EMPLOYMENT AGENCY – Bulgarian PES

Researches to help predict the future of work

Anna Delibasheva November 2019Director of “Analysis, Monitoring and Planning “Directorate Ankara

Purpose:

•To collect and analyze up-to-date information on the

professions, competences, knowledge and skills of the

employees sought by employers;

•To guide labor market design policies regarding the needs of

new skills in the workforce;

•To direct investment in short-term workforce training in job-

seeking skills;

•Accelerate the transition from unemployment to employment

of persons with outdated skills and qualifications;

•To accelerate the absorption of job vacancies by providing the

workforce with the right skills and qualifications

Method:

Online survey by stratified random sample with a number of 4,000

statistical units designed for all active employers in the country

(396,000)

Frequency: Annually

Performer:

Employment Agency in cooperation with the social partners and the

scientific community

National representative study of short-term labor needs in Bulgaria

Main results of the survey conducted in 2018

0 4000 8000 12000

Builder

Welder

Crop worker

Machine operator

Operating accountant

Tailor

Schloser

Chef

The bartender waiter

Programmer

Economist

Office Manager

Builder - installer

Electrician

Worker in the food industry

Sales Representative

Electrician

Installer of energy facilities and…

Cashier

Fitter on transport equipment

20- Most sought after occupations

32%

20%14%

10%

8%

5%

4%

4%3%

Most sought after competencies

Communication in the

native language

Initiative and

entrepreneurship

None of these

Digital competence

Learning ability

Communication in foreign

languages

Mathematical competence

and basic knowledge of

nature

Public and civic

competences

Cultural awareness and

creativity

Goals achieved

4 256 unemployed persons enrolled in short-term / 2

months / training in the profession "Builder"

4 015 of whom successfully completed training, and

3 211 of them started work within 3 months of

completing the training;

2 975 job vacancies in construction through the

Employment Agency for the first nine months of 2019,

which is 88.2% of those declared during this period.

Reduction by 1.2 months of the average time spent on

job vacancies in the Construction sector for the nine months

of 2019 Compared to the same period in 2018.

An increase in the plan enrolls students in vocational high

schools in the 10 most wanted professions by 16.2% for the

2019/2020 school year and by 10% for the 2020/2021

school year;

Contract awarded to develop state educational standards

to acquire the following 12 key competences (21st Century

Skills):

21st Century Skills

1. Critical Thinking

2. Creativity

3. Collaboration

4. Communication

5. Information Literacy

6. Medical Literacy

7. Technology literacy

8. Flexibility

9. Guide

10. 10.Initiative

11. Productivity

12. Social skills

Labour Market Barometer

Labour Market Barometer

104,1

103,4

100,8

99,6

98,098,3

98,4

100,6

102,1

103,3

103,9103,7

102,9

100,9

98,7

97,9 98,0

101,3

100,7

100,2

99,3

98,999,1 99,2

100,9

102,2

102,6 102,7

102,1

101,2

99,8

98,9

98,5 98,2

102,7

102,0

100,5

99,4

98,598,7

98,8

100,7

102,2

103,0103,3

102,9

102,1

100,4

98,8

98,2 98,1

june 2018 jul 2018 aug 2018sept 2018 Oct 2018 nov 2018 Dec 2018 jan 2019 feb 2019 Mar 2019 apr 2019 May 2019june 2019 jul 2019 aug 2019sept 2019 Oct 2019

Longitudinal perspective

Employment Unemployment Labour Market Barometer

The success of the Barometer

1. Practical projections for the labor market are improving

2. Widespread media distribution

3. Wide approval of professional circles

4. The GCC institution is perceived as a leading expert in the labor market

5. Additional incentives to increase the institutional capacity of the PES

MEDIUM-TERM AND LONG-TERM FORECASTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LABOR MARKET I N BULGARIA

EMPLOYMENT AND IMBALANCES IN THE LABOR MARKET, FACTORS OF LABOUR SUPLY

(2008-2034)

•The model is in line with international best practices in the field.

•Includes mathematical and statistical tools, and is implemented in specialized software

environment (Python, R, EViews, PSPP, Excel, VBA).

Forecasting model for the labor market in Bulgaria

The methodological framework of the model

currently includes nine modules that allow

forecasts to be made with the following

parameters:

120 occupations,

35 economic activities,

28 country regions,

3 educational degrees,

gender,

6 age groups.

1) Module for macroeconomic education employment forecasting level;

2) Module for forecasting the structure of employment by economic activities;

3) Module for forecasting employment by educational levels at sectoral level and identifying

structural imbalances in the labor market;

4) Module for forecasting the duration of registration as an unemployed person educational level,

gender, age and region;

5) Module for forecasting employment by occupation;

6) Gender prediction module;

7) Module for forecasting employment by age groups;

8) Mid-term forecasting module;

9) Simulation module with integrated functionalities for simulating the development of the labor

market under different scenarios;

Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for economic growth in Bulgaria and the EU, and the development of market conditions

Optimistic scenarios for economic growth:

Employment Structure for Economic Growth, '000

Pessimistic scenarios for economic growth:

Employment Structure for Economic Growth, '000

POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS 2018 - 2034

Population (15-64), total Employment (15-64), total

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS FOR 2020, 2024 AND 2034, THOUSAND

KEY POINTS

Continued decline in the working-age population and the aging of the workforce

Low technological intensity of economic activities

Structural shortage of qualified

staff with secondary education and

structural surplus of employees

with tertiary and lower secondary

or lower education

Delay in the development of the

education and healthcare sectors

compared to other EU Member States

Significant laggin behind in wage levels

compared to the EU average

Increasing regional imbalances in the

labor market

Promoting fertility Technological development

Improving the quality of education Income policy

Medium-term solutions Long-term solutions

Mobilizing labor market reserves Investments in human capital

— Overcoming labor supply related problems:

— Possible solutions for overcoming the negative trends in the labor market:

— The main labour market challenges in the medium- and long-term:

https://www.mlsp.government.bg

https://www.az.government.bg/

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION !