1Energy

A 2030 frameworkfor climate andenergy policies

2

2050 Roadmaps

2030 Green Paper

Proposals for the 2030

framework for climate and energy

policies2011 March 2013 September 2013

The 2030 framework will build on the 2050 Roadmaps- Concrete proposals by the end of 2013

On-going discussions with Member States, EU institutions and stakeholders

3

Increased certainty for Memeber States and

reduce regulatory risks for investors

Growth and jobs through demand for efficient and low carbon technologies

Definition of EU ambitions in view of a

new international climate change agreement

Early agreement on the 2030 framework is essential

4

Improved energy efficinecy

Promotion of new technologies,

growth and jobs

Affordable and competitive prices

Competitiveness

Adequate energy infrastructures

Grid Stability

Diversification of fuels, supply countries and

routes

Security of energy supply

Development of alternative energy

sources

Reduction of energy

consumptions

Reduction of emissions

Sustainability

The 2030 policy framework should take into account lesson learned from the 2020 framework and the economic and political

context of today

The 2030 framework must ensure progress towards three objectives

5

The EU is making good progress towards meeting the 2020 RES target- But most Member States are still some distance away

Renewable sources accounted for 12.7% of the EU's energy consumption in 2010Sour

ce: E

uros

tat Malt

a

Luxem

bourg UK

Netherl

andsCy

prus

Belgi

um*Ire

land

Hunga

ry

Czech

RepGree

cePol

and

Slova

kia Italy

German

y EUFra

nce

Bulga

riaSpa

in

Lithuan

ia

Slove

nia

Denmark

Roman

ia

Eston

ia

Portug

al

Austr

iaFin

landLat

via

Swede

n0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%RES in 2010

2020 RES Target

2020 target for the EU: 20%

6

EU energy consumption is going down, but 2020 target likely to be missed with current policies

projections

Sour

ce: E

urop

ean

Com

miss

ion

7

Increasing concern about energy import dependency and rising energy prices

Stability and costs of renewables support schemes, impacts on the internal energy market, on grid stability and capital allocation

Need for massive investments in energy transmission and distribution infrastructure, e.g. due to renewables expansion

Differences between Member States in improving energy efficiency; implementation of directives

Current large surplus of ETS allowances, resulting in a low carbon price and low investment incentives

Need for coherence of policy instruments

Challenges in meeting 2020 targets - to be considered in the 2030 framework

8

"No Regrets" options from the Energy Roadmap 2050

More Energy Efficiency

More Renewable

s

More infrastructures

9

(1) Energy savings throughout the system are crucial

Current policy initiatives

Decarbonisation scenarios

Gross energy consumption (in Mtoe)

Sour

ce: E

urop

ean

Com

miss

ion

10

The share of renewables is between 28% and 31% in the decarbonisation scenarios.

(2) The share of renewables rises steadily over time

Sour

ce: E

urop

ean

Com

miss

ion

Share of renewables in gross final energy consumption (in %)

11More investments also needed in grid infrastructure, storage, etc.

(3) Large investment for power generation is needed ~ 2.5 trillion Euros up to 2050.

Sour

ce: E

urop

ean

Com

miss

ion

Cumulative investment expenditure for power generation from 2011 to 2050 (in billion €2008)

12

Import dependency falls, especially after 2030 with electification of transport

Current policy initiatives

Decarbonisation scenarios

All decarbonisation scenarios will reduce the EU’s energy import dependency.

Net energy imports (in Mtoe)

Sour

ce: E

urop

ean

Com

miss

ion

13

• Should climate and energy targets be set for 2030? • If so, which ones?Targets

• Which are the most appropriate policy instruments to meet potential new targets for the period up to 2030?

• How can Research and Innovation best support the 2030 framework?

Instruments

• How can EU policies take account of international developments? Eg. Climate negotiations

• How can internationally competitive and affordable energy prices be ensured?

Competitiveness & Security of

Supply• How can an equitable distribution of efforts be

ensured among Member States?• How to best consider the different investment

capacities of industry sectors and consumer groups?Effort Sharing

These are the main issues to be considered for the 2030 framework

14

Electricity prices – the US is increasing its advantage…

OECD Europe, 137.7

USA, 95.9

Japan, 116.2

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q3 2012

Sour

ce: I

EA, E

nerg

y Pr

ices a

nd Ta

xes,

4th

quar

ter 2

012

Evolution of end-user electricity prices for industry, taxes excluded

1515

…in part due to the shale gas boom- US wholesale prices for gas are 3-4 times lower than in the EU

Sour

ce: E

urop

ean

Com

miss

ion

16

End-user electricity prices for households differ substantially between MS

- "non-energy" component is very significant

Sour

ce: E

uros

tat

17

Lower differences between MS for industry end-user prices

Sour

ce: E

uros

tat

18

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

03/2006Green Paper on a future common European

Energy Policy

01/2007Commission proposal for 2020 climate and energy package

12/ 2008Head of State

and Government

reached agreement on the package

06/2011Energy Efficiency Directive

11/2010Commission

Communication on the Energy 2020 Strategy

12/2011Commission

CommunicationEnergy Roadmap 2050

04/2009RES Directive

03/2006Green Paper

2015 Global Climate Change

Agreements

More concrete proposals for the 2030 framework

Window of opportunity

Building on the past towards the future….!

19

Impact Assessment

Assessment of responses to the consultation

Jan.

Commission proposals for the 2030 framework

Feb. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Aug Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.May

22-24 April

22 MayEuropean Council

Adoption of the Green Paperconsultation procedure

Council meetings

Update of reference scenario

Concrete steps towards the 2030 framework in 2013

20

Back up

21* Gross inland consumption minus non-energy uses

1678 Mtoe

- 20% objective

2009

1842 Mtoebusiness as usual 2007

2020

Projections from 2007Projections from 200920% EE objective

1474 MtoePrim

ary

ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion*

, Mto

e

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

2005 2010 2015

GAP

Progress towards the 2020 Energy Savings target

Sour

ce: E

urop

ean

Com

miss

ion

22

The share of renewables rises steadily over time

Sour

ce: E

urop

ean

Com

miss

ion

Share of renewables in primary energy consumption (in %)

23

Retail electricity prices paid by households and industry in 2012

Note: Euro/kWh, first half of 2012, consumption bands DC and IC, all taxes includedSource of data: Eurostat