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1st Quarter 2005 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland
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Page 1: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

1st Quarter 2005

Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyIreland

Page 2: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

2

ContentsRepublic of Ireland Employment Outlook

Regional Comparisons 3

Sector Comparisons 5

Global Employment Outlook 9

International Comparisons - Americas 10

International Comparisons - Asia Pacific 11

International Comparisons - Europe 12

About the Survey 14

About Manpower 15

Please note that throughout this report, the figure used in all graphs is the “Net Employment Outlook”.

This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and

subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their

location in the next quarter.

Page 3: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland

3

Republic of Ireland

The QuestionHow do you anticipate total employment at your location

to change in the three months to the end of March 2005

as compared to the current quarter? Of the Irish

employers interviewed, 19% said they expect to hire

more people during the first quarter of 2005. Only 4%

expect to reduce their workforce, and 74% anticipate no

change. The Net Employment Outlook therefore remains

at an upbeat +15%.Whilst no meaningful quarter-on-

quarter is recorded at the overall national level, the Net

Employment Outlook is up 12 percentage points

compared to the corresponding period of 2004.

Table 1: Q1 Results for last 5 Quarters

% Increase % Decrease % no change % Don’t know Net employment outlookQ1 2005 19 4 74 3 +15Q4 2004 18 4 76 2 +14Q3 2004 23 5 72 0 +18Q2 2004 16 7 77 0 +9Q1 2004 14 11 75 0 +3

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Chart 1: Q1 Results for last 5 Quarters

2003 2004 2005

Regional Comparisons

Positive hiring intentions are found in all of the Irish

regions. Employers in Munster and Connaught have the

most optimistic expectations, with those in Ulster and

Dublin holding more cautious views.

As is shown in the following section, whilst quarter

on quarter Net Employment Outlook increases are

observed in only two regions [Dublin and Leinster],

year on year increases are recorded in every region.

Connaught

Dublin

Leinster

Munster

National average

Ulster

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Chart 2: Net Employment Outlook by Region

+ 24

+7

+15

+28

+16

+8

Page 4: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

4

Connaught

The greatest quarter-on-quarter increase is recorded in

Connaught where the Net Employment Outlook is up

25 percentage points to a healthy +24%.

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Chart 3: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Connaught

2003 2004 2005

Dublin

The trend of increasing optimism observed throughout

2004 ends with the Net Employment Outlook for Dublin

halving since the previous quarter to a level similar to

that recorded at the corresponding period of 2004.

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Chart 4: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Dublin

2003 2004 2005

Leinster

Despite a percentage point quarter-on-quarter

decrease, employers in Leinster expect a positive start

to 2005, the Net Employment Outlook up 16

percentage points year-on-year to +15%.

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Chart 5: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Leinster

2003 2004 2005

Munster

The greatest year-on-year regional increase is observed

in Munster. With the Net Employment Outlook up 27

percentage points year-on-year and 13 percentage

points quarter-on-quarter, employers here are

expecting active levels of first quarter hiring activity.

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Chart 6: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Munster

2003 2004 2005

Page 5: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

5

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland

Ulster

No meaningful quarter-on-quarter or year-on-year

change is found in Ulster where employers have

cautiously optimistic first quarter hiring intentions.

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Chart 7: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Ulster

2003 2004 2005

Sector Comparisons

Employers across all but one sector of the labor market

have positive hiring intentions for the first quarter of

2005. As was the case last quarter, the single

exception is the Restaurants and Hotels [-8%] sector.

Employers in the Wholesale and Retail Trade [+24%]

and Electricity, Gas and Water [+21%] anticipate the

greatest optimism regarding the forthcoming quarter.

15

7

19

21

13

3

1

2

-8

6

24

9

Agriculture, etc.

Community, etc.

Construction

Electricity, etc.

Finance, etc.

Manufacturing

Mining & Quarrying

Pharmaceutical

Restaurant & Hotels

Transport, etc.

Wholesale & Retail

National average

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Chart 8: Net Employment Outlook by Sector

Page 6: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

6

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Despite a 6-percentage point quarter-on-quarter

decrease in Net Employment Outlook, employers in the

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector have upbeat

expectations regarding the first quarter of 2005.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 9: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

20

2003 2004 2005

Community, Social and Personal

The greatest quarter-on-quarter decrease is observed

in the Community, Social and Personal sector where

the Net Employment Outlook is down 28 percentage

points. Is is noticeable however that employers in this

sector are considerably more positive than at the

corresponding period of 2004 when the Net

Employment Outlook stood 17 percentage points

ower at -10%.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 10: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Community, Social and Personal

20

2003 2004 2005

Electricity, Gas and Water

The greatest quarter-on-quarter increase in Net

Employment Outlook is recorded in the Electricity, Gas

and Water sector where employers anticipate active

first quarter hiring activity.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 12: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Electricity, Gas and Water

20

2003 2004 2005

Construction

Unlike 12 months previously, employers in the

Construction sector anticipate positive first quarter

hiring activity, the Net Employment Outlook standing at

an upbeat +19%

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 11: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Construction

20

2003 2004 2005

Page 7: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

7

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Ireland

Mining and Quarrying

Employers in the Mining and Quarrying sector

anticipate a stagnant start to 2005 with the Net

Employment Outlook down 15 percentage points

quarter-on-quarter and 12 percentage points year-on-

year to +1%.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 15: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Mining and Quarrying

20

2003 2004 2005

Finance, Insurance, Real Estateand Business Services

Whilst employers in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate

and Business Services sector are upbeat regarding

their first quarter hiring intentions, a notable year-on-

year downturn is observed, with the Net Employment

Outlook down 7 percentage points on the

corresponding period of 2004.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 13: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services

20

2003 2004 2005

Manufacturing

The greatest year-on-year increase in Net Employment

Outlook is observed in the Manufacturing sector. That

said, employers here expect a quiet start to 2005 with

the Net Employment Outlook largely unchanged since

the last quarter at +3%.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 14: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Manufacturing

20

2003 2004 2005

Pharmaceutical

Within the Pharmaceutical sector, employers expect a

slow-paced first quarter with the Net Employment

Outlook down 17 percentage points to +2%. This

does reflect an improvement since the corresponding

period of 2004 when the Net Employment Outlook

stood 7 percentage points lower at -5%.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 16: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Pharmaceutical

20

2003 2004 2005

Page 8: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

8

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Solid first quarter hiring activity is expected by

employers in the Wholesale and Retail Trade sector

where the Net Employment Outlook for the current

quarter [+24%] is higher than at any previous time

since the establishment of the survey in Ireland.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 19: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Wholesale and Retail

20

2003 2004 2005

Restaurants & Hotels

Whilst employers in the Restaurants & Hotels sector

have pessimistic expectations regarding first quarter

hiring activity, a notable year-on-year Net Employment

Outlook improvement of 16 percentage points is

observed.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 17: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Restaurants and Hotels

20

2003 2004 2005

Transport, Storage andCommunication

Only modest levels of hiring activity are expected by

employers in the Transport, Storage and

Communication sector where the Net Employment

Outlook stands at +6%.

60

50

40

30

10

0

-10-20

-30

-40

Chart 18: Quarterly Net Employment Outlook - Transport, Storage and Communication

20

2003 2004 2005

Page 9: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

9

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Europe

Global Employment OutlookOver 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated

employment trends between January and March 2005.

Regional & International Comparisons

Employers in 17 of 19 countries and territories say they

expect positive hiring activity in the coming quarter, with

12 countries reporting stronger hiring levels compared

to one year ago. New Zealand and Hong Kong

employers once again reported the strongest

anticipated hiring trends for the quarter ahead.

Although employers in both Italy and Germany are

reporting negative Net Employment Outlooks for this

quarter, German employer confidence has improved

since the first quarter of 2004, whilst employer

confidence in Italy has decreased slightly over the same

period of time.

In the U.S., Canada and the UK, seasonally adjusted

results reveal continuing employer optimism and solid

hiring levels with all three countries recording year-over-

year improvements. Notably, Canadian and American

employers reported the strongest first-quarter outlooks

in four years.

Net Employment OutlookAMERICAS

CanadaMexicoUnited States

ASIA PACIFIC

AustraliaHong KongJapanNew ZealandSinapore

EUROPE

AustriaBelgium FranceGermanyIrelandItalyNetherlandsNorwaySpainSwedenUK1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for Canada, the UK

and the United States.

Q4 2004%

13(17)1

1821(20)1

Q1 2005%

4(18)1

1214(21)1

Qtr on Qtr ChangeQ4 2004 to Q1 2005

-9(+1)1

-6-7(+1)1

Q4 2004%1725112914

Q1 2005%172613308

Qtr on Qtr ChangeQ4 2004 to Q1 2005

0121-6

Q4 2004%475-214-16759

18(14)1

Q1 2005%152-615-131255

14(18)1

Qtr on Qtr ChangeQ4 2004 to Q1 2005

-3-2-3-410-350-4

-4(+4)1

REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Net Employment Outlook

Net Employment Outlook

Page 10: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

10

Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across

the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure

anticipated employment trends between January and

March 2005. The overall regional outlook is positive

with employers in all three countries forecasting year-

over-year improvements.

Based on the seasonally adjusted data, employers in

the United States posted the region’s strongest Net

Employment Outlook. U.S. and Canadian employers

reported their strongest first-quarter outlooks in four

years. Mexican employers expect to hire less in the first

quarter than they did at the close of 2004. However,

the hiring outlook is comparable to levels reported at

this time last year.

Americas

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

Canada50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Mexico

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

USA

Page 11: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

11

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Europe

Over 6,000 interviews have been conducted across

Asia Pacific to measure anticipated employment trends

between January and March 2005.

Continued positive hiring activity is expected in all of the

countries surveyed in Asia Pacific, with employers in

New Zealand reporting the most positive outlook.

Employers in Hong Kong also revealed optimistic hiring

intentions for the first three months of the year with

their strongest outlook in seven quarters. In Hong

Kong, it is noticeable that Hong Kong’s Net

Employment Outlook has increased at every quarter

since the establishment of the survey. Singapore

employers reported weaker hiring activity compared to

the previous quarter. Employers in Japan revealed a

considerable Net Employment Outlook improvement

year-over-year. Employers in both Australia and

Singapore reveal no meaningful year-over-year changes

in anticipated hiring patterns.

Asia Pacific

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Australia50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Hong Kong

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005

Singapore

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Japan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

This country joined the survey in Q2 2004.

New Zealand

Page 12: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

12

Over 10,000 interviews have been conducted across

11 European nations to measure anticipated

employment trends between January and March 2005.

The overall regional Net Employment Outlook for

Europe is positive with only employers in Italy and

Germany continuing to reveal negative hiring intentions

for the quarter ahead. However, 6 of the 11 countries

anticipate decreases in year-over-year outlooks.

Employers in Ireland and the UK continue to report the

most buoyant hiring intentions in Europe with Ireland

reporting a considerable year-over-year improvement.

Employers in Norway are very upbeat about first-

quarter hiring intentions, reporting the highest level ever

recorded for the country. Employers in Germany,

although forecasting a negative outlook for the quarter

ahead, are less pessimistic than they were in the first

quarter of 2004. Notably, in the next three months

French employers are anticipating the weakest hiring

levels since the survey began in this country.

Europe

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005

Austria50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Belgium

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

France50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Germany

Page 13: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

13

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Global

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Ireland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

2003 2004 2005

Italy

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Netherlands50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Norway

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Spain50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-202003 2004 2005

Sweden

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

2003 2004 2005

UK

Page 14: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

14

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedquarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforce during thenext quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40 yearsand is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity inthe world. Various factors underpin the success of the ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey:Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area offocus.Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the onlyforward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast employmentover the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focuson retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived allof its information from a single question.Independent: The survey is conducted with a representativesample of employers from throughout the countries in which it isconducted. The survey participants are not derived fromManpower’s customer base.Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than 35,000public and private employers across 19 countries and territories tomeasure anticipated employment trends each quarter. Thissample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectorsand regions to provide more detailed information.

MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using avalidated methodology, in accordance with the highest standardsin market research. The research team for the 19 countries andterritories where the survey is currently conducted includesManpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Organization Researchand Analysis Division of Right Management Consultants - anindependent operating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World andGrupo IDM. The survey has been structured to be representativeof each national economy. The margin of error for all national,regional and global data is not greater than +/-4.2%.

In Ireland, the national survey is conducted by Right ManagementConsultants and includes 562 employers. With this number ofinterviews, the margin of error for the Ireland Survey is +/-4%.

Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net EmploymentOutlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage ofemployers anticipating an increase in hiring activity andsubtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect tosee a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Canada,the United States and United Kingdom to provide additionalinsight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possibleto review the data without the employment fluctuations thatnormally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a

clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to addseasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future,as more historical data is compiled.

SectorsThe industry sectors that are reported for each country in thisreport are representative of the local economy. In some areas ofthe report, we have reported the data in two broad sectorcategories: Industry and Services. These categories are consistentwith standards of other respected international data sources. The“Industry” category includes sectors such as: construction,manufacturing, mining and public utilities. The “Services” categoryincludes wholesale and retail trade; restaurants and hotels;transportation and storage; communication; finance; insurance;real estate; other business services and public administration.

History of the Survey1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of the

United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the same forward looking research format as the United States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States and Canada. Research methodology is updated to evolve with advancements in the field of market research.

2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.

2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.

2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

About the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

Page 15: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

15

About Manpower IncManpower Inc. (NYSE:MAN) is a world leader in the employment

services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to

meet their needs throughout the employment and business cycle.

The company specializes in permanent, temporary and contract

recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition and

organizational consulting services. Manpower’s world wide

network of 4,300 offices in 67 countries and territories enables the

company to meet the needs of its 400, 000 customers per year,

including small and medium size enterprises in all industry

sectors, as well as the world’s largest multinational corporations.

The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through

improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling

customers to concentrate on their core business activities. In

addition to the Manpower branch, the company operates under

the brand names of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson

Wells, Elan, Brook Street and Right Management Consultants.

More information on Manpower Inc. is available at

www.manpower.com.

2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved

About Manpower IrelandManpower is Ireland’s leading provider of workforce management

solutions specializing in permanent and temporary recruitment,

HR services, managed services, outsourcing and HR consultancy.

Manpower Ireland’s network of offices allows the company to

meet the needs of local and national customers. This includes

numerous small and medium sized enterprises, as well as larger

organisations.

The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through

improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling

customers to concentrate on their core business.

Manpower has a highly skilled workforce of over 2000 temporary

employees who stay loyal to the company (and it customers)

thanks to best in class employment benefits. These include a

contract of employment and a free e-learning toll offering staff

over 1,000 courses in a diverse range of subjects, keeping

Manpower’s workforce up to date with today’s ever-changing

working environment.

Page 16: Employment Outlook Survey 2005

Manpower, 54 Grafton Street, Dublin 2Tel: (+)35 31 645 5200

www.manpower.ie

© 2004, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.


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