Empowering Communities: Making climate change local and exploring alternative future visions

EMPOWERING COMMUNITIES: Making climate change local and exploring alternative future visions Stephen R. J. Sheppard PhD., ASLA. Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning, UBC, Vancouver, Canada Communicating Climate Change: Visualization workshop, Bedruthan, Cornwall 21 May 2014

D. Flanders, CALP

Empowering Communities: Outline 1.  More effective community engagement:

–  Making climate change local with simple visual learning tools (eg. photo-albums, community mapping)

2.  Better planning processes: –  Exploring alternative future visions: embedding

landscape visualization within participatory processes

3.  Resources for scaling-up and replicating/adapting such methods

Crisis?

Source: InTouch Magazine, 14 August 2006

Which crisis?

Principles for communicating climate change

•  Make it local (or regional)

•  Make it visual (compelling)

•  Make it holistic (connecting the dots on climate change)

Question: How many of you have seen climate change?

Coastal flooding in West Vancouver, 2013

Photograph by: Mark van Manen, Vancouver Sun

7

Subtle impacts in local landscapes…

Proof

Taylor & FrancisNot for distribution

Proof

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PART II Knowing, seeing and acting

Unstable weather patterns are becoming more obvious owing to the increasing frequency

of extreme events. While the media often dramatise these events, they receive only short-

term coverage and are easily forgotten unless they happen in one’s own community.

Worse yet, they are generally not linked to climate change in information releases where

they are consistent with expected climate change trends. Often, only foresters and park

managers recognize the long-term aftermath in the local landscape. These events (such

as record snowfalls or rainstorms) are still relatively rare in many communities in

temperate regions, and it is hard for people to detect their increasing frequency without

good, clear information.

Impact Window 3 Historical evidence and gradual shifts in temperate regions

Fading memories of once-common conditions, and creeping changes.

(a) Backyard ice-rinks: a tradition for children growing up in eastern Canada that is becoming a thing of the past in this hockey-obsessed nation. Will Canadians see a fall-off in interest in the sport or just more children being driven to the hockey arena?

(b) ‘Early spring’ in my mother’s garden in Witney, England: are the early blossoms on the almond tree and clematis a delight or a foreshadowing of worse to come?

M06_Visualizing Climate Change_P02C06.indd 148 05/12/2011 08:51:30

Source: S. Sheppard, 2012

Climate Change Components Causes

“Carbon consciousness”

Impacts “Damage report”

Mitigation solutions “Dealing with the causes” (GHGs)

Adaptation solutions “Dealing with the effects”

Seeing the world through a holistic climate change lens

BC Community Energy and Emissions Inventory (CEEI)

•  Natural gas •  Gasoline

West Vancouver CEEI data

What goes around comes around?

Photo-album documenting local causes of climate change

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Proof


Proof

112


Carbon Window 3 Fossil fuels in the neighbourhood (I): burning carbon in our homes and backyards

(a) Large or low-efficiency homes consume high quantities of natural gas, oil, coal or electricity from fossil fuels for heating or cooling. Chimneys may be the only externally visible carbon indicator.

(b) Gas meters: many buildings have them, explicitly recording how much carbon we are burning and releasing, but they are hard to read, located in less visible locations outside the home, and often deliberately screened from public view.

(c) High carbon businesses in Merida, Mexico, with air-conditioners in poorly insulated office buildings and on-street employee parking.

(d) Natural gas fireplaces are designed to be viewed inside the home and to mimic an attractive, carbon-neutral wood fire. In truth, ‘natural’ gas in this context is really unnatural (extracted from deep below the earth) and more dangerous.


Local Mitigation Solutions

Proof


Proof

188


Mitigation Window 5 Community-wide services and redevelopment

When local government gets in on the act.

(a) A community district heating system and 2.2MW power generation in Purkersdorf near Vienna, running on wood-chips: comfortably embedded in the heart of the village next to the fire station and shops. Townsfolk can see where their power comes from.

(b) Higher density zoning reduces per-family carbon footprints in various architectural configurations, but moderate densification through infill housing, secondary suites, etc. is more acceptable to existing residents than stark high-rise glass and concrete towers.

(c) View from a train in eastern Germany: rural communities living cheek by jowl with co-owned wind farms that contribute to the local economy.

(d) Grass growing on road medians and verges in Freiburg, Germany is kept long and natural to reduce the use of fossil fuels in maintenance: they have become a low-key symbol of green living, accepted by residents.


Photo credits: S. Sheppard

Local Adaptation Solutions

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Proof


Proof

CHAPTER 8 Seeing adaptation solutions

223

Adaptation Window 4 Measures for managing water hazards in one area

The MetroVancouver region of Canada: wet and wild.

(a) Sea-walls have been built to protect homes along Boundary Bay, BC, but higher walls to guard against faster sea-level rise have been opposed by some residents because they will block cherished beach views.

(b) Major stream channel reconstruction has become necessary on steep Northshore creeks to reduce bank erosion, channel scouring and debris flows (rock-laden torrents).

(c) Beach restoration in West Vancouver, increasing protection from storm scouring by reconfiguring the shoreline to trap marine sediment; well accepted by the community, but hard to notice without time-lapse photography.


Photo credits: S. Sheppard

Making energy visible with thermal imaging Eagle Island neighbourhood retrofit

•  29/30 homes have done energy audits & thermal imaging

•  Most have done energy upgrades, reduced carbon emissions

•  Fuelled by dinners, wine, and fun !

Sources: PICS White Paper on thermal imaging and community-led social mobilization (Cote et al., in press); UK TI research: Goodhew et al., 2010

Proof


Proof

CHAPTER 9 Seeing the big picture

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Retr

ofit

exis

ting

com

mun

ity

Eagle Island, West Vancouver, Canada, 2009

Eagle Island is a community of about 30 homes where almost all households have done an energy audit, are doing thermal imaging of heat loss, and have pledged to retrofit their homes to cut carbon footprint and reduce energy costs.

Gussing, Austria, 1996 A crisis in paying for fossil fuel led to wholesale conversion of the town to biomass energy for heating and electricity. Now an internationally renowned green tourism centre.

To illustrate just how much progress is possible, we will now take a closer look at three examples of pioneering communities that are quite far along the path towards realizing their visions of sustainability. They give us glimpses of what the future may look like when communities follow very different pathways. Box 9A shows what a small rural community can accomplish and Box 9B, a fairly large city; both exhibit retrofitting of existing communities (with some new development), coming from different parts of Europe. Our third example comes from China, which in 2009 overtook the USA to become the world’s largest source of greenhouse gases: it represents the different problem faced in the ‘New World’ of building a very large low-carbon city more or less from scratch.


Photos: S. Sheppard

DIY visualization

Credit: Andrew MacFarland and Damion Dorn, West Vancouver Secondary School

NEIGHBOURHOOD TOOLKIT: Mapping climate change on your block

Purpose: engaging neighbours with community mapping of local climate change indicators

– Carbon (high or low?; mitigation potential?) – Vulnerability to climate change (high or low?;

adaptation potential?)

Green Areas

Credit: Mayara Benedetti

MOST POSSIBLE FLOODED AREAS

SECONDARY FLOODED AREAS

Vulnerability—easily flooded areas Nanjing Forestry University students Group 6, November 2013


–  Making climate change local with hands-on visual learning tools


landscape visualization within structured participatory processes

Graphs and numbers aren’t enough

Delta: 1.2m of sea level rise projected by 2100 (BC Sea Dike Guidelines, 2011)

We need ‘defensible drama’: visually compelling, science-based time-travel in familiar places

Ladner Dike View

D. Flanders, CALP

Build Up Scenario

D. Flanders, CALP

Goal: develop and test a new engagement/planning process:

•  best available data, expert & local knowledge: co-production

•  spatial analysis/GIS & hybrid modelling •  experiential ‘landscape visualization’ to

tap emotions & sense of place •  evaluation of the effect of the process on

knowledge, opinions, motivations & policy

Local Climate Change Visioning Process

Localize, spatialize and visualize climate change

Average April 1st Snowline Snowpack example

Canadian Global Climate Model 2: A2 scenario

Data: Environment Canada; Visualization: D. Flanders, CALP

Components of Visioning Process

1.  Participation

2.  Scenario Building

3.  Data / Modeling Integration

4.  3D and 4D Visualizations

Visioning Process

Iteration of components through phases with a local working group.

GHG Scenarios (CO2-equiv, millions of tonnes)

( 2 8 -‐ 0 1-‐ 0 7)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

A 2 / F ortressWorld

B 2 / PolicyR eform

B 1-‐450 / GreatT rans itions

GB-QUEST Modelling/ Tellus regional scenarios for Metro Vancouver (Carmichael)

Visualizing future pathways (alternative land use plans and lifestyles)

Visualisation: D. Flanders, CALP

•  2D maps/community mapping

•  Info-graphics

•  3D landscape visualizations, video, animations

Various visual learning tools

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Proof


Proof

CHAPTER 10 Making climate change more visible

297

One exciting way of connecting locally observed information with that of other communities is through what is called Public Participation GIS (PPGIS), where people enter their own data into an online spatial database:

What if we could exploit the collective reality of what emerges from multiple and consistent observations around the world? The Global Climate Change Mapping Project is designed to collect and display the ‘people’s view’ of climate change by offering the opportunity for anyone to identify environmental changes that may be due to climate change … when you combine easy-to-use mapping technology with the global reach of the internet.12

This approach taps local knowledge in communities by giving people a simple, structured way to locate and describe changes in their landscape that may be due to climate change (Figure 10.7), though information quality may be very variable unless more systematic methods (as proposed here) or scientific verification are used. It could also be extended to map causes and solutions for climate change.

Figure 10.7 Data points with annotations on observed local climate change impacts, entered by contributors around the world using a Google Maps interface developed by the Landscape Values and PPGIS Institute; this example is from Washington State


Data: Natural Resources Canada; Visualization: J. Danahy, U. of Toronto

N. Miller, CALP

Greg Brown,

How does Climate Change Visioning work in practice?

•  With a regional socio-economic model and climate change projections: –  North Vancouver, BC: suburban hillside community –  Delta, BC: coastal floodplain community

•  With simple GIS mapping & Google Earth in an official adaptation plan: –  Kimberley, BC: rural forest-dependent community

Current Mean April 1st Snowline (759m) 2020s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (789m) 2050s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (920m) 2090s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (1074m) NORTH VANCOUVER D. Flanders, CALP

NORTH VANCOUVER J. Laurenz, CALP

Local food market

Live / work development

60% reduction in home energy consumption

Mul4family suites

Community gardening

Electric commuter vehicles

Smaller, efficient cars

Increased public transit

Stormwater drainage swale Passive solar

conservatory

NORTH VANCOUVER J. Laurenz, CALP

Coastal Neighbourhoods

Holistic Landscape Planning for Climate Change DNV Presentation

December 15, 2008 Flanders/Pond

Existing Condition 2100: Storm surge (3.48m)

2100: Wall Adaptation 2100: Dike Adaptation 2100: Retrofitting largely complete 2050: Complete resilient floating neighbourhood

DELTA D. Flanders, CALP

Change in Perceptions of Urgency:

•  Before: 23% of practitioners felt that the impacts of climate change are serious now

•  After: 46% felt that way

When impacts of climate change will become serious (Metro Van Practitioners;

Before)

020406080

100

Never 100yearsfromnow

50 yearsfromnow

20 yearsfromnow

It isserious

now

% R

espo

nden

ts

When impacts of climate change will become serious (Metro Van Practitioners;

After)

020406080

100

Never 100yearsfromnow

50 yearsfromnow

20 yearsfromnow

It isserious

now

% R

espo

nden

ts

Impacts of Local Climate Change Visioning Process?

•  Increased understanding of local impacts and solutions

•  Increased willingness (65-69%) to support local mitigation/adaptation measures

Delta 2007 public workshops with survey:

Longterm impacts on decision-making (interviews 4 years later): •  Local government staff

more willing to consider radical solutions to climate change

•  Northshore climate hazards study / detailed Delta adaptation scenario assessment

•  Widespread use of visual images in the community

Participant comments on the process (South Delta community):

•  "I learned how climate change could affect my community in a very graphic way. Numbers may not stay with me but visuals will”

•  "I was somewhat aware of global warming impacts on the Maldives and polar ice caps - this presentation placed my own community in that context”

•  “Felt empowered”

Kimberley: User evaluation of visualization helpfulness

Over 30 adaptation measures adopted in the final Plan

Kimberley public meeting Respondents n=38, valid n=38 Mean: 4.370, Standard Deviation 1.051

O. Schroth, C. Miller, CALP


–  Making climate change local with hands-on visual learning tools


time travel through landscape visualization within participatory processes

3.  Resources for scaling-up & replicating such processes

Resources:

Earthscan/Routledge book www.visualizingclimatechange.ca

Delta RAC website: http://www.delta-adaptation-bc.ca Visualization Training Modules: http://www.delta-adaptation-bc.ca/category/training-modules/

www.calp.forestry.ubc.ca/publications

Visioning Guidance Manual (Pond et al, 2010)

Guidelines for ethical & effec;ve use of visual media on climate change

•  Clarity -‐ vivid, easily seen and understood •  Credibility -‐ honest, balanced, verifiable •  Engagement -‐ interes4ng and accessible •  Connec4vity -‐ relevant, personal, integrated •  Feasibility -‐ prac4cal, cost-‐effec4ve, replicable

See also more detailed Visualiza4on Code of Ethics

•  Vivid, personally meaningful visual imagery: –  grabs attention, resonates, can

accelerate learning & action –  can be a grassroots DIY tool

•  Moral imperative to use visuals more systematically: –  training and capacity-building for

increased application in practice

•  Professional imperative to do it right: –  adopt ethical principles –  embed in structured, participatory

decision-making processes

Implications for visualizing our futures with climate change

www.calp.forestry.ubc.ca

Future Delta 2.0 educational climate change videogame

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ollOh5xRz3M

UBCO CCT Team

Respondents n=38, valid n=36 Mean: 2.190, Standard Deviation 1.305

User evaluation of interactive Google Earth usage in Kimberley public meeting

Fire-spread mapping: Bob Grey Consulting

Generic Neighbourhood: The Sandbox, by land use

Date post:	13-Nov-2014
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Empowering Communities: Making climate change local and exploring alternative future visions

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