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March 2018 Emerging markets equity outlook This presentation is intended for Professional Clients as defined by MIFID only and should not be distributed to or relied upon by Non professional clients. The information contained in this publication is not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For illustrative purpose only, this document is a global view of the recent evolution of the economic conditions. This is a marketing support which does not constitute neither an investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell investment. This commentary is not the result of investment research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. Non contractual document
Transcript
Page 1: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

March 2018

Emerging markets equity outlook

This presentation is intended for Professional Clients as defined by MIFID only and should not be

distributed to or relied upon by Non professional clients. The information contained in this publication is

not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For illustrative purpose only, this document is a

global view of the recent evolution of the economic conditions. This is a marketing support which does

not constitute neither an investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell investment. This

commentary is not the result of investment research. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal

requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any

prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

Non contractual document

Page 2: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

2

Emerging markets equity outlook2018 market performance

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceSource, HSBC Global Asset Management as of February 2018.

The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

95

100

105

110

29 D

ec 1

7

5 J

an 1

8

12 J

an 1

8

19 J

an 1

8

26 J

an 1

8

2 F

eb

18

9 F

eb

18

16 F

eb 1

8

MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI ACWI S&P 500

Strong inflows into equities in early January drove a

continuation of the 2017 rally

Higher than expected US wage growth triggered

inflation fears and concerns that interest rates would

rise faster than expected, leading to a sharp correction

Emerging markets have since recovered back to

positive territory year-to-date

The positive outlook for emerging markets equities has

not changed

– Attractive expected returns

– Operating leverage and capital expenditure could allow for

further growth in earnings and improvements in profitability

– Macro environment remains supportive

– Valuation-profitability looks attractive versus own history and

versus developed markets

Global growth should drive cyclical inflation; the key

market risk is whether this inflation increases faster

than expected

Equity market performance

(Rebased to 100 on 29 Dec 2017)

Page 3: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

3

Emerging markets equity outlookExpected returns

Forecast 10-year nominal returns

(annualised, USD unhedged)

Equities offer more attractive potential returns relative to bonds

and cash

Within equities, emerging markets offer favourable returns

versus developed markets

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceSource: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 31 January 2018.

The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Global bonds

US Corporate Credit

EUR High Yield

US High Yield

Local EM Debt

Global listed real estate

Asia ex Japan

Emerging markets

Japan

UK

Euroland

Canada

US

Developed markets

Global

Equity

Page 4: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

Earnings

Page 5: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

5

Emerging markets equity outlookEarnings outlook – summary

Upward trend in earnings revisions

Earnings growth supported by improvements in operating margins

Increase in capital expenditures underscores positive corporate outlook

Earnings growth evident across sectors

Profitability has improved

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceSource, HSBC Global Asset Management as of February 2018.

The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 6: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

6

Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings revisions

Emerging markets earnings revisions

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Continued upward trend in net earnings revisions

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as of 31 January 2018.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net num

ber

of com

panie

s w

ith p

ositiv

e r

evis

ions a

s a

% o

f to

tal

5-year average

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 7: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

7

Emerging markets equity outlookEarnings growth

Emerging markets equity earnings growth

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

2017 saw strong earnings growth with economic acceleration

Consensus estimates double digit growth of 13.3% in 2018

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

For illustrative purposes only.

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year-

on-y

ear

Earn

ings P

er

Share

gro

wth

(%

)

2018e 2017 2016

Emerging Markets 13.3% 23.4% 7.5%

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, IBES estimates, as at 31 January

2018. For illustrative purposes only.

Emerging markets equity earnings growth

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 8: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

8

Emerging markets equity outlookOperating margin

Operating margin

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Operating margin has improved

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

8

10

12

14

16

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Opera

tin

g m

arg

in (

%)

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 9: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

9

Emerging markets equity outlookCapital expenditure

Capital expenditure

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Increase in capital spending underscores positive corporate

outlook

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Capital expenditure

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 10: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

10

Emerging markets equity outlookFree cash flow

Free cash flow

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Higher free cash flow could support shareholder returns

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fre

e c

ash flo

w p

er

share

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 11: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

11

Emerging markets equity outlookEarnings breadth

Emerging markets sector earnings growth

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Most sectors are accelerating

Materials and energy slowing from high levels

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as of 31 January 2018.

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year-

on-y

ear

Earn

ings P

er

Share

gro

wth

(%

)

Consumer Discretionary Industrials Materials

Energy Financials Real Estate

Technology Consumer Staples Health Care

Telecom Utilities

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 12: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

12

Emerging markets equity outlookProfitability

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

8

10

12

14

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Retu

rn o

n e

quity (

%)

Return on equity

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Profitability has improved

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 13: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

Economic activity

Page 14: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

14

Emerging markets equity outlookEconomic activity – summary

Global growth continues to expand at a robust pace

Economic acceleration across emerging markets

PMIs over 50 and rising

Inflation remains low and has allowed for accommodative monetary policies

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceSource: HSBC Global Asset Management. February 2018.

The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 15: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

15

Emerging markets equity outlookGlobal growth

Global economy continues to expand at a robust pace

Composite lead indicator

(Industrial confidence, Consumer confidence, Capacity utilization, Unemployment, Producer Prices, Credit spreads, Earnings

revision ratio)

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Quantitative Strategy, MSCI, IBES as of 17 January 2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 16: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

16

Emerging markets equity outlookGlobal growth

Recovery in global investment growth

Emerging markets are a beneficiary of global demand

World Real Investment

(Gross fixed capital formation, year on year %)

Source: Haver Analytics, IMF, national sources, World Bank, Morgan Stanley Research as of February 2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 17: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

17

Emerging markets equity outlookGDP growth

GDP growth

(Emerging markets)

Emerging markets growth accelerating along with global growth

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year-

on-y

ear

real G

DP

(%

)

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 18: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

18

Emerging markets equity outlookExports

Exports

(Emerging markets)

Emerging markets export engine has restarted

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis as of 22 December 2017.

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

janv.-01 janv.-03 janv.-05 janv.-07 janv.-09 janv.-11 janv.-13 janv.-15 janv.-17

Year-

on-y

ear

Export

s (

%)

Value Volume

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 19: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

19

Emerging markets equity outlookPMIs

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Markit, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Manufacturing and Services PMIs are in expansionary territory

PMI Manufacturing

(Emerging Markets)

PMI Services

(Emerging Markets)

48

50

52

54

2015 2016 2017 2018

PM

I M

anufa

ctu

rin

g

48

50

52

54

2015 2016 2017 2018

PM

I S

erv

ices

PMI >50 implies expansionary PMI >50 implies expansionary

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 20: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

20

2

4

6

8

10

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Year-on-year CPI Central Bank Rate

(%)

Emerging markets equity outlookInflation

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Inflation is low in emerging markets

Provides governments with flexibility to ease policy

Inflation and Central Bank Rate

(Emerging markets)

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 21: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

21

Emerging markets equity outlookCurrent account balances

Current account deficit as a percentage of GDP

(Emerging markets)

Improved current account positions reduce financial

vulnerability of emerging markets

Better fiscal balances should help achieve more sustainable

growth

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Curr

ent

account deficit a

s %

of

GD

P

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 22: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

22

Emerging markets equity outlookMonetary policy

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Global liquidity remains accommodative

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 23: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

Valuations

Page 24: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

24

Emerging markets equity outlookValuation and profitability

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Valuation and profitability is attractive compared to historic levels and versus developed markets

Valuation-Profitability

(MSCI Emerging Markets, Jan 2000 – Jan 2018)

Valuation-Profitability

(MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI World)

Emerging Markets

Developed Markets

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

10 11 12 13

Price-t

o-B

ook (

x)

Return on Equity (%)

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

Price-t

o-B

ook (

x)

Return on Equity (%)

2000

20182017

2016

2008

2010

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 25: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

25

Emerging markets equity outlookValuations

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Valuations have risen with earnings

Multiple expansion from these levels may be limited

Price-to-Earnings

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Price-to-Book

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

6

10

14

18

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Price-t

o-E

arn

ings (

x)

1

2

3

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Price

-to-b

ook (

x)

5-yr average

5-yr average

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 26: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

Risks

Page 27: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

27

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks we are monitoring

Key risks

Lo

w t

o h

igh

im

pact

Lower to higher probability

Political uncertainty/geopolitics

Monetary

policy actions

China growth

slowdown

Market volatility

Inflation expectations

US Dollar recovery

Oil price collapse

Trade frictions

Investor sentiment

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, as at 31 January 2018.

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 28: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

28

Risks Views

Inflation expectations • Higher than expected inflationary pressures could cause the Federal Reserve to raise rates faster than

expected

Monetary policy actions • Policy rates in G3 economies to normalise at a gradual pace

• Market has priced in three US rate hikes in 2018

• ECB’s forward guidance remains dovish

• QE in Japan likely to continue

Market volatility • Market volatility near pre-crisis lows

• Markets may react sharply to specific data releases or small events

US Dollar recovery • Emerging markets debt has shifted towards local currency versus US Dollar

• Improvements in current account balances and FX reserves

China growth slowdown • Government focus on deleveraging, supply side structural reforms

• Stimulus-led sectors (energy, industrials, materials) may see slowdown

• Growth could become more consumption driven

• High-tech and services sectors continue to grow

Oil price collapse • OPEC has been coordinated and continues to cut daily output

• Difficult to predict supplies outside OPEC (e.g. shale)

Trade frictions • NAFTA negotiations ongoing

Political uncertainty / geopolitics • Brazil Presidential election in October key to continuing reforms

• Several global hot spots

Investor sentiment • Significant flows year to date

• Strong equity flows are positive for share prices but can create technical risk

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks we are monitoring – summary

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, as at 31 January 2018. Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 29: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

29

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – inflation expectations

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Should expect cyclical inflation given strong global growth

Signs of some inflation acceleration in the US

Market assumes a continuation of low inflation, which adds to the risk of an inflation shock

US fiscal stimulus could affect bond yields

University of Michigan expected change in prices CPI consensus forecasts

(Developed Markets)

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

avr.-16 juil.-16 oct.-16 janv.-17 avr.-17 juil.-17 oct.-17 janv.-18

US Eurozone JapanYe

ar-o

n-y

ear

(%)

2

3

4

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

(%)

Next year Next 5-10 years

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 30: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

30

Implied Fed Funds target rate

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – monetary policy actions

Expect policy normalisation to be at a gradual pace in G3 countries

Market has priced in three US rate hikes in 2018

Could see a reduction in Eurozone stimulus towards September on improved growth and inflation

Inflation in Japan remains too low to consider exiting QE policies

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Central Banks’ balance sheets

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

déc.-17mars-18 juin-18 sept.-18déc.-18mars-19 juin-19 sept.-19déc.-19

ECB FED BoJ G3 total

US

Dbn (

change fro

m p

revio

us q

uart

er)

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 31: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

31

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – market volatility

Equity market volatility

(MSCI Emerging Markets)

Equity market volatility below pre-crisis lows

Emerging markets equities are nearing 2007 and 2010 levels

Markets may react sharply to specific data releases or small

events

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 23 February 2018.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

janv. 06

janv. 08

janv. 10

janv. 12

janv. 14

janv. 16

janv. 18

MSCI Emerging Markets 260 Day Volatility (RHS)

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 32: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

32

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – China growth slowdown

China sector earnings growth

(MSCI China)

Most sectors are accelerating

Materials and energy growth is positive but could be slowing

Some concern that stimulus-led sectors may slow once stimulus is removed

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year-

on-y

ear

Earn

ings P

er

Share

gro

wth

(%

)

Consumer Discretionary Industrials Materials

Energy Financials Real Estate

Technology Consumer Staples Health Care

Telecom Utilities

Industries supported by China’s stimulus plan

Sector

• Infrastructure – railways, roads, grids

• Real estate - low cost housing

• Manufacturing – machinery, textile

• Auto, steel industries

• Energy efficiency and environmental projects

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

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33

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – China growth slowdown

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as of February 2018.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Info

rma

tio

nT

echnolo

gy

Real E

sta

te

Consum

er

Dis

cre

tio

nary

Ma

teria

ls

Fin

ancia

ls

Health C

are

Consum

er

Sta

ple

s

Industr

ials

En

erg

y

Te

lecom

min

catio

nS

erv

ices

Utilit

ies

MSCI Emerging Markets index performance

(2017 USD returns, %)

Technology performed strongly in 2017 retuning 61.5%, with index heavyweights Tencent and Alibaba rising more than 90%

Emerging market equities, without the contribution of those holdings would have still delivered double digit returns of 31.5%

Sectors such as real estate, consumer discretionary, materials and financials have generated strong returns contributing to

overall performance

MSCI Emerging Markets sector returns

(2017 USD returns, %)

31,47

6,36

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Contribution of Alibaba and Tencent to performance

MSCI Emerging Markets performance without Alibaba and Tecent

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

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34

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – US Dollar recovery

US Dollar

(DXY Index and MSCI Emerging Markets)

USD weakness attributed to growth differentials

Well-signalled pace of Federal Reserve interest rate

normalisation

Some USD support from overseas USD repatriation given

Trump’s tax plan

Strong USD beneficial to emerging market exports

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MSCI Emerging Markets Dollar Index (DXY inverted, RHS)

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

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35

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – US Dollar recovery

Debt in Emerging Markets, and Asia in particular, has shifted towards local currency versus US Dollars,

helping Emerging Markets to be less vulnerable to foreign exchange movements

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

FX reserves

(Select Emerging Markets countries)

Source: Worldscope, FactSet, Citi Research, as at 14 February 2018.

Debt exposure by currency

(Emerging Markets)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Phillipines Taiwan Thailand

Dec-2014 Dec-2016 Nov-2017

US

Dolla

r, b

illio

ns

Total debt by currency

Local USD EUR Other

Emerging Markets 63% 21% 2% 14%

Asia ex Japan 70% 13% 1% 16%

EMEA 39% 46% 12% 3%

Latin America 32% 60% 5% 3%

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 36: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

36

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

Brent Crude (US Dollar/bbl) MSCI Emerging Markets

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – oil price collapse

Brent Crude and MSCI Emerging Markets OPEC has been coordinated and continues to cut daily output

Difficult to predict supplies outside OPEC (e.g. shale)

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 37: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

37

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – trade frictions

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 31 January 2018.

NAFTA Trans-Pacific Partnership

The North American Free Trade Agreement is an

agreement signed by Canada, Mexico, and the United

States, creating a trilateral trade bloc in North America

Trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada,

Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru,

Singapore and Vietnam

Negotiations have started on a new trade agreement

called Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for

Trans-Pacific Partnership

The agreement came into force on January 1, 1994 Signed on 4 February 2016; has not entered into force

Ongoing negotiations The United States withdrew from it afterwards

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 38: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

38

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – political uncertainty

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Country Date Office

Russia 18 March – first round

1 April – second round

President

Egypt 26 March President

Colombia 27 May President

South Korea 13 June Local election

Indonesia 27 June Local election

Mexico 1 July President

Chamber (all)

Senate (all)

Pakistan 15 July President

Malaysia On/before 24 August Parliament

Brazil 7 October – first round

28 October – second round

President

Vice President

National Congress

State Governors

Electoral calendar in 2018 is busy across emerging markets

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 39: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

39

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – geopolitics

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management as at 31 January 2018.

Area/country/region Outlook

North Korea Difficult to predict

Syria

Jerusalem

Iran

Qatar

Yemen

Difficult to predict

Russia / Crimea We believe sanctions are priced in

Afghanistan Difficult to predict

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 40: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

40

Emerging markets equity outlookRisks – investor sentiment

*Year to date 21 February 2018.

Source: EPFR Global Equity Fund Flows Database, Morgan Stanley Research, HSBC Global Asset Management, as at February 2018.

Significant flows year to date

Strong equity flows are positive for share prices but can create technical risk

Emerging Markets (ex-China A) equity fund flows

(USD, billion)

Emerging Markets (ex-China A) equity fund flows

(USD, billion)

53,6

-53,3

83,393,1

-45,8

47,9

-25,1 -23,3

-47,6

4,6

87,5

31,4

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD2018*

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 41: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

Appendix – BRIC outlook

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42

Emerging markets country outlookBrazil

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, CEIC, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Domestic economic recovery should continue to support earnings growth

Falling inflation provides scope for further easing

Reform progress could provide impetus to growth

Presidential elections in October 2018 may create uncertainty

GDP and PMI

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Real GDP QoQ % Manufacturing PMI

Inflation and interest rates

(%)

Earnings growth

(MSCI Brazil, earnings per share)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018 (

e)

EPS Earnings, positive

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

CPI SELIC

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

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43

Emerging markets country outlookRussia

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, CEIC, Bloomberg as at 31 January 2018.

Domestic economic recovery should continue to support earnings growth

Oil price remains a key driver; if current strength maintained, will be a tailwind for GDP and earnings

Government fiscal reforms such as the newly adopted fiscal rule which limits budget expenditures should reduce the economy’s

dependence on oil and gas and contribute to economic stability

GDP and PMI Correlation with oil

(MSCI Russia and Brent Crude)

Earnings growth

(MSCI Russia, earnings per share)

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Real GDP QoQ % (LHS) Manufacturing PMI (RHS)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

MSCI Russia vs Brent (52wk rolling correlation)

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 44: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

44

Emerging markets country outlookIndia

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31

January 2018.

Positive macro environment to support corporate earnings growth

Governments reform focus is positive longer term, may serve challenges in the near term

State elections in 2018 and general elections in 2019 may bring market volatility

GDP and PMI Structural reforms

(Example: Goods and services tax)

Earnings growth

(MSCI India, earnings per share)

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31

January 2018.

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Real GDP, qoq, % (LHS) Manufacturing PMI (RHS)

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, PIB, Business Line,

MTEF of Union Government, YES BANK as of August

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 45: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

45

Emerging markets country outlookChina

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at 31

January 2018.

Economy is rebalancing gradually, with consumption replacing investment

Ongoing supply-side reforms should boost China’s production efficiency and translate into better earnings

Could see tighter credit policies to mitigate risk from rising debt levels

GDP

(Breakdown of components)

State-owned enterprise reforms

(Return on equity)

Earning revisions

(MSCI China, earnings per share)

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Consumption Investments

Net exports Real GDP

20,9%

10,5%

17,5%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

20

17 Y

TD

Non-SOESOEAll industrial enterprises

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Bloomberg as at

31 January 2018.

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, CEIC, Bloomberg, as

of December 2017.

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not indicative of future performanceThe views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any

way. HSBC Global Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For illustrative purposes only.

Page 46: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

Important information

Page 47: Emerging markets equity outlook - HSBC€¦ · Emerging markets equity outlook Earnings growth Emerging markets equity earnings growth (MSCI Emerging Markets) 2017 saw strong earnings

47

This presentation is distributed in France, Italy, Spain and Sweden by HSBC Global Asset Management (France), in Switzerland by HSBC Global Asset Management (Switzerland) Ltd and is only intended

for professional investors as defined by MIFID. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. All non-authorised reproduction or use of this commentary and analysis will be the

responsibility of the user and will be likely to lead to legal proceedings. This document has no contractual value and is not by any means intended as a solicitation, nor an investment advice for the

purchase or sale of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not lawful. The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Global Asset

Management (France) on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Global Asset Management (France). Consequently, HSBC

Global Asset Management (France) will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. All data from HSBC

Global Asset Management unless otherwise specified. Any third party information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but which we have not independently verified.

Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial

instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and

may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on

an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing

or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-

infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct,

indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages (www.mscibarra.com).

Important information for Luxembourg investors: HSBC entities in Luxembourg are regulated and authorised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF).

Important information for Swiss investors: This document may be distributed in Switzerland only to qualified investors according to Art. 10 para 3, 3bis and 3ter of the Federal Collective Investment

Schemes Act (CISA). The presented fund is authorised for distribution in Switzerland in the meaning of Art. 120 of the Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act. (Potential) investors are kindly asked to

consult the latest issued Key Investor Information Document (KIID), prospectus, articles of incorporation and the (semi-)annual report of the fund which may be obtained free of charge at the head office of

the representative: HSBC Global Asset Management (Switzerland) Ltd., Gartenstrasse 26, P.O. Box, CH-8002 Zurich. Paying agent in Switzerland: HSBC Private Bank (Suisse) SA, Quai des Bergues 9-

17, P.O Box 2888, CH-1211 Genève 1.

HSBC Global Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of HSBC Group. The above document has been approved for distribution/issue by the following entities:

HSBC Global Asset Management (France)

421 345 489 RCS Nanterre. Portfolio management company authorised by the French regulatory authority AMF (no. GP99026) with capital of 8.050.320 euros.

Offices: Immeuble Coeur Défense, 110, esplanade du Général Charles de Gaulle, 92400 Courbevoie - La Défense 4. (Website: www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com).

Postal address: 75419 Paris cedex 08, France.

HSBC Global Asset Management (Switzerland) Limited

Gartenstrasse 26, P.O. Box, CH-8002 Zurich, Switzerland (Website: www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/ch)

Copyright © 2018. HSBC Global Asset Management (France). All rights reserved Copyright © 2018. Non contractual document updated in March 2018. AMFR_EXT_128_2018


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