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ENDGAME AFGHANISTAN Series 2: An Advanced Analytics Blueprint for a Negotiated Settlement OCTOBER 2017
ENDGAME AFGHANISTAN Series 2: An Advanced Analytics Blueprint for a Negotiated
Settlement
OCTOBER 2017
Executive Summary
INTRODUCTION
A DECENTRALIZED AND AUTONOMOUS TERRITORIAL AGREEMENT SHORT OF PARTITION MIGHT
OFFSET NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION
SIMULATIONS REVEAL A REDUCTION IN TALIBAN SUPPORT AND INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH AS
MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTORS FOR ENDING THE CONFLICT
1 (Goodson, 2017) 2 (Brown University, 2016) 3 (Apps, 2015) 4 (Collier & Hoeffler, Greed and Grievance in Civil War, 2004) 5 (Index Mundi, 2017)
A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF MOVING BEYOND STALEMATE
SHIFTING THE TRAJECTORY REQUIRES A REGIONAL AGREEMENT AND A NEW CONSTITUTIONAL
PROCESS IN AFGHANISTAN
6 (Collier)
Background
AFGHANISTAN: IS A PEACE AGREEMENT POSSIBLE?
DISCOVERING PATHWAYS TO AN ENDGAME THROUGH ADVANCED ANALYTICS, CLOUD COMPUTING,
AND APPLIED EXPERTISE OF CONFLICT
About giCompute
ANTICIPATING MULTI-STAKEHOLDER ISSUES DRIVEN BY HUMAN FACTORS
7 (Gul, 2016)
A NEW HYBRID MODEL: COMBINING CONJOINT ANALYSIS WITH GAME THEORY-BASED PAYOFF
MODEL
Simulation Results: Strategic Factors Conflict Termination Model
TEN STRATEGIC FACTORS FOR CONFLICT TERMINATION IN AFGHANISTAN
DETERMINING FACTORS AND RANGE OF OPTIONS
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8 (U.S. Central Command, nd)
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Outcome Trajectory
COMPARING CURRENT AND PROJECTED LANDSCAPES
Reliability Testing: Monte Carlo Simulations
Conclusion and Policy Implications
9 giStrat field interviews, Kabul, Afghanistan July 23 – 26th 2017. 10 (Safranchuk, 2017) 11 Ibid. 12 (Reuters, 2017) 13 (Safranchuk, 2017)
