© OECD/IEA, 2016
Energy, Climate Change & Environment: 2016 Insights
LCS-RNet Long-term Strategy Workshop COP22, Marrakech
November 11, 2016 Liwayway Adkins
Environment and Climate Change Unit International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA, 2016
The IEA works around the world to support an
accelerated clean energy transition that is
enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS
supported by ANALYSIS
and built on DATA
© OECD/IEA 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2
6DS
2DS
Staying well below 2oC degrees: How Paris has changed the energy challenge
Paris Agreement: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature
to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels…”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2
© OECD/IEA 2016
Staying well below 2oC degrees: How Paris has changed the energy challenge
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2
Other transformation
Agriculture
Power
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Getting well below 2oC means tackling the emissions that remain in the 2DS
Paris Agreement: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature
to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels…”
© OECD/IEA 2016
Cumulative CO2 emissions over 2015-2050 under the 2DS
2%
4%
8%
24%
29%
33%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Agriculture
Other transformation
Buildings
Transport
Power
Industry
GtCO2
Industry, power and transport sectors dominate
© OECD/IEA 2016
2DS emissions in 2050: Sub-sector breakdown of industry and transport
Pulp and paper 2%
Aluminum 4%
Other industries 18%
Iron and steel 20%
Cement 25%
Chemicals and petrochemicals
31%
Rail 1%
Aviation 11%
Shipping 14%
Light-duty vehicles
36%
Heavy-duty vehicles
38%
Transport 6 300 Mt
Industry 6 721 Mt
© OECD/IEA 2016
How are we doing in reducing the carbon intensity of our energy system?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Car
bo
n in
ten
sity
(1
99
0 =
10
0)
Historical 2DS
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
% c
han
ge
Annual % change in the ESCII, 2010-14
As of 2014, the world’s energy supply was 1.2% more carbon intensive than it was in 1990
© OECD/IEA 2016
Reducing emissions from incumbent fossil fuel facilities: a critical element of low-carbon scenarios
Addressing coal and gas plant emissions will be important to reduce global emissions
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Unabated coal Abated coal
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Unabated gas Abated gas
Coal Gas
© OECD/IEA 2016
Role of moderate carbon prices
Real-world carbon price expectations (USD 15/tCO2 – 40/tCO2 in 2030) are significantly lower than those consistent with 2°C scenarios (USD 100/tCO2 in 2030)
“Moderate” carbon prices still help:
support dispatch of low-carbon generation options
reduce need for subsidies for low-carbon investment
favor retirement of the most carbon-intensive plants
Well integrated packages of policies are needed – not carbon pricing alone (auctions, EE policies, etc.)
© OECD/IEA 2016
Renewables post-COP21
COP21 INDCs generated momentum for renewables development and deployment worldwide
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Ann
ual a
dditi
ons
(GW
)
Eurasia
Sub-Saharan Africa
MENA
Asia and Pacific
China
Europe
Latin America
North America
MTRMR 2016 (main case)
MTRMR 2015 (main case)
© OECD/IEA 2016
Demand-side levers (decomposition analysis IEA member countries)
Greater use of energy efficiency, energy conservation and other demand-side levers is needed to reduce emissions;
structural change also plays a role
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
GtC
O2
Structure effect
Efficiency effect
Cumulative savings since 2000: EE 13.2 GtCO2, Structure 5.4 GtCO2
Annual savings in 2015: - EE 1.6 GtCO2
- Structure 0.6 GtCO2
Actual emissions
© OECD/IEA 2016
SOEs are top emitters
Sources: CO2 from Fuel Combustion (IEA, 2015); company annual reports, industry association reports, Carbon Disclosure Project country reports, CARMA database, F2000 database and others.
Selected 50 SOEs would, by themselves, constitute the third largest emitting ‘country’
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
China USA EU28 India RussianFederation
Japan Germany Korea Canada IslamicRep. of Iran
Saudi Arabia Select 50 SOEs
Emis
sio
ns
(Mt
CO
2)
Looking beyond the ‘what’ and the ‘how’ to the ‘who’: tailoring solutions to motivate state-owned enterprises
© OECD/IEA 2016
Tracking and metrics
Source: IEA World Energy Investment 2016
© OECD/IEA 2016
Energy and emissions data
I. Interregional comparisons: • CO2
• ESCII • CO2/capita • TPES/GDP
II. Regional data and indicators: three graphs Ten global regions and world region for 1990-2014 and 2DS (2025 and 2050) Example: Southeast Asia region
CO2 emissions by fuel and sector, 2014 Energy sector-wide metrics Electricity sub-sector metrics
