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EMPLOYMENT BEHAVIOUR OF THE ELDERLY
IN THAILAND
Thuttai KeeratipongpaiboonDepartment of Economics
School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London
The 11th IFA Global Conference on Ageing
28 May – 1 June 2012. Prague, the Czech Republic
International Federation on Ageing (IFA)
A part of the CSEAS Project
Structure12 34
22
11
33
IntroductionIntroduction
Old-Age Employment Situation in ThailandOld-Age Employment Situation in Thailand
Determinant of Employment Decisions of the ElderlyDeterminant of Employment Decisions of the Elderly
44 ConclusionConclusion
2
Introduction12 34
• Increasing longevity: longer period of retirement
•Thai elderly people cannot rely on their own savings and invisible pensions: need family supports
•Urbanisation has deteriorated strength of family relationship: what happen to Thai elderly people?
•Possibility: a number of Thai elderly people have to be economically active for their own survival.
•Research aim: to study dynamic of employment behaviour of the elderly in Thailand
Significance of the Research
Methodology
• Data
• Socio-Economic Survey (SES) Data, 1990-2007 (National Statistical Office)
• Survey of the Older Persons in Thailand (SOP), 2007 (National Statistical Office)
• Secondary data from reliable sources
• Methodology
• Descriptive Analysis • Econometric Analysis – using a Probit regression model
3
Situation of Population Ageing in Thailand
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition.
4
Old-age Dependency Ratio is on an upward trend: Thailand has the highest rate in the SEA region12 34
Remark: an old-age dependency ratio is defined as a ratio of population 65+ per 100 population 15-64.
In 2007, the majority are:
• Attaining primary education or less
(91.78%)
• Female (56.27%)
• Household heads (59.87%)
• Married (60.68%)
• Able to go out without assistance
(healthy, 87.08%)
• Not working (58.09%)
• Not living in a household with
pension incomes (94.60%)
• Living in the Northeast (35.39%)
• Living with their children (60.39%)
• Living in three-generational
households (36.92%)
Average age of Thai elderly
increased from 69.15 (1990) to
69.72 years.
Summary of the Elderly in Thailand
Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data 5
Share of the Elderly by Living Arrangements, Thailand, 1990-2007
Remark: *excluding skipped generation households
12 34
Share of the Elderly by employment situation, Thailand, 1990-2007
• The labour-force participation rates of Thai elderly persons are quite high; higher than the world average.
• Almost one-fifth of Thai females aged 65 and over were found in the workforce in 2005.
• The LFP rates of females are quite high comparatively to Asia, LAC, Economies in Transition and the World.
• The share of elderly in Thailand’s labour force is on an upward trend; increasing from 3.7% to 7.0% during 1986-2006.
Old-Age Employment Situation12 34
6
Labour Force Participation Rates, the World Regions, 2005
Source: United Nations (2007, p.61, Table IV.2), Development in an Ageing World; Author’s own calculation from the ILO’s data, http://laborsta.ilo.org/ accessed on 12 march 2012.
Region/Country1
Age Group
25-54 55-64 65+
Men Women Men Women Men Women
World 95.1 66.7 73.5 38.7 30.2 11.3
Developed Countries 91.9 75.3 63.9 44.9 13.4 6.3
Economies in Transition 90.7 81.3 52.6 31.2 14.2 7.8
Africa 96.2 61.0 86.5 48.3 57.4 25.8
Asia 96.3 64.2 77.6 35.4 38.0 13.2
Latin America and the Caribbean 94.3 64.3 76.1 37.2 37.2 13.7
Oceania 87.4 73.3 76.0 60.6 51.4 33.4
Thailand 95.9 82.2 81.8 65.7 41.0 21.7
Source: summarised from the Ministry of Labour (2007), The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand.
Old-Age Employment Situation12 34Situations of Old-Age Labour Force, Thailand, 1986-2006
Sourc
e:
sum
mari
sed
fro
m t
he M
inis
try o
f La
bour
(20
07
), T
he S
ituati
on o
f O
ld-A
ge E
mp
loym
ent
in T
haila
nd
.
•Trends: more females, more older elderly (65+), better educated.•The majority are self-employed (60.97% in 2006). More elderly people are recently found in the private sector.
Old-Age Employment Situation12 34
8
Old-Age Employment Situations Thailand by Living Arrangements, 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data
Old-Age Employment Situation12 34
9
The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand, by Living Arrangements and Age Group, 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data
5.1
13.8
20.7
35.6
47.3
22.4
29.6
6.7
15.1
21.623.4
35.6
52.1
33.0
6.4
14.1
32.4
55.0
34.0
42.6
45.6
13.7
23.3
31.1
45.0
61.7
33.4
43.0
7.6
16.8
25.1
39.5
53.6
35.6
26.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Total Elderly (60+) Total Elderly (65+) 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 and over
Age Groups (Year)
Per
cent
age
of E
cono
mic
ally
Act
ive
Eld
erly
Per
sons
in
Eac
h A
ge G
roup
(%)
Three-or-More-Generational Households Two-Generational Households (excl. Skipped) Skipped Generation Households
One-Generational Households All Living Arrangements
Old-Age Employment Situation12 34
10
Reasons for Remaining in the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data
36.3541.49
34.83 34.60 33.20
51.72 43.86 54.88 57.4154.83
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
All Living Arrangements Three-or-More-Generational Households
Two-GenerationalHouseholds (exc Skipped)
Skipped GenerationHouseholds
One-GenerationalHouseholds
Still Healthy Looking after themselves/family Looking after their children
Noone can replace the job Not retire yet Having debt
Spend time Help child(ren)/ family members Others
Old-Age Employment Situation12 34
11
Reasons for Leaving the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data
9.13 8.59 8.15
19.12
7.03
72.61 77.8071.10
61.12
69.94
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
All Living Arrangements Three-or-More-GenerationalHouseholds
Two-GenerationalHouseholds (exc Skipped)
Skipped GenerationHouseholds
O ne-GenerationalHouseholds
Household working/ looking after family members Spouse/Child(ren) do not allow to work Waiting for next season
Too old Incapable for work with disability Illness
Voluntary idle Looking or waiting for a job Pension official
To rest Others
Determinant of Old-Age Employment
12
VariablesYear
1990 1994 1998 2004 2007
I. Demographic Factors
- Age -0.027*** -0.028*** -0.029*** -0.029*** -0.028***
(-11.14) (-14.41) (-18.38) (-17.17) (-22.15)
- Secondary Education -0.207*** -0.018 -0.012 -0.014 -0.037
(-3.31) (-0.30) (-0.19) (-0.35) (-1.21)
- Bachelor’s Degree 0.011 -0.107 0.050 -0.038 -0.117***
(0.10) (-1.16) (0.43) (-0.73) (-2.64)
- Master’s Degree or Higher 0.187 -0.024 -0.204**
(1.40) (-0.16) (-2.45)
- Male 0.118*** 0.056* 0.113*** 0.075*** 0.165***
(2.67) (1.72) (4.19) (3.32) (8.83)
- Household Head 0.177*** 0.262*** 0.188*** 0.273*** 0.228***
(3.37) (6.90) (7.11) (12.40) (12.23)
- Married 0.191*** 0.220*** 0.173*** 0.177*** 0.156***
(4.81) (6.87) (7.13) (7.73) (8.42)
- Able to go out by Themselves
without Assistance
0.269***
(10.98)
- Access to Medical Welfare -0.014 0.004
(-0.40) (0.11)
II. Economic Factors
- Pensions (Yes) -0.086 -0.145** -0.066 -0.145*** -0.114***
(-1.23) (-1.99) (-1.27) (-3.05) (-3.09)
- Transfer Payments (Yes) 0.024 -0.026 0.012 -0.026
(0.61) (-0.88) (0.58) (-1.31)
- Poverty (Yes) 0.055 0.093** 0.036 0.080*** 0.024
(1.27) (2.50) (1.01) (2.67) (0.90)
- Savings (Yes) 0.007 -0.017 0.014 -0.003 -0.012
(0.22) (-0.67) (0.60) (-0.21) (-0.73)
VariablesYear
1990 1994 1998 2004 2007
III. Household Characteristics
- Central 0.049 0.050 0.073 0.048 0.126***
(0.61) (0.84) (1.19) (1.40) (3.78)
- North 0.032 -0.022 0.050 0.040 0.122***
(0.39) (-0.38) (0.81) (1.14) (3.53)
- Northeast -0.013 0.055 -0.020 0.058 0.112***
(-0.16) (0.90) (-0.36) (1.62) (3.25)
- South 0.170* 0.081 0.125** 0.127*** 0.187***
(1.84) (1.25) (1.97) (3.21) (4.91)
- Rural -0.073* 0.000 0.013 -0.060*** -0.035**
(-1.65) (0.02) (0.39) (-3.72) (-2.46)
- Live in Three-or-More-
Generational Household
-0.040 -0.017 -0.125*** -0.056*
(-0.69) (-0.41) (-3.07) (-1.84)
- Live in Two-Generational
Household
-0.085 -0.208*** -0.154*** -0.230*** -0.198***
(-1.65) (-5.72) (-5.51) (-9.10) (-9.35)
- Live in Skipped Generation
Household
0.288*** 0.280*** 0.309*** 0.254*** 0.295***
(4.39) (5.92) (7.46) (7.63) (10.00)
- Household Size -0.210*** -0.205*** -0.186*** -0.213*** -0.256***
(-10.76) (-9.73) (-13.61) (-15.37) (-22.38)
- Household In the Agricultural
Sector
0.086** 0.114*** 0.102*** 0.430*** 0.386***
(2.25) (3.57) (4.15) (20.47) (20.59)
- Number of Recipients in
Household
-0.119*** -0.133*** -0.129*** 0.001
(-4.96) (-7.05) (-7.50) (0.12)
- Number of Earners in Household 0.431*** 0.493*** 0.465*** 0.438*** 0.494***
(15.17) (19.82) (23.57) (27.01) (34.02)
Number of Observations 2,279 5,861 6,913 15,478 20,120
Wald Chi-Squared 474.66 894.06 1085.73 1883.94 2785.62
Probability > Chi-Squared 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000***
Pseudo R-Squared 0.4974 0.5670 0.5660 0.6041 0.6240
Log Pseudo-Likelihood -796.59 -1724.72 -1986.62 -4175.35 -5144.71
12 34
Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data
Determinant of Old-Age Employment
13
Significant Factors:
•Demographic Factors: age(-), male(+), household head(+), married(+),
healthy(+)
•Economic Factors: pensions(-), poverty(+)
•Household Characteristics: rural(-), agricultural(+), household size(-),
one-generational households(+)
Key Findings:
•The elderly living in one-generational households are more likely to be
economically active than those staying in other living arrangements.
•Implying: the presence of adult children is one of the key factors in the older
persons’ decision to continue or to quit working.
12 34
Conclusions12 34
Conclusions
Policy Implications
• Although working could contribute to the country’s economic development, elderly employment should be also considered in its social aspects.
• Ideally, older persons should continue working as long as they wish and as long as their ability and competency allow them to do.
• The labour-force participation rates of the elderly have been increasing over these two decades.
• The majority of employed older persons are male, aged between 60-69, low-educated, married and self-employed.
• Elderly persons living in one-generational households are more likely to be economically active than those staying in other living arrangements.
• The main reason for remaining in the workforce is financial i.e. poverty and low family support. Another reason is that they are too healthy to retire.
• The key factor of labour-force withdrawal is health problems; they are too old to work.
14
Thank You
15
Thuttai KeeratipongpaiboonDepartment of EconomicsSOAS, University of London
Email: [email protected]
Supporting Documents
16
Living Arrangements of the Elderly
1990 2007
• The majority of elderly people in Bangkok live in two-generational households. Meanwhile, the majority of older persons in the Northeast and Central regions live in three-generational households.
• Trend: more elderly people are found in one-generational households in every region.
• Skipped generational households are mostly found in the Northeast and North regions; an upward trend.
• The average size of household is decreasing in every region. This is because of a delay of marriage and changing value towards having children.
17
Share of the Elderly, by Living Arrangements and Regions of Residence, 1990 & 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990 and 2007 SES data
Factors affecting Family Relationship
Source: Mason (1992), Figure 118
Key factors to decrease the importance of family: Industrialisation, Urbanisation and Migration
Industrialisation
Urbanisation
Migration
Family Productive Enterprise
Wage Employment of Individuals
Cost of Home-produced Goods
Demand for Female Labour
Universal Primary and Secondary Schooling
Per Capita IncomeFertility
Child Survival
Filial Piety
Parental Power
Female Labour Force Participations
Joint/Stem Family
Ability to Purchase Privacy/Care
Availability of Caregivers
Housing Availability
Separation of the Generations
Care of the Elderly
+
++
-
+
++
+
+-
-
++
+-
+
+
+
-+
-
+
+
+
+
--
-
-
-
Remarks: - Straight and single-headed arrows show casual relationships that run from the cause to the effect; meanwhile, curved and double-headed arrows represent correlated factors,- A sign shown next to the arrow demonstrates a relation between factors. The net impact of factors can be calculated by multiplying the signs. For example, if there is a negative sign between factor A and B, and also a negative sign between factor B and C, the relationship of factors A and C is positive.
Regional Population Ageing in Thailand
RegionShare of the Elderly (%) Old-Age Dependency Ratio (%)
2000 2010 2020 2025 2000 2010 2020 2025
Whole Kingdom 9.43 11.90 17.51 21.22 14.30 17.61 26.58 33.28
Bangkok 7.88 11.28 20.40 26.97 10.61 16.06 30.68 42.50
Central (excl.BKK)
9.84 11.63 16.98 20.80 14.54 16.87 25.18 31.83
North 11.09 13.43 20.16 24.21 17.02 19.65 31.02 39.08
North-East 8.71 11.93 16.95 20.12 13.62 17.99 25.92 31.67
South 9.41 10.76 14.61 17.45 15.06 16.42 22.45 27.28
Source: Author’s own calculation from the Thailand’s Population Projection 2000-2030 provided by NESDB19
Shares of the Elderly and Old-Age Dependency Rations, Thailand, 2000-2025
Age Profiles of Household Savings
Age Profiles of Savings (Whole Kingdom), by ages of household heads, 2007
100
exp x
incomecapitaperhousehold
enditurenconsumptiocapitaperhouseholdincomecapitaperhouseholdratiosavinghousehold
Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data provided by NSO20
• Poor if household per capita income is below the poverty line
• The majority of poor elderly people are in the Northeast region.
• Rich households have positive savings; meanwhile, poor households are likely to face the problem of insufficient income.
Old-Age Poverty
21
Regions
Total Elderly People
(%)
Share of Poor Elderly People to Total Elderly People (%)
1990 1994 1998 2004 2007
Whole Kingdom
100.0025.61 20.96 18.14 13.55 12.82
Bangkok 100.00 7.14 2.34 1.79 1.79 1.55Central (excl.BKK)
100.0021.93 10.97 13.25 7.95 5.26
North 100.00 26.85 19.77 15.97 19.77 14.18North-East 100.00 30.61 32.18 27.10 17.65 20.40South 100.00 31.29 18.63 15.36 10.36 9.55
Share of the Poor Elderly 60( +), by Region, Thailand, 1990-2007
Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data
Age Profiles of Household Savings, by Income Groups, Thailand, 2007
Source: Author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data
Source: Author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data
Share of Poor Elderly People, by Region, Thailand, 1990-2007
100
exp x
incomecapitaperhousehold
enditurenconsumptiocapitaperhouseholdincomecapitaperhouseholdratesavinghousehold
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Hou
seho
ld S
avin
g R
ate
(%)
Age of Household Head
1st Decile 2nd Decile 3rd Decile 4th Decile 5th Decile6th Decile 7th Decile 8th Decile 9th Decile 10th Decile
Fertility in Thailand
Remarks: 1 Bangkok was included in the Central region during 1960-1969;2 1970 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office;3 1980 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office;4 1990 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office;5 2000 Census with Indirect Method Estimate, National Statistic Office;6 The United Nations (2009a), World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision; 7 Survey of Population Change, National Statistical Office.
Source: adapted from Table 1 in Prachuabmoh and Mithranon (2003). 22
Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios
23
Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios
Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on 1 March 2010. 24
Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, the World, 1980-2020
Estimates Projections
Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios
Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on 1 March 2010. 25
Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, Thailand, 1980-2020
Estimates Projections
Natural Increases and Net Migration
Remark: Natural Increase = Births – DeathsSource: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat,
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm accessed 8 March 2012. 26
Estimates (1950-2010) and Projections (2010-2050), Thailand
Thailand
-400-200
0200400
600800
1,0001,200
1950
-55
1955
-60
1960
-65
1965
-70
1970
-75
1975
-80
1980
-85
1985
-90
1990
-95
1995
-00
2000
-05
2005
-10
2010
-15
2015
-20
2020
-25
2025
-30
2030
-35
2035
-40
2040
-45
2045
-50
('000
) per
sons
Natural Increase Net Migration