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Energy in 2016: short-run adjustments and long-run transition Spencer Dale, group chief economist bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats © BP p.I.c.2017
Energy in 2016: short-run adjustments and long-run transition
Spencer Dale, group chief economist
bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats © BP p.I.c.2017
© BP p.l.c. 2017
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Primary energy and energy intensity
Annual change, %
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Primary energy Energy intensity
5-year average
2
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Energy consumption growth
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1985-95 1995-05 2005-15 2016
Other
India
China
OECD
Contributions to annual growth, %
3
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1965 1982 1999 2016
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Renew.
Fuel mix: growth and shares in primary energy
Annual change, Mtoe
Growth by fuel Shares of primary energy consumption
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Consumption Production
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Renew.
Total
4
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Growth in carbon emissions
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Carbon intensity of GDP
Annual change, %
Growth in GDP and carbon emissions
CO₂
GDP
5
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Growth in carbon emissions
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Fuel mix Energy intensity
Annual change, %
CO₂
GDP
Growth in GDP and carbon emissions
6
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Changes in growth in carbon emissions
Annual change, %
Factors slowing growth in CO₂
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
20162003-13
China
Rest of world
2013-16
7
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy
China industrial output and energy demand
Outputs of iron, steel and cement
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Iron Crude steel Cement
2004-14 2014-16
Annual change, %
Source: Includes data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China 8
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China industrial output and energy demand
16.3%
Contributions to energy demand growth Outputs of iron, steel and cement
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Iron Crude steel Cement
2004-14 2014-16
Annual change, %
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2004-14 2015
Iron, steel and cement
Other sectors
Annual change, %
Total
Source: Includes data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China 9
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Oil
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Oil market in 2015 and 2016
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
10-year average 2015 2016 10-year average 2015 2016
Consumption Production
Annual change, Mb/d
Exporters
Importers
OPEC
Non-OPEC
Total
11
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US tight oil rigs
Change in US tight oil rig count
Monthly change in rig count
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Prices start to rise
Prices start to fall
Source: includes data from US Energy Information Administration 12
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“OPEC remains an important catalyst to the stability and sustainability of the market… but history has also demonstrated that intervention in response to structural shifts is largely ineffective… that’s why Saudi Arabia does not support OPEC intervening to alleviate the impacts of long-term structural imbalances, as opposed to addressing short-term aberrations….”
HE Khalid Al-Falih
Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia
CERAWeek, March 2017
14
Energy in 2016: short-run adjustments and long-run transition
Spencer Dale, group chief economist
bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats © BP p.I.c.2017
