Energy and CO2 intensities over the 19th and 20th centuries:

Sweden versus Spain 

Astrid Kander and M.del Mar Rubio(Univ.Lund, Sweden) (UPF, Barcelona, Spain)

rationale for long time perspective • energy/GDP and CO2/GDP over time:

– Pevious studies find an Environmental Kutznets Curve (EKC)

BUT:• Most studies are based on data from the 1950s

– Our study begans a century earlier, 1850• Previous studies only account for modern energies

– Our study includes traditional forms of energy• The studies focus mostly on industrialised countries

– We compare two rather different countries:• Climate, natural endowment, size and economic development

About the data• Sweden: A.Kander (2002)• Spain:

– Modern energy: C.Sudriá, Carreras and official statistics re-elaborated by M.Rubio

– Traditional energies: • firewood estimates by M.Rubio from public woodlands• Draft animal and human energy: estimates by M.Rubio using cattle and

population official statistics– CO2: M.Rubio estimates based on modern energy data

For comparisons, GDP figures taken from Maddison (2001)

Historical trends in GDP and energy consumption per capita

GDP per habitant (Sweden and Spain 1850-2000, Madison data set)

1.000

10.000

100.000

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1990

Inte

rnat

iona

l Gea

ry-K

ham

is d

olla

rs (l

og)

Sweden GDPpc

Spain GDPpc

Energy consumption per habitant (Sweden and Spain 1850-2000)

10

100

1000

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

GJ/ha

bitant

Sweden Energy/hab

Spain Energy/hab

Sweden aggregate consumption of energy 1830-2002

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

200018

50

1855

1860

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

PJ

gas

heatpower elect

nuclear

hydroelectricity

oil

coal

firewood

draught animals

human

Aggregate energy consumption in Spain 1850-2000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1850

1855

1860

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

PJ

Natural gas

Nuclear

Hidroelectricity

Petroleum

Coal

firewood

draft animals

human energy

Very different compossition of the energy carriers

Spain: Shares of different energy carriers 1850-2000

human energy

draft animals

firewood

Coal

Petroleum

Hidr oelectr icity

Nuclear

gas

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Sweden: shares of different energy carriers 1850-2002

human

draught animals

firewood

coal oil

hydroelectricitynuclear

heatpower elect gas

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Modern vs total energy intensities (Spain and Sweden 1850-2000)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sweden moder n Spain mondern energy intenstiy Sweden total Spain total energy intensity

CO2/energy (Sweden and Spain 1850-2000)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1850

1854

1858

1862

1866

1870

1874

1878

1882

1886

1890

1894

1898

1902

1906

1910

1914

1918

1922

1926

1930

1934

1938

1942

1946

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

gr/M

J SwedenSpain

CO2 intensity (Sweden and Spain 1850-2000)

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1000,0

1200,0

1850

1855

1860

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

g/$

(199

0 pr

ices

)

SwedenSpain

Where to go from here?• Need to find out what explains increases and

decreases in energy intensities:– Technological change?

• May induce increases at the initial stages• As technology improves energy intensity would decline

– Structural change?• Changes accross sectors rather than within sectors• Agriculture>>industry>>services

– A combination of both?