2120 Milvia Street, Berkeley, CA 94704 Tel: 510.981.7439 TDD: 510.981.6903 Fax: 510.981.7490 E-mail: [email protected]
Berkeley Energy Commission
ENERGY COMMISSION AGENDA Wednesday, January 27, 2016 North Berkeley Senior Center
1901 Hearst Street 6:30 P.M.
1. Call to Order and Roll Call 2. Public Comments and Announcements Action Items 3. Approval of Minutes from Last Meeting Information Items 4. Report Back from Commissioner’s Meetings with their Council Members 5. Reports from Assigned Commissioners
Camacho - Community Choice Aggregation and Carbon Fee and Dividend Wang – Solar Plan Schlachter – Electric Vehicles and Point-to-Point Car Sharing James - Industrial Efficiency
6. Report on California Energy Commission Advanced Energy Communities Grant Application
7. Report on Community Choice Aggregation 8. Report from the Solar Plan Subcommittee 9. Report on Building Energy Saving Ordinance (BESO) Action Items 10. Items for Next Month’s Agenda 11. Adjournment Action may be taken on any item if moved to the Action section of the agenda at the request of a Commissioner. If Commissioners are unable to attend, please call Neal De Snoo, at the Energy Office, 981-7439, by 4:00 p.m., January 27, 2016. All agenda material may be examined in the Reference Room, of the Main Library, located at 2090 Kittredge. To request a meeting agenda in large print, Braille, or on cassette, or to request a sign language interpreter for the meeting, call 981-7439 (voice), or 981-6903 (TDD), with at least five (5) working days notice to ensure availability. Disabled access is
Energy Commission Page 2
at the front door. Ring bell for staff to open door. If you need other assistance, please call Neal De Snoo, at 981-7439, by 4:00 p.m., January 27, 2016.
This meeting is being held in a wheelchair accessible location. To request a disability-related accommodation(s) to participate in the meeting, including auxiliary aids or services, please contact the Disability Services Specialist, at 981-6342 (V), or 981-6345 (TDD), at least three (3) business days before the meeting date. Please refrain from wearing scented products to this meeting. Communications to Berkeley boards, commissions, or committees are public record and will become part of the City’s electronic records, which are accessible through the City’s website. Please note: e-mail addresses, names, addresses, and other contact information are not required, but if included in any communication to a City board, commission, or committee, will become part of the public record. If you do not want your e-mail address or any other contact information to be made public, you may deliver communications via U.S. Postal Service, or in person, to the secretary of the relevant board, commission, or committee. If you do not want your contact information included in the public record, please do not include that information in your communication. Please contact the secretary to the relevant board, commission, or committee for further information. Please refrain from wearing scented products to the meeting.
Item 3 October 28, 2015
2120 Milvia Street, Berkeley, CA 94704 Tel: 510.981.7439 TDD: 510.981.6903 Fax: 510.981.7490 E-mail: [email protected]
Berkeley Energy Commission
ENERGY COMMISSION MINUTES Wednesday, December 2, 2015 North Berkeley Senior Center
1901 Hearst Street 6:30 P.M.
1. Call to Order and Roll Call
The meeting was called to order by Commissioner Murray at 6:32 PM. Present: Camacho, James, Murray, Schlachter, Wang Absent: Bell, Myers, Bernhardt Leave of Absence: Constantine Staff: Neal De Snoo Guests: Milt Latta and Elyce Klein from Citizens’ Climate Lobby Public: 1
2. Public Comments and Announcements
The Commission welcomed Emilio Camacho. Action Items 3. Approval of Minutes from Last Meeting
The heading on the minutes was corrected to replace Tuesday with Wednesday. The corrected minutes were approved (MSC: JJ, KW, 5-0).
4. Discussion and Possible Action on Council Referral on a Solar Plan Commissioner Wang reported that the subcommittee just met and plans to work with Optony and one or more interns.
5. Discussion and Possible Action on Recommendation for Electric Vehicle Parking Legislation The Commission made minor edits to the report and approved it for submission to Council (MSC: JJ, EC, 5-0).
Information Items 6. Reports on Zero Waste Commission (Murray), Public Works Commission (James),
Community Environmental Advisory Commission (Schlachter), Transportation Commission (Wang), Planning Commission (Bell), and City Council (DeSnoo) Commissioner James reported that the Public Works Commission is discussing undergrounding utilities. Commissioner Wang reported that the Transportation Commission is discussing the bike plan, bike sharing and the Shattuck Avenue
Minutes from December 2, 2015 Item 3 Page 2 January 27, 2016
reconfiguration. Commissioner Murray reported that the Commission on Disabilities is discussion education on traffic safety for bicyclists.
7. Omitted
8. Presentation from Citizens Climate Lobby on Carbon Fee and Dividend The Commission discussed a proposal from the Citizens’ Climate Lobby for a carbon fee and dividend program. Commissioner Camacho volunteered to be the Assigned Commissioner to prepare a recommendation for Council. Commissioner James volunteered to assist.
9. Discussion on 2016 Work Plan
Staff reviewed prior work plan items. Current items and assigned commissioners (and supporting commissioners) were designated as follows:
Community Choice Aggregation: Camacho (Murray) Solar Plan: Wang (subcommittee) Point-to-Point Carsharing: Schlachter Industrial Efficiency: James (Camacho) Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: Schlachter
10. Report on State Energy Policy
No report. 11. Report on Community Choice Aggregation
Staff reported that the Mayor attended the November Alameda County Steering Committee meeting.
12. Report on the Building Energy Saving Ordinance
The Commission discussed the scope of the assessments and made some recommendations to staff.
Action Items
13. Items for Next Month’s Agenda Reports from Assigned Commissioners will be added to the standard agenda.
14. Adjournment The meeting adjourned at 7:50 PM (MSC: FS, JJ, 5-0).
Community Choice Energy (CCE) in the East Bay
2016/2017 Timeline & Major Milestones
Alameda County CCE Steering CommitteeJanuary 6, 2016
Item 7a January 27, 2016
Goal is to begin serving customers in early Spring 2017, which means customer notification begins in early February 2017. All major elements must be in place by January 2017.
We’ve seen a number of delays since original timeline, including the tech study, which will take longer than originally anticipated (complete in mid-May 2016)
To stay on track and meet the proposed launch date, we need to start working on parallel paths
These paths include: 1. JPA formation and administration 2. Community outreach/marketing 3. CCE program design, financing, power supply, et al
The 2016 Planning Context
1. County will begin JPA formation in Q1 and Q2 2016 with the idea of forming the JPA as a legal entity in late spring/early summer and seating the full Board in Fall of 2016.
2. Earlier formation of a JPA will position the CCE to take advantage of currently favorable energy pricing and potential renewable energy opportunities, such as Altamont wind and upcoming solar projects.
3. If the tech study results look good, the JPA infrastructure will be ready and the Agency can progress faster. If the results are unfavorable, the JPA will not likely move forward.
JPA Formation Sooner than Later
January – June 2016
Quarter Major Milestones
Q1January - March
• Tech study underway • County to draft JPA agreement and CCE ordinance• City and County briefings to solicit feedback on JPA agreement,
CCE ordinance and overall project plan through launch• Prepare and release public communications/marketing RFP
Q2April - June
• Tech study results released and finalized• Continue City briefings to solicit feedback on JPA agreement and
CCE ordinance• Hire marketing firm; begin public education/marketing • Develop short list of potential banking partners; begin bank
outreach meetings• June BOS Meeting(s): Final Study results presented with
implementation timeline, JPA agreement, CCE ordinance, request for Phase II funding, and any consulting contracts needed to continue work
July – December 2016
Quarter Major Milestones
Q3July – Sept.
• Set deadline of September 1 for cities to join JPA• Schedule study sessions and distribute key documents to support
decision-making• Ramp up marketing/public education campaign• Draft implementation plan and RFP for energy services and other
major vendors• Continue bank/credit discussions • Prepare staffing plan and begin search for Agency CEO
Q4October -December
• October: First JPA Board Meeting (approve Imp Plan, Energy RFP)
• Late October: Submit Implementation Plan to CPUC (90 days to certify)
• Finalize credit needs; select banking partner • Negotiate energy supply and other major vendor contracts; select
energy supplier and data manager by end of 2016• Hire Agency CEO and key staff; establish office and other admin.• Continue public education campaign; launch customer call center • Utility service agreement, post bond, regulatory registrations
January – June 2017
Quarter Major Milestones
Q1Jan-March
• January: JPA Board finalizes rates• February: first customer enrollment notices sent• Confirm remaining service vendors; continue with office and staffing • Public outreach and marketing continues
Q2April-June
• Continue enrollment/opt-out notices (March/April)• Continue with any remaining utility or regulatory requirements• Program Launch -- Initial customer enrollment: April, 2017!• Continue post launch opt-out notifications (May/June)• Begin design and implementation of ancillary programs, continue to
next enrollment phases
CCA FEASIBILITY STUDY
FOR ALAMEDA COUNTY
JANUARY 6, 2016
Mark Fulmer
MRW & Associates
Oakland, Ca l i fornia
mef@mr wassoc.com
510.834 -1999
Item 7b January 27, 2016
2
THE MRW TEAM
MRW & Associates
Experts in California wholesale power
market, Ratemaking, CCA formation,
and “PCIA” exit fees
Tierra Resource Consultants
Experts in energy efficiency
forecasting, program design,
development and implementation
EDR Group
Economic and jobs assessments,
Application of dynamic REMI model
for forecasting impacts
Item 7b January 27, 2016
Use existing load analysis models
Use existing financial/rate forecasting models
Build on CCA risk assessment experience
Develop Supply, EE, DR scenario inputs
Use REMI Model to assess economic and job impacts
Good communication with Alameda County CDA
3
APPROACH
Item 7b January 27, 2016
4
ANALYSIS MAP
Item 7b January 27, 2016
5
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Projected CCA Costs vs. Generation Rate
CCA Admin Costs
CCA CRS (Indifference Rate)
CCA GHG Costs
Other Procurement Costs
CCA Wholesale Procurement Costs
Average Generation Rate
$/M
Wh
Item 7b January 27, 2016
6
DSM ENVIRONMENT
Efficiency & Demand Response Market Profile
What’s out there and how might the Alameda CCA fit in?
Pending and newly enacted Legislation
Programs/Initiatives from PG&E, BayREN, Local
Governments, the State
What priorities are coming from the CPUC?
What providers of EE services are in the County?
Literature Review
What programs being implemented elsewhere that may be
relevant to Alameda County CCA?
Item 7b January 27, 2016
7
DSM ENVIRONMENT
Get Stakeholder Perspectives
Interview/provide questionnaires to local stakeholders:
Local and county government agency representatives
Large state/federal users (e.g., UC, National Labs)
Other CCAs
EE/DR industry service providers
Develop Scenarios for Modeling
Based on model used by CPUC to estimate energy efficiency
potential
Provide dollar, kW and kWh reductions to the modeling team
Item 7b January 27, 2016
8
DSM ENVIRONMENT
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Scenario 1 (low)
Scenario 2 (low mid)
Scenario 3 (mid)
Scenario 4 (high mid)
Scenario 5 (high)
GW
h
IOU goals
SB350Energy efficiency goals and potential forecast
Local initiatives
contributing
Item 7b January 27, 2016
1. Minimum RPS Compliance: 33%50% qualifying renewables
2. More Aggressive: Initially 50% with lower GHG emissions
3. Ulta-Low GHG: 50%80% by year 5
How much local renewables will depend upon
costs and potential
9
SUPPLY SCENARIOS
Item 7b January 27, 2016
Understand how the scenario’s locally procured investment translate into annual direct jobs by industry type, and multiplier jobs by industry type.
Understand how the scenario’s change on electricity prices (relative to business-as-usual) converts into annual job changes by industry type
Portray the pay quality of the affected jobs
It can not - on its own - know the extent of any revenue off -set to local generating units (this must come from scenario assumptions)
It does not distinguish whether a job is union or not
10
WHAT CAN THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC
FORECAST MODEL DO?
Item 7b January 27, 2016
Forecast jobs (direct & multiplier) based on the proposed CCA
structure and the region’s economic conditions
Policy -driven investment apportions into a basic profile
$ installation labor
$ on manufactured components
$ with distributors & other suppliers
Profiles will vary depending on:
energy-efficiency & intended end-use
Renewable type (e.g., small DG, larger DG, utility -scale
renewables, etc.
11
JOBS ANALYSIS
Item 7b January 27, 2016
If a scenario is to address implications on union jobs
(+ or -), the client-contractor team will need to refer
to recent CA CCA’s for instances of Project Labor
Agreements as well as the extent of union job
exposure amidst lost sales at local electric
generating unit.
12
SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION TO
INFORM THE JOBS ANALYSIS
Item 7b January 27, 2016
Short-term Influences (deployment)
Program Spending
Participant Out-of-Pocket
Expenditure on Improvements (split, equipment vs labor)
Equipment manufacturing – in county, in State or out -of-state?
Longer-term Influences (over the useful life of devices )
Participants’ bill savings
Utility sector off -sets from reduced load.
Ratepayer effects (e.g. DRIPE if relevant, other)
13
SCENARIO INPUTS
Item 7b January 27, 2016
Financial
How much does the CCA need to collect to cover expenses?
Can the CCA do this at rates that are “competitive” with PG&E ?
Regulatory
CCA still has some CPUC oversight: procurement, exit fees
Legislation can change everything
Community
Will the implemented plan deliver what was promised including
for local resident labor force?
14
UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS
Item 7b January 27, 2016
15
BALANCING PRIORITIES
COST-EFFECTIVE
LOW-CARBON
LOCAL
SUPPLY/ECON.
DEVELOPMENT
Item 7b January 27, 2016
16
SCHEDULE
Item 7b January 27, 2016
17
QUESTIONS?
Item 7b January 27, 2016
EXTRA SLIDES
18
.
Item 7b January 27, 2016
REMI dynamic impact forecasting model that uniquely handles cost (& rate) changes that arise on non-residential customer segments…in addition to everything that a static input -output model approach can provide – HH income changes and program related spending shifts.
Direct jobs will come from the investment composition of the MRW team defined scenario(s) and sensitivities for local labor util ization
Non_direct jobs result from the REMI model’s region -specific cost responses on C/I segment competitiveness & then a traditional set of multiplier effects
Annual impact results over the BAU : Jobs, Wages, Sales, GSP, Exports (and many more) in aggregate and by industry type
19
ECONOMIC/JOBS ANALYSIS
Item 7b January 27, 2016
20
REMI’S CORE LOGIC
Output
Market SharesLabor & Capital Demand
Population & Labor Supply
Wages, Prices, & Profits
Electric & other energy prices
Investment tied to new technologies
Item 7b January 27, 2016
21
IMPACT ANALYSIS IN REMI
The REMI Model
Alternative Forecast
Compare Forecasts
Control Forecast
What are the
effects of the
Proposed
Action?
Baseline values
for all Policy
Variables Policy
Action
Item 7b January 27, 2016