Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility - AVL1... · 2018. 7. 13. · CV PC Diesel PC...

Energy and Powertrains

for sustainable Mobility

Dr. Rolf Leonhard

Robert Bosch GmbH

13th International AVL Symposium on Propulsion Diagnostics

Baden-Baden, June 26-27, 2018

Greenhouse gas targets

Sustainable energy and powertrains

Electrofuels, eFuels

De-Fossilisation scenarios

Conclusions

Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility

Rolf Leonhard | 26.06.2018

© Robert Bosch GmbH 2018. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.2

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions



GHG reductions - not to exceed 2oC global warming

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

An agreed target since UN Climate Change Summit, Copenhagen 2009

Source: M. Meinshausen, based on UNEP Human Development Report 2009

Gre

en

ho

use

Ga

s E

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

O2eq

/yr)

-50%

Wo

rld

vs 1

99

0

-85%

Ind

ustr

ialize

d

Co

un

trie

s

-80 .. -95%

Status worldEU Commission/EDGAR

Target Emerging

Countries

Target World

Target Industrialized

Countries

Best guess: +2.7o

Climate Action Tracker

11.2015

-30%

-75%-55%





Conclusions




Energy and Powetrains for sustainable Mobility



BatteryE-Drive

Technology options

Regarded as ‚the‘ future mobility option

Zero emission, best efficiency

Cost penalty due to battery

Driving range and top speed handicap

Insufficient coverage and business

models for charging infrastructure

Will plugged mobility the one and only solution in future?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Navigation

Aviation

Rail

CV

MC&PC

ExxonMobile 2014

BP 2014

Road

CO2 target

CO2 Mobility Scenarios


Transport emissions ww


Source: Shell Mountains Scenarios 2013; *ExxonMobile 2014, BP 2014

Gt CO2/yr, tank to wheel

Efficiency measures and plugged cars not sufficient – 100% plugged road traffic?

+70% km-40% CO2/km

+135% tkm-40% CO2/tkm

CO2 target acc. to

world GHG target

+200% km-30% CO2/tkm

Electric driving share PC (% km): 5 20 40 60 traffic increase*

PT efficiency

CO2 Mobility Scenarios


Transport emissions in/from Germany, wtw


0

50

100

150

200

250

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Navigation

Aviation

Rail

CV

PC Diesel

PC Gasoline

Motorcycles

Total

Road

MC&PC

CO2 target

Source 1960-2030: IFEU, Tremod 5.3, IEA (Navigation)

mio t CO2 whell to wheel

+13% km-39% CO2/km

+60% km-20% CO2/km

+100% km-20% CO2/km

acc. to GHG target

for industr. countries

traffic increase*PT efficiency

Efficiency measures and plugged cars not sufficient

German ‘Energiewende‘



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Total

Fossil

RE electricitydemand

EEG17

RE share

Source: Federal Environment Agency, UBA

+600% Renewable electricity demand vs today even with high efficiency achievements

Status and targets

Pri

mary

energ

y

Energy Concept of German Government 2010;

Nuclear Exit in 2022 decided 2011

-40% GHG

vs 1990

-55%

-70%

-80% ..-95%

-20% vs 2008

-50%

Extension plan for RE electricity (EEG17)

TWh

German ‘Energiewende‘



+600% Renewable electricity from photovoltaic and wind

Status and targetsSource: Federal Environment Agency, UBA, 10.2017

Capacity installed (GW) Electricity produced (TWh)

x5 x7

Actual extension plan for RE electricity (EEG17)

Battery Electric Vehicles


Charging in urban areas


Concept and

design by

M. Bargende

Battery Electric Vehicles


© Robert Bosch GmbH 2018. Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch bzgl. jeder Verfügung, Verwertung, Reproduktion, Bearbeitung, Weitergabe sowie für den Fall von Schutzrechtsanmeldungen.

Assessment of critical raw materials for BEV’s

13

Source: Federal Environment Agency, UBA-FB 002316, 2016

Phosphor

Gold

Titanium

Chromium

Indium PGMTantalumSilver

CopperZirconTellurium

ManganesLithiumMolybdenum

Ferric

AluminiumNickel

MagnesiumCobaltRare earth

PGM: Platinum-group metals




BatteryE-Drive

Technology options

More reasons to keep mobility unplugged .. Relieve to electric grid, permanent RE power demand and electricity prices

by decoupling of energy generation and transport

.. Long distance and heavy good transport

.. Multiple mode usage of cars

But how to get sustainable and staying unplugged?










Battery

IC-Engine

E-Drive

Biomass

Vegetable oils,

Ethanol

Vegetable garbage,

Alga

Technology options

Increasing share up to 10% in 2020

acc. to EU regulation

Main CO2-effect until 2040

beyond efficiency measures

Limited volume potential

Fuel vs food dilemma







Energy and Poertrains for sustainable Mobility



Battery

IC-Engine

E-Drive

Biomass

Vegetable oils,

Ethanol

Vegetable garbage,

Alga

Fuel Cell

O2 + 2H2 2H2O

Technology options

Zero emission, high efficiency

Decoupling of energy generation and

consumption is driver for ‚H2-society‘

in Japan

High vehicle oncosts

Lack of H2-infrastructure




Battery

IC-Engine

E-Drive

Biomass

Vegetable oils,

Ethanol

Vegetable garbage,

Alga

Fuel Cell

O2 + 2H2 2H2O

Technology options

H2

CO2 + 3H2 H2O + CH3OH

CO2 + 4H2 2H2O + CH4

CO2 + 3nH2 2nH2O + (CH2)n

Electrofuels, eFuels PtF, PtG, PtL

CO2-Recycling (Technical Photosynthesis)

PtF, PtG, PtL: Power to Fuel, Gas, Liquid





Conclusions




Electrofuels



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

PtL

Co

nve

rsio

ne

ffic

ien

cy

System efficiency of water electrolysis

11.8 kWh/kg fuel / ηPtL = 3/7 * 33.33 kWh/kg H2 * 1/ ηelectrolysis + 22/7* 0.14 kWh/kg CO2 * 1/ ηCO2-capture + 22/7 * 0.5 kWh/kg fuel

Overall chemical reaction: 3 H2O + CO2 = - CH2 - + 3/2 O2 + 2 H2O

Mass balance: 3/7 kg H2 + 22/7 kg CO2 = 1 kg fuel + 24/7 kg O2 + 18/7 kg H2O

Source: A. Jess et alii,

CIT 2011, 83, No. 11

Power to Liquid – PtL efficiency

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

PtL

co

st

(€/ 10

kW

h)

Electricity cost (€ct/kWh el.)

Electrofuels


Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Europe GmbH:

0,99€/l, ηPtL=65%, CO2 ex biogas

Engine Congress, Baden-Baden 02.2017


Power to Liquid, PtL cost w/o taxes

Invest (η PtL=50%): 3.4 mio€/Mwfuel

Start-up & closing cost: 20% of invest

Utilization: 5,000 h/a, 25 years

Capital costs: 7,5%

Maintenance, insurance: 4% p.a. of invest

w/o taxes

Based on data from A. Jess et alii, CIT 2011, 83, No. 11; T. Smolinka et alii, Fraunhofer ISE, FCBAT 2011; A. Voß IER Uni Stuttgart, 2008, W. Maus, 2010 and 2012

Sunfire GmbH, Dresden: 0,95€/l, ηPtL=68%, CO2 captured from biogas

Fraunhofer Tagung Energie, Dresden 05.2013

Electrofuels



Power to Liquid, PtL cost w/o taxes

180

230

310

460

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

PtL

co

st

(€/ 10

kW

h)

Power cost (€ct/kWh el.)

Vision Import 2050 2050 Germany 2015

FVV* 1086-2016: RENEWABLES IN TRANSPORT 2050

Expertise by Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH

Based on data from A. Jess et alii, CIT 2011, 83, No. 11; T. Smolinka et alii, Fraunhofer ISE, FCBAT 2011; A. Voß IER Uni Stuttgart, 2008, W. Maus, 2010 and 2012

t.o. CO2 air capture cost: €/t

4.000 6.0

00

4.0

00Sunfire

4.0

00 h

/a

*FVV Forschungvereinigung Verbrennungskraftmaschinen e.V.

Research association for combustion engines

Invest (η PtL=50%): 3.4 mio€/Mwfuel

Start-up & closing cost: 20% of invest

Utilization: 5,000 h/a, 25 years

Capital costs: 7,5%

Maintenance, insurance: 4% p.a. of invest

w/o taxes

Fraunhofer, IWES, August 2017: Potentiale

von PtL- und H2-Importen, direct air capture

Prognos AG 30.09.2017





Conclusions




Energy shares and CO2-intensity of energy

79%

65%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

En

erg

y s

ha

res

De-Fossilization Scenarios


© Robert Bosch GmbH 2017. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.23

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

CO

2-I

nte

nsity,

wtw

(g/k

Wh

)

Fossil fuels/Total fuels

Biofuels

Fossil fuels/Total energy

Fossil fuels

Electricity mix


© Robert Bosch GmbH 2017. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.24

De-Fossilzation ScenariosEffect of vehicle and energy measures on total CO2, wtw

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Vehic

leenerg

ydem

and

per

km

Powertrain

ICE

Powertrain

BEV

ICE: Internal Combustion Engine

BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle

incl. electric driven Plug-in Hybrids

Efficieny effects

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

CO

2-e

mis

sio

n, w

tw

Energy-mix

Energy-mix effects

CO2 targets to be achieved by combined vehicle and energy measures

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

CO

2-e

mis

sio

n, w

tw

@constant mileage

Car fleet CO2

BEV

only

Measures

combined

Measures

w/o BEV

Electricity

Shell Pkw-Szenarien

Alternativszenario, 2014




Energy split for 85% CO2 reduction wtw

e-Fuel El. PowerFossil fuel Biofuel

2010 2060

Energy

consumption

Primary

energy

-60 %

-50 %

420 TWh

500 TWh

170 TWh

250 TWh

fp = primary energy factor1,33

fp=2,01,16

FVV 11.2015:

2050: 70 - 220 TWh

Shell 2014:

2040: 210 TWh

Fossil fuel demand:

-88%

Electric power demand:

175 TWh

@constant mileage




Powertrain forecasts @Stuttgart Symposium 14.03.2017

2 4

10

0,57

17

38

98 103 104

88,593 90

76

89

100107 114

2015 2020 2025 2030

High forecast uncertainty requires dual strategies

ZEVmax

ZEVmin

ICEmax

ICEmin

TotalMio new released cars

ZEV: Zero Emission Vehicle,

ICE Internal Combustion Engine

Forecast @

Stuttgarter Symposium 2018:

ZEV 2030: 15 .. 35%




Battery

IC-Engine

E-Drive

Biomass

Vegetable oils,

Ethanol

Vegetable garbage,

Alga

Fuel Cell

O2 + 2H2 2H2O

Technology options and share 2050 in energy consumption

H2

CO2 + 3H2 H2O + CH3OH

CO2 + 4H2 2H2O + CH4

CO2 + 3nH2 2nH2O + (CH2)n

Electrofuels, eFuels PtF, PtG, PtL

CO2-Recycling (Technical Photosynthesis)

PtF, PtG, PtL: Power to Fuel, Gas, Liquid

30%

10%

10%

50%

Energy and Powertrains

for sustainable Mobility

Dr. Rolf Leonhard

Robert Bosch GmbH

A balanced mix of different drivetrains powered by renewable

energy will be the optimum from an economical, ecological and

social point of view.

13th International AVL Symposium on Propulsion Diagnostics

Baden-Baden, June 26-27, 2018

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