44
Energy – is there light at the end of the tunnel? Andrew Reddaway Alternative Technology Association August 2017
Energy ndash is there light at the end of the tunnel
Andrew Reddaway
Alternative Technology Association
August 2017
Agenda
Alternative Technology Association
bull Who is the ATA
bull Grid tariffs ndash whatrsquos the future hold
bull Renewable projects for farms etc
bull What should households do
Who is the ATA
bull Over 6400 members and 14 branches
bull Events amp community engagement
bull Policy amp consulting projects
bull International projects
Who is the ATA - Publications
Alternative Technology Association
published since 1980
Energy efficiency renewable energy electric cars retrofitting homes recycling and reusing
DIY projects
Published since 2005
Sustainable homes case studies including house plans and spec sheets
Your bill
Alternative Technology Association
Fixed charge
Energy charges
Solar feed-in (exports to grid)
No choice
Where does your money go
Alternative Technology Association
bull NSW higher network costs
bull Vic higher retail margin
Wholesale energy
Retail margin
Network Charges
Green schemes
Source httpwwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMPlanning_and_ForecastingEFIJacobs-Retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_Final-Public-Report-June-2017pdf
Retail costs
National Electricity Market (NEM)
Alternative Technology Association
bull Longest grid in world
bull Distribution lines extend further than transmission lines and cost a lot more
bull Sized for peak demand (eg air conditioning)
bull Other grids in WA NT Mount Isa etc
Transmission lines
Network returns are regulated
Alternative Technology Association
bull Natural monopoly
bull 13 distributors in the NEM different areas
bull Regulator approves network tariffs 5-yearly
bull Tariffs allow for regulated return on investment ndash low-risk business
bull Businesses have fought regulator decisions in court
httpswwwaergovaunews-releasefederal-court-judgement-on-aer-electricity-and-gas-price-decisions-disappointing-outcome-for-nsw-and-act-consumers
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Agenda
Alternative Technology Association
bull Who is the ATA
bull Grid tariffs ndash whatrsquos the future hold
bull Renewable projects for farms etc
bull What should households do
Who is the ATA
bull Over 6400 members and 14 branches
bull Events amp community engagement
bull Policy amp consulting projects
bull International projects
Who is the ATA - Publications
Alternative Technology Association
published since 1980
Energy efficiency renewable energy electric cars retrofitting homes recycling and reusing
DIY projects
Published since 2005
Sustainable homes case studies including house plans and spec sheets
Your bill
Alternative Technology Association
Fixed charge
Energy charges
Solar feed-in (exports to grid)
No choice
Where does your money go
Alternative Technology Association
bull NSW higher network costs
bull Vic higher retail margin
Wholesale energy
Retail margin
Network Charges
Green schemes
Source httpwwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMPlanning_and_ForecastingEFIJacobs-Retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_Final-Public-Report-June-2017pdf
Retail costs
National Electricity Market (NEM)
Alternative Technology Association
bull Longest grid in world
bull Distribution lines extend further than transmission lines and cost a lot more
bull Sized for peak demand (eg air conditioning)
bull Other grids in WA NT Mount Isa etc
Transmission lines
Network returns are regulated
Alternative Technology Association
bull Natural monopoly
bull 13 distributors in the NEM different areas
bull Regulator approves network tariffs 5-yearly
bull Tariffs allow for regulated return on investment ndash low-risk business
bull Businesses have fought regulator decisions in court
httpswwwaergovaunews-releasefederal-court-judgement-on-aer-electricity-and-gas-price-decisions-disappointing-outcome-for-nsw-and-act-consumers
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Who is the ATA
bull Over 6400 members and 14 branches
bull Events amp community engagement
bull Policy amp consulting projects
bull International projects
Who is the ATA - Publications
Alternative Technology Association
published since 1980
Energy efficiency renewable energy electric cars retrofitting homes recycling and reusing
DIY projects
Published since 2005
Sustainable homes case studies including house plans and spec sheets
Your bill
Alternative Technology Association
Fixed charge
Energy charges
Solar feed-in (exports to grid)
No choice
Where does your money go
Alternative Technology Association
bull NSW higher network costs
bull Vic higher retail margin
Wholesale energy
Retail margin
Network Charges
Green schemes
Source httpwwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMPlanning_and_ForecastingEFIJacobs-Retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_Final-Public-Report-June-2017pdf
Retail costs
National Electricity Market (NEM)
Alternative Technology Association
bull Longest grid in world
bull Distribution lines extend further than transmission lines and cost a lot more
bull Sized for peak demand (eg air conditioning)
bull Other grids in WA NT Mount Isa etc
Transmission lines
Network returns are regulated
Alternative Technology Association
bull Natural monopoly
bull 13 distributors in the NEM different areas
bull Regulator approves network tariffs 5-yearly
bull Tariffs allow for regulated return on investment ndash low-risk business
bull Businesses have fought regulator decisions in court
httpswwwaergovaunews-releasefederal-court-judgement-on-aer-electricity-and-gas-price-decisions-disappointing-outcome-for-nsw-and-act-consumers
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Who is the ATA - Publications
Alternative Technology Association
published since 1980
Energy efficiency renewable energy electric cars retrofitting homes recycling and reusing
DIY projects
Published since 2005
Sustainable homes case studies including house plans and spec sheets
Your bill
Alternative Technology Association
Fixed charge
Energy charges
Solar feed-in (exports to grid)
No choice
Where does your money go
Alternative Technology Association
bull NSW higher network costs
bull Vic higher retail margin
Wholesale energy
Retail margin
Network Charges
Green schemes
Source httpwwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMPlanning_and_ForecastingEFIJacobs-Retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_Final-Public-Report-June-2017pdf
Retail costs
National Electricity Market (NEM)
Alternative Technology Association
bull Longest grid in world
bull Distribution lines extend further than transmission lines and cost a lot more
bull Sized for peak demand (eg air conditioning)
bull Other grids in WA NT Mount Isa etc
Transmission lines
Network returns are regulated
Alternative Technology Association
bull Natural monopoly
bull 13 distributors in the NEM different areas
bull Regulator approves network tariffs 5-yearly
bull Tariffs allow for regulated return on investment ndash low-risk business
bull Businesses have fought regulator decisions in court
httpswwwaergovaunews-releasefederal-court-judgement-on-aer-electricity-and-gas-price-decisions-disappointing-outcome-for-nsw-and-act-consumers
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Your bill
Alternative Technology Association
Fixed charge
Energy charges
Solar feed-in (exports to grid)
No choice
Where does your money go
Alternative Technology Association
bull NSW higher network costs
bull Vic higher retail margin
Wholesale energy
Retail margin
Network Charges
Green schemes
Source httpwwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMPlanning_and_ForecastingEFIJacobs-Retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_Final-Public-Report-June-2017pdf
Retail costs
National Electricity Market (NEM)
Alternative Technology Association
bull Longest grid in world
bull Distribution lines extend further than transmission lines and cost a lot more
bull Sized for peak demand (eg air conditioning)
bull Other grids in WA NT Mount Isa etc
Transmission lines
Network returns are regulated
Alternative Technology Association
bull Natural monopoly
bull 13 distributors in the NEM different areas
bull Regulator approves network tariffs 5-yearly
bull Tariffs allow for regulated return on investment ndash low-risk business
bull Businesses have fought regulator decisions in court
httpswwwaergovaunews-releasefederal-court-judgement-on-aer-electricity-and-gas-price-decisions-disappointing-outcome-for-nsw-and-act-consumers
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Where does your money go
Alternative Technology Association
bull NSW higher network costs
bull Vic higher retail margin
Wholesale energy
Retail margin
Network Charges
Green schemes
Source httpwwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMPlanning_and_ForecastingEFIJacobs-Retail-electricity-price-history-and-projections_Final-Public-Report-June-2017pdf
Retail costs
National Electricity Market (NEM)
Alternative Technology Association
bull Longest grid in world
bull Distribution lines extend further than transmission lines and cost a lot more
bull Sized for peak demand (eg air conditioning)
bull Other grids in WA NT Mount Isa etc
Transmission lines
Network returns are regulated
Alternative Technology Association
bull Natural monopoly
bull 13 distributors in the NEM different areas
bull Regulator approves network tariffs 5-yearly
bull Tariffs allow for regulated return on investment ndash low-risk business
bull Businesses have fought regulator decisions in court
httpswwwaergovaunews-releasefederal-court-judgement-on-aer-electricity-and-gas-price-decisions-disappointing-outcome-for-nsw-and-act-consumers
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
National Electricity Market (NEM)
Alternative Technology Association
bull Longest grid in world
bull Distribution lines extend further than transmission lines and cost a lot more
bull Sized for peak demand (eg air conditioning)
bull Other grids in WA NT Mount Isa etc
Transmission lines
Network returns are regulated
Alternative Technology Association
bull Natural monopoly
bull 13 distributors in the NEM different areas
bull Regulator approves network tariffs 5-yearly
bull Tariffs allow for regulated return on investment ndash low-risk business
bull Businesses have fought regulator decisions in court
httpswwwaergovaunews-releasefederal-court-judgement-on-aer-electricity-and-gas-price-decisions-disappointing-outcome-for-nsw-and-act-consumers
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Network returns are regulated
Alternative Technology Association
bull Natural monopoly
bull 13 distributors in the NEM different areas
bull Regulator approves network tariffs 5-yearly
bull Tariffs allow for regulated return on investment ndash low-risk business
bull Businesses have fought regulator decisions in court
httpswwwaergovaunews-releasefederal-court-judgement-on-aer-electricity-and-gas-price-decisions-disappointing-outcome-for-nsw-and-act-consumers
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Energy Wholesale prices
Alternative Technology Association
bull Separate prices by state
bull Vary each half-hour
bull Can be volatile ndash Range from negative to eyewatering ($16kWh)
ndash Intentional feature to incentivise peak supply
bull Retailers pay generators ndash Many retailers own generators to manage risk
bull ldquoEnergy-onlyrdquo market set up in 1998 ndash Other designs exist in other countries
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Wholesale prices doubled recently
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovauwholesale-marketswholesale-statisticsquarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices
June 2017
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Why the price increase
Alternative Technology Association
bull Old coal-fired power stations can generate cheaply as they were paid off ages ago
bull Hazelwood closed short notice (1600 MW)
bull Supply has become tight
bull Itrsquoll take a year or two for new renewables to cover the gap
bull Gas-fired stations are currently filling the gap
bull Gas has become very expensive recently
ndash Due to gas exports from QLD to overseas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Gas exports vs domestic
Alternative Technology Association
httpforecastingaemocomau
Exports
Residential amp Commercial
Industrial
Electricity generation
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Renewables New capacity
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaergovausystemfilesAER20State20of20the20energy20market20201720-20A4pdf
Coal closing
Nearly all renewables since 2012
Rooftop solar 6000 MW (Not shown on chart)
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Wherersquos the plan
Alternative Technology Association
The NEM has no coordinated long-term plan
bull Power stations can close without notice
bull Market forces are expected to incentivise companies to invest
bull AEMO produces ldquoStatement of opportunitiesrdquo
bull Climate policies are disjointed add-ons
bull Changes to market rules can take years
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Renewables accelerating
Alternative Technology Association
bull In 2017 another 4100 megawatts of wind and solar farms will be under construction or completed Plus rooftop solar
bull Cheaper than coal and gas and costs reducing further according to many sources inc AGL
bull Little incentive for companies to add energy storage or services for grid stability
httpswwwcleanenergycouncilorgaunews2017May2billion-renewable-energy-investment-2017-unprecedentedhtml httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Whorsquos running the show Tough to answer that
Alternative Technology Association
httpwww2pvunsweduauvideosPenelope-Crossley-3September2015slidesCrossley-NEM-presentationpdf
Plus commercial companies
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Alan Finkel on planning
Alternative Technology Association
A long-term integrated grid plan is required ldquo
The lack of a transparent credible and enduring emissions reduction mechanism for the electricity sector is now the key threat to system reliability
In future there may be merit in the creation of a single national transmission planner with a whole-of-system focusrdquo
httpwwwenvironmentgovauenergypublicationselectricity-market-final-report
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Whatrsquos the future hold
Alternative Technology Association
bull We expect more turbulence
ndash Until the politicians cooperate on a proper plan
bull Electricity prices may moderate as more wind and solar is built
bull Then may increase again when the next coal-fired power station closes
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Renewable Energy Opportunities for farms etc
Alternative Technology Association
Costs have dropped fast for solar panels and large wind turbines
Many opportunities eg
bull Dedicated solar water pumping for irrigation
bull Grid-connect solar to cut electricity bills ndash Eg food processing
bull Off-grid solar system for buildings
bull Heat for greenhouses
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Vic winery river up to dam No grid nearby
bull NEW 30 megalitres per year 100m head
ndash Only allowed to pump 8 months of the year
bull 20 kW (27 HP) electric pump 100mm pipe
bull Solar system rated at 40 kW (~150 panels)
bull Special pump controller but no batteries
ndash Variable Frequency Drive
bull Total cost to winery ~ $150k
bull Ongoing costs are minimal
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
Qld peanut farmer centre-pivot irrigation
NSW cotton farm
70 kW Solar
Cut diesel bill 60
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Solar water pumping
Alternative Technology Association
WA centre pivot
Over 400 panels
Cost $300k
Eliminates diesel cost
lt 5 year payback
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull Analyse consumption from smart meter
bull Estimate electricity bill savings from solar
bull Feed-in tariffs are now decent 113 c
bull Need approval to connect (eg Powercor)
Vic potato farmer
~ 90 kW solar 200 HP pump cool store packing sheds
Electricity bills halved
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
bull WArsquos largest pork producer
bull Already has 360 kW solar cutting bills 15
bull Adding 18 MW wind generation
bull Adding batteries
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Grid-connect solar cut bills
Alternative Technology Association
Aboriginal community in WA
bull 30 kW solar
bull Financed via loan for 5 years
bull All household bills reduced ~ 20
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Need many panels compared to grid-connect
Need big batteries and generator for backup
Example of costs
bull Household using 10 kWh per day (low-ish)
bull Not compromising lifestyle
bull $50k for whole system
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Off-grid for buildings
Alternative Technology Association
Trust For Nature station near Mildura
Upgrade from previous system Total cost $75k
bull Batteries rated 62 kWh
bull 50 panels (13 kW)
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
Sundrop farms in SA tomatoes for Coles
bull Solar tower collects solar heat
bull $200 million build
bull Support from CEFC
bull 23000 mirrors
bull 39000 kW power
bull Desalinates water
bull Heat greenhouses
bull 15000 tonnesyr
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Heat for greenhouses
Alternative Technology Association
40 hectares of glasshouse near Stawell
bull Paired with new 63-turbine wind farm next door
bull Hydroponic vegetables for Costa Group
bull 34000 kWh batteries
bull $220 million build
bull Vic govt support
bull Heat greenhouse using heat pumps (like reverse cycle AC)
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
What should households do
Alternative Technology Association
bull Expect more turbulence in the absence of political miracles
bull Shop around for good energy plan
bull Rooftop solar is very worth it bigger is better
ndash Batteries still for early-adopters (for now)
bull Plan for appliance replacement amp electric cars
ndash Gas is no longer a cheap option
ndash Cheapest heating option is a split-system aircon
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
What about other options
Alternative Technology Association
bull Saving electricity is often cheaper than generating it
bull Energy efficiency includes ndash Insulation
ndash Draft sealing
ndash LED lights
ndash Window shading
ndash Double glazing
ndash Efficient appliances
ndash etc
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Questions
Alternative Technology Association
Andrew Reddaway
Energy Analyst
andrewataorgau
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Is ldquonew coalrdquo realistic
Alternative Technology Association
bull A coal-fired station is a big long-term project
bull Needs to run for decades to pay itself back
bull Involves high risk
ndash Future environmental policies
ndash Competition from future renewables
ndash Resistance from local communities
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Who would build new coal
Alternative Technology Association
Engie CEO ldquoWe will build no new coal fired power stationsrdquo
CS Energy Chief Executive ldquoIt would surprise me greatly if there were ever any more coal-fired technology built in Australiardquo
AGL CEO We do not believe that new coal plants are going to be the lowest cost options in the marketldquo
Energy Australia CEO ldquoIts not really on our agenda to build new coal (plant)
httpwwwlefigarofrsocietes2015101420005-20151014ARTFIG00267-pourquoi-engie-renonce-a-se-developper-dans-le-charbonphp httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-02-16coal-power-generator-says-new-plants-not-viable8277210 httpwwwabcnetaunews2017-06-21solar-wind-preferred-over-govt-coal-energy-plans-by-agl-ceo8639992 httpwwwafrcomnewsagl-energys-andy-vesey-says-coal-investment-doesnt-add-up-20170620-gwv2fq
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
A 100 renewable grid
Alternative Technology Association
bull Multiple studies have found itrsquos feasible Need
ndash Energy storage to cover calm cloudy periods
ndash More transmission lines to share energy around the NEM
bull Massive long-term project
bull Cost-benefit looks good over the long term
BZE 2010
CSIRO 2012
For more details and analysis see httpwwwataorgauwp-contentgeneralOne_Hundred_Percent_Renewable_Gridpdf httpwwwenergynetworkscomauelectricity-network-transformation-roadmap httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf
UTS 2016
ENA amp CSIRO 2016
ANU 2017
AEMO 2013
UNSW 2013
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
AGL CFO on renewables
Alternative Technology Association
ldquoBig renewables plus big storage will dominate our energy landscaperdquo
ldquoTransition will be from big coal to big renewables skipping big baseload gasrdquo
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
The best plan so far
Alternative Technology Association
The ANU plan stores energy using oversized farm dams in hilly sheep paddocks
bull Much cheaper than batteries
bull Say 200 dams along dividing range and in SA
bull Storage = 21 hours of average NEM demand ndash 14 hours of peak demand
bull Pumps and turbines help stabilise the grid too
bull Generation capacity ~2 times peak NEM demand
httpenergyanueduaufiles1002520renewable20electricity20in20Australiapdf Includes detailed simulation engineering and cost analysis
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Cost of electricity from new generators
Alternative Technology Association
httpswwwaglcomau-mediaDLSAbout-AGLDocumentsInvestor-CentrePresentation-and-speech----A-future-of-storable-renewable-energypdfla=enamphash=79A44C65B8D4D1469B8AD04B9C61CAA64C9CD117
Gas Gas Coal Coal Wind Solar
Even if you add energy storage etc wind amp solar are already competitive with coal
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Whatrsquos going on in SA
Alternative Technology Association
bull Renewables driven by federal subsidy (RET)
bull Concentrated in SA because of
ndash Historically high electricity prices
ndash Great wind resources
bull Reached 40 renewable without good plan
ndash All players must share some blame
bull Private companies have no incentive to rectify
bull State govt was forced to intervene
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
How about the blackout
Alternative Technology Association
bull Grid massively stressed due to super-storm
bull AEMO relied too much on wind farms and interconnector (transmission lines from Vic)
bull Some wind farms had software setting AEMO didnrsquot know about
bull Those wind farms shut down (others OK)
bull Interconnector overloaded -gt blackout
bull Software was rectified soon afterwards
httpswwwaemocomau-mediaFilesElectricityNEMMarket_Notices_and_EventsPower_System_Incident_Reports2017Integrated-Final-Report-SA-Black-System-28-September-2016pdf
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Go with Finkel
Alternative Technology Association
bull In the ATArsquos view the Chief Scientistrsquos blueprint is
ndash Not perfect
ndash Provides a useful framework
ndash Much better than current arrangements
bull The key is to develop a credible plan and follow it
bull Politics is a major problem
httpcommunityataorgaunewsata-analysis-of-finkel-review
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Require renewables to have storage
Alternative Technology Association
bull There are probably better ways to build energy storage into the grid but
ndash They would require big market reform
ndash Would take a long time to implement
bull The storage amount should be case-by-case
ndash Some states donrsquot yet need energy storage
ndash AEMO should determine whatrsquos required
bull Storage doesnrsquot have to be on-site
ndash Can contract with off-site energy storage
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Off-grid microgrids etc
Alternative Technology Association
bull The grid is a great resource to share cheap renewable energy
bull It makes sense for some towns to go off-grid
ndash Eg at the end of an expensive blackout-prone line
bull For households if the grid is available going off-grid is expensive and has downsides
ndash Excess solar on sunny days is wasted
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
Resources
Alternative Technology Association
bull httpwwwataorgauata-researchbigger-solar-is-better
bull httpwwwsanctuarymagazineorgauideas-advicequit-grid
bull httpreneworgauphotovoltaicsjust-add-batteries
bull httpwwwataorgaunewsare-we-still-cooking-with-gas
