84
Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2019 Creating an impact Per Andersen Partner, FS [email protected] 3945 3411 Jesper Wiinholt Partner, Real Estate [email protected] 3945 3311
Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2019
Creating an impact
Per Andersen
Partner, FS
3945 3411
Jesper Wiinholt
Partner, Real Estate
3945 3311
Agenda
Velkommen
Key Points fra rapporten
Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2019
Retail branchen
Benstræk
Sector Trends
Cyber security
Afslutning og tak for i dag
2PwC
At a glance
3PwC
“Right across Europe, people are moving into the larger cities. We’ve got an urbanisation trend and a scenario where not enough housing has been built over the last 25 years.”
Director, pan-European investment manager
“Some investors are still looking at real estate in
Europe as capital preservation. They are not
looking for outsize returns, but security.”
Director, pan-European investment bank
PwC
Klart billede af, at
branchens
forventninger er for
nedadgående i
forhold til tidligereBusiness prospects in 2019
6
November 2018
PwC
Bred enighed om, at inflation, lange samt korte renter forventes at stige moderat
Interest rates and inflation in 2019
7
November 2018
PwC
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet,
consectetuer adipiscing elit,
nonummy nibh euismod.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet,
consectetuer adipiscing elit,
nonummy nibh euismod.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet,
consectetuer adipiscing elit,
nonummy nibh euismod.
Hvilket har en effekt på de forventede afkast
8
Returns targeted in 2019
compared to previous year
Time horizon for holding
investments
Returns targeted in 2019
8
November 2018
PwC
PwC
Mere end 70% mener, at
UK’s mulighed for at
tiltrække udenlandsk talent
vil falde som følge af Brexit.
Og lige så mange mener, at
jobs tabes til EU.
Og det har en naturlig effekt
på forventningerne til det
engelske
ejendomsmarked…….
Brexit får effekt
9
Business impact of Brexit in 2019
Impact of Brexit on real estate in 2019
Cyber security er ny og rykker op på en 3. plads over væsentlige forhold
10
Issues impacting
business in 2019 10
November 2018
PwC
“Considering the environmental impact of investments is absolutely becoming important. The more institutional the money, the greater the pressure on these kinds of issues. In five years’ time, the big listed property companies will have no non-environmentally labelled real estate at all. Secondary real estate is going to have a much more difficult time.”
11
PwC
Social issues in 2019 11
November 2018
PwC
PwC
Kortere, mere fleksible
lejevilkår er krav fra
brugere.
Teknologi, digitalisering
og miljø opfattes som en
integreret del af fast
ejendom.
De nye regnskabsregler
får også betydning!
12
Factors influencing real estate
strategies over the next 3-5 yearsFleksibilitet, teknologi og miljø vægter tungt.
12
November 2018
PwC
De “bløde” værdier fylder stadig mere:● Infrastruktur● Regulatoriske forhold● Digitalisering● Talent
Er alle oppe i top-10 målt på væsentlighed.
13
Importance when
selecting a city for
investment or
development
Der forventes (stadig) fornuftig tilgang af såvel egen- som fremmedkapital
Availability of equity and debt in 2019
PwC
PwC
Hvor kommer pengene fra?
Stadig forventninger om tilgang af kapital
Undersøgelsen viser dog en klar stigning i asiatiske investeringer, mens amerikanske
investeringer forventes at stagnere.
15
Cross-border capital into European
real estate in 2019
15
November 2018
PwC
PwC
Fra 2011 til 2016 er rente niveuaet
faldet mere end afkastkravet.
Tegn på at denne margin formindskes,
men stadig væsentlig mere luft end før
finanskrisen.
Hvornår stiger renterne for alvor?
Stadig stort spread mellem afkast og underliggende rente
Eurozone property yields and interest
rates, 2009–2018
16
November 2018
PwC
Af et marked på
EUR 285 fylder UK
og Tyskland
næsten halvdelen.
De nordiske lande i
alt udgør ca. 10%
af markedet.
Danmark fylder ikkeså meget
Real estate investment in European
countries Q4 2017–Q3 2018 (€ bn)
17
November 2018
PwC
Og London er stadig det langt største marked
18
Europe’s 10 most active markets, Q4
2017–Q3 2018 (bn)
PwC
PwC
Lissabon er årets højdespringer
Men markedet er et af de
mindste i Europa
Tyskland som sædvanlig stærk
placeret
Og København rykker ud af top-ti
men ligger stadig godt placeret.
19
Overall
prospects,
2019
PwC
For København forventes
stadig en stigning i såvel
lejeniveauer som
værditilvækst
Change expected
in rents and
capital values in
2019
20
November 2018
LisbonThere is such a diversity of capital: of origin, of risk profile, of asset classes targeted
21
November 2018
PwC
Copenhagen is positioning itself incredibly well vis-a-vis social trends like mixed use and mobility
22
November 2018
PwC
USA?
i
sker der
Hvad1
PwC
...og trenden er fortsat siden
26
Kilde: Coresigth Research
Gennem flere år har
man sagt, at der er
mindst
25%
for mange
kvadratmeter i USANovember 2018
PwC
...nogle indgiver også Chapter 11 (status i uge 42)
27
November 2018
Age
Amazon
The2
PwC
Amazon is the fastest company ever to reach USD 100 billion in annual sales
30
Amazon’s total revenue
10 years ago, Amazon was only a
USD 15 billion company
+31%
(USD billion) MRFY MRFY+3E
1. Walmart USD 500 USD 540
2. CVS Health USD 185 USD 214
3. Amazon USD 178 USD 341
4. Costco USD 129 USD 159
5. Kroger USD 123 USD 132
Largest US retailers, by revenue
As of April 3, 2018 per CapIQ
Source: PwC analysis, Amazon, CapIQ
November 2018
PwC
Amazon has more than 100 million Prime members globally and is raising membership fees
31
Source: Amazon, Various media outlets, Esquire.com
64%: US households
with Amazon Prime
November 2018
PwC
Amazon dominates online in the US
32
4Q17
Share of retail time spent
vs spending by platform
Amount of time US consumers spent on websites/apps of leading online
retailers in December 2017 (billion minutes)
Source: PwC analysis, comScore, statista
40%
gap
November 2018
PwC
Amazon leads R&D spending
33
Top US companies for R&D spending (USD billion)
Source: Recode.net
November 2018
PwC
Amazon is driving consumer behaviors and purchasing decisions
Four years ago the Echo and Alexa were
introduced
Amazon owns 71% of the share of in-home
voice devices
Amazon’s Alexa has also been incorporated
into non-Amazon products such as Sonos One
Source: PwC analysis, Amazon, Esquire.com
ECHO SPOT
ECHOBUTTON
ECHO CONNECTECHO 2.0
ECHOPLUS
ECHO SHOW
ECHO LOOK
Fire Tablets
Fire TV
34
November 2018
PwC
Amazon’s private label online market share
Source: KPCP Internet Trends 2017, Statista, 1010 Data (Note data collected from 9/15-9/16)
Online battery market share Online baby wipes market share
35
November 2018
PwC
And despite its roots, Amazon also seeks to redefine bricks and mortar retail
36
November 2018
Source: PwC analysis
PwC
Amazon Go
Co-Working: Emerging Trends 201937
November 2018
tendenser
Andre3
PwC
Experience is everything
40
Pricing
Loyalty
Fulfillment
Assortment
Platforms
Innovation
Consumer
centricity
Source: PwC analysis, PwC The new retail ecosystem: from disrupted to disruptor 2017, PwC Experience is everything 2018
Companies are implementing
strategies to attract consumers
Upskill talent
Technology as an enabler
Customers want seamless,
fast, and memorable
moments
Speed
Convenience
Consistency
Friendly service
Knowledgeable help
Human touch
24/7
November 2018
PwC
Successful companies understand the imperative to create unique, brand-defining environments
42
Source: PwC analysis, various company websites
Less focus on sales per
square foot and more on
experience or excitement
per square foot
Flagship stores as
experience hubs
IoT, AI and mixed realties
(augmented and virtual
reality) drive personalised
and curated experiences
November 2018
PwC 43
“Offline retail’s greatest advantage
isn’t being a warehouse for
inventory with a storefront tacked
on, but to instead serve as a way to
bring people together in one space –
a space that isn’t necessarily
confined to the four walls of a
traditional brick-and-mortar store.”
– Zabrina Hossain,
Product Manager at Shopify
Source: PwC analysis, Ashley Stewart, Shopify, various media outlets
November 2018
PwC
PwC
It’s just a matter of time until “anticipatory shipping” becomes a reality …
Source: www.gocomics.com/fminus (Tony Carrillo, creator of F Minus)
Danmark?
med
så
Hvad4
PwC
Markedet
• Mange butikker har gode nøgletal og tror på fremtiden.
• Over en kam vil vinderne være de virksomheder, som er
omstillingsparate, og som kan integrere de nye shoppingmønstre i deres
kerneforretning.
• Amerikansk vs. europæisk marked. Forholdet mellem etageareal pr.
indbygger er differentieret.
• Beliggenhed, beliggenhed, beliggenhed.
Gode råd og (danske) trends
47
November 2018
PwC
Gode råd og (danske) trends
48
November 2018
Gågader● De “stærke” byer
● Restauration og oplevelser
● Flight to quality.
Centre● Oplevelsen forudsættes (investeringer)
● Showroom
● Blandet handel (fysisk salg og nethandel).
Box-butikker● Bliver showroom og last mile og
byttecentral
● Koncentration tæller positivt
● Beliggenhed endnu mere central.
Dagligvarer● Nethandel udbredes blandt etablerede
aktører
● Areal (overskudskapacitet) tilpasses.
PwC
Kan digitale produkter blive lige lovlig smarte?
49
November 2018
Office trends
Nye forventninger og krav til kommercielle ejendommev/ Kim Søberg [email protected]
Tlf. 3945 3425
PwC
One could argue that the office sector is thriving on major change – in this case, the rapid rise of flexible offices and co-working.
- Emerging Trends 2019
November 2018
51
PwCPwC
Opnår øget investor interesse
52
November 2018
“If flexible offices grow
from 1 percent to 20
percent or more of that
market, as the same
broker estimates, that is
USD 120 billion of
revenue up for grabs.
PWC EMERGING TRENDS REAL ESTATE EUROPE
2018
PwC
• Ny lejersammensætning afleder nye krav til fleksibilitet
(bindinger), service, faciliteter og dynamik
• Koncepter inkluderer tillægsydelser som supplement til
kontoretagemeter
• Arbitrage på udlejning. Måske mere direkte ejerskab på
vej?
• Tilbud kan være selvstændige business cases eller øge den
underliggende indtjening i kontorudlejning
Service og co-working
54
November 2018
PwC
The European rollout has been incredibly strong. London in particular is probably the most competitive market for co-working globally
- Artie Minson, WeWork CFO
November 2018
55
PwC
Coworking sektorens
fremtidsperspektiver i
Emerging Trends 2019
Nr. 4 71% 26%
Perspektiver for sektor
Er enige eller meget enige i,
at lejere er villige til at betale
mere for kortere
lejekontrakter og øget
fleksibilitet
Af de adspurgte
respondenter på tværs af
Europa overvejer at
investere i co-working i 2019
56
November 2018
PwC
Co-working spaces er stadig meget nyt i København, og derfor er vækstpotentialet ekstremt stort… Derfor kigger vi allerede nu på adskillige andre potentielle locations i København.
- Keith Silverang, Adm. Direktør Tecnopolis
November 2018
57
PwC 58
Danmark adskiller sig fra vores
traditionelt sammenlignelige
markeder, herunder antallet af små
og mellemstore start-ups. Netop
denne gruppe har taget co-working
til sig i stor stil!!
Men markedet modnes, og
efterspørgslen tegner et klart billede
af, at service er vejen frem.
November 2018
PwC
PwC
“Every major city in Europe has the same issue: lack of affordable housing, lack of social housing and lack of senior care …the problem is just getting worse and worse,” says a partner with a pan-European private equity firm.
November 2018
60
PwC
Mest attraktive investeringer i Europa
61
November 2018
OBS. Co-living fremgår ikke af 2018
ranglisten, da det er en samling af
flere kategorier
PwC
Senior Housing i bl.a. USA og Canada er mindre konjunkturfølsomme
62
November 2018
Kapitalfondsafkast for senior housing har oversteget andre ejendomsinvesteringer de sidste ti år.
Investeringer giver diversifikation og har vist sig at være mindre konjunkturfølsomme under den
globale finanskrise.
Kilde: Emerging Trends in Real Estate® - The United States and Canada 2019
PwC
danskere over 55 år vil gernebo i et seniorbofællesskabmed andre aktive seniorer nu
80.000 120.000 7.000
Hvor stort er seniorboligpotentialet i Danmark?
er det forventede tal i 2044 er det tilgængelige antal boliger i seniorbofællesskaber i Danmark lige nu.
Kilde: Undersøgelse fra 2017 lavet af Det Nationale Forskningscenter for Velfærd (SFI) bestilt af Realdania.
63
November 2018
PwC
Fokus på minimering af
risici
64
November 2018
PwC
PwC
Hvad er seniorboliger? – Erfaring fra Australien
Alder
50 60 70 80”Empty Nesters” ”Nye pensionister” ”Seniorer” Plejekrævende ældre
Traditionelle boliger (Unge seniorer)Seniorboliger (Servicerede
fællesskaber)Plejehjem
Livsstilsfokus
Kernemarked for servicerede fællesskaber
Kernemarked for plejeboliger
Tilbage til storbylivsstilen
Bo tæt på familie/venner med mulighed for pleje
Assistance og pleje
Kilde: Retirement Village Association og PwC Analyse
65
November 2018
PwC
Serviceydelser i tværgående fællesskaber (eksempler)
Serviceniveauet afhænger af segment (aldersgruppe),målgruppe (low, medium, high end) og koncept.
…Her?
…eller her?
…De ledende aktører vil være her
snart!
Pleje
▪ Ældrepleje (plejecenter)
▪ Demensafsnit
▪ OvervågningKomfortservices
▪ Wellness
▪ Concierge
▪ Personlige trænere
▪ Huslæge
▪ Eventfunktion og
uddannelsesmuligheder
▪ Hjemmesygeplejerske ydelser
▪ Tilføjelse af visiterede ydelser
▪ Ydelser ifm. let demens
▪ Gæsteservice
▪ Delebil
Nærmiljø-services
▪ Fitness
▪ Hotelservices
▪ Restauranter
▪ Sport
▪ Voksen- /Gerontologiske legepladser
Shared services
▪ Madudbringning (á la Retnemt)
▪ Rengøring (Happy Helper-koncept)
▪ Tøjvask (Washa-koncept)
▪ Privat læge (MedConnect)
Standard
▪ Administration af ejendom
▪ Almindelig drift af ejendom
▪ Vedligehold af bygning(er)
66
November 2018
PwC
PwC
Vil du vide mere om seniorboliger og servicerede fællesskaber?
67
Date
PwC
More than half of the respondents say they are considering investing in “niche” sectors, principally because of demographic drivers
69
November 2018
PwC
Key performance indicators
for Europe2.9 billion
nights spent
685 millioninternational arrivals
EUR 23 billionhotel transaction volume
1,000hotels
126,000rooms
Pipeline
70
November 2018
PwC
Key performance indicators
for Copenhagen16,800
rooms
Pipeline
+8 millionNights spent
8,500rooms
71
November 2018
PwC
Global trends
Demographic and
social change
Shift in global
economic power
Technological
breakthrough
72
November 2018
PwC
8% 10% 21%
Proportion of world population aged 60+ years
Demographic and social change
1950 2000 2050
In 2055, there will be
10 billion people worldwide,
of which 30% will be 60+ years
73
November 2018
PwC
International tourist arrivals
1980 2010 2030
Europe Africa Middle East Americas Asia & the Pacific
Shift in global economic power
Increased traffic from Asia to Europe
November 2018
74PwC
PwC
Technological breakthrough
World population and connected devices
0.08
2003
1.84
2010
3.47
2015
6.58
• Blockchain
• 3D printing
• Machine learning
• Autonomous vehicles
• Augmented and virtual reality
• Quantum computing
• Proptech
2020
November 2018
75
November 2018
PwC
PwC – The security overview
77
Our team helps organisations understand dynamic cyber challenges, adapt and respond to risks
inherent to their business ecosystem and prioritise and protect the most valuable assets fundamental
to their business strategy.
• “PwC has very strong global
delivery capabilities, and the firm
offers solid, comprehensive
services with the ability to address
almost all of the security and risk
challenges that clients will face”2
• Focussed on consulting, solution
implementation, incident
response and forensic
investigation
• Knowledge and experience
across key industries and sectors
• Largest professional security
consulting provider as ranked by
Gartner1
• Technical security and forensics
labs located in 40 countries
• Designed to conduct
assessments, design and test
security solutions and conduct
cyber forensic analyses and
investigations
.
• Extensive library of templates,
tools and accelerators
• Cyber threat intelligence fusion
and big data analysis platforms
to process data related to cyber
threats and incidents
• Advanced degrees and certifications, including
• Certified Information System Security
Professional (CISSP)
• Encase Certified Examiner (EnCE)
• Certified Information Security Manager (CISM)
• Certified Ethical Hacker (CEH)
• Identity Management Specialisation
• Former federal and international law
enforcement and intelligence officers
• Security clearances that allow for classified
discussions that often stem from cyber-related
incidents
• We provide pragmatic insight and a balanced
view of how to prioritise investments in people,
processes and technology solutions needed to
address the cyber security challenge
Knowledge & Experience3,200+ professionals
‘Leader’ ranking by Forrester
Research
60+ labs
Proprietarytools and methods
1Gartner: Competitive Landscape: Professional Security Consulting Services, Worldwide, 20132The Forrester Wave: Information Security and Risk Consulting Services, Q1 2013, Forrester Research, Ed Ferrara and Andrew Rose, February 1,
2013
BeforeCyber assessment
Security architecture
Identity management
CiSO as a service
UnderIncident response
Threat intel
Infrastructure troubleshooting
BI - log
AftereForensics
Malware analysis
November 2018
PwC
PwC Cyber Survey
78
We are getting more concerned and are feeling the impact
64%
37%
of enterprises have been
a target of cyber crime in
the past 12 months
of the enterprises that have been
a target of cyber crime not only
lost money as a result of the
incidents, their brands were also
damaged, they lost clients and/or
critical systems were
inaccessible
74%
are more concerned
about the cyber threat
now than they were 12
months ago
58% believe cyber crime is the biggest
business challenge (CxO Survey 2018)
November 2018
PwC
Cyber Survey 2017 – Attacks in DenmarkOn average, cyber incidents cost DKK 900,000
79
GDPR –
future
incidents
52%58%
77%
of respondents have experienced CEO fraud
of respondents have been a target of ransomware attacks
of respondents have been a target of phishing attacks
Phishing
Ransomware
CEO fraud
November 2018
PwC
Threat trend – Are we getting any better?
80
99.9% of the
exploited vulnerabilities (in 2014) had been identified for more than a year, some of them as far back as 1999.
(Source: Verizon DBIR 2015)
November 2018
PwC
• There is no legislation requiring real estate businesses to implement information security programmes to protect information and systems, which means you may fall behind other sectors with regulations.
• Cyber concerns have raised to more than 50% among real estate leaders.
• Business e-mail compromise (BEC) – they appear to be from escrow agents or constructors, wanting money for work done. Major, rising threat. The PwC Denmark cyber survey has ”CEO fraud” as a top 3 attack.
• Ransomware – it takes you down
• GDPR – personal data
• Cloud vendors – the new risk
Cyber risk in real estate
81
November 2018
PwC
The security perspective is changing
82
November 2018
ProtectAccess control
Redteaming
Maintenance
Protective technology
ISO 2700x/NIST
strategy
DetectSIEM
Intrusion detection
Incident response
Threat intel
RespondBCM
Incident response
Communication
Improvements
Forensics
PwC
GDPR awareness
Cyber awareness
PwC digital awareness training – a strong solution
Game of Threats
Questions?
83
November 2018
pwc.com
Tak for jeres tid
Disclaimer: Medmindre det er udtrykkeligt angivet i notatet eller med vores tidligere skriftlige accept, må dette notat, eller dele af det, hverken distribueres til andre, blive henvist til eller citeret, helt eller delvist, i prospekter, offentliggjorte dokumenter,
lånedokumentation, andre aftaler eller dokumenter.
De fremsendte oplysninger er kun tiltænkt personen eller enheden, de er fremsendt til, og indeholder personligt og/eller fortroligt materiale. Enhver gennemgang, videresending, udbredelse, anden brug af eller nogen handling foretaget i tillid til disse
oplysninger af andre personer eller enheder end den tiltænkte modtager er ulovlig. Hvis De ved en fejl har modtaget dette, bedes De venligst kontakte afsenderen og slette materialet fra computeren.
Som erfaren investor og bruger af professionelle ydelser forstår I karakteren af ydelserne og begrænsningerne ved dem. Vi har aftalt, at vi ikke afgiver nogen erklæring eller garanti af nogen art (udtrykkeligt eller stiltiende) vedrørende nøjagtigheden
og fuldstændigheden af indholdet af nærværende uddrag af et notat, og, i det omfang loven tillader, accepterer eller påtager PricewaterhouseCoopers Statsautoriseret Revisionspartnerselskab, dets aktionærer, medarbejdere og repræsentanter sig
ikke nogen forpligtelse, ansvar eller agtpågivenhedspligt for eventuelle konsekvenser, som følger af, at du eller andre handler eller undlader at handle i tillid til de oplysninger, der findes i dette notat, eller for eventuelle beslutninger truffet på baggrund
heraf.
© 2018 PricewaterhouseCoopers Statsautoriseret Revisionspartnerselskab. Alle rettigheder forbeholdes. I dette dokument refererer “PwC” til PricewaterhouseCoopers Statsautoriseret Revisionspartnerselskab, som er et medlemsfirma af
PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, hvor hver enkelt virksomhed er en særskilt juridisk enhed.
