscape | Projected 2020 Australian LCOE
Source: CSIRO, Australian electricity market analysis report to 2020, May 2014
•Renewables are approaching cost parody with conventional generation within a number of applications;
•Wind and solar PV the lead technologies;
•PV LCOE exhibits significant spread;
•Onshore wind is now one of the most competitive sources of electricity available.
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewables ~ Solar PV
Source: NREL, PV Pricing Trends, Historical, recent and near term projections 2014 edition
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewables ~ Solar PV Module Costs
Source: NREL, PV Pricing Trends, Historical, recent and near term projections 2014 edition
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewables ~ Solar PV Average System Price
1. Data represent the max. and min. figures from: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (05/15/14); Cowen & Company (04/24/14); Deutsche Bank (04/23/14, 05/06/14, 05/08/14); Stifel Nicolaus (03/20/14).
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewables ~ Solar Summary
Source Reference. Greenpeace/EREC, “Energy Revolution,” May 2014 (utility-scale only); International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2013,” November 2013 ( New Policy & 450 Scenarios for utility-scale & commercial-scale); Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Q2 2014, “PV Market Outlook” (05/15/14).
• Dramatic solar PV pricing discounts set to plateau sub $1/watt
• Major system price reductions are not expected to come from PV module price alone, as was the case in previous years.
• Analysts expect the system prices of both utility-scale and distributed systems to continue to fall in the near future
• Distributed systems are expected to reach between $1.50/W - $3.00/W by 2016
• Utility-scale systems are expected to reach between $1.30 - $1.95/W by 2016.. 1
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
• Analysts expect pricing in all PV markets to continue to decrease in the long-term.
• Current analyst projections are far lower than projections made in recent past
Renewables ~ Solar PV Average System Long Term Projections
Source Reference. Greenpeace/EREC, “Energy Revolution,” May 2014 (utility-scale only); International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2013,” November 2013 ( New Policy & 450 Scenarios for utility-scale & commercial-scale); Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Q2 2014, “PV Market Outlook” (05/15/14).
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewables ~ Wind
Source: US Department of Energy, Wind Vision, 2014 market report
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewables ~ Wind
Source: US Department of Energy, Wind Vision, 2014 market report
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Renewables ~ Wind Summary
1: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/wind-power-shown-to-slash-nem-prices-cut-network-volatility-90191
• Wind efficiency delivers discount pricing to sub $1/watt
• Major system price reductions are expected to come from capacity gains, as was the case in previous years.
• Wind has demonstrated its ability to reduce wholesale electricity prices and will continue to be a strong feature of the revised RET obligation.1
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Energy in a Nutshell | Energy Storage
Source: US Department of Energy, Grid Energy Storage, December 2013
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Energy Storage| Possible Jigsaw Pieces
Source: US Department of Energy, Grid Energy Storage, December 2013
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Energy in a Nutshell | Li-Ion Cost
Source: Michael De Koster, Laborelec GDF Suez, Battery Cost Evolution, May 2015
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Source: Electric Vehicle Initiative, Global EV Outlook, Understanding the EV Landscape to 2020, April2013
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
•Electric vehicles currently represent a significant price premium over ICE models;
•Charging infrastructure remains a barrier to tipping point integration;
•Large fleet and lease vehicles represent the opportunity for immediate uptake within Australia, with current pricing on parody for lease equivalent.
•No EV to grid demand generation envisaged short term although EV market to directly feed repurposed energy storage application.
Electric Vehicles
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
•Battery storage the game changer, awaiting price point discounts.
•Will see batteries everywhere across remote and edge of grid systems prior to widespread residential uptake.
•EV’s not a game changer in their own right, however large overlap with battery storage discount rates.
•Wind and Solar ready for medium to high level of penetration, waiting on storage solutions
International Experience
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
•Will consumers go off-gird predicating the network death spiral ?
•Will consumers adopt battery storage for peak shifting ?
•Will EV’s outsell ICE vehicles?
Our Energy Future
Faculty of Science, Engineering & Technology
Your Industry
• When the levelised cost of solar PV falls below the sum of the wholesale price and retail marginsThen it doesn’t matter what happens to network tariffs
circa 2020
• When the levelised cost of solar PV plus battery storage falls below the evening peak priceThen batteries appear in garages and basements
circa 2025
• When the levelised cost of solar PV and batteries falls below the average cost of power to the consumerThen consumers go off-grid
circa 2030
Elon Musk
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“I could either watch it happen,or be part of it.”
Enjoy the journey
James Hamilton email [email protected]