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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 1
Energy efficient buildings - an important
opportunity to mitigate climate change
3rd Passive House Portugal conference, Aveira 2015-11-28
Günter Lang / Passivhaus Austria
Passivhaus Primary school Mariagrün Graz
Treated floor area: 2,015 m²
Heat demand: 11 kWh/m²a
Architekturwerk Berktold Kalb / GBG Gebäude und Baumanagement Graz GMBH / Fotocredits: Kurt Hörbst
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 2
Temperatur Anstieg der letzten 55 Jahre
CO2 racing
during the
last 55 years
CO2 racing
by 2100
To 6,4°C Temperature
racing by 2100
800.000 750.000 700.000 650.000 600.000 550.000 400.000
800.000 750.000 700.000 650.000 600.000 550.000 400.000
Temperature- and CO2- Concentration in the Atmosphere over the last 800.00 years
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Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy,
Central European University
Vice Chair, WGIII, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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3CSEP
The role and
significance of the
IPCC
The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation & mitigation
Reports are reviewed by thousands of experts and government representatives
IPCC material must be policy relevant, but must not be policy prescriptive
(thus all recommendations in this talk are from myself and not from the IPCC)
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3CSEP
December 2007:
IPCC shares the
Nobel Peace Prize
with A.A.Gore
"for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater
knowledge about man-made climate change, and
to lay the foundations for the measures that are
needed to counteract such change".
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3CSEP
IPCC 2013, WGI, Figure SPM.1a Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly 1850-
2012
All Figures © IPCC 2013
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3CSEP
Figure SPM.2 Observed change in annual precipitation over land
All Figures © IPCC 2013
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3CSEP
Additional risks due to projected climate
change for a range of RCPs
RCP: Representative concentration pathway
Source: IPCC 2014, AR5, WGII.
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3CSEP
Figure SPM.8a,b Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results
All Figures © IPCC 2013
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Can we still cap warming at 2°C?
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3CSEP
Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature
might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
Source: IPCC 2014, AR5 WGIII
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3CSEP From: Global Carbon Project, 2015 July Paris presentation
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Very high efficiency buildings are key
to mitigating climate change
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3CSEP
1. The building sector is responsible for a
high share of emissions
In 2010, the building sector accounted for
117 EJ or 32% of global final energy
51% of global electricity consumption
Building emissions have more than doubled since 1970
…and expected to further double/triple by mid-century
Source: IPCC 2014, AR5 WGIII, Ch9
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3CSEP
Very high efficiency buildings are key to
mitigating climate change
1. Efficient buildings have a very high mitigation
potential
2. They are among the most cost-effective options
to mitigate Climate Change
3. In addition, they have high co-benefits
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2. Efficient buildings can play a very
large role in reaching ambitious
climate goals
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3CSEP
Energy Demand Reduction Potential
Source: IPCC 2014, AR5 WGIII. Figure SPM.11
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3CSEP
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Deep Moderate Frozen
EJ
+111%
-29%
+48%
World final thermal
energy use World floor area
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bln.m2
Single-family Urban Single-family Rural
Multifamily Office
Education Hotels & Restaurants
Retail Hospitals
Other Slums
Worldwide potential for reducing
thermal energy use in buildings
Source: Urge-Vorsatz et al 2012, see
www.globalbuildings.org
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3CSEP
AR4: The buildings sector offers the largest low-
cost potential in all world regions by 2030
Source: IPCC 2007, AR4, Chapter 10
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3CSEP
Figure 9.16.
Cost of
conserved
energy as a
function
of energy
saving in
percent for
European
retrofitted
buildings by
building type
and climate
zones.
Source: IPCC 2014, AR5 WGIII, Ch9
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3CSEP
Cumulative investment needs and energy cost savings
in “deep” and “moderate” building efficiency scenarios
http://www.gbpn.org/reports/best-practice-policies-low-carbon-energy-buildings-based-scenario-analysis
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diana_Uerge-Vorsatz
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Need to go for the highest level
Building efficiency programs and policies
need to encourage only the highest
achievable efficiency levels.
Shallow retrofits need to be avoided.
Better to “wait out” for a deep retrofit rather
than starting a shallow one.
Countries/cities would need to revisit their
support schemes + policies around retrofit!
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3CSEP
From a niche market to building code
Passive houses (or equivalent) must move from a niche market
to a mass market or rather to become the building code
Ambitious building codes (such as for retrofits) are possible:
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Move from niche market to standard practice
In order to keep climate change below
“dangerous” levels, and to maximize co-benefits,
the Passive House community needs to take an
active role in catalyzing a “miracle” in building
regulations (or other mass market options)
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3CSEP
Summary of lessons relevant for the
Passive House community 1. Climate Change can still be capped at 2°C, but major transformative
action needs to start today
Buildings (esp. HVAC) play a major role in global emissions
Avoiding cooling needs: good architecture + urban design + high
reflectivity + greenery = crucial for mitigation and resilience
Very high performance buildings can save 60% of HVAC-related
energy globally by 2050
Deep efficiency building energy pathways may even cost less on
total than shallow ones
Avoid the lock-in effect, only Passive House standard is sufficient
Bringing down costs of deep retrofits through experience is crucial
Focus on retrofits is needed
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3CSEP
Summary of lessons relevant for the
Passive House community 2.
More demonstration is needed for low investment cost
Passive Houses for the low-income and public purposes
Durability of components and whole systems is crucial both
for economics and lower embodied emissions
Avoiding lock-in risk: No more subsidy policies for non-deep
retrofits. The highest performance levels need to be targeted
Emission reporting needs include emissions from electricity
Passive Houses need to move from niche market to mass
market or standard practice
The Passive House community needs to take an active role
in lobbying for very ambitious building codes
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3CSEP
“From today, each new building
constructed in an energy-wasting
manner or retrofitted to a
suboptimal level will lock us into a
high climate-footprint future”
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 30
Example Passive Houses for selected locations (can be conditioned by supply air only)
insulation level 50%
to Austria
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 31
Neighbourhood Passive House Mautner Markofgründe, 1110 Vienna
4 residential buildings with 275 flats
"JOIN IN“ intercultural housing
Treated floor area: 8,040m2
Heat demand: 14.0kWh/m2a
Heat load: 10 W/m2
Exterior wall U-value: 0.10 W/m2K
Floor slab U-value: 0.08 W/m2K
Roof U-value: 0.11 W/m2K
Windows Uw-value 0.79 W/m2K
Airtightness: 0.18 1/h
Year of construction: 2014
Building costs: € 1,450.- per m²
Architect: Architekten Tillner
& Willinger ZT Gmbh
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 32
Sustainability evaluation of Viennese housing estates in the passive house
standard – A post occupancy evaluation of selected criteria
BOKU 2009 Roman Smutny, Christoph Neururer & Martin Treberspurg
PopUp dorms – GreenFlexStudios 2015
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 33
Temporarily Passivhaus-dormitory for 40 students in Vienna Constructor: Obermayr Holzbau
Consultant: LANG consulting
Treated floor area 1,000 m2
Heat demand 13 kWh/m2a
Primary energy demand 100 kWh/m2a
One GreenFlexStudio-Box 16.8 * 5.5 m Building costs:1,300 €/m²
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 34
1.9
20
980
2200
1500
250
170
80
0
60
0
10
0
70
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
Austria Portugal
monthly income
yearly heat-/coolingcosts in conventionalsingle family house
yearly heat-/coolingcosts in Passive singlefamily house
yearly heat-/coolingcosts in conventionalapartment
yearly heat-/coolingcosts in Passiveapartment house
Don‘t heat and cool your money any longer!
It‘s real THE chance for ALL the world!
+ 50%
+ 15%
In Euro
43% of the population in Portugal
don't afford to pay the heating bills
- 90%
- 90%
- 90%
- 90%
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 35
Concept LANG consulting
Master plan for the Portugal energy revolution
€ 10,0 billion subsidy until 2030 € 100.- /m² subsidy for deep retrofits with 85% EE
for all postwar buildings in Portugal
Win – Win – Win strategy against economic crises !
Economic facts for next 20 years:
10,0 billion € subsidy EU finance
500 million € subsidy per yr
• 6,0 billion € VAT + taxes Portugal
• 30,0 billion € invest volumina
• 47,3 billion € energy saving costs
17,3 billion € benefit for Portuguese
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 36
€ 250 € 130
€ 250
€ 130
€ 100
€ 100
€ 255
€ 128
€ 246
€ 140
€ 200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Austrian Retrofitinvestment
Austrian saving energycosts
Portugal Retrofitinvestment
Portugal saving energycosts
Saved heat-/cooling costs over 20 years
Saved heat-/cooling costs in second period
Saved heat-/cooling costs in first period
Subsidy for retrofit with 85% efficiency goal
Generel retrofit investment 50%
Energetic relevant investment 50%
After 14 years
After 22 years
After 8 years
After 15 years
After 20 years
Don‘t burn your money any longer!
In Portugala third shorter pay back time by retrofit to Passive house standard!
In E
uro
per
m²
Single family house with 150m² / € 14,3/m²a saving energy costs first year / 5% price rice/a
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 37
First public retrofit to Passive House of a school building in Austria
Passive House makes resilient
What a blackout?
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 38
Graph: Amortization of renovation on Passive House standard within 5 or rather 11 years
Additional costs Passive House standard ca. 8%
Day- and artificial-light management ca. 2%
Ecologic sustainable actions ca. 3%
Existing structure before renovation
Conventional renovation
Retrofit to Passive House standard
Annu
ity a
nd
opera
ting
costs
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
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Passive house front-runner regions
Today Europe has
39 Passive House front-runner regions
with more than 42 Million inhabitants
Passive House standard
works in whole Europe
• Germany
• Austria
• Belgium
• Luxembourg
• UK
• Ireland
Poland
• Portugal
• Spain
• Italy
• Norway
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 40
Passive House trends in Europe from 2010 to 2021
540.0
Mio
.m²
25
.2 M
io.m
²
12
.8 M
io.m
²
50
.4 M
io.m
²
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 41
Sweden UK
Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Germany Austria
Estonia Finland France Greece
Ireland Italy Latvia Lithunia Croatia
Czech Rep. Hungaria Luxembourg Netherlands Poland
Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Cyprus
55.000 Passive Houses exist in
28 European member countries
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
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365 days stay in climatic spa
Permanently fresh air, but no
traffic noise, insects, dust, smog or pollen.
The heat keeps inside.
Just a health and comfortable
room conditions
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Thank you for your attention
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz Diana
Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy (3CSEP), CEU
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diana_Uerge-Vorsatz www.mitigation2014.org
Email: [email protected]
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Energy efficient buildings - an important opportunity
to mitigate climate change
Aveira, Nov 28th 2015 44
Good envelope – low heating load
High quality – good result!
Thank you for your attention!
www.passivehouse.com
www.langconsulting.at
www-.passivhaus-austria.org
www.passivehouse-international.org
