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  • Emerging Trends in Real Estate®

    United States and Canada 2016

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  • Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016

    A publication from:

    2016_EmergTrends US_C1_4_F.indd 4 9/16/15 8:10 PM

  • iEmerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016

    Contents 2 Chapter 1 Coordinating Offense and Defense in 2016 5 18-Hour Cities 2.0 6 Next Stop: the Suburbs . . . What Is a Suburb? 9 Offices: Barometer of Change 10 A Housing Option for Everyone 12 Parking for Change 13 Climate Change and Real Estate 15 Infrastructure: Network It! Brand It! 16 Food Is Getting Bigger and Closer 16 Consolidation Breeds Specialization 17 We Raised the Capital; Now, What Do We Do with It? 18 Return of the Human Touch 19 Issues to Watch 20 Expected Best Bets for 2016

    22 Chapter 2 Capital Markets 23 The Debt Sector 28 The Equity Sector 35 Summing It Up

    36 Chapter 3 Markets to Watch 36 2016 Market Rankings 38 Market Trends 39 The Top 20 Markets 49 Perspectives on Regions

    60 Chapter 4 Property Type Outlook 61 Industrial 64 Apartments 67 Office 70 Hotels 71 Retail 75 Housing

    77 Chapter 5 Emerging Trends in Canada: Changing Opportunities 78 Emerging Trends in Canadian Real Estate 85 Markets to Watch in 2016 90 Property Type Outlook 94 Expected Best Bets for 2016

    95 Interviewees

    Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016

  • ii Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016

    Editorial Leadership Team Adam Boutros* Aki Dellaportas Alex Tanchez* Alexander P. Stimpfl Allen Baker* Amy Brohman* Amy E. Olson Andrew Alperstein Andrew Paterson* Andrew Popert* Andrew Stansfield Annie Labbé* Brian J. O’Donnell Brian T. Nerney Brion L. Sharpe Bud Thomas Carlo Bruno Charles P. Alford Chase C. Evans Chris Potter* Chris Vangou* Christina Howton* Christine Lattanzio Christopher A. Mill Christopher L. Nicholaou Constance Chow* Courtney S. McNeil Dan Crowley Daniel J. O’Neill Daniel D’Archivio* David Baldwin David Baranick David Khan* David M. Voss David Seaman David Yee* Deborah Dumoulin* Dominique Fortier* Donald Flinn* Doug Purdie* Douglas B. Struckman Dwayne MacKay* Edward Sheeran Eli Rabin Elliot Kung Emily Pillars Eric Andrew* Eric St-Amour* Ernest Hudson* Eugene Chan Frank Magliocco* Fred Cassano* Gabrielle Mendiola* Haley M. Anderson Heather M. Lashway Howard Ng* Howard Quon* Ian Gunn* Isabelle Morgan Jackie Kelly Jacqueline Kinneary Jaime D. Phillips James Oswald Janaki Sekaran Janice McDonald* Janice Zaloudek Jasen Kwong* Jeff Kiley Jill Lising* John Gottfried John Paul Pressey* Joseph H. Schechter Joseph R. Fierro Joshua Hookkee

    Julia Powell Kelly Nobis Kelsey Edelen Kristen Conner Kristen D. Naughton Kristianne M. Marchart LaRon E. York Laura Daniels* Lawrence A. Goodfield Leah Waldrum Leandra M. Charsky Lisa Guerrero Lona Mathis Lori-Ann Beausoleil* Mark Williams Martin J. Schreiber Martina Scheuer Marvin A. Thomas Mary Wilson-Smith* Mathilde C. Hauswirth Matthew Berkowitz Maxime Lessard* Meghan O’Brien Michael Anthony Michael Shields* Michael T. Grillo Mike Herman Miriam Gurza* Nadia King* Nadja Ibrahim* Naveli Thomas* Neal P. Kopec Nicholas Mitchell Nick Ethier* Nicole M. Stroud Noah Weichselbaum Oliver Reichel Philippe Thieren* Rajen Shah* Rajveer Hundal* Renee Sarria Richard Fournier Rick Barnay* Rob Christmas* Rob Sciaudone Ron Bidulka* Ron Walsh* Rosanna Musto* Ross Sinclair* Ryan Dumais Ryan Thomas* Sean Hiebert* Seth E. Kemper Shannon M. Comolli Shareen Yew Stephan Gianoplus Stephen W. Crisafulli Steve Tyler Steven Weisenberger Susan M. Smith Tim Bodner Timothy C. Conlon Tracy L. Howard Victoria M. Music Warren Marr Wendi Pope* Wendy J. Wendeborn Wesley Mark* William Croteau William Hux William Keating Yvens Faustin

    * Canada-based.

    PwC Advisers and Contributing ResearchersEmerging Trends Chairs Mitchell M. Roschelle, PwC Kathleen B. Carey, Urban Land Institute

    Principal Advisers and Contributing Authors Andrew Warren, PwC Anita Kramer, Urban Land Institute

    Author Hugh F. Kelly

    Senior Advisers Christopher J. Potter, PwC, Canada Miriam Gurza, PwC, Canada Frank Magliocco, PwC, Canada

    ULI Contributing Researchers Sarene Marshall Maureen McAvey Dean Schwanke Stockton Williams

    ULI Editorial and Production Staff James A. Mulligan, Senior Editor David James Rose, Managing Editor/Manuscript Editor Betsy Van Buskirk, Creative Director Anne Morgan, Cover Design Deanna Pineda, Muse Advertising Design, Designer Craig Chapman, Senior Director of Publishing Operations Marc Andrew Curtin, Project Assistant Rebecca Lassman, Project Intern

    Emerging Trends in Real Estate® is a trademark of PwC and is regis- tered in the United States and other countries. All rights reserved.

    PwC US helps organizations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a member of the PwC network of firms, which has firms in 157 countries with more than 195,000 people. We’re committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax, and advisory services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com/US.

    © 2015 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the U.S. member firm or one of its subsidiaries or affiliates, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www. pwc.com/structure for further details.

    © September 2015 by PwC and the Urban Land Institute.

    Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any infor- mation storage and retrieval system, without written permission of the publisher.

    Recommended bibliographic listing:

    PwC and the Urban Land Institute: Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016. Washington, D.C.: PwC and the Urban Land Institute, 2015.

    ISBN: 978-0-87420-366-0

  • 1Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016

    Notice to Readers Emerging Trends in Real Estate® is a trends and forecast publication now in its 37th edition, and is one of the most highly regarded and widely read forecast reports in the real estate industry. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016, undertaken jointly by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, provides an outlook on real estate investment and devel- opment trends, real estate finance and capital markets, property sectors, metropolitan areas, and other real estate issues throughout the United States and Canada.

    Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016 reflects the views of individuals who completed surveys or were interviewed as a part of the research process for this report. The views expressed herein, including all comments appearing in quotes, are obtained exclusively from these surveys and interviews and do not express the opinions of either PwC or ULI. Interviewees and survey participants represent a wide range of industry experts, including investors, fund managers, developers, property compa- nies, lenders, brokers, advisers, and consultants. ULI and PwC researchers personally interviewed 404 individuals and survey responses were received from 1,465 individu- als, whose company affiliations are broken down below.

    Private property owner or developer 34.3%

    Real estate services firm 26.5%

    Institutional/equity investor or investment manager 11.5%

    Bank, lender, or securitized lender 7.4%

    Real estate brokerage 6.5%

    Homebuilder or residential land developer 5.5%

    Equity REIT or publicly listed real estate property company 3.1%

    Other entity 2.6%

    Private REIT or nontraded real estate property company 2.1%

    Mortgage REIT or real estate debt investor 0.4%

    Throughout the publication, the views of interviewees and/or survey respondents have been presented as direct quotations from the participant without attribution to any particular participant. A list of the interview participants in this year’s study who chose to be identified appears at the end of this report, but it should be noted that all interviewees are given the option to remain anonymous regarding their participation. In several cases, quotes contained herein were obtained from interviewees who are not listed. Readers are cautioned not to attempt to attribute any quote to a specific individual or company.

    To all who helped, the Urban Land Institute and PwC extend sincere thanks for sharing valuable time and expertise. Without the involvement of these many individuals, this report would not have been possible.

  • 2 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016

  • 3Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2016

    Chapter 1: Coordinating Offense and Defense in 2016

    Every major college and NFL football team sees its game plan shaped by its offensive and defensive coordinators, working in concert with the head coach. The coordinators are expected to have both technical and strategic skills, the ability to work under pressure, and the capacity to adjust to rapidly changing conditions.

    For the offense, the coordinator is charged with marshalling the team’s resources to maximize opportunities and to translate them into points on the road to victory. For the defense, the coordinator is constantly assessing risks, both before and dur- ing the game, and countering them. In limiting the competition’s advantages, the defensive coordinator seeks to put his team in the best position on the field by managing adversity and,

    as much as possible, turning an oppo

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