Energy Efficiency:How Much Can We Count On?And from What?
National Council of State Legislators Energy Efficiency Institute
Karen George and Ellen PetrillElectric Power Research Institute
June 24, 2008
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Agenda: How much energy efficiency can we count on? And from what?
1. Utility-sponsored energy efficiency and dynamic energy management RD&D at EPRI
2. EPRI-EEI Joint Energy Efficiency Study
3. Impact of Technology R&D
3© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Electric Power Research Institute
• RD&D consortium for power industry founded in 1973
• Independent, nonprofit
• 186 member organizations
• Major offices in Palo Alto, CA; Charlotte, NC and Knoxville, TN
– Laboratory facilities inKnoxville, Charlotte and Lenox, MA
• Full spectrum industry coverage– Nuclear
– Generation
– Environment
– Power Delivery & Utilization
Energy Efficiency Research, Development and Deployment
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Electricity Consumption…Historical Trend and Baseline Growth Forecast
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Ener
gy (T
Wh)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Growth Rate = 7.8%(1950 – 1973)
Growth Rate = 2.3%(1974 – 2007)
Growth Rate = 1.05%(2008 – 2030)
Baseline Forecast*
* Based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Preliminary Results (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sectors)
Objective – Get the “Green Area” to be as Efficient as Possible
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EPRI’s Living Laboratory
Evaluating and testing energy efficiency technology
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Advancing the Use of Smart and Efficient Devices
Lighting
Programmable Communicating Thermostats
Direct EnergyFeedback Devices
Heat Pumps
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Programmable Communicating Thermostats
• Can transmit and receive information
• Customer can program remotely, so more convenient
• Customer energy management, including participation in demand response
• Utility program load shifting ranges from 1 kW to 3 kW
• Issues: cost, lack of standards, integration, customer behavior
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Energy Savings from Direct Energy Use Feedback
• Wide range of results; from zero to >20%
• 6.5% average in Hydro One 529-home, 2.5-year study (Mountain, 2006)
• Self-selected samples, differences in study design make results difficult to apply to different locations and populations
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Why Heat Pump Water Heaters
• Lower energy use (reduce energy use by 50% or more)
• Lower peak electrical demand (reduce WH peak diversified elec. demand by 50% or more)
• Free cooling & dehumidification byproduct
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Heat Pump Example: Residential Water Heating Adoption Issues
•HPWH initial cost usually much higher
• Installation – Plumber vs. HVAC contractor
•Awareness•Lack of marketing•Size and reliability•Maintenance infrastructure lacking
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Eco Cute HPWH
• Energy efficient heat pump system– Heats water to 900C (higher
COP with higher delta T)– Heating load shifted to night
as per TOU rates• Utilizes natural refrigerant – CO2
– Ozone depletion potential of zero
– Global warming potential of 1/1730
– No toxic or inflammable gas (no potential for fires)
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Eco Cute HPWHs in Japan – History and Shipments
• Developed by TEPCO, CRIEPI and DENSO in late 90s
• First commercial system announced in 2001
• 350,000 units shipped in FY 2006• Cumulative total of 830,000 by end
of FY 2006/07• Japanese Government goals – 5.2
million units (cumulative) by FY 2010
• 18 manufacturers for residential application
• 15 manufacturers for commercial applications
Data: Courtesy of TEPCO
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Variable Refrigerant Flow Systems
• Multisplit ductless system• Refrigerant flow to each evaporator• Simultaneous heating and cooling• Efficiency improvement up to 40%,
but needs more testing and market development in U.S.
• Individual zone control– Keeps running cost at minimum by
controlling each zone individually• Comfort
– Very good room temperature control (±1deg F)
– Better dehumidification by running compressor continuously with minimum speed
• Refrigerant flow control is the heart of the system
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Potential Applications – Especially with Ice Storage
• Multiple zones requiring individual control– Hotels, motels, condominiums– Hospitals– Strip malls– Office buildings
• Possible to sub-meter energy usage– Easy to combine with ice-
storage system– Potential for demand response
Ice Make
Old System
Direct Cooling
Ice Melt
Ice Make
Avoided!!
Ice Make
Old System
Direct Cooling
Ice Melt
Ice Make
Avoided!!
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Making PC and Server Power Supplies More Efficient
Climate Savers InitiativeComputer Power Supplies
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Analyzing Growth of Consumer Electronics
PLASMA TV
42”250W
vs.
27”100W
Consumes 2.5x more energy
SET TOP BOX
30W
30W
==
2 set top boxes consume as much energy in one year as a
refrigerator
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Trends in Consumer Electronics - Set-Top Box
• A Set-Top box consumes 30W of power• Average annual energy consumption is 263 KWHr, which is nearly
the same as the annual energy consumption of 36” CRTs, 267 KWHr• Approximately eight 220-MW power plants needed to meet growth
STB demands (from 2004 to 2009)
30W, 100% duty cycle in a year
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Agenda…
1. RD&D at EPRI
2. EPRI-EEI Joint Energy Efficiency Study
3. Impact of Technology R&D
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EPRI – EEI Joint Energy Efficiency Study
Analyze potential U.S. energy efficiency savings between 2008 and 2030• Detailed micro-economic model based
on equipment stock turnover
• Comprehensive database of energy efficiency technologies and measures
• Calibrated with opinions of 50+ industry experts, spanning utilities, regulators, government agencies, and NGOs
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Steps to Becoming More Energy Efficient…
Compliance with Efficiency Mandateson Books as of 2007
Consumers Respond to Technology Improvements
and Market Effects(no utility/govt. programs)
Market – DrivenEfficiency [2]
[1] Compliance with minimum building codes & equipment efficiency standards mandated by federal or state law[2] Consumers respond, without intervention of utility programs, to market-driven improvements in technology efficiency, price effects, and other market factors that impact energy consumption
Codes & Standards [1]
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Electricity Consumption…Impact of Codes & Standards and Market-Driven Efficiency
In 2030…
• Market-driven Efficiency[1] ~ 5% savings*
• Codes & Standards[1] ~ 18% savings*
+
Codes &Standards[1]
Market-driven[1]
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
* Relative to Baseline ForecastConsumers• Buy
products/build-ings that comply with efficiency mandates
• Respond totechnology improvementsand market effects
[1] Definitions on Slide 11
Ener
gy (T
Wh)
Baseline Forecast *
* Based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sectors)
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Steps to Becoming More Energy Efficient…
Compliance with with Efficiency Mandates
Consumers Respond toTechnology Improvements
and Market Effects
Utility & Govt. ProgramsEncourage
Increased Adoption
Market – DrivenEfficiency [2]
AchievablePotential [3]
[1] Compliance with minimum building codes & equipment efficiency standards mandated by federal or state law[2] Consumers respond, without intervention of utility programs, to market-driven improvements in technology efficiency, price effects, and other market factors that impact energy consumption[3] Additional savings through utility energy efficiency programs; range bounded by realistic and maximum achievable potential. Limited to technologies that are economically-feasible, subject to consumer choice.
Codes & Standards [1]
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7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Electricity Consumption…Achievable Potential Electricity Savings
In 2030…
• Achievable Potential [1] ~ 8.5% to 14%
• Savings of ~ 424 to 700 Billion kWh=
Achievable Potential [1]
Achievable Potential [1]
AdditionalElectricitySavings
Utility ProgramsEncourageIncreasedAdoption
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Ener
gy (T
Wh)
[1] Definitions on Slide 13
Realistic ~ 8.5%Max ~ 14%Baseline Forecast *
* Based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sectors)
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Agenda…
1. EPRI’s Energy Efficiency Program
2. EPRI-EEI Joint Energy Efficiency Study
3. Impact of Technology R&D
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Steps to Becoming More Energy Efficient…
Consumers Complywith Efficiency Mandates
Consumers Respond toTechnology Improvements
and Market Effects
Utility/Govt. Programs Encourage
Increased Adoption
Market – DrivenEfficiency [2]
AchievablePotential [3]
Codes & Standards [1]
Technology R&D
[1] Consumers comply with minimum building codes & equipment efficiency standards mandated by federal or state law[2] Consumers respond, without intervention of utility programs, to market-driven improvements in technology efficiency, price effects, and other market factors that impact energy consumption[3] Additional savings through utility energy efficiency programs; range bounded by realistic and maximum achievable potential. Limited to technologies that are economically-feasible, subject to consumer choice.
26© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
7,000
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Electricity Consumption…Technical Potential Electricity Savings
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Achievable Potential [1]
Achievable Potential [1]
Technical Potential
Technical Potential
Technical PotentialConsumers adopt the most efficient commercially available technologies, regardless of cost
Ener
gy (T
Wh)
Baseline Forecast *
* Based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sectors)[1] Definitions on Slide 13
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Hyper-Efficient Technologies
Heat Pump Water Heaters
Variable Refrigerant FlowAir Conditioning
Ductless Residential Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners
Hyper-EfficientResidential Appliances
LED Street andArea Lighting
Efficient Data Centers
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Challenges to Increasing Efficiency?
• R&D Investments
• Demonstration and Deployment
• Technologies Proven, but Not Commercialized
• Manufacturability and Cost
• Smart Grid Solutions
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Implications of study results
• Need to consider all opportunities to use electricity more efficiently . . . No Single Solution!
– Need policy makers to support RD&D
– Need aggressive codes and standards to increase the efficiency of electronic loads
– Need to develop new end-use technologies that are “hyper-efficient” compared to today’s devices
– Need to develop and deploy smart grid solutions to provide dynamic interactions
– Need to develop end-to-end efficiency solutions across the entire power system
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End-to-End Energy Efficiency R&DThe Full Portfolio…
•Generation•Transmission & Distribution – GreenCircuitsTM
•End-use Energy EfficiencyEPRI Engaging the Industry to Develop
an End-to-End Energy Efficiency Framework
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Energy Efficiency – End to End
100coal electricity
~ 65% loss ~ 7% loss
Generation Transmission & Distribution
~ 35
electricity
~ 28
End Use
~4
EPRI Engaging the Industry to Developan End-to-End Energy Efficiency Framework
Generation, Delivery and Utilization –Opportunities to Improve Efficiency Across the Electricity Chain
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Concept of showing power grid efficiency using color spectrumAnimated
% ofElectricityGenerated
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Achieving the Power Delivery System of the Future:Integrating Two Infrastructures
Electrical Infrastructure
“Intelligence” Infrastructure
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The Smart GridOne Integrated Process
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Integration and a Smart Grid
EfficientBuildingSystems
UtilityCommunications
DynamicSystemsControl
DataManagement
DistributionOperations
DistributedGeneration& Storage
Plug-In Hybrids
SmartEnd-UseDevices
ControlInterface
AdvancedMetering
Consumer Portal& Building EMS
Internet Renewables
PV
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Electric Transportation Program
1. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles• Vehicle testing and demonstration • Li Ion battery development and
evaluation• Environmental and economic impacts
2. Non-road electric transportation• Electric lift trucks, ground support
equipment, truck stop electrification, sea and air port electrification
3. Infrastructure• Smart charging of plug-in hybrids• Codes and standards• Analysis of system impacts
EPRI and its utility members comprise the largest and most experienced ET effort in North America.
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Auto Industry Interest in PHEVs Accelerating Rapidly
Ford Escape PHEV Saturn Vue PHEV
Toyota Prius PHEV Prototype
PHEV Ford F-550Trouble Truck
(Eaton, Ford, EPRI)
PHEV Dodge Sprinter(EPRI & Daimler AG)
Chevrolet Volt EREV(Extended Range EV)
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Environmental Assessment of PHEVsA Joint Study by EPRI and NRDC
• First comprehensive study of the energy, climate, and air quality impacts of large scale PHEV adoption
• Results:1) Moderate improvements in
overall air quality2) Significant CO2e, petroleum
reductions– 160 – 600 million tons/yr– 3-4 million barrels per
day by 20503) Impact to utility sector is
modest—total capacity expansion 1.2 – 4.6% between 2010 – 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Green
house Gas Emission
sRe
ductions (million metric tons)
Low PHEV Share Medium PHEV Share High PHEV Share
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Annual Electric Sector Energy
(million GWh)
Low PHEV Med PHEV High PHEV No PHEVs
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12¢ per mile2¢ per mile
(1¢ per mile off-peak)
Electricity Provides Lower Operating Costs
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Actions to Overcome Barriers to Energy Efficiency and Dynamic Energy Management
• Consumer education and understanding
• Support for research and development—and demonstrations
• Adopt, implement and enforce building codes and appliance standards
• Create sustainable utility business models for energy efficiency
• Recognize energy efficiency as an energy resource
Q&A
Contacts:
Ellen Petrill, Director, Public/Private Partnerships, EPRIPalo Alto, [email protected]
Karen George, Energy Efficiency Analytics and Technology Transfer, EPRI, Boulder, [email protected]