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Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

EnergyGeopolitics

Michael J.Economides

EnergyGeopolitics

Michael J.Economides

2008

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

T h e C o n t i n u o u s E n e r g y C r is i sh e C o n t i n u o u s E n e r g y C r i s i so f t h e 2 1 s t C e n t u r yf t h e 2 1 s t C e n t u r yOil almost $150, then far below $100

headlines rule crisis

OPEC has little excess capacity behindthe valve, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq

IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production

China has gone berserk

Saudi Arabia world regulator

$60 to $200 in 12 to 18 months

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

1977 Alaska8.4 Billion Barrels

2007 GOM22-45 Billion Barrels

GOM Headlines Rule No Peak Oil

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

S a u d i A r a b i a n T w i l i g h t a u d i A r a b i a n T w i l i g h t

NOW IN 5 LANGUAGES

Russian

Chinese

Spanish

Ko

rean

Available at Amazon.com or from Round Oak Publishing Company (1) 281-395-4783.

The Color Of Oil

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP

Source: DOE/EIA, 2008, Skov, 2000, DOC/BEA 2001,National Academy of Engineering, 1990

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

80 90 00 10 20 30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

80 90 00 10 20 30

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

80 90 00 10 20 30

1.71.7

1.41.4

2.22.2

1.51.5

1.21.2

0.80.8

2.12.1 9.59.5

1.51.5

2.72.7

2.22.2

1.01.0

1.51.5

5.95.9

2.22.2

Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar

HydroHydro

NuclearNuclear

Biomass,MSW

Biomass,MSW

Wind & Solar

OilOil

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

Growth Rate2003-2030, %

SolarSolar

Wind

MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE

Growth Rate1980-2003, %

1.6 1.7

11.111.1

Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources

US Energy Consumption

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Quadrillion

B

Other

Hydroelectric

Nuclear

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil Transportation

Oil Products

13

27

23

23

8.1

3.42.8

Heating andElectric Power

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

National TransportationEnergy Perspective

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Q

uadrillionBTU

Other

Conventional Hydroelectric Power

Nuclear Power

Coal

Natural Gas

Imported Oil

Oil Transportation

Oil Products

Impor ted Oi l

Biofuels

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The New Energy Economy

Wood (1800s)

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Hydrogen(envisioned)

Increasingly:

Clean

Energy intensive

Technologicallysophisticated

Distributed

Carboncontent:

High

Medium

Low

(Zero)

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

````````

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Golfing for Hydrogen

Bovine Brain Power > Mad Car Disease?

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

The Ethanol Scam

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There are no alternativesto hydrocarbon energy

sources in theforeseeable future

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Gwyneth Paltrow

Energy

Expert

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

TIME, AUGUST 26, 2002

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

What Climate Change?

Three points:Three points:Highly politicized. What to do about

it? Can anything be done? At whatcost?

Confusion (at times deliberate) betweenglobal warming and man-made effects

Preposterous: science all in. My offer:$10,000 for ONE peer-reviewed paper

showing causality between CO2 andincreased temperature. None exists

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Group Income StatementFor the year ended 31 December 2005

$ million

200520062007

254,000266,000284,000Total revenues

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Price of Oil and ExxonMobil Stock

EnergyGeopoliticsThe Axis of Energy Militants

IranVenezuelaRussia under Putin

The quagmire that is Iraq

China

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Russia under Putin

Bright spot in oil is gone

Re-Sovietization

Corruption

Total control of press

Investment climate has

cooled down

Production is bound

to decline

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Gazproms New Imperium

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Transparency International CPI, 2007

Denmark Finland New Zealand

Singapore Sweden

Iceland

RANK SCORE

1

4

6

9.4

9.3

9.2

United States20 7.2

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

and the Energy Militants

Iran

Indonesia Russia

Nigeria

RANK SCORE

131

143

147

2.5

2.3

2.2

Myanmar

162

1.4179

Venezuela 2.0

Somalia

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Georgia War

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Ch inaCh inaCanCan

Keep the Lights On?Keep the Lights On?

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Will China

Break Through?

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

China Oil Consumption

In the last decade Chinas oilconsumption increased by 3.5million barrels per day, the largestin the world by far.

If China were to use the same percapita consumption, as the US, itwould require 80 million barrels

per day (more than the entireworld use.)

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

China and Russia Energy will be Chinas choke point

Has become recently very assertive,if not belligerent.

Sudan, Nigeria

Canada

Venezuela

Chinas energy future passesthrough Russia.

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Russia and China

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Russia, China and Japan

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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

Another view of oil prices

Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES

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