Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

Scientific

Communications

Policy

There are three challenges relating to climate change

2 Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

(Credit: Reuters)

The scientific challenge:

Observing, understanding, and predicting the behaviour of a complex system


There are a number of natural influences on our climate, operating on different timescales


Examples include:

• Seasonal cycles

• Multi-annual cycles (e.g. El Niño and La Niña which recur every few years)

• Multi-decadal cycles (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which causes shifts in the climate every 20-30 years)

• Multi-century cycles (solar cycles range from the 11 year cycle between sunspot minima and sunspot maxima to much longer Milankovitch cycles related to the Earth’s orbital parameters, most obviously seen in the 100,000 year ice age cycles)

(Credit: Met Office)

Ice core records show a close correlation between past trends in atmospheric CO2 and temperature

Ice core records of temperature change in Antarctica and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the 800,000 years prior to the start of the Twentieth Century (source: graphs NOAA, NCDC, and pictures of ice cores courtesy of Eric Wolff, Cambs)


(Credit: BAS)

(Credit: BAS)

Recent levels of atmospheric CO2 are higher than at any time in the past 800,000 years

6

Records of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past 800,000 years, including the Twentieth Century (source: NOAA, NCDC)


In a warming world we would expect to see consistent trends across the climate system


Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (2013)

Climate observations show clear trends


Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (2013)

The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change report on The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change recently concluded that human emissions were the dominant cause of warming since the mid-Twentieth Century


Global surface temperature anomalies from 1870 to 2010 and the natural (solar, volcanic and internal (here related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation))

and anthropogenic factors (a warming component from greenhouse gases and cooling component from most aerosols) that influence them (Inter-

Governmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

There is increasing confidence that human emissions are increasing the risk of some types of

extreme events

A report by UK and US scientists looking at extreme events in 2012 found that half of the extreme events studied displayed some evidence that human induced climate change was a contributing factor.

USA heatwave, spring 2012 Iberian drought winter 2011/12 Arctic sea ice minimum, autumn 2012

New Zealand rainfall, winter 2011Australian rainfall, summer 2012 Inundation from Hurricane Sandy, autumn 2012

New Zealand rainfall, winter 2011Inundation from Hurricane Sandy,

autumn 2012Australian rainfall, summer 2012


(Credit: Todd Heisler/New York Times)

(Credit: Glyn Baker/CC-BY-SA-2.0) (Credit: NASA)

(Credit: ABC News) (Credit: FNDC) (Credit: US Air Force)

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=HdTsvs0BTfxwlM&tbnid=LTeU1wejDayy7M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130905-extremeweatherandclimateevents.html&ei=g9M5UvTGOYGr0QXxgIHoAQ&bvm=bv.52288139,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNE6kJpzHRuJv5eBULzzy-lZTajCxw&ust=1379607752516607

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=9MnbnRqzlCWgwM&tbnid=AMrtZcQno06LxM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.niwa.co.nz/natural-hazards/extreme-weather-heavy-rainfall&ei=ttQ5UrzgJeiJ0AW_zYHgBA&bvm=bv.52288139,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNHFBaMp_S3_HkRBcVMaaBuNHe7K4Q&ust=1379608055222028

Ecosystems

Food

1.0 – 2.0 billion 1.1 – 3.2 billionAdditional people with increased water stress

Increasing amphibian extinction

About 20 – 30% species at increasingly high risk of extinction

Major extinctions around the globe

Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality

Increased species range shifts and wildfire risk

Terrestrial biosphere tends towards a net carbon source as:

~15% ~40% of ecosystems affected

Crop productivity

Decreases for some cereals

Increases for some cereals

Mid to high latitudes

Low latitudes

All cereals decrease

Decreases in some regions

Temperature above pre-industrial

1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C

Water

0.4 – 1.7 billion

Increased water availability in mid tropics and high latitudes

Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Adapted from IPCC AR4 (2007)

Health

Singular events

0 – 3 million 2 – 15 million

Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases

Local retreat of ice in

Greenland and West Antarctic

Temperature above pre-industrial1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C

About 30% loss of coastal wetlands

Substantial burden on health servicesChanged distribution of some disease vectors

Increased morbidity and mortality from heatwaves, floods and droughts

Long term commitment to

several metres of sea level rise due to

ice sheet loss

Leading to reconfiguration

of coastlines worldwide and inundation of

low lying areas

Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation

Coast Additional people at risk of coastal flooding each year

Increased damage from floods and storms

Adapted from IPCC AR4 (2007)

Future temperature rise depends on cumulative emissions

The findings of the IPCC and implications for science and technology in support of climate change and energy policy13 Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

Source: Met Office, 2013 (adapted from IPCC AR5 (2013))

The communications challenge:

Translating complex science for policy-makers and the public


Source: Poortinga et al (2013)

As far as you know, do you personally think that the world’s climate is changing? (in %)

There is scientific consensus that the climate is changing, but the public is divided

Concern about climate change (in %)Possible Explanations

• Global economic downturn

• Sceptic voices in the media

• Increasing climate fatigue


Communicating complex information is challenging

Mitigation/adaptation, Discount rate, pH, Gigatonnes, Petagrams, Billion tonnes (of carbon, carbon dioxide), PPM, eqCO2, Attribution, Negative emissions, Climate sensitivity, Anthropogenic, Multi-decadal oscillation, Datasets, Urban heat island...

Switch off words….

Excellent in one context, challenging in public engagement!

Visualisation is also a challenge

Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

There are some very big numbers involved...

...and some very small ones

Estimated global carbon emissions in 2012 (from fossil fuels and cement production) close to 10 GtC

Annual global average sea level rise ~3mm yr-1


(Credit: Reuters)

The policy challenge:

Responding to the risks


Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities continue to rise

Annual CO2 emissions from human activities, estimated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (from IPCC, 2013)


Fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions (GtC yr-1)

CO2 has a long atmospheric lifetime

© Crown copyright Met Office

Decay of atmospheric CO2 pulse, as calculated by a range of coupled climate-carbon models (Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)

Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy20 Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

For any given addition (or ‘pulse’) of CO2 to the atmosphere around half is taken up by the land and oceans within a few decades, the other half will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years

100 (GtC)5000 (GtC)

The UK currently produces less than 2% of global emissions

Source: The Carbon Map

Tonnes CO2 per capita


<2%

But looking at historical emissions tells a different story

Source: The Carbon Map

Tonnes CO2 per capita


~6%

Mitigate

Adapt

Suffer

What are the policy responses?


(Credit: Harvey McDaniel)

(Credit: iStockphoto)

(Credit: Reuters)

What do policy makers need to understand?

What are the consequences of unmitigated climate change?

What do the public think?

What are the existing, and new, technological opportunities?


(Credit: TckTckTck)

(Credit: efergy)

(Credit: Capt'Gorgeous/CC-BY-2.0)

A number of key national risks can be expected to increase in likelihood and impact as a result of climate change


More extreme weather could impact on the global supply and price of commodities

The record-breaking heat wave and drought in Russia in 2010 caused extensive wildfires, thousands of deaths, and grain harvest was reduced by 30%.

There were restrictions on grain exports and the global wheat price rose rapidly.

FAO Food Price Index


Risks from climate disruption in other parts of the world may be just as significant for the UK

• The UK is part of a highly interdependent global economic system: Direct investment abroad by UK companies (in 2011) stood at £1.1 trillion. The total level of direct investment in the UK by overseas companies at the end of 2011 was estimated at £766 billion.

• Climate disruption will impact on UK overseas interests, and the flow of natural resources and commodities to the UK

• UK business has strengths and skills that will help with mitigation and adaptation activities overseas, if opportunities are taken.


The policy challenge: Viewing difficult issues through lenses

Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

Parkhill et al, Transforming the Energy System – Public Values, Attitudes and Acceptability, 2013 (UKERC)


(Credit: Thomas Shahan/CC BY-NC-ND-2.0)

Reducing the use of finite resources

Reducing overall levels of energy use

Efficient

Environmental protection

Avoiding waste

Capturing opportunitiesNaturalness and

Nature

Availability and Affordability

Reliability

Safety

Autonomy and Freedom

Choice and Control

Social Justice

Fairness, Honesty & Transparency

Long-term trajectories

Interconnected

Improvement and quality (Source: Cardiff University, 2013)

Energy policy needs to take account of publicvalues


De-carbonisation can bring many co-benefits

• Energy security

• Reduced pollution

• Improved health outcomes

• Reduced fossil fuel import bills

• Reduced risk of energy-related water stress

• Community benefits


(Credit: AP)

(Credit: PD)

www.gov.uk/2050-pathways-analysis

Elec

tric

ity

16 GW nuclear82 GW wind13 GW CCS14 GW solar10 GW marine24 GW back-up gas

75 GW nuclear20 GW wind2 GW CCS2 GW hydro11 GW back-up gas

20 GW nuclear34 GW wind40 GW CCS2 GW hydroNo back-up gas

7.7m SWIs, 8.8m CWIs, 100% house-level heating systems

5.6m SWIs, 6.9m CWIs, 90% house-level heating systems, 10% network-level

5.6m SWIs, 6.9m CWIs, 50% house-level heating systems, 50% network-level

100% ULEVs, high modal shift

80% ULEVs, 20% ICEs, low modal shift

65% ULEVs, 35% ICEs, medium modal shift

461 TWh of bioenergy, high ambition on land mgmt

181 TWh of bioenergy, low ambition on land mgmt

Medium growth, 48% of emissions captured by CCS



471 TWh of bioenergy, medium ambition on land mgmt

33 GW nuclear18 GW wind28 GW CCS27 GW other renew33 GW gas

75% ULEVs, unclear on modal shift

Heating mix of heat pumps, resistive heat, biomass pellets, district heat

Medium growth, over half of emissions captured by CCS

~350 TWh of bioenergy, low ambition on land mgmt

There are different possible scenarios which meet the UK’s legislated emissions reduction targets

Higher renewables; more efficient

Build

ings

Tran

spor

tIn

dust

ryBi

o en

ergy

/ la

nd u

se

CO2

Higher nuclear; less efficient Higher CCS; more bioenergyCost optimised

Energy saving per capita

ElectricityDemand

50% reduction 470 TWh


ElectricityDemand



ElectricityDemand



ElectricityDemand


0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

GW

WIND

NUCLEAR

CO2

CCS


Meeting any one of these scenarios presents challenges

Installed: ~10GW Installed: ~10GW Installed: 0GW

~10GW5,545 turbines

~10GW9 plants

higher renewables scenario

higher nuclear scenario

higher CCS scenario

DE

CC

En

erg

y T

ren

ds

20

13

Dig

est

of

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

en

erg

y st

atis

tics

20

13

Dig

est

of

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

e

ne

rgy

sta

tistic

s 2

01

3

Do we need another Apollo or Manhattan project?

• The challenge is at least as great

• Major projects are required, with funding on a large scale


• However, both had a well-defined single, technological objective

• The objective now is a planetary one and no single roadmap can be drawn

• Need to take the best elements of the approach taken in these projects and apply them to a more complex scenario

(Credit: PD)

(Credit: NASA)

(Credit: NASA)

Climate change: science to policy issues

Challenges and opportunities: high nuclear scenario

Challenges

High nuclear scenario requires 75 GW nuclear on-line by 2050 – more that seven times the current capacity

Requires:

• new sites

• storage solutions

• new technologies

Opportunities

The UK is already a world leader in fusion technologies, and could be at the forefront of developing other new technologies


(Credit: Stacey Peak Media)

Climate change: science to policy issues

Challenges and opportunities: high renewables / high efficiency scenario

Challenges

Renewable technologies need to be cheaper

Scale of wind deployment a real challenge – 82GW is over 16,000 5MW turbines

Take up of electric vehicles is low at present. Needs considerable new supporting infrastructure

Requires significant behaviour change

Opportunities

Energy efficiency can be a win-win, reducing demand = lower emissions and lower fuel bills

High export potential – UK is at the forefront of research in a number of areas, including innovation in wind turbines and next generation solar


(Credit: edupic)

37

Challenges and opportunities: high CCS / high bioenergy scenario

Opportunities

CCS of global interest, allows fossil fuels to continue as part of the energy mix – high export potential

UK is one of the first countries with a full scale test planned - potential first-mover advantage

Bioenergy and CCS together could actually reduce net emissions

Challenges

Full scale CCS remains unproven so far

Land use and sustainability concerns relating to high bioenergy scenario


(Credit: Bellona)

Which ever policy options are adopted there will be a cost, whether now or later….what price a

grandchild?


(Credit: RoHerreraP/CC-BY-2.0)

@uksciencechief

www.bis.gov.uk/go-science

Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected] .

Date post:	09-May-2015
Category:	News & Politics
Upload:	bisforesight
View:	913 times
Download:	1 times

Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

News & Politics