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Energy and Markets Newsletter 112811

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November 28, 2011 Energy Data Highlights Crude oil futures price 11/23/2011: $96.17/bbl down$6.42 from week earlier up$14.92 from year earlier Natural gas futures price 11/23/2011: $3.460/mmBtu up$0.016 from week earlier down$0.804 from year earlier Retail heating oil price 11/21/2011: $3.935 /gal down$0.007 from week earlier up$0.825 from year earlier Natural gas inventories 11/18/2011: 3,852 Bcf up9 Bcf from week earlier up23 Bcf from year earlier Crude oil inventories 11/18/2011: 330.8 mmbbl down6.2 mmbbl from week earlier down27.8 mmbbl from year earlier Natural Gas/ Power News EIA Storage Release 1 1/23/11 (Ac tual): +9 Bcf Previous Week: +19 Bcf +0.6% Change from 1 Year Ago +6.4% Change 5-year Average Natural-Gas Find Boosted Off Southeast Africa Anadarko Petroleum Corp. doubled its estimates Monday for gas reserves offshore Mozambique, further evidence of huge gas deposits lying off southeast Africa. Its Barquentine-3 appraisal well "encountered more than 662 net feet (202 meters) of natural gas pay, expanding the estimated recoverable resource range from 15 to more than 30 trillion cubic feet," Houston-based Anadarko said in a statement. Follow
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November 28,2011

Energy Data Highlights

Crude oil futures price11/23/2011: $96.17/bbldown$6.42 from week earlierup$14.92 from year earlier

Natural gas futures price11/23/2011: $3.460/mmBtuup$0.016 from week earlierdown$0.804 from year earlier

Retail heating oil price11/21/2011: $3.935 /galdown$0.007 from week earlierup$0.825 from year earlier

Natural gas inventories

11/18/2011: 3,852 Bcf up9 Bcf from week earlierup23 Bcf from year earlier

Crude oil inventories11/18/2011: 330.8 mmbbldown6.2 mmbbl from week earlierdown27.8 mmbbl from year earlier

Natural Gas/ Power News

EIA Storage Release 11/23/11 (Actual): +9 Bcf Previous Week: +19 Bcf +0.6% Change from 1 Year Ago+6.4% Change 5-year Average

Natural-Gas Find Boosted Off Southeast AfricaAnadarko Petroleum Corp. doubled its estimates Monday for gas reserves offshoreMozambique, further evidence of huge gas deposits lying off southeast Africa. ItsBarquentine-3 appraisal well "encountered more than 662 net feet (202 meters) of natural gas pay, expanding the estimated recoverable resource range from 15 to

more than 30 trillion cubic feet," Houston-based Anadarko said in a statement.

Follow

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"The positive results of each appraisal well we have drilled and analyzed havecontinued to increase our estimate of recoverable resources and natural gas inplace on our block, and add to our confidence that this could be one of the mostimportant natural gas fields discovered in the last 10 years," Anadarko Chairmanand CEO Jim Hackett said.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020393560457706579183822006

0.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection 

Anadarko doubles estimates for Mozambique findAnadarko Petroleum, the US oil and gas independent, has more than doubled the

estimated size of its biggest natural gas discovery, located off the coast of 

Mozambique. “This could be one of the most important natural gasfields

discovered in the last 10 years,’’ Jim Hackett, Anadarko’s chief executive, told the

Financial Times. Mr Hackett said the Barquentine-3 appraisal well encountered

more than 662 net feet of natural gas. That expanded the estimated recoverable

resource range from 15,000bn-30,000bn cubic feet of natural gas to an estimated

30,000bn-50,000bn cubic feet. It made its initial discovery of the field in February

2010. Anadarko has not released how much it plans to invest but the size of thefind indicates it could easily surpass $10bn over the life of the field. “There is no

question this will be a commercial project,’’ Mr Hackett said.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ff4258dc-1950-11e1-92d8-

00144feabdc0.html#axzz1f09CFJtt 

Natural-Gas Prices Buoyed by Cooler Weather Natural-gas prices finished higher, buoyed by cooling weather and anticipation of 

falling inventories. A smaller-than-expected increase in natural-gas stockpiles

reported earlier this week has raised expectations that the record supply of gas instorage soon could begin to shrink. Meanwhile, the recent bout of mild weather is

beginning to give way to falling temperatures across the U.S., offering

expectations that gas-fired heating demand will rise. "Weather forecasts emerged

with greater aggregate heating demand over the next 15 days. No surprise there

as we nudge toward December," Pax Saunders, an analyst at Gelber & Associates,

said in a research report.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020445210457706055412615924

4.html?mod=WSJ_Commodities_LEFTTopNews 

 America's New Deal for Global Energy Mix In 1973, Richard Nixon, in the teeth of the Arab oil embargo, pledged that the U.S.would achieve energy independence within seven years. Like his presidency, thatdidn't quite work out. Net imports provided 35% of U.S. oil in 1973. Seven yearslater, they supplied 37%, and by 2005, 60%. Now, that trend is reversing fast. Inthe 12 months ended in August, net imports met just 46% of oil demand. Similarly,net imports of natural gas climbed from 4% of consumption in 1973 to a peak of more than 16% in 2007, but were back under 9% in the year ended in August... Innatural gas, the opening of shale resources has caused excess supply andcratered prices. Despite calls to use more natural gas, demand hasn't caught up.

 That is why the likes of Cheniere Energy now want to liquefy and export natural

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gas to cash in on the spread between low U.S. prices and much higher Europeanand Asian ones. Capturing the benefit of this price difference will be a centralbattle in the natural-gas market over the next decade. Exports of natural gaswould tighten domestic supply, raising prices. That is risky politically. Michael Leviat the Council on Foreign Relations reckons those benefiting from the natural-gasglut—mainly utilities, petrochemical companies and heating consumers—are more

organized politically than natural-gas producers and exporters. The argument thatgas should be exported not in its raw form but as an input to American-madegoods will be tough to ignore.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203764804577060443747706490.html?mod=WSJ_Commodities_LEFTTopNews 

The Non-Green Jobs Boom

So President Obama was right all along. Domestic energy production really is apath to prosperity and new job creation. His mistake was predicting that thosenew jobs would be "green," when the real employment boom is taking place in oil

and gas. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported recently that the U.S. jobless rateremains a dreadful 9%. But look more closely at the data and you can see whichindustries are bucking the jobless trend. One is oil and gas production, which nowemploys some 440,000 workers, an 80% increase, or 200,000 more jobs, since2003. Oil and gas jobs account for more than one in five of all net new private jobsin that period. The ironies here are richer than the shale deposits in NorthDakota's Bakken formation. While Washington has tried to force-feed renewableenergy with tens of billions in special subsidies, oil and gas production hasboomed thanks to private investment. And while renewable technologybreakthroughs never seem to arrive, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturinghave revolutionized oil and gas extraction—with no Energy Department loanguarantees needed. The oil and gas rush has led to a jobs boom. North Dakota has

the nation's lowest jobless rate, at 3.5%, and the state now has some 200 rigspumping 440,000 barrels of oil a day, four times the amount in 2006. The statereports more than 16,000 current job openings, and places like Williston havebecome meccas for workers seeking jobs that often pay more than $100,000 ayear.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020419070457702451008726107

8.html?KEYWORDS=keystone+pipeline 

Troubled Tepco Sells Assets to Raise $2.5 Billion Tokyo Electric Power Co. unveiled plans Monday to sell shares in other companiesfor about $2.5 billion as the troubled utility at the heart of the Fukushima Daiichi

nuclear disaster seeks to shore up its finances. In by far the largest deal, Tepcosaid after the close of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Monday that it will sell its entirestake—more than 10%—in mobile telecommunications company KDDI Corp. for¥521,000 (about $6,700) per share, the stock's closing price in Tokyo, raisingabout ¥186.28 billion, or $2.4 billion.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203802204577065791945545000.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection 

Green/ Alternative Energy News

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Myhrvold: Subsidies Stymie Wind, Solar Innovation

 This month, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched a formal investigation

into complaints, lodged by the U.S. solar-cell manufacturers, that the government

of China is funneling loan guarantees, grants and subsidies to its solar-cell

companies. Apparently, the Commerce Department is shocked, shocked to learn

that a government would subsidize the solar industry. A few days later, the New

 York Times described a “gold rush” under way in the U.S. as builders of wind and

solar farms cash in on grants and loan guarantees offered by both the federal

government and various states. These incentives effectively allow players at every

level of the renewable-energy industry to lock in profits of 10 percent to 30

percent a year for the 20- to 30-year life of their plants -- not bad considering 10-

year Treasury bonds are paying only 2 percent. Both of these developments are

symptoms of a larger problem with the world’s current approach to renewable

energy. The range of prospects being tried now is dizzying -- from high-tech

windmills to biofuels, from corn to algae, from silicon photovoltaic cells to boilers

heated by thousands of reflected sunbeams. But they all share one thing thatmakes them appealing to investors: taxpayer dollars. One of the ugly secrets of 

the renewable-energy industry is that its products make no economic sense unless

they are highly subsidized.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-27/energy-subsidies-stymie-wind-solar-

innovation-nathan-myhrvold.html 

China Aims to Sell 5 Million Alternative-Energy Vehicles by 2020

China aims to sell 5 million alternative-energy vehicles by 2020, the AnhuiEconomic and Information Technology Commission said on its website, citing a

work meeting organized by the industry ministry. The country also plans to have

cumulative sales of half a million electric and hybrid cars by 2015, the commission

said on its website.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/china-aims-to-sell-5-million-

alternative-energy-vehicles-by-2020.html 

Crude Oil News

OPEC Daily Basket Price 11/25/2011- $107.73

(OPEC Daily Basket Price 11/24/2011- $108.10)

Oil Climbs to Highest in More Than a Week on U.S. Sales, Syrian

Sanctions

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Oil rose above $100 a barrel in New York for the first time in more than a week on

signs of economic recovery in the U.S., while sanctions on Syria stoked concern

Middle East crude supplies may be threatened. Futures advanced a second day,

gaining as much as 4.1 percent. U.S. retail sales during Thanksgiving climbed 16

percent to a record. The Arab League imposed sanctions on Syria after the country

refused to halt a crackdown on protesters. The country produced an average of 332,000 barrels of crude a day in August, according to the International Energy

Agency. “We’re likely to see Brent back up to $115 by year-end,” Christopher

Bellew, a senior broker at Bache Jefferies Ltd. in London. “Prices will be supported

by colder weather, declining inventories and a positive start to the U.S. shopping

season. But Chinese demand remains enigmatic, and the stronger dollar will be a

negative influence.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/oil-climbs-to-highest-in-more-than-a-

week-on-u-s-sales-syrian-sanctions.html 

U.S. Crude Oil Rises Above $100 On Supply Worries

Oil rose sharply on Monday with U.S. crude futures climbing above $100 per barrelas concerns of a supply disruption from the Middle East overshadowed worriesover oil demand growth and a worsening economic outlook for the euro zone.Markets got an early boost from a report suggesting the International MonetaryFund was preparing a 600 billion euro ($800 billion) rescue plan for Italy. Oil heldon to its gains even after the IMF said it was not in any discussion with Italianauthorities on a financing plan due to a weaker dollar and supply worries.http://www.cnbc.com/id/45455564 

Spill Casts Pall Over Brazil Oil PatchAn oil leak at a Chevron Corp. deep-water well off the Rio de Janeiro coast this

month has provoked local outrage and investigations of the U.S. company. It also

has become a messy reminder that Brazil's bid to reach prosperity through oil may

be costlier—and more challenging—than many here expected. The early

November leak at Brazil's Frade oil field was plugged successfully after spewing

2,400 barrels of crude into the sea—a fraction of the estimated 4.9 million barrels

that gushed into Gulf of Mexico last year when the Deepwater Horizon rig

exploded at a BP PLC well. In Brazil's case, an oil slick isn't likely to reach the

shores, local officials say, and the shiny stain it produced on the ocean surface isdissipating.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020376480457705998353752110

6.html?mod=WSJ_Commodities_LEFTTopNews 

EU oil import costs soar above $400bn The European Union’s oil import costs have soared to more than $400bn this yearas crude prices continue to trade above $100 a barrel, heightening concernsabout their impact on the region’s economy, the International Energy Agency has

warned. The high prices are putting “an additional burden on recovery efforts,”

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Precipitation

8 to 14 Day Outlooks Temperature

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Precipitation

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