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eMetrics Summit
Digital Analytics Association
Jim Sterne What Makes a Great Analyst?
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
What Makes a Great Analyst?
Understand the Raw MaterialUnderstand the ToolsUnderstand the Problem to be SolvedUnderstand the Art of AnalysisUnderstand the Art of Communication
Big Data
VolumeVarietyVelocity
Get used to not being able to get used to
how much data you have
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Demographic DataPsychographic DataMarketplace Data
Direct Marketing MetricsCustomer Analytics (CRM)
Sales Force Automation DataCall Center DataWeb Analytics
Social Media Metrics
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Big Data
Big DataBig Data
ETL
Web Website Mobile Retail Call Center Social
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Touchpoints:
ETL
Web Website Mobile Retail Call Center Social
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
ETL
Web Website Mobile Retail Call Center Social
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Understand the Raw Material
ValidCredibleReliableConsistentCleanUnbiased
DefinedRelevantCorrelate-ableUnderstandableCompleteTimely
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Stephen Fewhttp://www.perceptualedge.com/blog/?p=820
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
What Makes a Great Analyst?
Understand the Raw MaterialUnderstand the ToolsUnderstand the Problem to be SolvedUnderstand the Art of AnalysisUnderstand the Art of Communication
Technical breakthroughs:cheap disk storagetaking the processing to the data
VolumeVarietyVelocity?
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Big Data
Map ReduceHadoop
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
What Makes a Great Analyst?
Understand the Raw MaterialUnderstand the ToolsUnderstand the Problem to be SolvedUnderstand the Art of AnalysisUnderstand the Art of Communication
Analytics are Worthlesswithout Goals
Defined – languageSpecific – amount and timeSupported– politically aligned
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Example: Business Goals
Raise RevenueLower CostsIncrease Customer Satisfaction
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Subordinate: Marketing Goals
Raise AwarenessImprove AttitudeInfluence InfluenceInspire InteractionGenerate SalesDrive Value
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of Analysis
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Color = SegmentKeywordsSourcePersonaLocationRecencyFrequencyPreferencesSocial media linksSocial media sentiment.....
Size = LTV
What Problem Are WeSolving For?
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
The Art of Marketing Analysis
Analytics are Worthless without GoalsDefined – language
Specific – amount and time
Supported– politically aligned
Example: Business GoalsRaise Revenue
Lower Costs
Increase Customer Satisfaction
Optimize for Customer Life Time Value
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
The Art of Marketing Analysis
Find more like these
Find more like these
Find more like these
Color = segment Size = LTV
Relinquish to competition
$$$
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
The Art of Marketing Analysis
Find more like these
Find more like these
Find more like these
Relinquish to competition
Turn into higher value customers
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Color = segment Size = LTV The Art of Marketing Analysis
Turn into higher value customers
Marketing Program 1A, 1B... 1n
Marketing Program 2A, 2B...2n
Marketing Program 3A, 3B... 3n
Deprioritize
ListOfferMediumCreative
Turn into higher value customers
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Color = segment Size = LTV The Art of Marketing Analysis
What Makes a Great Analyst?
Understand the Raw MaterialUnderstand the ToolsUnderstand the Problem to be SolvedUnderstand the Art of AnalysisUnderstand the Art of Communication
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
The low hanging fruit of analysis
Errors/omissions/complaints
Spikes & troughs
“That’s funny”
Anomalies
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of Analysis
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisThe low hanging fruit of analysis
KeywordsSourcePersonaLocationRecencyFrequencyPreferencesSocial media linksSocial media sentiment.....
Segmentation
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisThe low hanging fruit of analysis
SegmentationSegmentationReason Backwards
Identify the desired result
Identify those who have done it
Identify what they have in common
How are they different from the rest?
How do we find more like them?
How do we get others to act like them?
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisThe low hanging fruit of analysis
SegmentationSegmentationReason Backwards search landing page
product A product B product A product C details basket
reviews about us checkout
Return once moreClick once moreAgree once morePurchase once moreMention once more
Microconversions
Lies, damned lies, and statistics- Mark Twain
68% agree: “Advertising stimulates competition, which leads to better products and lower prices”
People Love Ads!!
68% agree: “I do not like my online behavior tracked and analyzed”
People Hate Ads!!
Art of AnalysisAnalytics Traps
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Do not use statistics
as a drunken man uses lamp-posts –
for support rather than for illumination
- Andrew Lang
Art of AnalysisAnalytics Traps
Lies, damned lies, and statistics- Mark Twain
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
It’s easy to misuse numbersIt’s even easier not to know you’re doing it
Bias
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisAnalytics Traps
Hindsight bias... I knew it all alongRepresentativeness bias... stereotypingAnchoring bias... small detail sets baselineAvailability bias.. the first thing that comes to mindConfirmation bias ... I only listen to what I agree with Self-serving bias... my success and your failureExpectancy bias... Seeing only what I expectSelf-consistency bias... I have always thought this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RsbmjNLQkchttp://www.clickz.com/clickz/column/2076211/dont-believe
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisAnalytics Traps
We
Really
Love
Puzz
les
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisAnalytics Traps
The Peril of Trick QuestionsAirplane crashBus rideBear hunt
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisAnalytics Traps
Correlation is not causation
Umbrellas cause rain
Ice cream vendors cause global warming
Smoking lengthens seniors’ lives
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisAnalytics Traps
Analyst
Tech Math
BusinessMultilingualPuzzle Solver
Lateral ThinkerDreamer
To make senseof lots of data
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Knowledge
Intelligence
Intuition
Analyst
BooksBlogs
ConferencesPracticeExercise
DaydreamBrainstorm
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Knowledge
Intelligence
Intuition
Stephen Fewhttp://www.perceptualedge.com/blog/?p=820
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Data tomatoInformation tomato is a fruitKnowledge fruit salad is good and easy to makeWisdom don't put tomatoes in fruit salad
Art of Analysis
Insight tomatoes can be treated like vegetables
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of Analysis
Consilience (Merriam Webster):the linking together of principles from different disciplines especially when forming a comprehensive theory
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of Analysis
“Where do ideas come from? Looking at one thing and seeing another”
-Saul Bass
InsightInferenceInspirationMoment of genius
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of Analysis
InsightInferenceInspirationMoment of genius
“...data scientists... make discoveries while swimming in data... [their] dominant trait is intense curiosity ... This often entails the associative thinking that characterizes the most creative scientists in any field.”
Tom Davenport & D.J. Patil
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of Analysis
InsightInferenceInspirationMoment of genius
As one grows older, one sees the impossibility of imposing your will on the chaos with brute force. But if you are patient, there may come that moment when, while eating an apple, the solution presents itself politely and says, ‘Here I am!’
- Albert Einstein
filtering/sorting/ranking/comparing/grouping
Art of Analysis
The most exciting phrase that heralds new discoveries, is not Eureka! (I found it) but: Hmmm, that's funny
- Isaac Asimov
Not: What’s the right answerBut: What’s the next question?
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
It’s not reporting
Art of Analysis
Reporting is the stripping away data for the purposes of communicating
Analysis is the aggregation of data for purposes of pondering
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Data
All models are wrongsome models are useful
George Box
Art of Analysis
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
CreativityIs there a pattern?Is there an anomaly?What can be omitted?What if we did it backwards?Can we look at it from the other side?What if this is the wrong problem?What if we changed the time scale?What additional data would be dispositive?What if it had wheels?What would Chuck Norris do?
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of Analysis
The ability to ask good questions
Art of Analysis
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
What Makes a Great Analyst?
Understand the Raw MaterialUnderstand the ToolsUnderstand the Problem to be SolvedUnderstand the Art of Communication
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisBeing Indispensable
Impart useful insight
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisBeing Indispensable
Impart useful insight DataMetricsReportsBenchmarksAlertsAutomationInsights
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisBeing Indispensable
Tell stories instead of delivering reportsLeave off the sausage making detailsTie everything to the bottom lineHelp individuals achieve their goalsHave an opinion
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisBeing Indispensable
We can improvethis numberby this percentin this time framewith this investmentAnd we can prove it
with this test
Have an Opinion and be Specific
We have this problemwhich we think is caused by this which might be fixed by thisin this time framewith this investmentAnd we can prove it
with this test
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Statistics AccountingProbability CertaintyLikelihood InevitabilityChance DeterminedIndicator FactProjected Proven
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of AnalysisBeing Indispensable
All models are wrongSome models are useful
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
George E. P. Box
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Art of Being Indispensable
InsightInferenceInspirationMoment of genius
Deliver itShip itSell itCommunicate it
Jim Sterne – [email protected] – @jimsterne – emetrics.org
Leave off the sausage making detailsTie everything to the bottom lineHelp individuals achieve their goalsTie those stories to individuals’ goals
Art of Being Indispensable
What Did We Learn?
Big Data is simply more than you are used toAnalytics are worthless without goalsCreativity is a skill / gift / necessityAll models are wrong, some are usefulIndispensable analysts have opinions