ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
Essential insight for consumers and suppliers of non-domestic energy efficiency in the UK
November 2016
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
NOVEMBER 2016
© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2016. Developed in partnership with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2016.
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SUPPORTED BY:
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Minimise Energy provides LED lighting products and services that maximise efficiencies and ROI for clients. The company
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ENDORSED BY:
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
NOVEMBER 2016
© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2016. Developed in partnership with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2016.
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CONTENTS
SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION __________________________________ 4
SECTION 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ____________________________ 5
2.1. SUPPLIER TRENDS ........................................................................................ 5
2.2. CONSUMER TRENDS ..................................................................................... 6
SECTION 3. SUPPLIER TRENDS _______________________________ 7
3.1. THE ORDER BOOK ......................................................................................... 7
3.2. STAFF NUMBERS ........................................................................................... 8
3.3. SALE PRICES.................................................................................................. 8
3.4. INDUSTRY RISK ............................................................................................. 9
3.5. GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS ............................................................... 10
SECTION 4. ARTICLE: A VIEW FROM ACADEMIA ________________ 11
SECTION 5. CONSUMER TRENDS ____________________________ 13
5.1. TECHNOLOGIES & MEASURES................................................................... 13
5.2. PROPERTY TYPES ....................................................................................... 14
5.3. PROJECT COSTS ......................................................................................... 15
5.4. PROJECT FINANCE ...................................................................................... 15
5.5. FINANCIAL PAYBACK ................................................................................... 16
5.6. MEASUREMENT AND VERIFICATION ......................................................... 16
5.7. CONSUMERS NOT UNDERTAKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY ....................... 17
SECTION 6. SPECIAL FEATURE: INNOVATION IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY ____________________________________ 18
APPENDICES ____________________________________________________ 22
APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY ________________________________ 22
APPENDIX B: SUPPLIER RESPONDENTS________________________ 23
APPENDIX C: CONSUMER RESPONDENTS ______________________ 24
ABOUT US __________________________________________________ __ 25
CONTACT US ____________________________________________________ 26
________________________________________________________________ 27
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
NOVEMBER 2016
© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2016. Developed in partnership with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2016.
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TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Market Monitor – tracking industry confidence, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e) ............ 5
Figure 2: Consumers commissioning efficiency projects, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 ................ 6
Figure 3: Trends in orders from national customers, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e) ................... 7
Figure 4: Trends in orders from overseas customers, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e) ................. 7
Figure 5: Trends in the number of staff employed, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e) ...................... 8
Figure 6: Trends in sale prices achieved, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e) .................................... 8
Figure 7: Key issues of concern to energy-efficiency suppliers, Q3 2016 ........................ 9
Figure 8: Trends in key issues of concern, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 ...................................... 9
Figure 9: Trends in industry views on energy efficiency policy, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016...... 10
Figure 10: Industry views of the wider economy’s management, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 .... 10
Figure 11: Uptake of energy efficiency technologies, Q3 2016 v four-quarter average .... 13
Figure 12: Trends in top technologies for consumer uptake, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 ............ 13
Figure 13: Breakdown of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2016 ................... 14
Figure 14: Trends of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 ........ 14
Figure 15: Trends in capital costs, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 ................................................... 15
Figure 16: Trends in finance models, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 ............................................... 15
Figure 17: Trends in expected payback periods, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 ............................. 16
Figure 18: Trends in the use of good practice M&V, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016 ........................ 16
Figure 19: Consumer reasons for lack of efficiency uptake, Q3 2016 v four-quarter average .......................................................................................................... 17
Figure 20: To suppliers: In your view, what proportion of customer estates have now been upgraded with high efficiency lighting? .................................................. 18
Figure 21: To consumers: What proportion of your organisation’s estate has now been upgraded with high efficiency lighting? ........................................................... 18
Figure 22: To suppliers: What proportion of your customers have expressed an interest in the 'Internet of Things' (IOT) as an opportunity for improving energy performance of buildings? .............................................................................. 19
Figure 23: To consumers: How important do you think the 'Internet of Things' (IOT) could be as a future opportunity for improving the energy performance of buildings? ....................................................................................................... 19
Figure 24: Which emerging technologies, services or business models have the potential to deliver 'game changing' energy efficiency improvements over the next five years? ........................................................................................ 20
Figure 25: To suppliers: What proportion of your customers make use of outsourced Facilities Management (FM) arrangements to deliver energy savings within their estates/portfolios? .................................................................................. 21
Figure 266: To consumers: Does your organisation outsource its Facilities Management, and if so, does the contract incorporate energy management? ................................................................................................ 21
Figure 27: Who completed the survey? Q3 2016 ............................................................. 22
Figure 28: Breakdown of respondents by supplier type, Q3 2016 .................................... 23
Figure 29: Supplier respondents’ organisation size (no. of employees), Q3 2016 ............ 23
Figure 30: Consumer respondents by sector, Q3 2016.................................................... 24
Figure 31: Consumer respondents’ organisation size (no. of employees), Q3 2016 ........ 24
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
NOVEMBER 2016
© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2016. Developed in partnership with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2016.
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SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION
Welcome to the latest edition of UK Energy Efficiency Trends, the leading source of market
insight for the energy efficiency sector. This edition examines consumer and supplier trends in
the third quarter of 2016 (July-Sept).
This quarter, energy-consuming organisations are seemingly adopting the equivalent of the mad-
rush-to-the-supermarket to stockpile supplies ‘just in case the worst happens’. Indeed, our data
suggests that there has been a sharp uptick in project sizes over the last 6 months – 56% of
respondents reported projects over £100,000 as opposed to just 27% six months ago. It could be
that the influence of Brexit remains strong this quarter: whether it is that consumer organisations
are anticipating some price inflation for efficient products over the coming months, or are
uncertain over future energy prices.
As one might expect, the supply side of the market also reported an uptick in orders this quarter.
Perhaps not the boom they would like to report, but certainly a good level of order-book growth
that has, in turn, helped to raise confidence levels within the sector despite rock bottom levels of
support for Government action.
With high efficiency lighting starting to lose ground to other technologies and measures over
recent quarters, this edition’s special feature section on ‘Innovation in Energy Efficiency’,
introduced by Alex Rathmell of EEVS, investigates to what extent this opportunity has been
saturated and, if so, what consumers and suppliers think will be the ‘next big thing’. See Section
6.
Energy Efficiency Trends has also recently been reaching out to form collaborative relationships
with academic institutions that have similar interests in the macro level analysis of energy trends.
In this edition, Professor Paul Ruyssevelt of the UCL Energy Institute shares leading thinking on
‘Energy Epidemiology’ and how it can help lay the foundations for transformational innovations in
energy efficiency. See Section 4.
Never a dull quarter - and from our latest results it certainly feels like there will be plenty more
interesting new market dynamics to report over the coming quarters, not least as the economic
impact of Brexit (and not to mention the US election!) becomes (somewhat) clearer. Watch this
space.
Tom Rowlands-Rees
Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
Ian Jeffries
EEVS Insight
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
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© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2016. Developed in partnership with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2016.
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SECTION 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The EEVS/Bloomberg Energy Efficiency Trends Survey (Vol.17) was completed
by 65 UK-based respondents (36 consumer organisations and 29 suppliers),
between 4 October and 4 November, 2016. Their answers relate to the situation
in the third quarter.
2.1. SUPPLIER TRENDS
• Supply-side industry confidence recovered slightly this quarter but remains in negative
territory. The market monitor – which combines trends in supplier order books, staffing levels,
sale prices and government action – improved from -38 to -14 points, perhaps a relaxation
from the initial shock of the ‘Brexit’ vote.
• This slight uptick in industry confidence has been driven by a recovery in sentiment in UK
orders (Figure 3) and staffing levels (Figure 5) – with the aggregate view in both cases
returning to the neutral position of order books and staff numbers remaining stagnant rather
than declining.
• In contrast, confidence in respect of the government’s management of energy efficiency
policy (Figure 9) has dropped to its lowest level since the survey began, perhaps influenced
by a recent decline in sentiment regarding the government’s management of the wider
economy.
• Key concerns for the sector remain largely constant – customer demand is still the dominant
issue for 41% of suppliers, followed by national competition (14%) and subsidy/policy
uncertainty (14%).
Figure 1: Market Monitor – tracking industry confidence, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e)
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: based on weighted confidence indicators from Figures 3, 4, 5, 6, and 9.
Zero represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Positive sentiment(max = 500 points)
Negative sentiment(min = -500 points)
Positive sentiment(max = 500 points)
Negative sentiment(min = -500 points)
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2.2. CONSUMER TRENDS
• Consumers continue to move away from lighting-based schemes this quarter with high
efficiency lighting projects sliding further against other technology types. High efficiency
lighting remains in top spot – it is still included in around half of commissioned projects – but
over the last 6 months purchases have declined substantially. It has been a similar story for
lighting controls technologies, which have slipped from second to fourth spot in the table.
• The key growth technologies over the last 6 months have been Building and Energy
Management Systems (BEMS) and related performance monitoring systems (M&T) which
have increased in popularity over the same period.
• Volatility in spending has continued - over the last 6 months the proportion of organisations
reporting spending over £100,000 on energy efficiency projects increased from 27% to 56%.
Our estimate of median project investment for the same period has jumped from £47,000 six
months ago to £144,000 in the second quarter and to some £256,000 this quarter. One
potential explanation of this could be post-Brexit uncertainty and the anticipation of future
price rises as inflationary pressures are felt within the sector.
• Finance matters remained largely stable this quarter, albeit with a slight uptick in consumer
use of external finance. Broadly, the long-term trend was sustained for a 70/30 split between
use of in-house capital and third-party finance, respectively. Full third-party financed projects
remain a very small proportion of the whole.
• Payback expectations have continued to loosen, with the median reported payback now
approaching 4 years. This quarter saw the largest volume of projects within our 3-5 year
payback banding. By contrast, shorter (up to 3-year) payback projects continued to contract.
• Performance measurement of investment energy/cost-saving performance continues to
increase. This quarter saw a broad 50/50 split between projects that included performance
measurement and verification and those that didn’t. Only a small percentage now report that
they don’t know if savings performance is being measured / verified in line with good practice
standards.
Figure 2: Consumers commissioning efficiency projects, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: shows the proportion of respondents who have commissioned (or plan to
commission) projects in a given quarter.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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SECTION 3. SUPPLIER TRENDS
3.1. THE ORDER BOOK
Figure 3: Trends in orders from national customers, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e)
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero
represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
Figure 4: Trends in orders from overseas customers, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e)
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero
represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
-300
-240
-180
-120
-60
0
60
120
180
240
300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fall significantly
Fall slightly
Remain constant
Increase slightly
Increase significantly
Confidence Indicator(RH axis)
-300
-240
-180
-120
-60
0
60
120
180
240
300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fall significantly
Fall slightly
Remain constant
Increase slightly
Increase significantly
Confidence Indicator(RH axis)
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NOVEMBER 2016
© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2016. Developed in partnership with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2016.
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3.2. STAFF NUMBERS
Figure 5: Trends in the number of staff employed, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e)
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero
represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
3.3. SALE PRICES
Figure 6: Trends in sale prices achieved, Q3 2012 – Q4 2016(e)
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero
represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
-300
-240
-180
-120
-60
0
60
120
180
240
300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fall significantly
Fall slightly
Remain constant
Increase slightly
Increase significantly
Confidence Indicator(RH axis)
-300
-240
-180
-120
-60
0
60
120
180
240
300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4e
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fall significantly
Fall slightly
Remain constant
Increase slightly
Increase significantly
Confidence Indicator(RH axis)
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
NOVEMBER 2016
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3.4. INDUSTRY RISK
Figure 7: Key issues of concern to energy-efficiency suppliers, Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: each supplier respondent was asked to select their primary issue of concern.
Therefore results sum to 100%.
Figure 8: Trends in key issues of concern, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: each supplier respondent was asked to select their primary issue of concern,
therefore results sum to 100% in each period.
Customer demand
41%
Competition -national 14%
Subsidy/policy uncertainty
14%
Raising finance, 7%
Regulation7%
Pressure to reduce costs
7%
Staff costs3% Other 7%
Customer demand
Competition - national
Subsidy/policy uncertainty
Raising finance
Regulation
Pressure to reduce costs
Staff costs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other
Staff costs
Pressure to reduce costs
Regulation
Raising finance
Subsidy/policy uncertainty
Competition - national
Customer demand
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
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3.5. GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS
Figure 9: Trends in industry views on energy efficiency policy, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero
represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
Figure 10: Industry views of the wider economy’s management, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: CI = confidence indicator. The dotted line represents the CI from Figure 9, which
is overlaid here for comparison with views on the wider economy. Zero represents neutrality. 500/-500 indicate
the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.
-300
-240
-180
-120
-60
0
60
120
180
240
300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Very ineffective
Ineffective
Neutral
Effective
Very effective
Confidence Indicator(RH axis)
-300
-240
-180
-120
-60
0
60
120
180
240
300
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Very ineffective
Ineffective
Neutral
Effective
Very effective
Confidence Indicator(RH axis)
Energy Efficiency CI(RH axis)
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SECTION 4. ARTICLE: A VIEW FROM ACADEMIA
Energy Efficiency Trends was established on the principle that the energy efficiency
market needs access to trusted, quantitative performance information to build
investment confidence, to grow and to innovate. We’re delighted to have formed
collaborative relationships with leading academic institutions that share these
values.
Professor Paul Ruyssevelt is the UCL Energy Institute’s chair in Energy and
Building Performance and leads their activities in the field of non-domestic
buildings. A key research theme is the study of ‘Energy Epidemiology’, which
focuses on providing an evidence base for government and industry to support end-
use energy reduction. As part of this edition, we asked Paul to share his thoughts
on how macro level research and the growing availability of energy data can
support market, policy and technological innovations and affect a transformational
change in energy demand.
Analysis of Real Building Energy Use at Scale
• In response to concerns about climate change, energy security and social equity, countries around the
world are either planning to dramatically reduce energy demand and carbon emissions or, in the case
of emerging economies, to develop in less energy intensive ways. These transformations will require
a raft of technology and policy interventions that, to be truly effective, must be supported through
comprehensive empirical evaluation. The data to support the design, implementation and evaluation of
such interventions are often absent; consequently, many policies do not deliver the anticipated impact
on energy demand. The collection of, and access to, reliable building and energy use data have
historically been limited due to the cost of collection and institutional or governmental structure such as
the privatisation of utilities. In addition, the importance of access to high quality data has been
underestimated with an over-reliance on normative models. This situation is changing as new
international treaties are agreed upon and countries implement legislatively controlled carbon budgets.
Simultaneously, a data revolution is occurring as a result of the introduction of high frequency and smart
meters, the increasing use of low-cost sensors, and the combination and integration of many and varied
data sets facilitated by the Internet. It is certainly encouraging to see the Energy Efficiency Trends
innovation feature reporting high consumer interest in Internet of Things (IOT) technologies to drive this
data revolution.
• A much better systems approach is needed to understanding how energy demand is changing over
time and the factors operating to influence these changes than has been the case with conventional
approaches. This energy systems perspective can be obtained by bringing together energy data from
large-scale population (or building) based studies and adopting data management and analytical
techniques similar to those applied to public health (health epidemiology). Insights from population-
based empirically derived evidence can be used to inform the type, timing, and targeting of policies, as
well as provide insights to assist development of technologies designed to manage energy demand and
carbon emissions. For example, by linking together large databases of energy, buildings, and energy
retrofits data (as tracked over the last four years by Energy Efficiency Trends) to determine the efficacy
of delivered technology in reducing measured energy use. Such information is the tip of the iceberg of
what can and should be achieved with future data sources and when these data are combined with
data from more detailed field studies. This field is becoming known as “energy epidemiology” the study
of energy use among a population.
• The transfer of the health epidemiological approach to energy demand is not a direct application, but
rather an adaption of those tools and methods that can best serve the study of the complex interactions
between technological, institutional, behavioural, physical and environmental factors that lead to energy
demand.
Prof Paul Ruyssevelt
UCL Energy Institute
“The data to support the
design, implementation
and evaluation of
transformational
technology and policy
interventions are often
absent; consequently,
many do not deliver the
anticipated impact on
energy demand.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
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• The epidemiological study of energy demand should:
– describe and measure the distributions of variable(s) of interest, e.g. energy demand per unit of
observation
– explain the distribution by its determinant factors: physical, environmental, social, behavioural and
economic
– support models that predict the changes expected in the distribution due to interventions, particularly
energy efficiency and behavioural control measures
– provide an evidence basis for informing policy and practice related to the management of energy
demand.
• There are numerous beneficial implications of a more systematic and systemically structured approach
to using national energy and buildings data for: policy formulation and evaluation, technology testing
and deployment, and national development and decarbonisation pathways.
• In order to address the challenges of collecting, describing and using high quality data on energy use
and buildings for the purpose of informing national development and low carbon pathways, a new
International Energy Agency project (Annex) has been established. Annex 70 will focus on: stakeholder
engagement in needs and uses of energy and buildings data; availability, collection methods and
structure of building stock data; comparisons of actual and predicted energy performance in buildings;
methods of empirical data analysis of populations of energy and buildings; data structures for national
building stock modelling.
• There is a need for better energy and buildings data among a wide group of actors. National building,
energy and environment, building control and construction agencies need better quality data on
buildings and their energy performance and energy demands for both forward planning and evaluation
of past practices. Commercial development and technologies organisations need better market
information and processes for describing real world impacts of their products on energy demand and
performance.
• By focusing on data, its collection methods and analysis and use in national modelling exercises, Annex
70 will identify data gaps and provide stakeholders with resources, i.e. an observatory of data and
methods, from which to draw for national comparison, modelling and engagement.
• Annex 70 is led by the UCL Energy Institute and involves research organisations and industrial partners
from several IEA member countries working together to develop the building energy epidemiological
methods that are needed to establish a firm evidence base for the development of new policies and the
successful application of new technologies. Further details can be found at the Annex website:
https://energyepidemiology.org/
• I am very excited about the opportunity to work with the EEVS and BNEF teams delivering Energy
Efficiency Trends; to collaborate on data gathering and analysis in order to gain greater insight across
our respective research activities.
• Professor Paul Ruyssevelt – UCL Energy Institute
ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 17
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SECTION 5. CONSUMER TRENDS
5.1. TECHNOLOGIES & MEASURES
Figure 11: Uptake of energy efficiency technologies, Q3 2016 v four-quarter average
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: ranks technologies according to the proportion of consumers who commissioned
a project in each technology out of the overall number of consumers commissioning projects.
Figure 12: Trends in top technologies for consumer uptake, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: shows the proportion of respondents who commissioned a project in the
respective category out of the total number of respondents who commissioned a project.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other
Heat Pumps - Ground Source
Refrigeration - Optimisation
Optimisation - of set-points and controls
Compressed Air Equipment
Heat Pump - Air Source
Heat Pumps - Water Source
HVAC
Radiant and Warm Air Heaters
Refrigeration - Controls
Solar - Thermal
High Speed Hand Dryers
Power Management - Voltage Optimisation, Power Factor Correction
Refrigeration - High Efficiency Unit
Heat Exchangers
Boiler - High Efficiency Unit
Boiler - Controls
Building Fabric - Glazing, Insulation, Materials
Cooling and Air Conditioning
Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
Motors and Drives
Boiler - Optimisation
Energy Recovery
Smart Metering
Solar - Photovoltaic
Monitoring and Targeting (M&T) / Performance Management Software
Lighting - Controls
Behaviour Change
Building Energy Management System (BEMS)
Lighting - High Efficiency
Q3 2016
4Q average
Building Energy Management System
Behaviour Change
Lighting - High Efficiency
Lighting - Controls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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5.2. PROPERTY TYPES
Figure 13: Breakdown of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Figure 14: Trends of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Office20%
Public building13%
School4%
University, 4%
Manufacturing, 5%
Industrial, 11%
Leisure Centre / Sports, 2%
Hospital, 4%
Retail - High Street, 5%
Retail - Out of Town, 4%
Data Centre5%
Laboratory4%
Residential, 5%
Restaurant and Bars, 4%
Warehousing and Distribution, 4%
Hotel, 4%
Street / Highway Lighting Infrastructure, 2%
Other2%
Office
Public building
School
Manufacturing
Leisure Centre / Sports
Hospital
Retail - Out of Town
Data Centre
Office
Public building
School & University
Manufacturing & Industrial
Retail
Leisure Centre / Sports
Hospital
Other
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other
Retail
Hospital
Leisure Centre / Sports
Manufacturing & Industrial
School & University
Public building
Office
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5.3. PROJECT COSTS
Figure 15: Trends in capital costs, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
% projects in each band £ Thousands
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the line shows the cost trend for energy efficiency projects over time based on
the estimated median.
5.4. PROJECT FINANCE
Figure 16: Trends in finance models, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF
0
100
200
300
400
500
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unknown
£500K+
£100-500K
£50-100K
£10-50K
<£10K
Zero
Median
(RH-axis)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other
Unknown
Supplier-arranged
Third party finance
Combination
In-house
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5.5. FINANCIAL PAYBACK
Figure 17: Trends in expected payback periods, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
% projects in each band Number of years
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: the line shows the expected payback trend for energy efficiency projects based
on the estimated median.
5.6. MEASUREMENT AND VERIFICATION
Figure 18: Trends in the use of good practice M&V, Q3 2012 – Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: M&V = measurement and verification.
0
2
4
6
8
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unknown
10 + years
5-10 years
3-5 Years
1-3 years
<1 year
Median
(RH-axis)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
No
Unknown
Yes
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5.7. CONSUMERS NOT UNDERTAKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Figure 19: Consumer reasons for lack of efficiency uptake, Q3 2016 v four-quarter average
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: respondents not commissioning projects may have cited multiple reasons. The
chart shows the proportion of respondents in each category out of overall respondents, not commissioning
projects. Results therefore do not sum to 100.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other
Uncertainty over the financial benefits / business case
Lack of trust in the industry
Preference for renewable energy (e.g. solar)
Subsidy uncertainty
Wider macro-economic uncertainty
Negative impact on core operations
Lack of affordable finance
Lack of resource
Senior management not bought in
Buildings are landlord-owned, so little upside
Future projects are planned
Energy efficiency has already been undertaken
Higher priorities elsewhere
Q3 2016 (negative impact)
4Q average
Q3 2016 (industry neutral)
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SECTION 6. SPECIAL FEATURE: INNOVATION IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY In this edition, we have asked suppliers and consumers for their views on the
next wave of innovation that will influence energy performance in buildings.
Alex Rathmell analyses the results and shares a view on ‘the next big thing’
below:
‘Halfway through the harvest’
The Energy Efficiency Trends research has told us clearly that high efficiency lighting has been
the ‘big thing’ for several years. Since it became viable to retrofit LEDs as a replacement for
fluorescent fittings in around 2011, lighting upgrades have consistently been the most reported
energy efficiency measure deployed by our survey respondents. A lighting upgrade is a clear
case of ‘low hanging fruit’ – an easy-to-deploy turnkey project that will pay for itself from savings
in a few years.
So, we wanted to answer a simple question. After four years of this LED lighting boom, how far
along the adoption curve are we? Or to put it another way, how much of this low hanging fruit has
been harvested?
The answer appears to be ‘about half’. A little under half of energy users reckon that the bulk of
their estate has been upgraded to LEDs already. This means there are still many great
opportunities for projects, but the population of buildings that will benefit from a transformational
lighting upgrade is gradually diminishing.
Figure 20: To suppliers: In your view, what proportion of
customer estates have now been upgraded with high
efficiency lighting?
Figure 21: To consumers: What proportion of your
organisation’s estate has now been upgraded with high
efficiency lighting?
Source: EEVS, BNEF Source: EEVS, BNEF
Less than 25% of lamps
25% to 50% of lamps
50% - 75% of lamps
More than 75% of lamps
Don't knowLess than
25% of lamps
25% to 50% of lamps
50% - 75% of lamps
More than 75% of lamps
Don't know
Alex Rathmell
EEVS Insight
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So, what’s next?
The bad news is that most energy efficiency projects are harder to implement than a lighting
upgrade, being more dependent on controls and continuous optimisation, because the human
beings that occupy our buildings tend to override, erode and otherwise interfere with even the
best-laid energy efficiency plans.
But an increasing number of organisations need to work out how to do this if they are to keep
decoupling energy use from growth, having already banked the savings from a lighting upgrade.
The technology to achieve this – sub-metering, monitoring and targeting software – has been
around for many years, but in our experience really successful implementations are rare. Many
organisations struggle to control drift in energy use in operational buildings, let alone proactively
seek out opportunities for savings and investable projects.
So, we wanted to explore whether the much-vaunted ‘Internet of Things’ (IoT) might offer a
solution. Could the promise of a building-wide cloud of cheap, ubiquitous sensors enable easy,
granular control of energy on a new scale, giving us a smart, self-optimising built environment?
Or does this just create stockpiles of data that cannot readily be converted into actionable
information?
Our energy-using respondents are unanimous. They declare that IOT is going to transform
energy management, and it is the most-cited ‘game changing’ technology by energy consumers.
Figure 22: To suppliers: What proportion of your customers
have expressed an interest in the 'Internet of Things' (IOT)
as an opportunity for improving energy performance of
buildings?
Figure 23: To consumers: How important do you think the
'Internet of Things' (IOT) could be as a future opportunity for
improving the energy performance of buildings?
Source: EEVS, BNEF Source: EEVS, BNEF
Less than 25% of
customers
25% to 50% of
customers
50% to 75% of
customers
More than 75% of
customers
Don't know
Not important
Important
Extremely important
Don't know
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The Internet of…. What?
Yet our community of suppliers of products and services are more ambivalent. They predict a
number of possible technological frontiers including battery storage, demand response and on-
site renewables driving the future of energy performance, their responses no doubt coloured by
the solutions they themselves offer to the market.
But perhaps this also implies that IOT technical solutions and business models are not yet fully
fledged. There are still few turnkey smart-building products on the market, and no consensus yet
on the precise advantages that a smart building offers. So, we conclude, IOT is coming, but we
don’t yet know what it will mean.
Figure 24: Which emerging technologies, services or business models have the potential
to deliver 'game changing' energy efficiency improvements over the next five years?
Number of mentions
Source: EEVS, BNEF. Note: “Holistic efficiency” includes assessing the impact of building technology on
productivity and efficiency gains through changes such as working from home.
Back to basics
What we do know is that, if there are fewer technological ‘quick wins’ to be had, the building
occupants on the ground need to share in the responsibility for delivering savings and sustaining
performance. The Energy Efficiency Trends reports have tracked the rise of professional
engagement programmes focusing on energy efficient behaviours in the workplace. The most
successful organisations in this field are instilling an awareness of energy performance at a
cultural level, akin to the quality management or continuous improvement culture that has
transformed manufacturing over recent decades.
But of course, in the modern workplace, often the people on the ground are not your own people.
Many organisations have outsourced their facilities management (FM), as well as maintenance,
mechanical and electrical services. So, do these contractors share the host organisation’s energy
goals, and are they helping to drive efficiency in buildings? The survey data can be interpreted in
various ways, but it appears to show that the more innovative organisations are harnessing their
outsourcing contracts to enhance energy performance.
0 5 10 15 20
Batteries/storage
Big data/IoT
On-site renewables
Demand response
New financing/business models
Heat-based solutions
"Holistic efficiency"
Electric vehicles
Other
Consumer
Supplier
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Figure 25: To suppliers: What proportion of your customers
make use of outsourced Facilities Management (FM)
arrangements to deliver energy savings within their
estates/portfolios?
Figure 26: To consumers: Does your organisation
outsource its Facilities Management, and if so, does the
contract incorporate energy management?
Source: EEVS, BNEF Source: EEVS, BNEF
Most consumers say they are not using their FM contracts to deliver savings, either because they
don’t outsource, or because energy services are not part of their FM contract. But a higher
proportion of the energy users that are working with our community of energy services providers –
by implication, those who are already managing energy proactively – do seem to be using their
outsourced FM contracts to drive savings, indicating that the leading organisations are pouncing
on the opportunity to work with facilities partners to optimise energy use.
Making it work
The idea of using FM relationships to deliver savings is not a new one, so what are these leading
organisations doing to make this work? In our experience, these arrangements can only work
with the right measurement systems in place, a clear alignment of objectives and a muscular
governance and management process to ensure that claimed savings are actually being delivered
in practice.
Successful partnerships may not arise where lowest-cost is the overwhelming procurement driver,
as it so often is with facilities management. Instead the total cost of an FM contract that
dramatically reduces energy spend needs to be taken into account, as well as the benefits of a
more comfortable, better maintained working environment.
Of course, the IOT revolution may well be an enabling factor that opens up this market. But as
always the challenge is not really in generating data, but in converting it to information in order to
improve and manage performance.
So, somewhat prosaically, the ‘next big thing’ in energy efficiency might not be a new technology,
but smarter contracting.
Alex Rathmell, EEVS Insight
Less than 25% of
customers
25% to 50% of
customers50% to 75% of
customers
More than 75% of
customers
Don't know
No -facilities
and energy managed in-house
Yes - but energy management is
not in the provider's remit
Yes - and energy
management is included
Other
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APPENDICES Appendix A: Methodology
The EEVS/Bloomberg Energy Efficiency Trends Survey (Vol.17) was conducted between 4 October
and 4 November, 2016, and completed by 65 UK-based respondents (36 consumer organisations
and 29 suppliers).
This is the 17th in a series of reports showing industry trends in non-residential energy efficiency.
As the report series evolves, we continue to make minor tweaks.
Initially, the report covered a broad range of European countries, but since Volume 8, it has
presented UK-based results only, as these consistently accounted for the bulk of data received.
In focusing the report on a single country with better data coverage, we were able to present
cleaner, more robust results. This coincided with a revamp of the analysis including – among other
modifications – the introduction of a set of time series charts.
The latest modification to the series is to produce a fully annotated annual report at the start of each
year, with the three remaining quarterlies taking the form of a chart pack. This report is our second
quarterly with reduced commentary. Please reach out should you wish to discuss any of the trends
observed in the charts.
Figure 27: Who completed the survey? Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Consumer55%
Supplier45%
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Appendix B: Supplier respondents
Figure 28: Breakdown of respondents by supplier type, Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Consultancy services, 45%
ESCO14%
BMS / controls, 14%
CHP, 10%
Finance7%
HVAC, 7%
Lighting3%
Consultancy services
ESCO
BMS / controls
CHP
Finance
HVAC
Lighting
Monitoring & targeting
Figure 29: Supplier respondents’ organisation size (no. of employees), Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF
24%
35%
21%
3%
3%
14%
Less than 10
10-50
51-250
251-500
501-1000
More than 1000
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Appendix C: Consumer respondents
Figure 30: Consumer respondents by sector, Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Figure 31: Consumer respondents’ organisation size (no. of employees), Q3 2016
Source: EEVS, BNEF
Local or Regional Authority
22%
Health5%
School/College3%
Other16%
Retail & Wholesale, 8%
Services & Storage, 5%
Property and Real Estate, 5%
Leisure and Recreation, 5%
Food and Drink, 3%
Manufacturing11%
Construction & Engineering
3%
Other5%
Agriculture3%
Other5%
Local or RegionalAuthorityRetail & Wholesale
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Other
Public / Institutional
Commercial
Industrial
Other
Agriculture
11%
11%
11%
2%65%
Less than 50
50 - 250
251-500
501-1000
More than 1000
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ABOUT US __________________________________________________
About EEVS
EEVS is the UK’s leading provider of performance assurance, analysis and information services in relation
to energy efficiency. Our performance assurance services include working with clients to devise and develop
performance management systems and strategies; procurement policies and tender evaluations; due
diligence on performance contracts and guarantees; performance and financial risk analysis.
Alongside this, our established team of energy analysts provide high quality, independent Measurement and Verification (M&V) services
for all sizes and types of energy saving projects. Since 2011 we have evaluated the savings performance of hundreds of energy efficiency
projects to the global good practice standard, IPMVP. Our trusted analysis helps suppliers to credibly prove their project’s or technology’s
saving performance, whilst providing customers with much-needed certainty around their investment’s return and value for money.
EEVS wider market information and research services – in particular the Energy Efficiency Trends publications – aim to improve the
attractiveness, transparency and investability of the energy efficiency market through the provision of reliable market-level performance
and trend information. For further details about EEVS and our services, please visit www.eevs.co.uk
About Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) is the definitive source of insight, data and news on the
transformation of the energy sector. BNEF has staff of more than 200, based in London, New York,
Beijing, Cape Town, Hong Kong, Singapore, Munich, New Delhi, San Francisco, São Paulo, Sydney,
Tokyo, Washington D.C., and Zurich.
BNEF Insight Services provide financial, economic and policy analysis in the following industries and markets: wind, solar,
bioenergy, geothermal, hydro & marine, gas, nuclear, carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency, digital energy, energy
storage, advanced transportation, carbon markets, REC markets, power markets and water. BNEF’s Industry Intelligence Service
provides access to the world’s most comprehensive database of assets, investments, companies and equipment in the same
sectors. The BNEF News Service is the leading global news service focusing on finance, policy and economics for the same
sectors. The group also undertakes custom research on behalf of clients and runs senior-level networking events, including the
annual BNEF Summit, the premier event on the future of the energy industry.
For more information please visit about.bnef.com
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CONTACT US
Ian Jeffries
+44 (0) 33 0313 8488
EEVS Insight Ltd
29 Long Lane
London
SE1 4PL
Tom Rowlands-Rees
+44 (0) 20 3525 4144
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
City Gate House,
39-45 Finsbury Square
London
EC2A 1PQ
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Energy Efficiency Trends Vol. 17
November 2016