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Business Ex loration®

 

Oil & Gas Energy

 

AerospaceRenewables

Collected by:

ing. Flavio Tosi  – Albo ingg.  Firenze # 3581  – www.business‐exploration.com ‐©2013 ‐ privileged and confidential ‐ all rights reserved

Flavio Tosi

January 2013

1

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Disclaimer

This document collects public available graphs from leading research centers and 

nternat ona   nst tut ons  e  ,  ,  ,  etc

The intent is to summarize latest MID TERM FORECASTS for the Oil, Gas, PG and 

Equipment markets.

This document is  rovided “as is” and even if  all efforts have been made to 

provide timely and accurate information, I can not take any responsibility for the 

consequence of  decisions

 made

 on it.

I preferred to group the charts by theme and zoom the page if  needed.

av o  os

For comment, suggestion or  just have a chat over the topics here described,  I am 

happy to be contacted  at:

+39 349 648 2225

or by e‐mail: flavio.tosi@business‐exploration.com

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Index:

Economic Drivers 4Economic Drivers: GDP: BRIC↗ US EU↘ Ja an ↘ ME↘ 5 

Technology trends: COAL↘, GAS↑, CNG↗, Local PG↗ 6

Cost index: UPS↑, PG↗, DOS↔, Unconv↘ 7

  ,  , 

OIL 9

  eman :  ,  , 

OIL Supply: US↗,OPEC↔, SPARE↗, Price↔ 11

OIL ADDITIONS: Off shore↑, Onshore↘, Tight ↑,Tar↗ 12Off shore: DEEP↑, Brazil↑, US↗, EU↗, Asia↗ 13

DOS refinery: ME↗,ASIA↗,EU↘ 14

DOS  etrochemical: Pol mers↗ Fertilizers↗ US↗ ASIA↗ 15

GAS 16

  ,  ,   , 

GAS supply: LNG↗, SHALE ↔ 18

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:  , 

3

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Summary:

as

Oil

Economy drivers

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Economic Drivers: GDP: BRIC↗, US↔ , EU↘, Japan↘, ME↘

Real GDP 

growth

(yoy % change)

IHS Cera 

@Davos 2013

GDP % yoy GDP % yoyGDP % yoy

ing. Flavio Tosi  – Albo ingg.  Firenze # 3581  – www.business‐exploration.com ‐©2013 ‐ privileged and confidential ‐ all rights reserved

Source: International Monetary Fund Oct. 2012

5

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Technology trends: COAL↘, GAS↑, CNG↗, Local PG↗

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Cost index: UPS↑, PG↗, DOS↔, Unconv↘

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Equipment Forecast: GT↔, ST↔, CC↗

GAS TURBINES PG STEAM TURBINES PG Gas Turbines Orders forecast,  Ansaldo oct. 2012

COMPRESSORS

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Summary:

conomy  r vers as

Oil

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OIL Demand: ASIA↑, US↔, EU↘

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OIL Supply: US↗,OPEC↔, SPARE↗, Price↔

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OIL ADDITIONS: Off shore↑, Onshore↘, Tight↑,Tar↗

E&P B$ Spending – IHS, Cera ‐ 2013 FPS Spending B$

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Off shore: DEEP↑, Brazil↑, US↗, EU↗, Asia↗

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DOS refinery: ME↗,ASIA↗,EU↘

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DOS petrochemical: Polymers ↗, Fertilizers ↗, US ↗,ASIA↗

Ref: Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2016 ‐ FAO 2012

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Summary:

conomy  r vers

Oil

Gas

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GAS Demand: Asia ↗, US ↔,EU ↘, Prices↗

JAP

USA

EU

x5

x7

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GAS supply: LNG↗, SHALE↔

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Conclusions:

onso a on. 

Oil: 

Offshore

Gas:

Back to USA

Trends:

Stagnation

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O h l il i

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Other: wages, nuclear, oil spot prices

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Ab t B i E l ti ®

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