Energy Challenge:Overview & Technology
IssuesNational Space Grant
Directors Meeting27 October 2008
Sam V. Shelton, Ph.D.Strategic Energy Institute
Georgia Institute of Technology
1960’s U.S. Space Initiative
Created Generation of Engineers & Scientiest
I am a Product of Sputnik:– Graduate School on National Defense Education Act
First Career Position– Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Research Engineer
Energy & The Economy
Oil Price Increase
01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008
• 22 Percent per Year Average
Coal Price Increase
01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008
• 20 Percent per Year Average
Natural Gas Price Increase
01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008
• 15 Percent per Year Average
Energy Burden on Economy US Energy Expenditures as % of GDP
– 2004: 3%– 2008: 7%
Energy Costs Created Current Economic Crisis?
“The Oil Factor”, 2004, Stephen Leeb
Energy Challenge
Energy Drivers Working Together
Economics
Environment
Fossil Fuel Production Limitations
National Security
Environment and Energy
U.S. Natural Energy Resources Use
U.S. Oil Demand & Production
US Oil Production & UtilizationEIA Annual Energy Report (1949-2006)
Consumption
Production
Imports
Production
U.S. Oil Production with ANWRUS Oil Production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Year
Th
ou
san
d B
arr
els
per
Day ANWR
Alaska
Lower 48
ProjectedActual
World Oil Production
World Oil Production PeakingPredicted: 2006 - 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Pro
duct
ion,
Gbo
e/a
Conventional Heavy Polar Deep Water
World Oil Peaking is Driving Oil Prices UP
2006 Predictions:$100 per Barrel Oil Predicted
by end of 2010
U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
National Security&
Economic
Issues
Supplier of Last Resort
Saudi Arabia 20%Canada 14%Iran 10%Iraq 9%Kuwait 8%UAE 7%Venezuela 6%Russia 5%Libya 3%Nigeria 3%Kazakhstan 2%U.S. 2%
U.S. 25%China 8%Japan 7%Germany 3%Russia 3%India 3%Canada 3%South Korea 3%Brazil 3%France 2%Mexico 2%Italy 2%
Have OilHave Oil Use OilUse Oil
The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highestconsuming nations combined.
The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highestconsuming nations combined.
CIA Factbook 2007 EIA 2007
Foreign Energy Tax
National Balance of Payments– $1 Billion per DAY Going Out of US for Oil
U.S. Energy Policy Could be Stated As:“Leave No Saudi Prince or Iranian Mula Behind.”
Oil Demand
Primarily Transportation
Transportation is the Oil Issue
Very Large Transportation Fleet Huge Investment in Fleet
Evolves Very Slowly– 17 Years to Replace 50% of Vehicles
Vehicle Efficiency Improvements Change Vehicle Culture
– Smaller Cars– Hybrid Vehicles– Turbo Diesels Engines– Plug In Hybrids– All Electric Cars
ALL HAVE IMPACT IN ~2025– IF WE START SELLING THEM NOW
Is Aviation Fuel Inefficient?
Rutan Long EZ
Space Ship I
Space Ship I Landing
Natural Gas Supplies
N. American Gas DemandExceeding
N. American Gas Production
U.S. Natural Gas Production
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
U.S
. Nat
ural
Gas
Pro
duct
ion,
Tr
illio
n B
tu's
Importing Natural Gas
LNG Imports– Liquified
– -260F
Same as Oil Imports
Paid with Foreign Held Debt
National Security Costly to Transport
Electric Power Plants
Fuel Type Use for Electric Power
Electricity Uses Very Little Oil
Oil & Electric Power New Nuclear/Wind/Solar Electric
Power Will Save No Significant Oil
Oil Use is 2% of Current Electric Fuel
Electric Cars can be Charged from Current Non-Oil Night Base Load Plants
Conventional Power Plant Issues Coal Fired Power Plants
– Coal Mining Environmental Impact– Air Quality
Nuclear Power Plants– Economics: High Construction Cost– High Level Radioactive Waste
Hydro– Environmental Impact - Permitting Issues
Natural Gas Power Plants– Environmentally Relatively Clean– High Cost of Natural Gas-Economics– National Security: Importing LNG
Comparison of Levelized Costs
10
6
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
¢/kWh
nuclear (referencecase)
coal CCGT
Levelized Costs of Electricity (Traditional Plant Model)
MeetingNew Electric Power
Demand
New Power Plant Technologies New Generation Nuclear Plants
– Permits being Prepared for 2017 Start Up– Capital Cost is Uncertain– Waste Fuel Disposal is Issue: Yucca Mountain???
Coal Gasification with Combined Cycle– Higher Efficiency use of Coal (40% vs 35%)– Coal Strip Mining Environmental Impact– A Winning Coal Technology with CO2 Limits
(cont) New Power Plant Technologies
Wind Energy– Cost can be Competitive with Conventional:
• 6 to 8 cents/kWhr
– Permitting is Issue Solar Photovoltaics (PV)
– High Cost:• Silicon Technology:30 to 50 cents/kWhr
– Better Economics predicted since 1970’s– Good for Off Grid
Economics of RenewableElectrical Power Technologies
“Change” PV Technology
Thin Film PV Technology– First Solar
• www.spectrum.ieee.org
– Nanosolar• www.nanosolar.com
– Reduced PV Power into Grid from $0.40/kW to $0.25/kW?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Cen
ts p
er k
W-H
ou
r
Coal Nuke Gas CCGT Wind Solar
Relative 2006 Electric Power Generation Costs Estimates
(cont) Conclusions Oil is Near Term Problem:
– Supply vs. Demand
Electric Power Technology will Not Impact Oil
Economics is Prime Technology Driving Force
PV has Potential for Change Technology
Potential Solutions
Technology is Core
Solutions are Diverse
Thousands of Technology Improvements
Public Policy to Avoid Disruptions– Economic, Social, International
Long Term Electric Power
Space Power
Recent Thin Film PV Technolgy
Moves the Ball Forward
Georgia TechStrategic Energy Institute
Interdisciplinary Energy Innovation
PolicySciences
Engineering
SEI
Strategic Energy Planning
Identify High Impact Technologies
Identify Economical Technologies
Engage Industry Partnerships
Develop Near Term High Impact Technology
Build Demonstration Projects with Industry
SEI Major Projects
Southern Pine Cellulosic Ethanol– C2BioFuels
Off Shore Wind Energy– Southern Company
Broad Based Alternative Fuels– Chevron: $12 million Agreement
Ethanol from Pulp Wood
Only One Near Term High Impact Option for Oil
Develop Ethanol from Cellulosic Biomass
Ethanol as a Transportation Fuel
Uses existing gasoline distribution infrastructure
All Vehicles can Burn 10% Ethanol
Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFV)– Can Use 85% Ethanol (E85)
– 6 million FFV’s currently on the road
– 1 million FFV’s produced annually
Conventional Energy Inputs for Ethanol Production
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Corn Wood
% o
f E
than
ol E
nerg
y O
utp
ut
Petroleum
Other
Natural Gas
Coal
Georgia TechStrategic Energy Institute
Off-Shore Wind Energy
Pro
pose
d W
ind
Tu
rbin
e S
ite
Loca
tio
n Courtesy of: Georgia Institute of Technology, Center for Geographic Information Systems
Denmark Horns Rev: 80 Turbines, 160 MWatts
Optimistic: Convergence of Drivers
Fossil Fuel Production Limitations Economics Environment National Security
Solutions Technology Need National Public Policy
Thank You
Questions?
Conclusions
World Conventional Oil Production will Peak Energy Prices will Increase to Destroy Demand There is No Silver Bullet Solution Develop Near Term Transition Energy Technologies Economics is Primary Driver for Energy
Technologies Economic Development Opportunities for Georgia
– Ethanol from Southern Pine Pulpwood Long Term Energy Technology Development