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Emerging trends nscec

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  • 1. Emerging TrendsImpacting Higher EducationPresented by Dr. Jim Black, President & CEO of SEM Works

2. Agenda Demographic shifts Tomorrows Students Emerging Trends 3. graphic ShiftsDemo 4. Is Demography Destiny? 5. impact on the year-to-year especially to improve the rigor of the standard high Is DemographyRegion Figure 4.1. Births by Destiny? 1.6 1.4South 1.2West 1.0Millions.8 Midwest Northeast.6.4.20 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Figure 4.2. Percent Change in Births Between 1994 and 2004by Region and Race/Ethnicity 6. Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Region2001-02 2006-072019-201200 900 600 300NortheastMidwest South 0 WestSource: WICHE 7. Summ Figure 2.22. Percent Change in Public andNation Nonpublic High School Graduates by State,indicat2004-05 to 2014-15of highwill riscontinbegandecadethe nuwill dipbeforeagainof thethe cengeograas indiface veover th -10% or less -5% to -9.99%terms -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10%gradua 10.01% to 20%from p Greater than 20%high scSource: WICHE Figureillustraregionwide, with several exceptions. Louisiana is the statesmost obvious one, though the decline in graduates and the medium term. Figure 2.21 s 8. critical looktructureation ine needs Actual and Projected High SchoolgingGraduates by Race/Ethnicity by State Figure 3.22. Numerical Change Between 2005um and 2015 in American Indian/Alaska Nativemographic Public High School Graduates by State ated ine than innce, theal school graduates is heavieready have spanic ough evenarably little ng withs will seerelative tudent refore, this0 or less a series of 1 to 100 101 to 250ended to Greater than 250 ing racial/on ofort of high Source: WICHE 9. 75.01% to 90% Greater than 90% its regions, and mActual and Projected High Schoolits states are radichanging the rac Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State ethnic compositistudent body thaschools will be sethe years to comFigure 3.34. Numerical Change Between 2005school graduatin and 2015 in White non-Hispanic are diversifying aPublic High School Graduates by State rapidly. Althoughhigh school gradon to college andcollege studentshigh school gradsuch diversificatipressure on manof postsecondaryto adapt.States and instituhave to considerensure that the cbeing offered issensitive and res -10,000 or lessGiven historical p -9,999 to -2,500 -2,499 to 0of academic sup Greater than 0 preparation, acafinancial aid advilikely see more stwith larger deficSource: WICHE learning and few 10. graduates. Figure 3.32 shows the rates non-Hispanic graduates in California in 2014-15 are Actual and Projected High Schoolowth is projected to occur. Hispanic s will grow especially rapidly in all the projected to number almost 40,000 less than they did in 2004-05, and the decline will exceed 10,000 in Illinois, hare Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State h, as well as in several Midwest states.Pennsylvania, New York, and Texas. ates Figure 3.31. Numerical Change Between da still wth 2005 and 2015 in Hispanic Public High Schooldents due Graduates by Stateate of nd several tes, suchArizona, mbination and a fastugh not as nics fornia, ico, andHispanic sed 0 or less ose 1 to 5,000public 5,001 to 20,000 Greater than 20,00005 reover,states,hern Source: WICHEthe enerallyting 11. Greater than 10%Carolina) will seActual and Projected High SchoolDrops will alsothe southern pa Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State England, as weYork and Califomost of the staFigure 3.28. Numerical Change Between 2005country can expand 2015 in Black non-Hispanicincreases in thePublic High School Graduates by State of Black non-Hgraduates fromschools by 201States showingaverage annuain Black non-Higraduate numb2014-15 are mthose that havesmall Black nonpopulations inplace (Figure 3such as Montaand North Dakwhich projectio 0 or less 1 to 1,000 a growth rate e 1,001 to 5,000 Greater than 5,00010 percent persee high rates obut very modesin the numberSource: WICHE non-Hispanic g 12. Actual and Projected High School York, Virginia, and Washington had shares between five and 10 percent. Several of those same states will as states that will see their number of public h graduates of Asian/Pacific Islander descent clim Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State continue to add larger numbers of graduates from this group than other states: California, Nevada, New Jersey, than 2,500 between 2005 and 2015 (Figure 3 Louisiana, Massachusetts, South Dakota, and New York, and Virginia will be joined by Florida and TexasIsland are forecast to produce fewer Asian/Pac graduates in th Figure 3.25. Numerical Change Between 2005A vast swath ofand 2015 in Asian/Pacific Islander the center of th spanning three Public High School Graduates by State West, the Midw the South), will modest increase than 1,000 Asia Islander gradua Nationally, Asia Islanders are pr to see the secon growth rates am racial/ethnic gro 3.26). Only fou see a negative a annual growth0 or lessthe decade follo1 to 1,000 2004-05: Hawa1,001 to 2,500Greater than 2,500 Massachusetts, Island.11 Arizon and Arkansas ca the biggest incrSource: WICHEin Asian/Pacific numbers, and tFigure 3.26. Average Annual Percent Change tier of states ge (other than Lou 13. % of Lives Births 18 Years Later Enrolledin Postsecondary Education % Enrolled in PSE8060 PSE participation rate40 Market share20 19701990 2000 0 New markets2008 2011Source: WICHE 14. Participation Rates PSE participation rates areinversely correlated to theeconomy Females participation rates haveincreased at a higher rate thanmales over the last decade Over the last decade theparticipation rate of Blacks,Hispanics, and Asian/PacicIslanders has increased slightly The national enrollment migrationpattern 6,289Source: US Department of Education 15. Market Share Market share Mind share 16. New Market RisksEstablished New Programs Programs1. Lowest Risk2. Moderate RiskEstablishedMarket Market PenetrationProgram Expansion3. Moderate Risk 4. Highest Risk NewMarket Market Expansion Market Diversication 17. orrows StudentsTom 18. Pathway Promises Further education Employment Career advancement Opportunities to learnJobs 19. Always Connected 20. Taking away their cell phones The bedroom is command central An escape from a mundane life Isolation or a social network Enhanced learning or deteriorationhttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/digitalnation/view/ 21. Entitlement generation Expect to succeed Seek edutainment Blurred boundaries for classroom behavior Socialize online and in packs Multi-taskers 22. Living in the Techno Cro-Magnon Period Inhabitants of a at world Increasingly diverse More 1st generation Family-oriented Marketing skeptics 23. The New Normal1975200850 44.743.537.525 31.122.1 12.520.7 0 8.8 Only Husband Working Dual Earners Single Parent Earner 24. 1.Changing careers more frequently2.Working multiple jobs3.Self-employed4.Contract laborers5.Working from home 25. The future of the US workforce will bedetermined by: The rate of recovery from the recession The growth of Green technology andinfrastructure jobs Legislation regarding labor force issues suchas NAFTA The pace of technological change A quickening rate of economic globalization 26. The future of the US workforce will bedetermined by: The rate of recovery from the recessionAdu lts student sewill follow thjobs. The growth of Green technology andinfrastructure jobs Legislation regarding labor force issues suchas NAFTA The pace of technological change A quickening rate of economic globalization 27. rging TrendsEme 28. Trend 1: Social and Digital Media 29. Privacy issues Sexting Cyber bullying Depression Relationship depth and breadth Illegal le sharing Access to all human knowledge Validation of information Plagiarism A culture of immediacy Classroom behavior 30. Privacy issues Sexting Cyber bullying Depression Relationship depth and breadth Illegal le sharing Access to all human knowledge Validation of information Plagiarism A culture of immediacy Classroom behavior 31. We are not immune to the phenomenon 36. Trend 3: Consumer-Driven,Flexible Learning Optionshttp://www.uopeople.org/ 37. Trend 4: High Tech, High Touch ServicesOne-stopServices 38. No-stop Serviceshttp://itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/student-services/id390961657 39. Any-stop Services Shared ServiceCenter 40. Trend 5: Outsourcing CRMSystems 41. Trend 6: A Widening Range of StudentAbilities, Preparedness, Background, andMotivationThe Obama Administrationshigher education agenda... 42. The Administrations Goals By 2020, have the Restructure federal highest collegenancial aid completion rate in the world Invest in communitycolleges to equip a Increase access to greater number of higher education people with the Strengthen the PSE skills to work in pipeline emerging industries 43. The top 5 countries with the highestcollege completion rates 1. Canada (55.8%) 2. South Korea (55.5%) 3. Russia (55.4%) 4. Japan (55.3%) 5. New Zealand (47.3%) 44. The top 5 countries with the highestcollege completion rates 1. Canada (55.8%) 2. South Korea (55.5%) 3. Russia (55.4%) 4. Japan (55.3%) 5. New Zealand (47.3%)Among Americans 25-34 years of age, 40% have an associates degree or higher--placing the US 12th in the ranking. 45. Challenges and Opportunities A recovering economy Protracted developmental coursework Early student engagement with supportservices Sustained intervention and mentoring Employee bandwidth Faculty development Commitment and accessibility of adjunctinstructors 46. Trend 7: Financial ConstraintsHigher education is in a periodof creative destruction.-- Joseph Schumpeter 47. US College Cost Trends Consumer Expectations 48. 2011-12 Tuition and Fees 49. College and universities ofthe future must focus on..

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