Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market …info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_An...

London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro,

Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg

illuminating the markets

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

Race to refine: An assessment of Latin America’s downstream projects Patricia Garip

Bureau Chief, Latin America

5 September 2013


• Latin America’s current refining landscape

• A growing appetite for refined products

• Greenfield projects, upgrades, expansions

• Brazil’s lead

• China’s growing downstream presence

• Venezuela’s retrenchment

• Outlook

Agenda

Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.


Mexico

1,540 Venezuela

1,310

Ecuador

137

Peru 208

Argentina 660

Chile 220

Curacao 320

Brazil 2,070

(’000 b/d)

Colombia

325

Latin America´s shrinking refining landscape



• LatAm non-OECD oil demand growth lagging Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa

• Economic growth driving oil demand, albeit more slowly ◦ IMF: downward revisions

• Persistent fuel price subsidies distort demand curve

Demand: Upward bound, but not so fast


6.3

6.6

6.9

7.2

7.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

mn b

/d

Source: International Energy Agency


US oil product exports to selected LatAm destinations 2004-2012


0

200

400

600

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

mn b

/d

Argentina Panama Venezuela Colombia Chile Peru Brazil

Source: EIA


US oil products exports to Mexico 2004-2012


200

300

400

500

600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

mn b

/d

Source: EIA


Tightening sulphur limits (ppm)


Country Diesel Gasoline

Argentina 10 (Grade 3); 500 urban, 1,500 rural (Grade 2)

50 (97-octane) 150 (93-octane)

Brazil 10 800, moving to 50 in 2014

Chile 15 in Santiago; 30 in rest of Chile 15 nationwide in Sept 2013

15

Colombia 50 300

Ecuador 500 250 in 2014

150 (90-octane) 600 (87-octane)

Mexico 15 80

Peru 50 in Lima/Callao 2,000 in rest of Peru

1,000 50 in 2015

Uruguay 50 30


US Gulf Coast prices for conventional gasoline and diesel


0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan-03 Feb-05 Apr-07 May-09 Jul-11 Aug-13

¢/U

SG

Conv Unl Ultra low sulfur dsl

Source: Argus Media


Country Company Refinery Capacity ('000 b/d)

Estimated start date

Brazil Petrobras/PdV Abreu e Lima 230 Nov

2014/May2015

Petrobras Comperj (1) 165 Aug-16

Petrobras Comperj (2) 300 2018

Petrobras Premium 1 (1) 300 2018

Petrobras Premium 1 (2) 300 2021

Petrobras Premium 2 300 Post 2018

Colombia Llanopetrol Meta 40 2014/15

Cuba PdV-Cupet Matanzas 150 ?

Ecuador PetroEcuador/ CNPC/PdV

Pacific 300 2017

Mexico Pemex Bicentennial 250 2017

Nicaragua Albanisa (PdV-Petronic)

Supreme Dream of Bolivar

100 2021

Nearly 2.5mn b/d in greenfield plans



Selected expansions and upgrades


Country Company Refinery Expansion/Upgrade (‘000 b/d) Start-up

Uruguay Ancap La Teja Gasoline and diesel desulfurization units

2013

Colombia Ecopetrol Reficar 80 to 165 2014

Ecuador PetroEcuador Esmeraldas New FCC, crude, vacuum and visbreaking units

2014

Bolivia YPFB Cochabamba,

Santa Cruz New CDUs 2014

Costa Rica Recope/CNPC Limon 25 to 60 2015

Colombia Ecopetrol Barrancabermeja 245 to 300 2017

Trinidad Petrotrin Point Fortin 160 to 200 ?

Jamaica PCJ/PdV Kingston 30 to 50 ?

Peru Petroperu Talara 62 to 95 ?

Cuba PdV/Cupet Cienfuegos 65 to 150 ?


• Abreu e Lima, 230,000 b/d • PdV stake discarded?

• Nov 2014/May 2015

• Comperj 1, 165,000 b/d, 2016

• Comperj 2, 300,000 b/d, 2018

• Preliminary Asian partnerships for Premium refineries

◦ 600,000 b/d Premium 1 with

Sinopec, two stages , 1st 2017

◦ 300,000 b/d Premium 2 with GS Energy, 1st 2017

Petrobras refineries under construction, planned


Abreu e Lima

Comperj 1-2

Brasilia

Premium 1

Premium 2

Planned refinery

Refinery under

construction


Brazil refined product imports 2003-2012


0

30

60

90

120

2003 2006 2009 2012

b/d

Source: ANP

Total refined products Gasoline Diesel


• 300,000 b/d in 2017

• PetroEcuador/PdV/CNPC

• Two phases

• ICBC financing

• Oil-backed loans

Ecuador: Pacific refinery


Quito

Manta

Montecristi

Planned refinery


• 25,000 b/d to 65,000 b/d

• Soresco: Recope-CNPC

• Questions over costs,

contracting

• Chance for project revival

under new Recope

management?

• Elections loom

Costa Rica: Limon refinery


San Jose Limon

Planned refinery


• 62,000 b/d to 95,000 b/d

• To be financed by PetroPeru

share sale

• “Restoration” of PetroPeru

• Vertical integration

• La Pampilla upgrade?

Peru: Talara refinery


Lima

Talara

La Pampilla

Planned refinery

Refinery


• Cartagena (Reficar)

80,000 b/d to 165,000

b/d, +80pc complete

• Delayed on labor strife

• Barrancabermeja

upgrade

• Meta refinery?

Colombia


Bogota

Barrancabermeja

Cartagena

Meta

Planned refinery

Refinery under

construction


Chinese downstream presence rising, with limits


Costa Rica

Ecuador

Brazil

Venezuela

Cuba

Aruba?


Venezuelan presence receding


Ecuador

Jamaica

Curacao?

Brazil

Nicaragua

Dominican

Republic


• Bicentennial Pemex

• Supreme Dream

Nicaragua

• Argentina, Cuba,

Paraguay, Uruguay

Refinery orphans?



Latin America oil imports: upward bound


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

mn b

/d

Source: www.eia.gov

Regional liquids consumption

Mexico/Chile Brazil Other Central and South America


Politics

Cost overruns

Financing Lack of

Commercial logic

Labor strife

Reflections

• Delays, downsizing, quiet

fading

• Brazil is an exception

• Venezuela’s withdrawal

accelerating refining deficit

• Chinese presence poised to

grow, with limits

• Financing challenges

• Biofuels

• LNG

• Product imports set to rise

• Brazil as products exporter?


?


Argus Media


London

Houston

Washington

New York

Portland

Calgary

Santiago

Bogota

Rio de Janeiro

Singapore

Beijing

Tokyo

Sydney

Dubai

Moscow

Astana

Kiev

Porto

Johannesburg

illuminating the markets Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

Any questions?

Patricia Garip

Bureau Chief, Latin America

Email: [email protected]

Phone: +56 22 243 6239

Cel: +56 99 2890089

URL: www.argusmedia.com

Copyright notice

Copyright © 2013 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. All intellectual property rights in this presentation and the information herein are the exclusive property of Argus and and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence

from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this presentation you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any

form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus.

Trademark notice

ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, FMB, DeWitt, ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Ltd. Visit www.argusmedia.com/trademarks for more information.

Disclaimer

All data and other information presented (the “Data”) are provided on an “as is” basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any

particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party’s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law.

Date post:	01-Oct-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	phamthuy
View:	213 times
Download:	0 times

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market …info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_An...

Documents