Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Emerging Markets toFrontier Markets
Paul GoodwinAnalyst,
Cabot China & Emerging Markets [email protected]
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Danger Everywhere You Look
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What Are the Dangers?
• Examples:–Greek liquidity crisis–Egyptian revolution–China’s investor controls– Inflation in Brazil–Bureaucracy in India
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The Risks: China Mobile (CHL)
2004-2007
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The Risks: China Mobile (CHL)
2007-Present
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Emerging Markets Leave China
in the Dust: Jan. 2011–Apr. 2013
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Then It All Changes in May
• PGJ = China• EEM = Emerging Markets
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EM Investing Is a Stock-Picker’s Game
• Phoenix New Media (FENG)– Inc. 2007 in Beijing– Internet, mobile and TV–Market cap: $625 million–Revenue: $184 million–Announced Q2 results Monday:
stock up 12%
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• Revenue sources (Q1 2013)–Value added services = 79% of
revenue•Social Networks—24%•Online Games—55%
–Advertising = 6%–eCommerce = 14%
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Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
• Q1 Earnings Report: May 15–Total revenue up 40.4% y.o.y.–Operating profit up 37.1%
• Q2 Earnings Report: August 14–???
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• Established 1999– Largest eCommerce player in
China–Market cap HKD67 billion ($8.7
billion)–17% owned by Yahoo!– IPO talked about end of 2013
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• Alibaba.com—Global e-commerce• 1688.com—E-commerce for small Chinese
biz• AliExpress—Global consumer marketplace• Taobao.com—C2C shopping destination• Tmall.com—Online brand-name shopping• eTao—Comprehensive shopping search
engine• Alibaba Cloud Computing—Just like Amazon• Alipay—Just like Paypal
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net
Cabot Investors Conference 2013 www.cabot.net