Energy at IIASA · Nakicenovic. 2014 #2. Energy, Climate and Sustainability. Building on Past...

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Energy at IIASAOverview & Highlights

Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director General and Deputy CEOInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisProfessor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

UK Panel VisitIIASA, Laxenburg – 11-12 December 2014

2014 #2Nakicenovic

Energy, Climate and SustainabilityBuilding on Past Successes

1981 19981978 1986

Presenter

Presentation Notes

1976 IIASA scientists warn the world about the dangers of climate change and suggest pioneering solutions such as capturing and storing carbon. IIASA was one of only two institutions worldwide that by the mid-1970s already had an established research program on climate change and policy. 1981 IIASA publishes the first comprehensive, truly global assessments of energy issues resulting in the internationally acclaimed report: Energy in a Finite World. 1994 IIASA’s Regional Acidification Information and Simulation (RAINS) model underpins the agreement of 33 European governments to reduce the damaging emissions of sulphur dioxide. 2000 IIASA scientists and models play a leading role in preparing the most comprehensive and sophisticated scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions for the 21st century. The work is published as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Cambridge University Press in 2000. 2010 More than 80 countries have used an IIASA analytical tool, MESSAGE, to find cost-effective approaches to meeting future energy needs working with IAEA.

2014 #3Nakicenovic

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

2014 #4Nakicenovic

Co-President:Ged Davis, President, Forescene S. A. (2007-2012)

Council Members:1. Ged Davis, President, Forescene S. A. (2007-2012)2. Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (2009-2012)3. Robert T Watson, (formerly) Chief Scientist, UK Department for Environment,

Food and Rural Affairs, and Director of Strategic Development at Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia (2007-2012)

Convening Lead Author:1. Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York

UK Contributions to GEA

2014 #5Nakicenovic

Authors:1. Jennie Barron, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)2. Brenda Boardman, Environmental Change Institute (ECI),

Oxford University and UK Energy Research Centre3. Ian Bryden, University of Edinburgh4. Daniel Curtis, Environmental Change Institute,

Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford 5. John Davison, IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme6. Nick J. Eyre, University of Oxford7. Ian Fairlie, Consultant8. David Fisk, Imperial College London 9. Kevin Hicks, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) at York, University of York10. Morna Isaac, Eco Ltd 11. Kathryn Janda, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University 12. James Keirstead, Imperial College London13. Catherine Mitchell, University of Exeter


2014 #6Nakicenovic

Authors:14. Victoria Novikova, Oxford University Centre for the Environment,

Environmental Change Institute15. David Satterthwaite, International Institute for Environment

and Development (IIED)16. Nilay Shah, Engineering for Sustainable Development,

Imperial College 17. Adrian Smith, University of Sussex18. Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, Department of Politics and International Relations,

University of Oxford19. Julia Steinberger, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment20. Alice Sverdlik, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)21. Richard Taylor, International Hydropower Association22. Harry Vallack, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) at York23. Jim Watson, Imperial College in Engineering for Sustainable Development 24. Paul Wilkinson, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine25. Charlie Wilson, University East Anglia Tyndall Centre and IIASA 26. Iain Wright, BP International


2014 #7Nakicenovic

Reviewers:1. Geoff Dutton, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory2. Peter Fraenkel, Marine Current Turbines Ltd3. Antony Froggatt, Chatham House4. Michael Grubb, Cambridge University5. Steven Hunt, Practical Action Consulting6. Michael Jefferson, London Metropolitan Business School7. Ilkka Keppo, University College London8. Walt Patterson, Chatham House9. Teodoro Sanchez, Practical Action10. Jim Skea, UK Energy Research Centre11. Andrew Stirling, University of Sussex


Launch 30.11.2012Ged Davis, Forescene S. A.Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASAChris Llewellyn Smith, Oxford Lisa Emberson, YorkDavid Satterthwaite, IIEDMichael Liebreich, Bloomberg

2014 #8Nakicenovic

GEA Presentation to UNSG

2014 #9Nakicenovic

Energy Access

Energy Security

Climate Change

The Key Energy Challenges

Air PollutionHealth Impacts

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The Energy Program aims to identify viable policy mechanisms, leverages, and technology portfolios that would permit the transformation of the present energy system to a more sustainable one. The following list of key challenges in the transition toward a sustainable energy future are explicitly analyzed in the research of the Energy Program: Providing universal access to affordable clean cooking and electricity for the poor Improving energy security throughout the World Limiting air pollution and health damages from energy use Limiting climate change

2014 #10Nakicenovic

Two Faces of the Athropocene

>3 billion without access to clean cooking1.5 billion without access to electricity


Internet Router Density(sample of 564,521 routers)

Data: Mark Crovella, Boston University, 2007

2014 #12Nakicenovic

Mapping Energy AccessFinal energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density


2014 #13Nakicenovic

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3

GEA approach:Emissions inventories (GAINS)Present and planned legislation (GAINS-MESSAGE)Energy system changes and climate-pollution policies (MESSAGE)Atmospheric concentrations and dispersion (TM5/JRC)

SO2, NOx and PM2.5 Concentrations2005

WHO health guidelines

2014 #14Nakicenovic

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3

Stringent pollution/access/climate policies by 2030

~2.6 million lives saved each year

Policies can contribute toward reaching WHO guidelines

GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, 2013)

(e)

2014 #15Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

MicrochipCommercial

aviation

television

Vacuum tubeOtto engine

Electric engineSteam

engine

Nuclear-energy

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution

2014 #16Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway

Presenter

Presentation Notes

WEU + EEU – 31% (other RE + bio); 26% other RE, 5.5 % biomass

2014 #17Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS

Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway

2014 #18Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200BaselineGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Source: Fricko et al, 2014

Global Water WithdrawalsA Transformational Pathway

2014 #19Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goals●Universal Access to Modern Energy

●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

2014 #20Nakicenovic Source: DI Analysis, 2014

2014 #21Nakicenovic

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Source: Grubler et al, 2012

2014 #22Nakicenovic

Annual EnergyInvestments

InnovationRD&D

[billion US$2005]

MarketsFormation

[billion US$2005]

PresentInvestments[billion US$2005]

FutureInvestments[billion US$2005]

2010 2010 2010 2010 - 2030

Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 300-800

Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 300-1000

Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 40-60

Total > 50 < 150 1250 1750–2200

Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011

Global Energy Investments

2014 #23Nakicenovic

Modeling of Uncertainty and Risk

Source: Krey, Riahi, 2009

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Example of basic research in ENE: Results from new modeling tools with endogenous representation of uncertainty and risks. The insert (upper right corner) shows the distribution of future energy system costs given joint uncertainties for future technology costs and environmental legislation. The long tailed distribution implies significant risk to the investors due to uncertainty. Taking theses risks unto account is central for understanding real-world investment decisions. The animation shows changes of investment behavior due to uncertainty and different degrees of risk aversion. The tools highlights investment decisions under uncertainty that can reduce the probability of extreme events in the tail of the distribution (see animation and changes of the distribution in the upper corner). The animated bars show implications for energy investments and GHG emissions. The higher policy makers value potential risks, the more diversified becomes their investment portfolio. The animation shows that particularly renewables and efficiency are important options for hedging against the risk of uncertain technology and policy.

2014 #24Nakicenovic

●Random walk model of invention discovery and stochastic combinationwith other technologies into energychains and systems

●Evolutionary selection environment- uncertain increasing returns- market share gains f (rel. advantage)- externalities (stochastic C-tax)

●Evolution of complexity is function of learning rate and innovation impatience

●Complexity lock-in requires“gales of creative destruction”

The Evolution of Technological Complexity – Agent-based ApproachTieju Ma, Arnulf Grubler, Nebojsa Nakicenovic and W. Brian Arthur

2014 #25Nakicenovic

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l Glo

bal P

olic

y Cos

ts (2

010-

2030

) Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Cost of achieving all 3 objectives at Stringent level is less than the sum of “Only Energy Security” and “Only Air Pollution and Health” and “Only Climate Change” bars, mainly because climate change is used as an entry point. In other words, the sum of the three leftmost bars is greater than the rightmost part (~50% greater).

2014 #26Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

● Energy Access to clean cooking and electricity

● Energy security, pollution/health, and climate change: multiple objectives, their synergies and trade-offs

Interactive Policy Tools (GEF)IIASA-UNIDO-GEF: Cape Verde, 2012

Presenter

Presentation Notes

two interactive policy tools have been developed to communicate results of research to decision makers: ENE multi criteria assessment policy tool (jointly developed with ASA program) ENACT tool

2014 #27Nakicenovic

Climate Change

Maximum FufillmentMinimum Fufillment

Energy Security

Energy Affordability

Health / Air Pollution

Ancilliary Risks

Energy Access

GEA Pathway Analysis

Policy Tools for Decision Making

Presenter

Presentation Notes

KR: Consider to animate and mark the right-hand side of high aspiration for all objectives as an overall aim of the GEA pathways analysis.

2014 #28Nakicenovic

GEA-Databasewww.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb

THANK YOU

WWW.IIASA.AC.AT

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/

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