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Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 A New Era Demands New Thinking Summit Reimagined 2019: The Future of Memphis is Now
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019
A New Era Demands New Thinking
Summit Reimagined 2019: The Future of Memphis is Now
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40 years and counting
“Real estate as an asset class has matured. Market participants need to realize this and make the appropriate adjustments.”
40 years of Emerging Trends in Real Estate
3
➢ Global Financial Crisis
➢ Technology
➢ Information Availability
➢ Asset Class Acceptance
➢ Urbanization
➢ REITs
➢ Low Interest Rates
➢ Capital Availability
➢ Securitization
➢ Space Utilization Changes
Over the course of your real estate career, what do you feel has been the most significant event or change to the industry?
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 Online Survey
4
Market sentiment
“Sure it feels like the activity level will moderate, but more like a plateau and not a sharp downhill slide.”
2019 Expected Profitability
5Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 Online Survey
Poor, 1.1%
Fair, 19.3%
Good, 62.8%
Excellent, 16.8%
Abysmal Poor Fair Good Excellent
2018Poor, 0.8%
Fair, 20.4%
Good, 61.8%
Excellent, 17.0%
Abysmal Poor Fair Good Excellent
2019
2019 Expected Profitability
6Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 Online Survey
Poor, 0.8%
Fair, 20.4%
Good, 61.8%
Excellent, 17.0%
Abysmal Poor Fair Good Excellent
MemphisTotal Market
Poor, 3.0%
Fair, 18.2%
Good, 66.7%
Excellent, 12.1%
Abysmal Poor Fair Good Excellent
What word would you use to describe the 2019 real estate market?
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 7
#1
Top 5
#2
#3
#4
#5 Overheated
Evolving
Cautious
Competitive
Plateau
2019 Market Opinion of Current Pricing
8
Does current pricing
indicate a market peak?
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 Online Survey
11.3%
29.1%
33.8%
41.6%
37.8%
36.1%
43.9%
38.8%
88.7%
64.7%
60.6%
48.8%
58.6%
57.9%
51.2%
50.8%
6.3%
5.6%
9.6%
3.6%
6.0%
4.9%
10.4%
Memphis
Industrial
Memphis
Retail
Memphis
Multifamily
Memphis
Office
Over Priced Fairly Priced Under Priced
What inning are we in?
9
25 innings Longest major league game in baseball history. On May 8, 1984 the Chicago White Sox defeated the Milwaukee Brewers, 7 – 6 over the course of 8 hours and 6 minutes.
26 innings Boston Braves and Brooklyn
Dodgers played to a 1-1 tie on May 1, 1920. The game was called
because of darkness after playing only 3 hours and 50 minutes
10
Social Issues
❑We’re all in this together: ESG Investing
❑ Unlocking capacity: Opportunity Zones
“You can say that it feels good to follow responsible practices, but we are seeing more examples of it also enhancing returns.”
We Are All in This Together – ESG Investing
11
The number of U.S. money managers, asset owners and other investment related organizations that have signed onto the Principles for Responsible Investment
Institutional assets invested under environmental, social and governance principles in the U.S
Source of Invested Assets
Other…
Labor Funds1%
Foundations2%
Educational institutions
6%
Corporations32%
Public funds58%374 $12
trillionSource: Pensions & Investments
Unlocking Capacity
12
Waiting for Opportunity zones to come into focus
❑ Sleeper component of the 2017 Tax Act
❑ Potentially stabilize and revitalize targeted neighborhoods via tax incentives
❑ 8,700 census tracts have been identified by each state’s governor
❑ Capital gains taxes can be deferred until 2026 if they are invested in new construction or major rehabilitation of projects in economically depressed areas
❑ If invested via designated opportunity fund capital gains taxes can be reduced by 10% to 100% based on holding period
13
A changing industry
❑ Intensifying transformation
❑ Easing into the future
“Demographic growth is slowing and you can’t deny it will have an impact on the real estate industry. Making the right choices will be key.”
A changing industry
4.4
3.4 3.3 3.3
1.8
2.3
2.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 to2018
2018 to2028
Intensifying Transformation
Annual GDP Growth by Decade (%)
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1.3
1.0
0.9
1.2
0.9
0.70.7
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2010s 2010 -2018
2018 -2028
Easing into the Future
Annual Population Growth by Decade (%)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census Bureau, IHS Markit
Who is getting hired?
(1,007)
515 414 374 483 811 546 1,246
406 1,058
137
995 1,110 1,787
482
1,265 1,168 545 899
1,418
(6,000)
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual Employment Growth (000s)
20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 Plus
15Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Easing into the Future
16Source: BLS
Starting with a very tight
labor market
6,294
7,335
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
# of job openings
Recession
# of unemployed
(000s SA)
17
Markets to watch
❑ 18-hour city 3.0
“The competition for talent makes being in the right market of vital importance.”
Markets to Watch
18Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 Online Survey
Overall Real Estate Prospects
#1 Dallas/Ft. Worth#2 Brooklyn#3 Raleigh/Durham#4 Orlando#5 Nashville#6 Austin#7 Boston#8 Denver#9 Charlotte#10 Tampa/St. Petersburg
#8
#1
#6 #4#10
#5 #3#9
#7
#2
2019 Market Outlook Scoring
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Memphis, TN
Knoxville, TN
Nashville, TN
= Mean Score
-1 Stdev =Trend toward less differentiation between markets continues
57 markets within +/- 1 Stdev of the meanSource: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 Online Survey
Affordability a key consideration in 2019
91.4
100.0 102.5 103.9
119.6
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Memphis US Top 20Markets
All Markets GatewayCities
Cost of doing Business Index
180.1
151.7 143.2
134.69
84.39
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
Memphis US All Markets Top 20Markets
GatewayCities
Housing Affordability
20Source: Moody's Analytics, NAR
Higher = more affordable
18-Hour Cities 3.0
21Source: Census Bureau
5,028,431
4,600,000
4,650,000
4,700,000
4,750,000
4,800,000
4,850,000
4,900,000
4,950,000
5,000,000
5,050,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Projected population turning 30 by year, joining the 35 million already there
Millennials turning 30 may be more likely to move to the suburbs
18-Hour Cities 3.0
22Source: Census Bureau
35% of interregional
millennial migration is to
the south region compared to:
West – 27.2%Midwest - 20.3%
Northeast – 17.5%
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Dealing with disruption
❑ Digital Transformation❑ Retail Transforms to a new Equilibrium❑Myth of Free Delivery❑ Amenities Gone Wild
“Someday, the most valuable component of an office building may be the data it generates.”
Accelerating Digital Transformation
•41%• Annual increase in
global real estate tech investment over the past 4
years
Source: CB Insights24
$1.3
$2.5
$2.9
$3.4
$5.2
208
454
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Real Estate Tech Financing
Disclosed funding ($Billion USD) Deals
Unlocking the power of Proptech
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 25
Fintech
Real Estate
FintechProptech
Contech Smart Real
Estate
Collaborative Economy
Get Smart: Artificial Intelligence + Personal Intelligence
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• Tax preparation software• Watson for legal and medical uses• IoT warehousing programs
Intellectualtasks
• Online shopping agents• Restaurant ordering kiosks• IVR call centers
Customerservice
• Grocery store scanners• ATMs• Automated parking garages
Physical tasks
Odds are much greater that AI will replace tasks you currently do rather than replace you!
The promise is that AI will enhance PI by freeing workers to focus on more value add tasks
Real Estate Transforming to a new Equilibrium
•70%•The percent of survey respondents who felt
technology would have no impact on the demand for
retail space.
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2004 Online Survey27
What does disruption look like ?
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 28
Their Biggest issues – people didn’t rewind these
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 29
Taking their eye off the ball
Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 30
The Myth of “Free Delivery”
31Source: CSCMP
Estimated last mile cost per package in a urban, high-
density, e-commerce
route
An average of 30% of online
purchases will be returned
$2.10
$0.20 $0.20 $0.40
$2.90
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Average value of an online
purchase $82
The Myth of “Free Delivery”
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More shoppers opting for in store pick up
Retail format Intentions
Physical stores 88%
Online from retailers with stores 57%
Ship to home/office 42%
Pick up in store 40%
Pure online retailers 60%
Amazon 58%
All others 16%
Other sources 17%
Source: ICSC 33
86% of “click-and-collect” shoppers made additional purchases when picking up their order
Amenities Gone Wild
•81%• Of employers feel
that the proper amenities are one of the top 3 things they can offer their
employees
Source: CBRE, 2018 Occupier Survey34
19%
23%
25%
31%
31%
32%
36%
39%
63%
66%
71%
74%
Wellness Services
Healthy Snacks
Hospitality Services
Game Room
Fitness Classes
Dry Cleaning
On-Site Health Care
Green Space
Custom Coffee
Fitness Facilities
Showers
Full-Service Cafeteria
Amenities Provided
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Takeaways
• Market could be hitting a plateau
• Slower growth increasesimportance of decisions
• Technology will have a bigger impact going forward
“Real estate as an asset class has matured. Market participants need to realize this and make the appropriate adjustments.”
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Contact us
•www.pwc.com
Andy WarrenDirector, Real Estate Research515 314 [email protected]
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